research: clean up closed Tier-1 scaffolding from branch

Drop intermediate history-depth reports, sector-residual runners/map/code hooks
(evidence stays in final reports + docs), and slim MacBook helper to ssl/earnings/
prod-book-matrix only. SSL bootstrap and archived research conclusions retained.
This commit is contained in:
2026-07-19 14:41:52 +02:00
parent 1c38a94dd0
commit bb8aa655a1
22 changed files with 88 additions and 5450 deletions
@@ -1,68 +0,0 @@
{
"generated_at": "2026-07-19T09:38:53.936226",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels.",
"coverage": {
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
},
"race_guard": null,
"harness": null,
"verdict": "COVERAGE_ONLY",
"verdict_detail": "Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.",
"human_next": "- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.\n- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.\n- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.",
"report_path": "reports/history-depth-20260719-093853.json"
}
-177
View File
@@ -1,177 +0,0 @@
# History-depth extension (Tier-1 alpha research)
**Status:** PRE-REGISTERED — run on MacBook (heavy I/O + full harness).
**Branch:** `research/history-depth-extension` (create from latest research stack).
**Production impact:** none. **Do not retune any production knob on deep history.**
---
## Pre-registration (locked before rebuild)
### Motivation
All current conclusions rest on ~35 non-overlapping weekly windows in essentially
one post-2021 regime. Extending history toward max Alpaca daily-bar depth adds
the 2018 vol shock and full 2020 crash (where the feed allows).
### Protocol
1. **Empirical coverage first** — bars per calendar year per symbol; document
where the feed thins out. Do **not** assume a uniform start date.
2. **Rebuild the research snapshot completely** from prod source + max history
per symbol (`Adjustment.SPLIT`, ~200 req/min pacing via existing extender).
3. **Race guard (rule 6)** — refuse analysis until completion manifest is
`complete=true` and live counts match.
4. **Re-run full signal harness** (all existing signals incl. sector residual /
SUE if present) on the extended window.
5. **Report per signal:** mean IC, t, window count, and **era split**
(pre-/post-2021) — diagnostic only, **not a tuning input**.
6. **Log prominently:** survivorship bias grows with depth (todays constituents
backfilled). Absolute Sharpe/CAGR on deep history is optimistic; payload is
**relative** signal comparisons and IC stability, not levels.
7. **Do not retune** production knobs. If a knobs confirmation looks
overturned on deep history → report only; human decides.
### Success / interpretation (not promotion of a new signal)
| outcome | meaning |
|---|---|
| Sector residual still ≥ market residual on deep IC + stable sign | strengthens Task 1 PROMOTE case |
| Sector residual collapses pre-2021 | **PARK** Task 1 wire-in |
| SUE remains weak after full earnings + depth | **DEAD** SUE for this stack |
| Any production knob looks worse deep | report; no auto-retune |
---
## MacBook runbook
Prefer the bundled script (one entry point):
```bash
git fetch origin && git checkout research/earnings-gap-and-sue
# .env: ALPACA_* required; FMP_* if resuming earnings
# copy backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite if not already local
chmod +x scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Default: coverage → deep rebuild → harness (+ era split)
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Optional variants
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --all # + earnings resume first
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --earnings-only # multi-day FMP + 2a/2b only
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --harness-only # skip rebuild
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --coverage-only
# Tunables
WORKERS=12 HISTORY_DAYS=5000 ./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --workers 12 --fmp-limit 250
```
Then commit `reports/` + updated research docs, or copy them back to Windows.
---
## Data provenance
*(filled at run time)*
---
## Results
Generated: `2026-07-19T09:38:53.936226`
> **SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only — not levels.**
### Coverage
```json
{
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
}
```
### Race guard
```json
{}
```
### Signal IC (full extended window)
_Harness not run this pass._
### Era split (diagnostic only)
_No era split._
## Verdict
**COVERAGE_ONLY**
Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.
## What a human must decide next
- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.
- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.
- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.
Artifacts: `reports/history-depth-20260719-093853.json`
@@ -1,68 +0,0 @@
{
"generated_at": "2026-07-19T09:41:34.109378",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels.",
"coverage": {
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
},
"race_guard": null,
"harness": null,
"verdict": "COVERAGE_ONLY",
"verdict_detail": "Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.",
"human_next": "- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.\n- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.\n- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.",
"report_path": "reports/history-depth-20260719-094134.json"
}
-177
View File
@@ -1,177 +0,0 @@
# History-depth extension (Tier-1 alpha research)
**Status:** PRE-REGISTERED — run on MacBook (heavy I/O + full harness).
**Branch:** `research/history-depth-extension` (create from latest research stack).
**Production impact:** none. **Do not retune any production knob on deep history.**
---
## Pre-registration (locked before rebuild)
### Motivation
All current conclusions rest on ~35 non-overlapping weekly windows in essentially
one post-2021 regime. Extending history toward max Alpaca daily-bar depth adds
the 2018 vol shock and full 2020 crash (where the feed allows).
### Protocol
1. **Empirical coverage first** — bars per calendar year per symbol; document
where the feed thins out. Do **not** assume a uniform start date.
2. **Rebuild the research snapshot completely** from prod source + max history
per symbol (`Adjustment.SPLIT`, ~200 req/min pacing via existing extender).
3. **Race guard (rule 6)** — refuse analysis until completion manifest is
`complete=true` and live counts match.
4. **Re-run full signal harness** (all existing signals incl. sector residual /
SUE if present) on the extended window.
5. **Report per signal:** mean IC, t, window count, and **era split**
(pre-/post-2021) — diagnostic only, **not a tuning input**.
6. **Log prominently:** survivorship bias grows with depth (todays constituents
backfilled). Absolute Sharpe/CAGR on deep history is optimistic; payload is
**relative** signal comparisons and IC stability, not levels.
7. **Do not retune** production knobs. If a knobs confirmation looks
overturned on deep history → report only; human decides.
### Success / interpretation (not promotion of a new signal)
| outcome | meaning |
|---|---|
| Sector residual still ≥ market residual on deep IC + stable sign | strengthens Task 1 PROMOTE case |
| Sector residual collapses pre-2021 | **PARK** Task 1 wire-in |
| SUE remains weak after full earnings + depth | **DEAD** SUE for this stack |
| Any production knob looks worse deep | report; no auto-retune |
---
## MacBook runbook
Prefer the bundled script (one entry point):
```bash
git fetch origin && git checkout research/earnings-gap-and-sue
# .env: ALPACA_* required; FMP_* if resuming earnings
# copy backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite if not already local
chmod +x scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Default: coverage → deep rebuild → harness (+ era split)
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Optional variants
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --all # + earnings resume first
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --earnings-only # multi-day FMP + 2a/2b only
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --harness-only # skip rebuild
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --coverage-only
# Tunables
WORKERS=12 HISTORY_DAYS=5000 ./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --workers 12 --fmp-limit 250
```
Then commit `reports/` + updated research docs, or copy them back to Windows.
---
## Data provenance
*(filled at run time)*
---
## Results
Generated: `2026-07-19T09:41:34.109378`
> **SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only — not levels.**
### Coverage
```json
{
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
}
```
### Race guard
```json
{}
```
### Signal IC (full extended window)
_Harness not run this pass._
### Era split (diagnostic only)
_No era split._
## Verdict
**COVERAGE_ONLY**
Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.
## What a human must decide next
- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.
- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.
- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.
Artifacts: `reports/history-depth-20260719-094134.json`
@@ -1,68 +0,0 @@
{
"generated_at": "2026-07-19T09:43:44.520126",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels.",
"coverage": {
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
},
"race_guard": null,
"harness": null,
"verdict": "COVERAGE_ONLY",
"verdict_detail": "Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.",
"human_next": "- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.\n- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.\n- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.",
"report_path": "reports/history-depth-20260719-094344.json"
}
-177
View File
@@ -1,177 +0,0 @@
# History-depth extension (Tier-1 alpha research)
**Status:** PRE-REGISTERED — run on MacBook (heavy I/O + full harness).
**Branch:** `research/history-depth-extension` (create from latest research stack).
**Production impact:** none. **Do not retune any production knob on deep history.**
---
## Pre-registration (locked before rebuild)
### Motivation
All current conclusions rest on ~35 non-overlapping weekly windows in essentially
one post-2021 regime. Extending history toward max Alpaca daily-bar depth adds
the 2018 vol shock and full 2020 crash (where the feed allows).
### Protocol
1. **Empirical coverage first** — bars per calendar year per symbol; document
where the feed thins out. Do **not** assume a uniform start date.
2. **Rebuild the research snapshot completely** from prod source + max history
per symbol (`Adjustment.SPLIT`, ~200 req/min pacing via existing extender).
3. **Race guard (rule 6)** — refuse analysis until completion manifest is
`complete=true` and live counts match.
4. **Re-run full signal harness** (all existing signals incl. sector residual /
SUE if present) on the extended window.
5. **Report per signal:** mean IC, t, window count, and **era split**
(pre-/post-2021) — diagnostic only, **not a tuning input**.
6. **Log prominently:** survivorship bias grows with depth (todays constituents
backfilled). Absolute Sharpe/CAGR on deep history is optimistic; payload is
**relative** signal comparisons and IC stability, not levels.
7. **Do not retune** production knobs. If a knobs confirmation looks
overturned on deep history → report only; human decides.
### Success / interpretation (not promotion of a new signal)
| outcome | meaning |
|---|---|
| Sector residual still ≥ market residual on deep IC + stable sign | strengthens Task 1 PROMOTE case |
| Sector residual collapses pre-2021 | **PARK** Task 1 wire-in |
| SUE remains weak after full earnings + depth | **DEAD** SUE for this stack |
| Any production knob looks worse deep | report; no auto-retune |
---
## MacBook runbook
Prefer the bundled script (one entry point):
```bash
git fetch origin && git checkout research/earnings-gap-and-sue
# .env: ALPACA_* required; FMP_* if resuming earnings
# copy backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite if not already local
chmod +x scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Default: coverage → deep rebuild → harness (+ era split)
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Optional variants
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --all # + earnings resume first
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --earnings-only # multi-day FMP + 2a/2b only
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --harness-only # skip rebuild
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --coverage-only
# Tunables
WORKERS=12 HISTORY_DAYS=5000 ./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --workers 12 --fmp-limit 250
```
Then commit `reports/` + updated research docs, or copy them back to Windows.
---
## Data provenance
*(filled at run time)*
---
## Results
Generated: `2026-07-19T09:43:44.520126`
> **SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only — not levels.**
### Coverage
```json
{
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
}
```
### Race guard
```json
{}
```
### Signal IC (full extended window)
_Harness not run this pass._
### Era split (diagnostic only)
_No era split._
## Verdict
**COVERAGE_ONLY**
Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.
## What a human must decide next
- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.
- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.
- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.
Artifacts: `reports/history-depth-20260719-094344.json`
@@ -1,68 +0,0 @@
{
"generated_at": "2026-07-19T09:51:56.525634",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels.",
"coverage": {
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
},
"race_guard": null,
"harness": null,
"verdict": "COVERAGE_ONLY",
"verdict_detail": "Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.",
"human_next": "- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.\n- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.\n- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.",
"report_path": "reports/history-depth-20260719-095156.json"
}
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@@ -1,177 +0,0 @@
# History-depth extension (Tier-1 alpha research)
**Status:** PRE-REGISTERED — run on MacBook (heavy I/O + full harness).
**Branch:** `research/history-depth-extension` (create from latest research stack).
**Production impact:** none. **Do not retune any production knob on deep history.**
---
## Pre-registration (locked before rebuild)
### Motivation
All current conclusions rest on ~35 non-overlapping weekly windows in essentially
one post-2021 regime. Extending history toward max Alpaca daily-bar depth adds
the 2018 vol shock and full 2020 crash (where the feed allows).
### Protocol
1. **Empirical coverage first** — bars per calendar year per symbol; document
where the feed thins out. Do **not** assume a uniform start date.
2. **Rebuild the research snapshot completely** from prod source + max history
per symbol (`Adjustment.SPLIT`, ~200 req/min pacing via existing extender).
3. **Race guard (rule 6)** — refuse analysis until completion manifest is
`complete=true` and live counts match.
4. **Re-run full signal harness** (all existing signals incl. sector residual /
SUE if present) on the extended window.
5. **Report per signal:** mean IC, t, window count, and **era split**
(pre-/post-2021) — diagnostic only, **not a tuning input**.
6. **Log prominently:** survivorship bias grows with depth (todays constituents
backfilled). Absolute Sharpe/CAGR on deep history is optimistic; payload is
**relative** signal comparisons and IC stability, not levels.
7. **Do not retune** production knobs. If a knobs confirmation looks
overturned on deep history → report only; human decides.
### Success / interpretation (not promotion of a new signal)
| outcome | meaning |
|---|---|
| Sector residual still ≥ market residual on deep IC + stable sign | strengthens Task 1 PROMOTE case |
| Sector residual collapses pre-2021 | **PARK** Task 1 wire-in |
| SUE remains weak after full earnings + depth | **DEAD** SUE for this stack |
| Any production knob looks worse deep | report; no auto-retune |
---
## MacBook runbook
Prefer the bundled script (one entry point):
```bash
git fetch origin && git checkout research/earnings-gap-and-sue
# .env: ALPACA_* required; FMP_* if resuming earnings
# copy backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite if not already local
chmod +x scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Default: coverage → deep rebuild → harness (+ era split)
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
# Optional variants
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --all # + earnings resume first
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --earnings-only # multi-day FMP + 2a/2b only
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --harness-only # skip rebuild
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --coverage-only
# Tunables
WORKERS=12 HISTORY_DAYS=5000 ./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh
./scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh --workers 12 --fmp-limit 250
```
Then commit `reports/` + updated research docs, or copy them back to Windows.
---
## Data provenance
*(filled at run time)*
---
## Results
Generated: `2026-07-19T09:51:56.525634`
> **SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only — not levels.**
### Coverage
```json
{
"snapshot": "/Users/taathde3/git/lab/signal_platform/backtest_snapshots/prod.sqlite",
"ticker_count": 506,
"ohlcv_row_count": 629263,
"date_range": {
"min": "2021-06-24",
"max": "2026-07-02"
},
"bars_per_year": [
{
"year": "2021",
"bars": 65678,
"tickers_with_bars": 494
},
{
"year": "2022",
"bars": 124423,
"tickers_with_bars": 497
},
{
"year": "2023",
"bars": 124479,
"tickers_with_bars": 499
},
{
"year": "2024",
"bars": 126129,
"tickers_with_bars": 501
},
{
"year": "2025",
"bars": 125615,
"tickers_with_bars": 504
},
{
"year": "2026",
"bars": 62939,
"tickers_with_bars": 505
}
],
"bars_per_symbol": {
"min": 14,
"p10": 1261,
"p50": 1261,
"p90": 1261,
"max": 1261
},
"symbols_by_start_year": {
"2021": 494,
"2022": 3,
"2023": 2,
"2024": 2,
"2025": 3,
"2026": 1
},
"note": "Where ticker counts drop in early years, the feed (or listing history) thins \u2014 do not treat those years as a full 505-name cross-section.",
"survivorship_banner": "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: today's constituents backfilled historically. Absolute Sharpe/CAGR levels on deep history are optimistic. Use RELATIVE signal IC comparisons and era stability only \u2014 not levels."
}
```
### Race guard
```json
{}
```
### Signal IC (full extended window)
_Harness not run this pass._
### Era split (diagnostic only)
_No era split._
## Verdict
**COVERAGE_ONLY**
Coverage probe only; run --phase harness after deep rebuild.
## What a human must decide next
- Compare sector residual vs market residual across eras.
- If pre-2021 IC collapses, park Task 1 wire-in.
- Do not retune production knobs on deep history levels.
Artifacts: `reports/history-depth-20260719-095156.json`
@@ -1,275 +0,0 @@
{
"step1": {
"shallow_meta": {
"n_symbols": 4654,
"deep_cohort_p10_start": "2016-01-04",
"shallow_cutoff": "2017-02-07",
"lag_days": 400,
"n_shallow": 3349,
"shallow_start_histogram": {
"2017": 117,
"2018": 162,
"2019": 163,
"2020": 269,
"2021": 1060,
"2022": 211,
"2023": 176,
"2024": 281,
"2025": 543,
"2026": 367
},
"deep_start_histogram": {
"2016": 1296,
"2017": 9
},
"shallow_sample": [
"A",
"AACB",
"AACBR",
"AACBU",
"AACI",
"AACIU",
"AACIW",
"AACO",
"AACOU",
"AACOW",
"AACP",
"AACPR",
"AACPU",
"AACPW",
"AAPG",
"AAPL",
"AARD",
"ABAT",
"ABBV",
"ABCL",
"ABLV",
"ABLVW",
"ABNB",
"ABOS",
"ABSI",
"ABT",
"ABTC",
"ABVC",
"ABVX",
"ACAA"
]
},
"shallow_list_n": 3349,
"fetch_ok": 3349,
"fetch_fail": 0,
"etf_refresh": {
"written": {
"SPY": 0,
"XLB": 0,
"XLC": 0,
"XLE": 0,
"XLF": 0,
"XLI": 0,
"XLK": 0,
"XLP": 0,
"XLRE": 0,
"XLU": 0,
"XLV": 0,
"XLY": 0
},
"benchmark_summary": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLB",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLC",
"n": 2030,
"min": "2018-06-19",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLF",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLI",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLP",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLRE",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLU",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLV",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"symbol": "XLY",
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
}
]
},
"sanity": {
"passed": false,
"megacap": {
"AAPL": {
"symbol": "AAPL",
"bars": 2649,
"min_date": "2016-01-04",
"max_date": "2026-07-17"
},
"MSFT": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"bars": 2649,
"min_date": "2016-01-04",
"max_date": "2026-07-17"
},
"JPM": {
"symbol": "JPM",
"bars": 2649,
"min_date": "2016-01-04",
"max_date": "2026-07-17"
},
"XOM": {
"symbol": "XOM",
"bars": 2649,
"min_date": "2016-01-04",
"max_date": "2026-07-17"
},
"JNJ": {
"symbol": "JNJ",
"bars": 2649,
"min_date": "2016-01-04",
"max_date": "2026-07-17"
}
},
"megacap_ok": false,
"megacap_deadline": "2013-12-14",
"sector_etfs": {
"XLB": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLC": {
"n": 2030,
"min": "2018-06-19",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLE": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLF": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLI": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLK": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLP": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLRE": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLU": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLV": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
},
"XLY": {
"n": 2649,
"min": "2016-01-04",
"max": "2026-07-17"
}
},
"sector_etfs_deep_count": 11,
"sector_etfs_ok": true,
"still_shallow_count": 2882,
"still_shallow_sample": [
"AACB",
"AACBR",
"AACBU",
"AACI",
"AACIU",
"AACIW",
"AACO",
"AACOU",
"AACOW",
"AACP",
"AACPR",
"AACPU",
"AACPW",
"AAPG",
"AARD",
"ABAT",
"ABCL",
"ABLV",
"ABLVW",
"ABNB"
],
"xlc_note": "XLC lists mid-2018 \u2192 Communication Services residual coverage from ~mid-2019.",
"target_history_days": 5000
},
"manifest_path": "backtest_snapshots/research.sqlite.manifest.json"
},
"harness": null
}