post-no-preference/earnings approved for private/internal ingestion under
CC BY-SA 4.0. Conditions the A2 importer must honor: preserve upstream license /
attribution / transformation notes; no public API, bulk export, or
redistribution; re-review before any public or commercial access. The stocks
repo (workstream B) is not covered and will be reviewed separately if B begins.
A0 rollout item marked done (dolt binary pin + DOLT_DATA_DIR still pending at
deploy time).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Review items 3-4 on the plan doc:
- Replace remaining "diluted shares" (the share *count*) with point-in-time
shares_outstanding (dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding) across schema,
metrics catalog and market-cap note. "diluted EPS" is left as-is (correctly a
duration fact). Adds the multi-class rule: derive the issuer-wide count from
the consolidated cover-page figure OR by summing class-specific facts (GOOG +
GOOGL) — never both, to avoid double counting.
- The framework stages into a representation *outside the live tables* (in-memory
for workstream A; a file/table handle is fine if B needs it), not physical
"staging tables" — wording now matches the implementation.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds the Dolt bulk-data integration hand-off plan (authored in prior
session) and applies clarifications found in a pre-handoff review:
- step (c): fields refresh from three distinct sources, not "snapshots +
close" — earnings_surprise/next_earnings_date come from earnings_events,
not SEC facts. pe_ratio = close / TTM diluted EPS and market_cap =
issuer-wide diluted shares × close stated as separate formulas.
- fundamental_snapshots made implementable: add period_start, fiscal_year,
fiscal_period; duration facts store the filing's cumulative YTD/FY values,
balance-sheet facts store period-end values. Discrete quarters, Q4, TTM
and YoY are derived at read time (correct for non-calendar fiscal years;
amendments never freeze a stale derived quarter).
- flag Q4 derivation / fiscal-period alignment as the primary A3 risk.
- anchor "tracked universe" to ticker_universe_service + per-run CIK
resolution.
All code anchors in the doc verified accurate against the current tree.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Earnings backfill sourced from the public DoltHub earnings repo at a
pinned commit rather than the FMP API: reproducible for anyone re-running
the study, and it burns no request quota. 12,414 events, 98.6% of symbols
with >=8 announcements, 99.2% paired actual/estimate, no keyed duplicates.
2a earnings-gap diagnostic: INFORMATIONAL, no filter shipped. The
pre-earnings cohort's right tail was better, so the registered
avoid-earnings condition failed. Note the raw 23/266 vs 115/574 incidence
gap is largely a duration confound -- severe losses stop out fast and have
less time to span an announcement -- so it is not evidence that holding
through earnings is safe.
2b SUE: FAIL against the pre-registered +0.03 bar (unconditional IC
+0.0151 over 56 reliable windows, momentum-conditional +0.0213). Signs
stable across eras, so this is a clean null rather than an ambiguous one,
consistent with post-earnings drift having decayed in large caps.
Closes the Tier-1 arc: Task 1 dead on deep evidence, Task 2 dead here,
Task 3 complete as diagnostic. No in-sample research thread remains open.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Drop intermediate history-depth reports, sector-residual runners/map/code hooks
(evidence stays in final reports + docs), and slim MacBook helper to ssl/earnings/
prod-book-matrix only. SSL bootstrap and archived research conclusions retained.
Four-arm results: 505 stays positive (softer on deep history); liquid breadth
destroys book under current knobs. Stop tracking 1.3GB pkl cache under reports/.cache.
Pre-register A-D (4y/2016 x 505/505+liquid) with unchanged production knobs.
Runner caches full GTL candidates then re-ranks per arm; MacBook entry via
run_tier1_macbook.sh --prod-book-matrix.
Deep masked retest failed the iron IC bar (0.027 < 0.03). Log as rejected #13 in
research README; close sector-residual and history-depth docs. Production market
residual unchanged.
Authoritative report history-depth-20260719-103315: race guard pass on deep
research.sqlite. Sector residual still short-window only (no pre-2021); fip sign
flips on broad deep sample; no production retune.
Tier-1 alpha research (local only, no production deploy):
Sector residual momentum: two-factor SPY+sector residual and sector demean signals, IC harness + A/B. Sector resid clears pre-registered bars narrowly (PROMOTE for human wire design only). Sector demean fails t vs market resid.
Earnings: earnings_events backfill (FMP bulk paid; FMP/AV per-symbol), 2a gap diagnostic report-only, 2b SUE IC (PARK; incomplete 48/506 coverage).
History-depth: pre-registered doc + runner for MacBook deep rebuild/harness.
Do not ship production residual or filters from this branch.
Log the 21:14 orphan as a snapshot-build race, rewrite the context table to
authoritative ICs only, and soften the vol-tilt warning. Add extender completion
manifest + breadth refuse guard; strip intermediate/orphaned reports; park the
thread (no book sim, no deploy).
Add lagged/tier/prod-subset/mom-conditional checks on research.sqlite.
Log: unconditional sign is a winner/bleeder tug-of-war; mom-conditional
fip stays negative and reliable; warn on high-vol tilt if universe broadens.
Add research-only snapshot extender, PIT dollar-volume mask for signal IC,
rank-only harness path, fingerprint+breadth runner, and docs. Fingerprint
reproduced IC -0.045 / t -2.91 on prod.sqlite. No production gate/schedule changes.
Move the only qualifying R:R scan to 15:30 ET with chained Telegram alerts,
put outcome eval after a final-bar OHLCV fetch, enforce NY trading-day
requalify semantics, stamp paper trades fill_mode=near_close, and migrate
stored schedule_* keys to America/New_York.
Record monotone fill-timing gradient, live [1.57,1.77] bracket, recover-flag
interpretation, gap-cap as third tail-trim, and pre-scheduler ops checklist.
Document Phase A (max-hold/vol/corr closed; next-open as decision baseline).
Add stale_close and next_open gap-cap fill modes plus a small matrix to test
whether near-close scheduling recovers overnight momentum drift.
Honor custom S/R tolerance as a transient detect, refresh levels after OHLCV
mutations without failing committed price writes, report per-ticker S/R
rebuild failures from admin cleanup, and warn in the admin UI when refresh is partial.
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8