199 lines
9.0 KiB
Markdown
199 lines
9.0 KiB
Markdown
# History-depth extension (Tier-1 alpha research)
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**Status:** sector-resid deep test **FAIL** — see supersession section. PENDING_HUMAN beyond PASS/FAIL.
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**Branch:** `research/earnings-gap-and-sue` (MacBook commit `f6e0ca7`)
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**Superseded artifact (do not cite):** `reports/history-depth-20260719-103315.json` — **UNMASKED, TWO-TIER SNAPSHOT**
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**Production impact:** none. **Do not retune any production knob on deep history.**
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---
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## Pre-registration (locked before rebuild)
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### Motivation
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All current conclusions rest on ~35 non-overlapping weekly windows in essentially
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one post-2021 regime. Extending history toward max Alpaca daily-bar depth adds
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the 2018 vol shock and full 2020 crash (where the feed allows).
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### Protocol
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1. **Empirical coverage first** — bars per calendar year per symbol; document
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where the feed thins out. Do **not** assume a uniform start date.
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2. **Rebuild the research snapshot completely** from prod source + max history
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per symbol (`Adjustment.SPLIT`, ~200 req/min pacing via existing extender).
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3. **Race guard (rule 6)** — refuse analysis until completion manifest is
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`complete=true` and live counts match.
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4. **Re-run full signal harness** (all existing signals incl. sector residual /
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SUE if present) on the extended window.
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5. **Report per signal:** mean IC, t, window count, and **era split**
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(pre-/post-2021) — diagnostic only, **not a tuning input**.
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6. **Log prominently:** survivorship bias grows with depth (today’s constituents
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backfilled). Absolute Sharpe/CAGR on deep history is optimistic; payload is
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**relative** signal comparisons and IC stability, not levels.
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7. **Do not retune** production knobs. If a knob’s confirmation looks
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overturned on deep history → report only; human decides.
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### Success / interpretation (not promotion of a new signal)
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| outcome | meaning |
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| Sector residual still ≥ market residual on deep IC + stable sign | strengthens Task 1 PROMOTE case |
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| Sector residual collapses pre-2021 | **PARK** Task 1 wire-in |
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| SUE remains weak after full earnings + depth | **DEAD** SUE for this stack |
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| Any production knob looks worse deep | report; no auto-retune |
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---
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## Data provenance
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| check | result |
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| Snapshot | MacBook `research.sqlite` |
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| Manifest `complete` | **true** (finished 2026-07-19T08:19Z) |
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| Live counts match | yes — 4655 tickers / 6,609,926 OHLCV / 4149 rank_only |
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| `history_days` | 5000 |
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| fetch_ok / fail | 4152 / 0 |
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| Race guard | **pass** |
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> **SURVIVORSHIP BIAS:** today’s constituents backfilled historically. Absolute
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> Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use **relative** signal IC
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> comparisons and era stability only — not levels.
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**Coverage JSON was empty in the auto-written doc** (harness-only phase after
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rebuild). Manifest is the race-guard source of truth for this run.
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Earlier MacBook files `history-depth-20260719-093853` … `095156` are intermediate
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/ incomplete passes — **do not cite**. Only **103315** is authoritative.
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---
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## Results (authoritative: 103315)
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### Full-window signal IC (broad research universe, deep bars)
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| signal | mean_ic | t | weeks | avg_N | notes |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
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| high_52w | **0.111** | **6.41** | 84 | 2280 | strong on deep breadth |
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| mom_12_1 | **0.066** | **5.11** | 83 | 2278 | raw momentum strong |
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| trend_200 | 0.055 | 4.30 | 85 | 2308 | |
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| mom_6_1 | 0.049 | 4.91 | 88 | 2376 | |
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| mom_3_1 | 0.036 | 3.58 | 90 | 2426 | |
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| fip_id | **+0.027** | **3.25** | 83 | 2278 | **sign flip vs prod fingerprint** |
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| mom_12_1_resid | 0.026 | 2.21 | 83 | 2278 | market residual still + but weaker than raw |
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| reversal_1m | ~0 | 0.31 | 91 | 2443 | dead |
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| vol_6m | **−0.123** | **−6.34** | 88 | 2376 | low-vol anomaly strong |
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| mom_12_1_sector_resid | 0.058 | 2.34 | **35** | **498** | **not deep-sample — see caveats** |
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| mom_12_1_sector_demeaned | 0.034 | 1.32 | **35** | **497** | same short fingerprint |
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### Era split (diagnostic only — not a tuning input)
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| signal | pre-2021 IC / t / w / N | post-2021 IC / t / w / N |
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|---|---|---|
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| mom_12_1 | +0.041 / 2.94 / 36 / 1425 | +0.079 / 3.64 / 48 / 2913 |
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| mom_12_1_resid | +0.023 / 1.68 / 36 / 1425 | +0.027 / 1.37 / 48 / 2913 |
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| fip_id | +0.012 / 1.35 / 36 / 1425 | +0.037 / 2.91 / 48 / 2913 |
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| vol_6m | −0.056 / −2.16 / 40 / 1461 | −0.162 / −4.94 / 48 / 3123 |
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| high_52w | +0.049 / 2.0 / 36 / 1422 | +0.138 / 4.34 / 48 / 2915 |
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| **sector_resid** | **absent** | 0.058 / 2.34 / 35 / 498 (short only) |
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| **sector_demeaned** | **absent** | 0.034 / 1.32 / 35 / 497 (short only) |
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---
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## Critical caveats (must read)
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### 1. Sector residual did **not** get a deep-history stress test
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`mom_12_1_sector_resid` / `_demeaned` still show **exactly** the Task‑1 short-window
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fingerprint: **35 weeks, N≈498, IC 0.0578, t 2.34**.
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On the same run, raw `mom_12_1` has **83 weeks, N≈2278**. So depth worked for
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price-only signals, but sector residual is still limited to the **~505 labeled
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prod names × short factor calendar** (sector map only covers prod; and/or sector
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ETF / two-factor path did not extend usable residual weeks).
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**Pre-registered rule:** “Sector residual collapses pre-2021 → PARK Task 1
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wire-in.” Pre-2021 sector residual is **absent** from the era table. That is a
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**PARK**, not a confirmation of the short-window PROMOTE.
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Do **not** claim “sector residual beats market residual on deep history” from
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this table — the two rows are **not the same cross-section or window count**.
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### 2. `fip_id` sign flips vs production fingerprint
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| sample | fip mean IC | t |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Prod 505, ~5y (fingerprint) | **−0.045** | −2.91 |
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| Research breadth, deep (this run) | **+0.027** | +3.25 |
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This does **not** authorize resurrecting unconditional FIP as a book filter. It
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confirms earlier Phase‑B caution: FIP edge is **universe- and sample-dependent**.
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Production display card can stay context-only. Nested lookbacks still not OOS.
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### 3. Market residual vs raw momentum on deep breadth
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On deep broad IC, **raw 12‑1 (0.066 / t 5.1) ≫ market residual (0.026 / t 2.2)**.
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That does **not** by itself overturn production residual ranking (book A/B was
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on 505 + GTL gate, not pure factor IC), but it is a yellow flag for “residual is
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always the better rank key” stories on broad history. **No auto-retune.**
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### 4. Low-vol anomaly is the cleanest deep-history result
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`vol_6m` IC −0.12 / t −6.3 full; stronger post-2021. Consistent sign across eras.
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Production already blends **high**-vol (not low-vol) into the 80/20 rank — this
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report does not change that without a separate A/B. Flag for human awareness only.
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---
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## Verdicts (vs pre-registration)
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| question | verdict |
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| Task 1 sector residual wire-in | **PARK** — no pre-2021 sector residual; deep-sample IC not established; short-window PROMOTE stays “human design only,” **not strengthened** by this run |
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| Sector demean | still **DEAD** for promotion (t 1.32, short only) |
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| SUE | **not re-scored here** (no `sue_latest` in harness table) — leave Task 2 **PARK** until full earnings backfill |
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| fip unconditional book filter | remains **rejected / parked** despite sign flip on broad deep sample |
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| Production residual / 80/20 / trail knobs | **no retune** from this report |
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| Overall Task 3 | **COMPLETE as diagnostic** — payload is relative IC + caveats above |
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---
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## What a human must decide next
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1. **Sector residual:** keep research-only until either
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(a) sector ETF + sector map cover the full deep window **and** IC is re-run
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with weeks ≫ 35 on a documented universe, or
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(b) explicitly accept short-window-only evidence (weaker case).
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2. **Do not** merge sector residual into production from this depth run.
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3. **Do not** retune residual vs raw, FIP, or vol blend from these IC tables
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without a pre-registered book A/B on the intended universe.
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4. Optional follow-up: extend sector ETF history + sector labels to nasdaq_all,
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re-run **only** sector residual IC on deep research.sqlite with race guard.
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5. Optional: finish earnings backfill (48→506) and re-run SUE; depth alone did
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not include SUE.
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---
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## Artifacts
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| file | role |
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| `reports/history-depth-20260719-103315.json` | **authoritative** |
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| `reports/history-depth-20260719-103315.md` | companion dump |
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| `reports/history-depth-20260719-093853` … `095156` | **ignore** (partial) |
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---
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## Supersession notice (2026-07-19 sector-resid deep test)
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The table and interpretation from **`history-depth-20260719-103315`** are **UNMASKED, TWO-TIER SNAPSHOT — superseded, directional only, do not cite**. Prod-universe names (and sector residual coverage) were left shallow while breadth names were deepened; sector residual weeks=35 was a data gap.
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### Sector-residual deep test outcome: **FAIL**
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Task 1 CLOSED — sector residual dead on deep evidence.
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- Reason: failed one or more pre-registered checks (see checks)
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- Artifact: `reports/sector-resid-deep-20260719-113319.json`
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- Mechanical checks: see that report.
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**Future snapshot rebuilds must verify per-symbol depth** (earliest-bar uniformity across the intended universe) — guard is a to-do, not part of this order.
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