The previous artifact was produced from a dirty working tree while HEAD still
pointed at the harness commit, so its recorded revision could not reproduce it.
This one records git_dirty false alongside sha256 of the three source files it
depends on, so the claim "checking out this revision reproduces this artifact"
is now checkable rather than implied.
All hard gates pass, including the first-scored-date anchor and the row-wise
state_v4 <= state_v3 invariant, so it carries a non-null recommendation.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Review of the v4 evidence path. The shipped sensors, bands, methodology bump and
categorical allowlist were found sound; these are gaps in the harness that
produced the evidence for them.
The recommendation gates were optional, so they were not gates. The calendar
anchor lived behind --expected-first-session, which defaulted to None -- so the
committed artifact had no first-date check at all, leaving only a session COUNT
that is tautological (the harness slices the tail of the price series to whatever
was asked for). And the state_v4 <= state_v3 invariant was appended only when
both variants were present, so `--methodology v3` alone could still emit a v4
recommendation having never evaluated v4. The anchor is now a published constant
asserted unconditionally, required explicitly whenever --end/--sessions are
overridden, and v3+v4 are mandatory. Both refusals exit 2.
The P1_SCORE_CAP decision was taken on the wrong population. The agreed rule was
"sole price argmax on >80% of sessions with State >= 40"; the harness reported
only all-session counts and the doc concluded from 17/408 = 4.2%. Measured on the
actual population: 47 qualifying sessions, P1 sole argmax on 17 = **36.2%** (P2
16, P3 14). Still well under 80, so the conclusion holds -- but it was reached
from a denominator that did not test the rule, and 36.2% is a materially
different number to have on the page.
Provenance did not identify the code that produced the artifact. It recorded
git_rev c3ae5ad while the live v4 variant depended on app changes that were still
uncommitted, so checking out that revision would not reproduce it. Now records
git_dirty plus sha256 of regime_monitor_service, breadth_service and the script
itself, and this artifact is regenerated from a clean tree.
The 400- vs 700-day OAS question was described as settled but was not
reproducible: the artifact carried only oas_fetch_days 4748, and
v2_reconstruction patches the per-session window to 3653 regardless, so
--oas-window-days 400 could not simulate it. Patching a window cannot stand in
for data that was simply absent, so v2_reconstruction_oas400 truncates the OAS
SOURCE series instead: avg 26.54, p80 42.52, max 100.00 against published
22.6 / 35.1 / 91.2. Full coverage reproduces all three, so the published figures
predate the truncation. Now recorded in the doc.
v4-vix-only and v4-p1-only had become no-ops: after the cutover the shipped
sensors ARE v4, so patching one candidate in left the other shipped and both
variants evaluated full v4. Each now restores the other sensor to its v3 formula,
and they separate properly (v3 18.13, v4-vix-only 16.64, v4-p1-only 16.28,
v4 14.78 -- each fix contributing about half the move).
Docs: the copy-paste invocation was mangled by a backslash-escaping bug and is
now a fenced, forward-slash command; "Unlike P3 and V1 ... P3's do not" corrected
to "Unlike P1 and V1"; the point-in-time section updated from 400 sessions to the
672-calendar-day / ~464-session window production actually replays; the exercised
52.33 VIX print recorded so the top anchors are not merely asserted.
Tests: band_for now pinned at 64.9/65 from both sides so a silent revert to 80
cannot pass, and the categorical carry-forward test stores locked=True and
asserts it survives -- losing it is half the failure mode, since
update_regime_monitor only auto-refreshes when locked is false.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Two sensors saturated in exactly the range where resolution matters, and the top
State band had no headroom. Calibrated with scripts/run_regime_monitor_calibration.py
over the 408 sessions ending 2026-07-24; the shipped code reproduces that run's
band shares exactly (78.9 / 13.0 / 4.7 / 3.4).
V1 read VIX 30, 50 and 82 as an identical 100 — the same defect v3 had just
removed from P3, left in place one sensor over. In the window it flattened five
distinct April-2025 prints (52.33, 46.98, 45.31, 40.72, 38.57) into one value.
Now an anchor table reaching full scale at 55, not at 2020's ~82: anchoring the
top at a once-in-a-generation print would make VIX 50 read only ~70. Pegged on
14 of 408 sessions before; none now.
_under_200 returned a bare 0/100, so P1 printed 100 the moment SMH and QQQ were
both under their average — and since the price pillar takes max(P1, P2, P3),
that pinned the pillar and stopped P3's ladder resolving for the whole of a
selloff. Now graded by depth below the 200-DMA, with a deliberate floor of 20 at
the crossing: the break is a genuine binary event, only its depth is graded.
Pegged on 46 of 408 sessions before; none now. A 2% break reads ~30, not 100.
max() was KEPT — the defect was the step function feeding it, not the vote, and
v3's "one capped vote for correlated reads" rationale still holds. P1 is the sole
price argmax on 17 of 408 sessions (4.2%), so the P1_SCORE_CAP fallback drafted
during design was measured as unnecessary and not shipped.
STATE_BANDS breaking 80 -> 65, and only that threshold. Credit returns 0.0 (not
None) when calm, so it holds its 20 points pinned at zero and price + breadth +
volatility at literal maximum summed to exactly 80.0 — v3's threshold to the
decimal, with nothing above it. The sensor is deliberately unchanged: a
calm-credit selloff genuinely is less stressed. What was stale is the band, fit
on v2 while credit's since-removed percentile leg still contributed. A
2022-style AI/tech drawdown with calm credit computes to 70.3 (no death cross) or
74.0 (with one); 70 would have left 0.33 points of headroom, reproducing the
defect. Chosen by scenario arithmetic, and the realized breaking share then lands
on 3.4% — the same as v3's, arrived at independently.
"v4" added to CATEGORICAL_FUNDAMENTAL_METHODOLOGIES in this same commit, which is
load-bearing: that set is checked against the STORED blob, so bumping without it
discards the collected observation on first write, leaving fetched_at null and
locked false — and update_regime_monitor then fires a paid LLM refresh on every
run, forever. Now guarded by a test parametrised over v2 and v3 stored blobs.
SENSOR_REVISION deliberately stays 2: a METHODOLOGY change already forces a full
reseed via _parse_snapshot, and bumping both would imply the reseed was
revision-driven.
QUADRANT_STATE_DIVIDER stays 50 because only breaking moved, so alert_service,
RegimeChart and the quadrant tests need no change. A new test enforces
divider == band boundary on both axes, which nothing did before.
Doc renamed to regime-monitor-v4.md with a tombstone at the old path (commit
messages cite it), the three open questions converted to resolved with the
reasoning that closed them, and indexed in docs/research/README.md for the first
time. The P2 limit is stated honestly: _death_cross pegs at a -5% MA gap, so a
deep selloff still reaches 100 via P2 — v4 repairs the shallow-to-moderate break,
not "the price pillar no longer pegs".
DEPLOY: the first run reseeds ~464 sessions. Expect one phantom quadrant alert
(the dedup key carries basket_hash, not methodology) and re-run the Event Study
manually — its cached report self-invalidates but does not self-regenerate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
v3 was calibrated by replaying the series offline, but that harness was never
committed -- so its published numbers could not be re-derived, and a v4 cut would
have had to choose anchors by argument rather than measurement. This is that
harness, and it reproduces the published figures.
scripts/run_regime_monitor_calibration.py replays State/Warning session by
session from the same inputs the live job uses (Alpaca for all 33 symbols, FRED
for VIX and HY OAS), with no database: breadth and divergence come from
breadth_service's pure helpers. It never reimplements an unchanged live sensor --
_compute_index, _score_pillars, P2, P4 and the Warning sensors are imported and
called. Only candidate formulas (proposed v4) and retired ones (v2, gone from the
codebase) are defined here and patched onto the module for a variant's duration.
Reproduction of the 408 sessions ending 2026-07-24, against the figures in
docs/research/regime-monitor-v3.md:
v2 State avg 22.6 -> 22.68
v2 State p80 35.1 -> 35.1 exact
v2 State max 91.2 -> 91.2 exact
v2 P3 pegged 39 -> 39 exact
v2 W1 live 108 -> 108 exact
v3 State max 87.4 -> 87.4 exact
v3 band shares 73.3/15.0/8.3/3.4 -> 73.0/15.4/8.1/3.4
Three things the harness had to get right to reach that, each of which was
initially wrong and caught by a gate rather than by inspection:
- "W1 live 108" counts NONZERO sessions, not non-null ones. v2's divergence
gate returned 0.0 during any decline (v3 tapers instead), so the retired
divergence formula had to be reconstructed too.
- v2 sliced HY_OAS_REFERENCE_YEARS = 10.0 per session, not v3's 700 days. The
percentile leg ranks against that window, so replaying it short shifted the
middle of the distribution while leaving the max exact.
- The published v2 numbers correspond to FULL OAS coverage. Replaying v2 with
the 400-calendar-day fetch it shipped with yields max 100.0 and 133
credit-less sessions -- so that truncation was not in force when the figures
were taken. Recorded rather than assumed.
The script refuses to emit a band recommendation unless every hard gate passes
(33 symbols fetched, per-symbol warm-up and final bar, full basket on every
session, calendar anchors, 100% coverage, and a row-wise state_v4 <= state_v3
invariant), and exits non-zero. It is meant to be structurally impossible to read
a calibration result out of a run whose pipeline did not validate. No v4 code
ships in this commit.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings the durable artifacts of research/portfolio-capacity-rebalancing onto
main so the rationale for raising the count cap lives with the code that cites
it. The matrix runner, the research simulator hooks and the study's unit tests
are deliberately left behind; they remain at tag research/portfolio-capacity-final.
Corrects conclusions that were reached on EV per trade and are now superseded:
the findings doc's decisions 1 (keep cap 10) and 4 (run the risk-floor A/B) are
struck through and answered in a new correction section, and the research README
and phase-A matrix entries are updated to match. The frozen specification itself
is untouched -- its recorded SHA-256 f1e37783 still verifies.
effective-risk-floor-ab.md is retained but marked CLOSED/NEGATIVE: the study it
proposes is already answered by cap15 vs cash_unbounded (-0.753pp CAGR while
EV/trade rises), and its EV-based pass rule would have shipped it.
scripts/research_rankings.py replaces a fourth copy of the historical rank-map
helper; run_research_matrix, run_execution_recovery_matrix and
run_daily_reentry_matrix now share it. The shared version adds a duplicate
observation guard and a deterministic symbol tie-break the copies lacked.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Closes the parity investigation: prod reparse runs 6+7 reconciled against the
dry run, the collision check that caught the BEN regression (and its residue --
36 historical 53-week-drift rows, deliberately left), and the 2026-07-24 parity
report diffed against the 2026-07-23 baseline. Candidate coverage 482 -> 504 of
511 with the gap fully explained (PSKY/Q new registrants, FITB guard-tripped
with no revenue), agreement unchanged where both sides exist, and the remaining
deltas are documented definition differences. Includes the after-report and a
correction to the seventh pass (FITB loses its score, not just one input).
Recommends approving the A5 cutover with KLAC as the one carried caveat.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Found in review. _merge_amendments rebuilds a period from _MERGED_FIELDS +
_CARRIED_FIELDS alone, so a column in neither list is absent from the merged
row, not just stale — and callers read it with getattr(..., None), which
silently yields None. weighted_avg_diluted_shares was never added when the
market-cap fallback landed (_SNAPSHOT_COLS in the importer was updated, its
counterpart in the derivation was not).
The failure needed both of this branch's fixes at once: a multi-class issuer
with a partial amendment on its latest period (META with a Part-III-only
10-K/A) would silently lose market cap and FCF yield again.
Adds the field, a regression test for that case, and a guard test asserting
the merge/carry lists cover every SnapshotRow field, so the next column added
fails loudly rather than losing data quietly. Confirmed the guard catches the
original bug.
Also from review:
- Expose pe_caveat in the valuation payload, so a P/E suppressed by split
contamination says why instead of looking like missing data (the caveat was
set but never read).
- no_xbrl_filings now names both causes; the old text advised pinning a CIK
override, which is wrong for a genuine new registrant that simply has not
filed yet and clears itself.
- Document that fiscalYearEnd is the issuer's current calendar, so a fiscal-
year-end change degrades old periods (fallback/newest-wins), not current ones.
- Parser-level tests for _select_weighted_avg_shares (shortest-span-wins and
concept priority), which only had derivation-level coverage.
823 unit tests pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Nine-pass investigation of the 2026-07-23 A5 parity report: for each coverage
gap and wrong value, the root cause traced against live SEC company facts, the
fix, and its live-data validation. Also records the decisions taken (weighted-
average share fallback, keep ASC-606 revenue basis, basic-EPS fallback, keep the
25% split-guard threshold) and what remains genuinely unfixable from this data
(KLAC post-filing split, BRK-B dimensional share count). Includes the source
parity report the findings analyse.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Earnings backfill sourced from the public DoltHub earnings repo at a
pinned commit rather than the FMP API: reproducible for anyone re-running
the study, and it burns no request quota. 12,414 events, 98.6% of symbols
with >=8 announcements, 99.2% paired actual/estimate, no keyed duplicates.
2a earnings-gap diagnostic: INFORMATIONAL, no filter shipped. The
pre-earnings cohort's right tail was better, so the registered
avoid-earnings condition failed. Note the raw 23/266 vs 115/574 incidence
gap is largely a duration confound -- severe losses stop out fast and have
less time to span an announcement -- so it is not evidence that holding
through earnings is safe.
2b SUE: FAIL against the pre-registered +0.03 bar (unconditional IC
+0.0151 over 56 reliable windows, momentum-conditional +0.0213). Signs
stable across eras, so this is a clean null rather than an ambiguous one,
consistent with post-earnings drift having decayed in large caps.
Closes the Tier-1 arc: Task 1 dead on deep evidence, Task 2 dead here,
Task 3 complete as diagnostic. No in-sample research thread remains open.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Drop intermediate history-depth reports, sector-residual runners/map/code hooks
(evidence stays in final reports + docs), and slim MacBook helper to ssl/earnings/
prod-book-matrix only. SSL bootstrap and archived research conclusions retained.
Authoritative report history-depth-20260719-103315: race guard pass on deep
research.sqlite. Sector residual still short-window only (no pre-2021); fip sign
flips on broad deep sample; no production retune.
Tier-1 alpha research (local only, no production deploy):
Sector residual momentum: two-factor SPY+sector residual and sector demean signals, IC harness + A/B. Sector resid clears pre-registered bars narrowly (PROMOTE for human wire design only). Sector demean fails t vs market resid.
Earnings: earnings_events backfill (FMP bulk paid; FMP/AV per-symbol), 2a gap diagnostic report-only, 2b SUE IC (PARK; incomplete 48/506 coverage).
History-depth: pre-registered doc + runner for MacBook deep rebuild/harness.
Do not ship production residual or filters from this branch.
Log the 21:14 orphan as a snapshot-build race, rewrite the context table to
authoritative ICs only, and soften the vol-tilt warning. Add extender completion
manifest + breadth refuse guard; strip intermediate/orphaned reports; park the
thread (no book sim, no deploy).
Add lagged/tier/prod-subset/mom-conditional checks on research.sqlite.
Log: unconditional sign is a winner/bleeder tug-of-war; mom-conditional
fip stays negative and reliable; warn on high-vol tilt if universe broadens.
Add research-only snapshot extender, PIT dollar-volume mask for signal IC,
rank-only harness path, fingerprint+breadth runner, and docs. Fingerprint
reproduced IC -0.045 / t -2.91 on prod.sqlite. No production gate/schedule changes.
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 5