dennisthiessen
2311999e57
Log the 21:14 orphan as a snapshot-build race, rewrite the context table to authoritative ICs only, and soften the vol-tilt warning. Add extender completion manifest + breadth refuse guard; strip intermediate/orphaned reports; park the thread (no book sim, no deploy).
64 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
64 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
# Backtest report index
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Reports dated 2026-07-11 or earlier are the historical production research
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record and remain untouched.
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The completed 2026-07-12/13 S/R and Gate Target Ladder research is preserved as
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compact decision evidence instead of full per-arm replay output:
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- `sr-v2-validation-comparison.json` and `sr-v2-validation-cohorts.csv` record
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the held-out detector comparison.
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- `sr-full-production-vs-candidate-comparison.json` and its cohort CSV record
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the full-period clean-structure replacement decision.
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- `sr-explicit-target-ladder-comparison.json` and its cohort CSV record exact
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GTL parity: 202,765 candidates, 1,086 qualified setups, 321 book trades,
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Sharpe 2.03, CAGR 50.0%, and max drawdown 21.4% in both arms.
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- The three `backtest-20260713-gtl-*.json/.md` pairs record the tuning,
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confirmation, and strength-sensitivity decisions. No stable improvement was
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found, so the production GTL stayed frozen.
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The large `backtest-sr-*.json` replay files were removed after consolidation.
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They duplicated hundreds of thousands of candidate rows while adding no
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decision information beyond the compact comparisons and the narrative in
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`docs/research/sr-levels-and-exits.md`. The original raw files remain available
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in Git history if a forensic reconstruction is ever necessary.
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The initial untracked `backtest-20260712-sr-detector-rewrite.json` is local-only
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and is intentionally not part of the repository.
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The 2026-07-17 post-stop re-entry decision is preserved in
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`daily_reentry_matrix.json`. It is the canonical source for the nine-policy
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daily replay, production-like full-universe ranking, the disjoint 2025+ book,
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and the cost/capacity sensitivity matrix. The interpretation and production
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decision live in
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[`docs/research/post-stop-reentry.md`](../docs/research/post-stop-reentry.md).
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The earlier `post-stop-reentry-20260717.json`,
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`post-stop-cooldown-sweep-20260717.json`, and
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`gate-protected-stop-20260717.json` reports were removed as superseded
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intermediate experiments. They used weekly/hybrid entry cadence or tested the
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rejected stop-adjustment path, and add no decision evidence beyond the final
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daily matrix and narrative. Their matching one-off runners were removed too.
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All remain recoverable from Git history. Rebuildable candidate pickle caches
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are intentionally ignored and must not be committed.
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### Phase B fip breadth IC (2026-07-18/19) — compact evidence
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Canonical artifacts:
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- `fip-reconcile-20260719-000520.json` — single-sourced authoritative ICs
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(unconditional liquid fip, tiers, prod-subset, mom-conditional, context
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signals). Membership symbol dumps stripped after the decision; narrative in
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[`docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md`](../docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md).
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- `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-fingerprint.json` — prod-snapshot fingerprint
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pass (fip IC −0.045 / t −2.91).
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Removed as superseded / dangerous intermediate noise (recoverable from Git):
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- `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json` (+ wrapper) — **orphaned** +0.0575
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/ t +5.12 from racing a partial `research.sqlite`. Kept out of the tree so it
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cannot be re-mythologized.
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- `fip-breadth-20260718-194828*.json` — fingerprint-only partial run.
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- `fip-breadth-diagnostics-20260718-213705.json` and `…-213908.json` — dual-path
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diagnostics superseded by the single-sourced reconcile.
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