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signal-platform/reports/portfolio-construction-prod505-capacity-bracket-daily-v1.md
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2026-08-05 21:39:29 +02:00

4.9 KiB

Focused daily portfolio-capacity matrix

Generated: 2026-08-05T19:25:17.150472+00:00

Question

The current daily Phase A control admitted 472 trades and rejected 519 qualified opportunities because the ten-slot book was full. This run brackets the economic cost of that binding constraint; it has no formal promotion gate.

Universe caveat: today's production membership is projected backward. Use paired arm-versus-control differences, not absolute profitability, for construction conclusions.

Validated universes

  • Tradable setup symbols with prices: 505.
  • Rank-only symbols with prices: 4149.
  • Full ranking symbols with prices: 4654.
  • Tradable qualified longs: 6118.
  • Rank-only qualified rows removed: 136286.

Paired annual medians

Empty Book — 0.10% per fill

Arm ΔEV net R 90% context ΔCalmar 90% context
cap10_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.000]
cash_unbounded 0.044 [-0.011, 0.060] 0.030 [-0.030, 0.120]
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 [-0.091, 0.000] 0.000 [-0.260, 0.000]
cap15_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.011] 0.000 [0.000, 0.130]
Arm ΔPF ΔGain-to-Pain ΔSortino ΔCAGR pp ΔMaxDD pp
cap10_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cash_unbounded 0.079 0.047 -0.013 1.350 0.000
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cap15_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Warm Book — 0.10% per fill

Arm ΔEV net R 90% context ΔCalmar 90% context
cap10_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.000]
cash_unbounded 0.034 [-0.014, 0.100] 0.050 [-0.160, 0.250]
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 [-0.158, 0.065] 0.000 [-0.200, 0.330]
cap15_incumbent 0.000 [-0.006, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.180]
Arm ΔPF ΔGain-to-Pain ΔSortino ΔCAGR pp ΔMaxDD pp
cap10_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cash_unbounded 0.062 0.085 -0.004 2.200 0.400
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 0.012 0.018 0.300 0.000
cap15_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Empty Book — 0.20% per fill

Arm ΔEV net R 90% context ΔCalmar 90% context
cap10_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.000]
cash_unbounded 0.041 [-0.010, 0.052] 0.030 [-0.015, 0.100]
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 [-0.090, 0.000] 0.000 [-0.260, 0.000]
cap15_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.010] 0.000 [0.000, 0.110]
Arm ΔPF ΔGain-to-Pain ΔSortino ΔCAGR pp ΔMaxDD pp
cap10_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cash_unbounded 0.066 0.035 -0.014 0.900 0.000
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cap15_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Warm Book — 0.20% per fill

Arm ΔEV net R 90% context ΔCalmar 90% context
cap10_incumbent 0.000 [0.000, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.000]
cash_unbounded 0.034 [-0.022, 0.102] 0.040 [-0.130, 0.230]
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 [-0.158, 0.065] 0.000 [-0.190, 0.310]
cap15_incumbent 0.000 [-0.006, 0.000] 0.000 [0.000, 0.170]
Arm ΔPF ΔGain-to-Pain ΔSortino ΔCAGR pp ΔMaxDD pp
cap10_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
cash_unbounded 0.060 0.083 -0.003 2.100 0.300
cap10_weekly_top10 0.000 0.017 0.020 0.300 0.000
cap15_incumbent 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Warm-seed initialization dispersion

Arm Cost/fill Median EV IQR ratio Median Calmar IQR ratio
cap10_incumbent 0.10% 1.000 1.000
cash_unbounded 0.10% 1.000 1.000
cap10_weekly_top10 0.10% 1.000 1.000
cap15_incumbent 0.10% 1.000 1.000
cap10_incumbent 0.20% 1.000 1.000
cash_unbounded 0.20% 1.000 1.000
cap10_weekly_top10 0.20% 1.000 1.000
cap15_incumbent 0.20% 1.000 1.000

Capacity and operations — 0.10% per fill

Arm Median trades Median blocked Median positions Peak Turnover Min-risk rejects
cap10_incumbent 76.0 21.6% 4.98 10 26.36 0
cash_unbounded 74.0 0.0% 4.82 12 26.76 85517
cap10_weekly_top10 88.0 18.1% 5.13 10 28.44 0
cap15_incumbent 79.0 0.0% 5.15 12 27.32 0

Weekly-ranking opportunity set

  • Median fresh entrant pool: 0.0.
  • Median zero-entrant fraction: 0.558.
  • Replacements across reported paths: 2170.
  • Same-symbol re-entries within 10 sessions: 529.

Bootstrap intervals above resample seven annual summaries and are descriptive context only. They are not gates or independent-population confidence claims.