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signal-platform/reports/backtest-20260712-sr-gate-ablation-treatment.json
T
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 85b3ef618f Research: S/R levels, the target exit, and the entry gate 
Investigated whether our support/resistance detection follows best practice
and whether we actually use it that way. Three findings, all backed by runs
against the prod snapshot and written up in docs/research/sr-levels-and-exits.md:

- The S/R target must NOT become an exit. Honoring it as a take-profit on top
  of the 3x ATR trail drops Sharpe 2.04 -> 1.47 and halves CAGR. Win rate rises
  (37.5% -> 40.0%), which is the tell: it truncates the right tail where
  momentum's edge lives.
- The clear-air fallback (synthesize a 3xATR target where no resistance exists,
  so 52-week-high breakouts stop being vetoed) looked strictly better in-sample
  (Sharpe 2.04 -> 2.07, CAGR 50.4% -> 62.3%, DD 21.4% -> 20.1%) but FAILED a
  real out-of-sample holdout: on entries after 2024-07-01 it is worse on Sharpe
  (2.78 -> 2.45) and Calmar, better only on raw CAGR. Not shipped.
- The detector itself is weak vs best practice (POC/VAH/VAL computed then
  discarded, HVN = any above-mean bin, 1.48x volume double-counting, "touch"
  counts pass-throughs, no round numbers), but its only causal path to P&L is
  the entry gate. Fix it for the displayed levels, not for returns.

Method note: nested lookback windows are NOT out-of-sample. The in-sample result
was clean, large, and consistent across five windows, and still did not survive
a proper entry-date split.

All research paths are off by default and the default report is unchanged:
  BACKTEST_RESEARCH_EXITS=1        take-profit exit rows
  BACKTEST_ATR_TARGET_FALLBACK=k   synthetic k*ATR target when S/R offers none
  BACKTEST_FALLBACK_CLEAR_AIR_ONLY=1  restrict that to genuinely clear air
  BACKTEST_HOLDOUT_SPLIT=YYYY-MM-DD   train/test split by entry date

Also fixes two reproducibility holes found while reconciling our local baseline
against the live report:

- create_backtest_snapshot.py now copies paper_% settings. The production
  monitor row replays the runtime exit policy via get_exit_policy(); without
  those keys a snapshot silently falls back to code defaults, so a live-tuned
  exit would never be reflected.
- Migration 020 drops activation_min_expected_value and
  activation_min_target_probability. Both are orphans of the June EV-gate
  redesign, read by no code path, but prod carries min_target_probability = 50.0
  which implies a probability floor that is not enforced (the real floor is the
  20% constant in qualification.py).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-12 15:05:34 +02:00

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],
"note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
},
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"year": 2025,
"return_pct": 29.4
},
{
"year": 2026,
"return_pct": 66.6
}
],
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"end_date": "2026-07-02"
},
{
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"label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
"description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
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"cagr_pct": 56.8,
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"win_rate": 37.7,
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"exit_reasons": {
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"stop": 195,
"time": 133
},
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"spy_return_pct": 95.7,
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{
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"return_pct": -1.4
},
{
"year": 2023,
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{
"year": 2024,
"return_pct": 113.4
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{
"year": 2025,
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{
"year": 2026,
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}
],
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"end_date": "2026-07-02"
},
{
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"stop": 212,
"time": 137
},
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{
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{
"year": 2024,
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{
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{
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],
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},
{
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"time": 158
},
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{
"year": 2022,
"return_pct": 6.3
},
{
"year": 2023,
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},
{
"year": 2024,
"return_pct": 106.6
},
{
"year": 2025,
"return_pct": 29.4
},
{
"year": 2026,
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}
],
"start_date": "2022-06-28",
"end_date": "2026-07-02"
},
{
"entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
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"label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
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"starting_capital": 10000.0,
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"sharpe": 1.82,
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"stop": 176,
"time": 90,
"trailing_stop": 138
},
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"spy_return_pct": 95.7,
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{
"year": 2022,
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},
{
"year": 2023,
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},
{
"year": 2024,
"return_pct": 110.3
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{
"year": 2025,
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},
{
"year": 2026,
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}
],
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}
],
"note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
},
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{
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},
{
"strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
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},
{
"strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
"label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
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"is_production": true
}
],
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{
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{
"lookback": "1y",
"label": "1 year"
},
{
"lookback": "3y",
"label": "3 years"
},
{
"lookback": "5y",
"label": "5 years"
},
{
"lookback": "all",
"label": "All history"
}
],
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{
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{
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],
"start_date": "2025-12-31",
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{
"date": "2025-12-31",
"equity": 10000.0,
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{
"date": "2026-01-02",
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{
"date": "2026-01-05",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"date": "2026-06-05",
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{
"date": "2026-06-08",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"date": "2026-07-02",
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"return_pct": 80.67
},
{
"date": "2026-01-06",
"equity": 18174.44,
"return_pct": 81.74
},
{
"date": "2026-01-07",
"equity": 18115.85,
"return_pct": 81.16
},
{
"date": "2026-01-08",
"equity": 18114.02,
"return_pct": 81.14
},
{
"date": "2026-01-09",
"equity": 18233.81,
"return_pct": 82.34
},
{
"date": "2026-01-12",
"equity": 18262.45,
"return_pct": 82.62
},
{
"date": "2026-01-13",
"equity": 18225.93,
"return_pct": 82.26
},
{
"date": "2026-01-14",
"equity": 18136.35,
"return_pct": 81.36
},
{
"date": "2026-01-15",
"equity": 18185.73,
"return_pct": 81.86
},
{
"date": "2026-01-16",
"equity": 18170.5,
"return_pct": 81.7
},
{
"date": "2026-01-20",
"equity": 17800.6,
"return_pct": 78.01
},
{
"date": "2026-01-21",
"equity": 18006.04,
"return_pct": 80.06
},
{
"date": "2026-01-22",
"equity": 18100.09,
"return_pct": 81.0
},
{
"date": "2026-01-23",
"equity": 18106.66,
"return_pct": 81.07
},
{
"date": "2026-01-26",
"equity": 18198.61,
"return_pct": 81.99
},
{
"date": "2026-01-27",
"equity": 18271.12,
"return_pct": 82.71
},
{
"date": "2026-01-28",
"equity": 18269.28,
"return_pct": 82.69
},
{
"date": "2026-01-29",
"equity": 18233.02,
"return_pct": 82.33
},
{
"date": "2026-01-30",
"equity": 18178.64,
"return_pct": 81.79
},
{
"date": "2026-02-02",
"equity": 18269.01,
"return_pct": 82.69
},
{
"date": "2026-02-03",
"equity": 18114.54,
"return_pct": 81.15
},
{
"date": "2026-02-04",
"equity": 18026.8,
"return_pct": 80.27
},
{
"date": "2026-02-05",
"equity": 17801.66,
"return_pct": 78.02
},
{
"date": "2026-02-06",
"equity": 18143.18,
"return_pct": 81.43
},
{
"date": "2026-02-09",
"equity": 18230.66,
"return_pct": 82.31
},
{
"date": "2026-02-10",
"equity": 18182.58,
"return_pct": 81.83
},
{
"date": "2026-02-11",
"equity": 18178.38,
"return_pct": 81.78
},
{
"date": "2026-02-12",
"equity": 17897.54,
"return_pct": 78.98
},
{
"date": "2026-02-13",
"equity": 17910.15,
"return_pct": 79.1
},
{
"date": "2026-02-17",
"equity": 17939.05,
"return_pct": 79.39
},
{
"date": "2026-02-18",
"equity": 18029.42,
"return_pct": 80.29
},
{
"date": "2026-02-19",
"equity": 17981.87,
"return_pct": 79.82
},
{
"date": "2026-02-20",
"equity": 18111.91,
"return_pct": 81.12
},
{
"date": "2026-02-23",
"equity": 17926.97,
"return_pct": 79.27
},
{
"date": "2026-02-24",
"equity": 18057.27,
"return_pct": 80.57
},
{
"date": "2026-02-25",
"equity": 18209.64,
"return_pct": 82.1
},
{
"date": "2026-02-26",
"equity": 18108.5,
"return_pct": 81.08
},
{
"date": "2026-02-27",
"equity": 18021.54,
"return_pct": 80.22
},
{
"date": "2026-03-02",
"equity": 18031.79,
"return_pct": 80.32
},
{
"date": "2026-03-03",
"equity": 17872.85,
"return_pct": 78.73
},
{
"date": "2026-03-04",
"equity": 17998.95,
"return_pct": 79.99
},
{
"date": "2026-03-05",
"equity": 17898.59,
"return_pct": 78.99
},
{
"date": "2026-03-06",
"equity": 17664.0,
"return_pct": 76.64
},
{
"date": "2026-03-09",
"equity": 17818.73,
"return_pct": 78.19
},
{
"date": "2026-03-10",
"equity": 17790.1,
"return_pct": 77.9
},
{
"date": "2026-03-11",
"equity": 17767.77,
"return_pct": 77.68
},
{
"date": "2026-03-12",
"equity": 17497.96,
"return_pct": 74.98
},
{
"date": "2026-03-13",
"equity": 17398.92,
"return_pct": 73.99
},
{
"date": "2026-03-16",
"equity": 17575.99,
"return_pct": 75.76
},
{
"date": "2026-03-17",
"equity": 17622.23,
"return_pct": 76.22
},
{
"date": "2026-03-18",
"equity": 17376.33,
"return_pct": 73.76
},
{
"date": "2026-03-19",
"equity": 17333.51,
"return_pct": 73.34
},
{
"date": "2026-03-20",
"equity": 17038.49,
"return_pct": 70.38
},
{
"date": "2026-03-23",
"equity": 17217.39,
"return_pct": 72.17
},
{
"date": "2026-03-24",
"equity": 17159.6,
"return_pct": 71.6
},
{
"date": "2026-03-25",
"equity": 17255.22,
"return_pct": 72.55
},
{
"date": "2026-03-26",
"equity": 16947.06,
"return_pct": 69.47
},
{
"date": "2026-03-27",
"equity": 16658.08,
"return_pct": 66.58
},
{
"date": "2026-03-30",
"equity": 16602.39,
"return_pct": 66.02
},
{
"date": "2026-03-31",
"equity": 17084.99,
"return_pct": 70.85
},
{
"date": "2026-04-01",
"equity": 17213.71,
"return_pct": 72.14
},
{
"date": "2026-04-02",
"equity": 17229.21,
"return_pct": 72.29
},
{
"date": "2026-04-06",
"equity": 17310.65,
"return_pct": 73.11
},
{
"date": "2026-04-07",
"equity": 17318.27,
"return_pct": 73.18
},
{
"date": "2026-04-08",
"equity": 17759.36,
"return_pct": 77.59
},
{
"date": "2026-04-09",
"equity": 17861.82,
"return_pct": 78.62
},
{
"date": "2026-04-10",
"equity": 17849.99,
"return_pct": 78.5
},
{
"date": "2026-04-13",
"equity": 18024.43,
"return_pct": 80.24
},
{
"date": "2026-04-14",
"equity": 18244.06,
"return_pct": 82.44
},
{
"date": "2026-04-15",
"equity": 18388.02,
"return_pct": 83.88
},
{
"date": "2026-04-16",
"equity": 18433.21,
"return_pct": 84.33
},
{
"date": "2026-04-17",
"equity": 18655.98,
"return_pct": 86.56
},
{
"date": "2026-04-20",
"equity": 18618.68,
"return_pct": 86.19
},
{
"date": "2026-04-21",
"equity": 18496.78,
"return_pct": 84.97
},
{
"date": "2026-04-22",
"equity": 18684.09,
"return_pct": 86.84
},
{
"date": "2026-04-23",
"equity": 18611.59,
"return_pct": 86.12
},
{
"date": "2026-04-24",
"equity": 18755.81,
"return_pct": 87.56
},
{
"date": "2026-04-27",
"equity": 18788.13,
"return_pct": 87.88
},
{
"date": "2026-04-28",
"equity": 18696.7,
"return_pct": 86.97
},
{
"date": "2026-04-29",
"equity": 18693.81,
"return_pct": 86.94
},
{
"date": "2026-04-30",
"equity": 18879.81,
"return_pct": 88.8
},
{
"date": "2026-05-01",
"equity": 18932.09,
"return_pct": 89.32
},
{
"date": "2026-05-04",
"equity": 18862.73,
"return_pct": 88.63
},
{
"date": "2026-05-05",
"equity": 19014.05,
"return_pct": 90.14
},
{
"date": "2026-05-06",
"equity": 19278.34,
"return_pct": 92.78
},
{
"date": "2026-05-07",
"equity": 19219.23,
"return_pct": 92.19
},
{
"date": "2026-05-08",
"equity": 19377.91,
"return_pct": 93.78
},
{
"date": "2026-05-11",
"equity": 19422.04,
"return_pct": 94.22
},
{
"date": "2026-05-12",
"equity": 19392.62,
"return_pct": 93.93
},
{
"date": "2026-05-13",
"equity": 19501.12,
"return_pct": 95.01
},
{
"date": "2026-05-14",
"equity": 19655.06,
"return_pct": 96.55
},
{
"date": "2026-05-15",
"equity": 19418.63,
"return_pct": 94.19
},
{
"date": "2026-05-18",
"equity": 19404.97,
"return_pct": 94.05
},
{
"date": "2026-05-19",
"equity": 19275.71,
"return_pct": 92.76
},
{
"date": "2026-05-20",
"equity": 19473.27,
"return_pct": 94.73
},
{
"date": "2026-05-21",
"equity": 19511.89,
"return_pct": 95.12
},
{
"date": "2026-05-22",
"equity": 19588.6,
"return_pct": 95.89
},
{
"date": "2026-05-26",
"equity": 19718.64,
"return_pct": 97.19
},
{
"date": "2026-05-27",
"equity": 19715.22,
"return_pct": 97.15
},
{
"date": "2026-05-28",
"equity": 19823.99,
"return_pct": 98.24
},
{
"date": "2026-05-29",
"equity": 19873.37,
"return_pct": 98.73
},
{
"date": "2026-06-01",
"equity": 19927.49,
"return_pct": 99.27
},
{
"date": "2026-06-02",
"equity": 19954.55,
"return_pct": 99.55
},
{
"date": "2026-06-03",
"equity": 19814.53,
"return_pct": 98.15
},
{
"date": "2026-06-04",
"equity": 19889.4,
"return_pct": 98.89
},
{
"date": "2026-06-05",
"equity": 19376.07,
"return_pct": 93.76
},
{
"date": "2026-06-08",
"equity": 19419.94,
"return_pct": 94.2
},
{
"date": "2026-06-09",
"equity": 19362.93,
"return_pct": 93.63
},
{
"date": "2026-06-10",
"equity": 19057.66,
"return_pct": 90.58
},
{
"date": "2026-06-11",
"equity": 19381.58,
"return_pct": 93.82
},
{
"date": "2026-06-12",
"equity": 19486.4,
"return_pct": 94.86
},
{
"date": "2026-06-15",
"equity": 19830.03,
"return_pct": 98.3
},
{
"date": "2026-06-16",
"equity": 19711.81,
"return_pct": 97.12
},
{
"date": "2026-06-17",
"equity": 19465.65,
"return_pct": 94.66
},
{
"date": "2026-06-18",
"equity": 19617.5,
"return_pct": 96.17
},
{
"date": "2026-06-22",
"equity": 19555.76,
"return_pct": 95.56
},
{
"date": "2026-06-23",
"equity": 19271.77,
"return_pct": 92.72
},
{
"date": "2026-06-24",
"equity": 19262.84,
"return_pct": 92.63
},
{
"date": "2026-06-25",
"equity": 19290.69,
"return_pct": 92.91
},
{
"date": "2026-06-26",
"equity": 19151.19,
"return_pct": 91.51
},
{
"date": "2026-06-29",
"equity": 19466.7,
"return_pct": 94.67
},
{
"date": "2026-06-30",
"equity": 19618.28,
"return_pct": 96.18
},
{
"date": "2026-07-01",
"equity": 19591.75,
"return_pct": 95.92
},
{
"date": "2026-07-02",
"equity": 19566.01,
"return_pct": 95.66
}
]
}
],
"note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
},
"signal_eval": [
{
"signal": "vol_6m",
"weeks": 39,
"avg_cross_section": 498.2,
"mean_ic": 0.0609,
"ic_t_stat": 1.48,
"ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
"weeks": 35,
"avg_cross_section": 497.7,
"mean_ic": 0.0552,
"ic_t_stat": 1.98,
"ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "mom_12_1",
"weeks": 35,
"avg_cross_section": 497.7,
"mean_ic": 0.0531,
"ic_t_stat": 1.61,
"ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "trend_200",
"weeks": 37,
"avg_cross_section": 497.9,
"mean_ic": 0.0161,
"ic_t_stat": 0.44,
"ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "reversal_1m",
"weeks": 43,
"avg_cross_section": 498.7,
"mean_ic": 0.0059,
"ic_t_stat": 0.22,
"ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "mom_6_1",
"weeks": 39,
"avg_cross_section": 498.2,
"mean_ic": 0.0051,
"ic_t_stat": 0.21,
"ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "mom_3_1",
"weeks": 42,
"avg_cross_section": 498.5,
"mean_ic": -0.0064,
"ic_t_stat": -0.25,
"ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
"mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
"reliable": true
},
{
"signal": "high_52w",
"weeks": 35,
"avg_cross_section": 497.7,
"mean_ic": -0.0086,
"ic_t_stat": -0.26,
"ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
"mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
"reliable": true
}
],
"signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
"note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
"recommendation": {
"headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
"items": [
{
"topic": "production",
"text": "Production monitor (All history): +58.6% CAGR, Sharpe 1.82, max drawdown -21.0%."
},
{
"topic": "exit",
"text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.28R net/trade vs +0.02R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +51.5% vs +22.2% CAGR at similar drawdown."
},
{
"topic": "gate",
"text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 654 trades."
},
{
"topic": "gate",
"text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.04R/trade under the hold exit)."
},
{
"topic": "gate",
"text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.04R/trade and adds 2029 trades."
},
{
"topic": "cutoff",
"text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.06R over 2147 setups)."
},
{
"topic": "benchmark",
"text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +333.9 points (+429.6% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221225.6%."
},
{
"topic": "robustness",
"text": "Robustness WARNING: without the top 5% of winners the edge disappears (-0.13R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 outlier-dependent, treat the headline expectancy with caution."
}
],
"note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
},
"research_recommendation": {
"items": [
{
"topic": "capacity_15",
"candidate": false,
"text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.61 vs 1.61, CAGR +51.5% vs +51.5%, skipped 0 vs 106."
},
{
"topic": "cutoff_90",
"candidate": false,
"text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.61, drawdown 21.0% vs 25.6%, CAGR +49.3% vs +51.5%."
},
{
"topic": "low_vol_overlay",
"candidate": false,
"text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 0.23 vs 1.61, drawdown 14.6% vs 25.6%, CAGR +1.9% vs +51.5%."
},
{
"topic": "high_vol_overlay",
"candidate": true,
"text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.90 vs 1.61, drawdown 22.5% vs 25.6%, CAGR +65.0% vs +51.5%."
}
],
"note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
}
}
Reference in New Issue View Git Blame Copy Permalink