Fix post-cluster neutral strength ablation

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2026-07-12 23:51:28 +02:00
parent 8df76d3288
commit b891122936
4 changed files with 64 additions and 1 deletions
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@@ -498,6 +498,29 @@ Run on macOS:
Do not validate any traffic arm yet. First establish whether geometry, pivots, or
the range-occupancy grid reproduces production on pre-2024 training data.
Initial result:
| arm | Sharpe | CAGR | MaxDD | net avg R | ex-top-5% |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| production control | 1.28 | 28.8% | 21.4% | 0.230 | 0.066 |
| pivots only | 1.38 | 32.9% | 25.2% | 0.236 | 0.076 |
| traffic grid only | **1.72** | **41.8%** | **16.8%** | **0.271** | **0.136** |
The traffic grid is the first research arm to beat control simultaneously on
Sharpe, CAGR, drawdown, and robust expectancy. It retains 264 production setups,
adds 240 positive-expectancy setups, and removes 412 weaker setups. This supports
the hypothesis that the useful legacy feature is the volume-weighted range-
occupancy grid, not pivots or visually meaningful S/R.
The first geometry-neutral result is not interpretable: neutral strength was set
before the shared zone cluster, which summed multiple 50-strength constituents
back to 100. Neutrality is now enforced after clustering. Rerun only that arm:
```bash
.venv/bin/python scripts/run_sr_v2_matrix.py traffic \
--only-arm legacy_geometry_neutral --workers 14
```
**Next runs, if picked back up:**
- A **per-name target model** for clear-air setups instead of a constant k×ATR. This