complete paper trading: auto-close on stop/target + My Trades realized record

resolve_open_trades walks the daily bars after each open trade and closes it at
the target (target hit) or stop (stop/ambiguous), leaving undecided trades open.
Runs nightly inside the outcome evaluator (so it's coordinated with fresh OHLCV)
and on its manual trigger. New "My Trades" section at the top of Signals → Track
Record shows realized hit-rate, expectancy (avg R), total R, total P&L, and a
closed-trades table — your actual results, separate from the theoretical signal
record below it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/scheduler.py

@@ -800,11 +800,14 @@ async def evaluate_outcomes() -> None:
             summary = await evaluate_pending_setups(
                 db, max_bars=settings.outcome_evaluation_max_bars
             )
+            from app.services import paper_trade_service
+            closed_trades = await paper_trade_service.resolve_open_trades(db)
 
         _runtime_progress(job_name, processed=1, total=1)
         _runtime_finish(
             job_name, "completed", processed=1, total=1,
-            message=f"Evaluated {summary['evaluated']}, pending {summary['still_pending']}",
+            message=f"Evaluated {summary['evaluated']}, pending {summary['still_pending']}, "
+                    f"{closed_trades} paper trade(s) closed",
         )
         logger.info(json.dumps({
             "event": "job_complete",

app/services/paper_trade_service.py

@@ -11,6 +11,13 @@ from app.exceptions import NotFoundError, ValidationError
 from app.models.ohlcv import OHLCVRecord
 from app.models.paper_trade import PaperTrade
 from app.models.ticker import Ticker
+from app.services.outcome_service import (
+    OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS,
+    OUTCOME_STOP_HIT,
+    OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT,
+    Bar,
+    evaluate_setup_against_bars,
+)
 
 
 async def _get_ticker(db: AsyncSession, symbol: str) -> Ticker:
@@ -146,3 +153,52 @@ async def close_trade(
     await db.commit()
     await db.refresh(trade)
     return trade
+
+
+async def resolve_open_trades(db: AsyncSession) -> int:
+    """Auto-close open trades whose stop or target was hit in the daily bars.
+
+    Walks the bars after each trade's open (same logic as the outcome evaluator).
+    Target hit → close at the target; stop (or an ambiguous same-bar touch) →
+    close at the stop. Trades that have hit neither stay open. Returns the count
+    closed.
+    """
+    result = await db.execute(select(PaperTrade).where(PaperTrade.status == "open"))
+    open_trades = list(result.scalars().all())
+    if not open_trades:
+        return 0
+
+    closed = 0
+    for trade in open_trades:
+        bars_result = await db.execute(
+            select(OHLCVRecord.date, OHLCVRecord.high, OHLCVRecord.low)
+            .where(
+                OHLCVRecord.ticker_id == trade.ticker_id,
+                OHLCVRecord.date > trade.opened_at.date(),
+            )
+            .order_by(OHLCVRecord.date.asc())
+        )
+        bars = [Bar(date=d, high=h, low=lo) for d, h, lo in bars_result.all()]
+        if not bars:
+            continue
+
+        # max_bars beyond the data so a still-open trade returns undecided (not "expired").
+        outcome, outcome_date = evaluate_setup_against_bars(
+            trade.direction, trade.stop_loss, trade.target, bars, max_bars=len(bars) + 1
+        )
+        if outcome == OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT:
+            trade.close_price = trade.target
+        elif outcome in (OUTCOME_STOP_HIT, OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS):
+            trade.close_price = trade.stop_loss
+        else:
+            continue
+
+        trade.status = "closed"
+        trade.closed_at = datetime.combine(
+            outcome_date, datetime.min.time(), tzinfo=timezone.utc
+        )
+        closed += 1
+
+    if closed:
+        await db.commit()
+    return closed

frontend/src/components/signals/MyTradesPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+import { useMemo } from 'react';
+import { Link } from 'react-router-dom';
+import { usePaperTrades } from '../../hooks/usePaperTrades';
+import { tradePnl } from '../../lib/paperTrade';
+import { formatPrice } from '../../lib/format';
+import { Section } from '../ui/Section';
+import { Callout } from '../ui/Callout';
+
+function money(v: number): string {
+  return `${v >= 0 ? '+' : '−'}$${Math.abs(v).toFixed(2)}`;
+}
+function fmtR(v: number | null): string {
+  return v === null ? '—' : `${v > 0 ? '+' : ''}${v.toFixed(2)}R`;
+}
+function color(v: number | null): string {
+  if (v === null) return 'text-gray-400';
+  if (v > 0) return 'text-emerald-400';
+  if (v < 0) return 'text-red-400';
+  return 'text-gray-300';
+}
+
+function Stat({ label, value, valueClass = 'text-gray-100', sub }: {
+  label: string; value: string; valueClass?: string; sub?: string;
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div className="glass p-4">
+      <p className="section-index">{label}</p>
+      <p className={`num mt-1.5 text-2xl font-semibold ${valueClass}`}>{value}</p>
+      {sub && <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">{sub}</p>}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+export function MyTradesPanel() {
+  const { data: closed, isLoading } = usePaperTrades('closed');
+
+  const stats = useMemo(() => {
+    const rows = (closed ?? []).map((t) => ({ t, p: tradePnl(t) }));
+    const rs = rows.map((r) => r.p?.r).filter((r): r is number => r != null);
+    const pnls = rows.map((r) => r.p?.pnl ?? 0);
+    const wins = pnls.filter((p) => p > 0).length;
+    const losses = pnls.filter((p) => p < 0).length;
+    const decided = wins + losses;
+    return {
+      total: rows.length,
+      wins,
+      losses,
+      hitRate: decided ? (wins / decided) * 100 : null,
+      avgR: rs.length ? rs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / rs.length : null,
+      totalR: rs.length ? rs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) : null,
+      totalPnl: pnls.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0),
+      rows,
+    };
+  }, [closed]);
+
+  if (isLoading) return null;
+
+  return (
+    <Section title="My Trades" hint="your realized paper-trading results">
+      {stats.total === 0 ? (
+        <Callout variant="empty">
+          No closed trades yet. Take setups as paper trades and they’ll resolve here when price hits
+          the stop or target (or when you sell).
+        </Callout>
+      ) : (
+        <div className="space-y-4">
+          <div className="grid gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4">
+            <Stat label="Hit Rate" value={stats.hitRate != null ? `${stats.hitRate.toFixed(1)}%` : '—'} sub={`${stats.wins}W / ${stats.losses}L`} />
+            <Stat label="Expectancy" value={fmtR(stats.avgR)} valueClass={color(stats.avgR)} sub="avg R per closed trade" />
+            <Stat label="Total R" value={fmtR(stats.totalR)} valueClass={color(stats.totalR)} sub={`${stats.total} closed`} />
+            <Stat label="Total P&L" value={money(stats.totalPnl)} valueClass={color(stats.totalPnl)} sub="realized, all closed" />
+          </div>
+
+          <div className="glass overflow-x-auto">
+            <table className="w-full text-sm">
+              <thead>
+                <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Ticker</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Dir</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Entry</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Exit</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">P&L</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">R</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Closed</th>
+                </tr>
+              </thead>
+              <tbody>
+                {stats.rows.map(({ t, p }) => (
+                  <tr key={t.id} className="border-b border-white/[0.04] hover:bg-white/[0.03]">
+                    <td className="px-4 py-2.5">
+                      <Link to={`/ticker/${t.symbol}`} className="font-medium text-blue-300 hover:text-blue-200">{t.symbol}</Link>
+                    </td>
+                    <td className="px-4 py-2.5">
+                      <span className={`num text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase ${t.direction === 'long' ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>{t.direction}</span>
+                    </td>
+                    <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-gray-300">{formatPrice(t.entry_price)}</td>
+                    <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-gray-300">{t.close_price != null ? formatPrice(t.close_price) : '—'}</td>
+                    <td className={`num px-4 py-2.5 text-right font-semibold ${p ? color(p.pnl) : 'text-gray-500'}`}>{p ? money(p.pnl) : '—'}</td>
+                    <td className={`num px-4 py-2.5 text-right ${p?.r != null ? color(p.r) : 'text-gray-500'}`}>{p?.r != null ? fmtR(p.r) : '—'}</td>
+                    <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-gray-500">{t.closed_at ? new Date(t.closed_at).toLocaleDateString() : '—'}</td>
+                  </tr>
+                ))}
+              </tbody>
+            </table>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </Section>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/signals/TrackRecordPanel.tsx

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import { SkeletonCard } from '../ui/Skeleton';
 import { useToast } from '../ui/Toast';
 import { RECOMMENDATION_ACTION_LABELS } from '../../lib/recommendation';
 import { BacktestPanel } from './BacktestPanel';
+import { MyTradesPanel } from './MyTradesPanel';
 import type { OutcomeBucketStats } from '../../lib/types';
 
 function fmtR(value: number | null): string {
@@ -138,6 +139,10 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
+      {/* Your real, realized results come first; the signal/theoretical record follows. */}
+      <MyTradesPanel />
+      <div className="border-t border-white/[0.06]" />
+
       <div className="glass-sm flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3 px-4 py-3">
         <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-center gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
           <input

frontend/tsconfig.tsbuildinfo

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"root":["./src/app.tsx","./src/main.tsx","./src/vite-env.d.ts","./src/api/activation.ts","./src/api/admin.ts","./src/api/auth.ts","./src/api/client.ts","./src/api/fundamentals.ts","./src/api/health.ts","./src/api/indicators.ts","./src/api/ingestion.ts","./src/api/jobs.ts","./src/api/market.ts","./src/api/ohlcv.ts","./src/api/papertrades.ts","./src/api/performance.ts","./src/api/scores.ts","./src/api/sentiment.ts","./src/api/sr-levels.ts","./src/api/tickers.ts","./src/api/trades.ts","./src/api/watchlist.ts","./src/components/admin/activationsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/alertsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/datacleanup.tsx","./src/components/admin/jobcontrols.tsx","./src/components/admin/pipelinereadinesspanel.tsx","./src/components/admin/recommendationsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/sentimentprovidersettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/settingsform.tsx","./src/components/admin/tickermanagement.tsx","./src/components/admin/tickeruniversebootstrap.tsx","./src/components/admin/usertable.tsx","./src/components/auth/protectedroute.tsx","./src/components/charts/candlestickchart.tsx","./src/components/dashboard/opentradespanel.tsx","./src/components/layout/appshell.tsx","./src/components/layout/mobilenav.tsx","./src/components/layout/sidebar.tsx","./src/components/rankings/rankingstable.tsx","./src/components/rankings/weightsform.tsx","./src/components/scanner/tradetable.tsx","./src/components/signals/backtestpanel.tsx","./src/components/signals/setupspanel.tsx","./src/components/signals/trackrecordpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/dimensionbreakdownpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/fundamentalspanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/indicatorselector.tsx","./src/components/ticker/recommendationpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/sroverlay.tsx","./src/components/ticker/sentimentpanel.tsx","./src/components/ui/badge.tsx","./src/components/ui/button.tsx","./src/components/ui/callout.tsx","./src/components/ui/confirmdialog.tsx","./src/components/ui/disclosure.tsx","./src/components/ui/dropdown.tsx","./src/components/ui/field.tsx","./src/components/ui/pageheader.tsx","./src/components/ui/scorecard.tsx","./src/components/ui/section.tsx","./src/components/ui/skeleton.tsx","./src/components/ui/tabs.tsx","./src/components/ui/toast.tsx","./src/components/watchlist/addtickerform.tsx","./src/components/watchlist/watchlisttable.tsx","./src/hooks/useactivation.ts","./src/hooks/useadmin.ts","./src/hooks/useauth.ts","./src/hooks/usefetchsymboldata.ts","./src/hooks/usemarketregime.ts","./src/hooks/usepapertrades.ts","./src/hooks/useperformance.ts","./src/hooks/userisksettings.ts","./src/hooks/usescores.ts","./src/hooks/usetickerdetail.ts","./src/hooks/usetickers.ts","./src/hooks/usetrades.ts","./src/hooks/usewatchlist.ts","./src/lib/format.ts","./src/lib/ingestionstatus.ts","./src/lib/papertrade.ts","./src/lib/position.ts","./src/lib/qualification.ts","./src/lib/recommendation.ts","./src/lib/regime.ts","./src/lib/types.ts","./src/pages/adminpage.tsx","./src/pages/dashboardpage.tsx","./src/pages/loginpage.tsx","./src/pages/marketpage.tsx","./src/pages/registerpage.tsx","./src/pages/signalspage.tsx","./src/pages/tickerdetailpage.tsx","./src/stores/authstore.ts"],"version":"5.6.3"}
+{"root":["./src/app.tsx","./src/main.tsx","./src/vite-env.d.ts","./src/api/activation.ts","./src/api/admin.ts","./src/api/auth.ts","./src/api/client.ts","./src/api/fundamentals.ts","./src/api/health.ts","./src/api/indicators.ts","./src/api/ingestion.ts","./src/api/jobs.ts","./src/api/market.ts","./src/api/ohlcv.ts","./src/api/papertrades.ts","./src/api/performance.ts","./src/api/scores.ts","./src/api/sentiment.ts","./src/api/sr-levels.ts","./src/api/tickers.ts","./src/api/trades.ts","./src/api/watchlist.ts","./src/components/admin/activationsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/alertsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/datacleanup.tsx","./src/components/admin/jobcontrols.tsx","./src/components/admin/pipelinereadinesspanel.tsx","./src/components/admin/recommendationsettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/sentimentprovidersettings.tsx","./src/components/admin/settingsform.tsx","./src/components/admin/tickermanagement.tsx","./src/components/admin/tickeruniversebootstrap.tsx","./src/components/admin/usertable.tsx","./src/components/auth/protectedroute.tsx","./src/components/charts/candlestickchart.tsx","./src/components/dashboard/opentradespanel.tsx","./src/components/layout/appshell.tsx","./src/components/layout/mobilenav.tsx","./src/components/layout/sidebar.tsx","./src/components/rankings/rankingstable.tsx","./src/components/rankings/weightsform.tsx","./src/components/scanner/tradetable.tsx","./src/components/signals/backtestpanel.tsx","./src/components/signals/mytradespanel.tsx","./src/components/signals/setupspanel.tsx","./src/components/signals/trackrecordpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/dimensionbreakdownpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/fundamentalspanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/indicatorselector.tsx","./src/components/ticker/recommendationpanel.tsx","./src/components/ticker/sroverlay.tsx","./src/components/ticker/sentimentpanel.tsx","./src/components/ui/badge.tsx","./src/components/ui/button.tsx","./src/components/ui/callout.tsx","./src/components/ui/confirmdialog.tsx","./src/components/ui/disclosure.tsx","./src/components/ui/dropdown.tsx","./src/components/ui/field.tsx","./src/components/ui/pageheader.tsx","./src/components/ui/scorecard.tsx","./src/components/ui/section.tsx","./src/components/ui/skeleton.tsx","./src/components/ui/tabs.tsx","./src/components/ui/toast.tsx","./src/components/watchlist/addtickerform.tsx","./src/components/watchlist/watchlisttable.tsx","./src/hooks/useactivation.ts","./src/hooks/useadmin.ts","./src/hooks/useauth.ts","./src/hooks/usefetchsymboldata.ts","./src/hooks/usemarketregime.ts","./src/hooks/usepapertrades.ts","./src/hooks/useperformance.ts","./src/hooks/userisksettings.ts","./src/hooks/usescores.ts","./src/hooks/usetickerdetail.ts","./src/hooks/usetickers.ts","./src/hooks/usetrades.ts","./src/hooks/usewatchlist.ts","./src/lib/format.ts","./src/lib/ingestionstatus.ts","./src/lib/papertrade.ts","./src/lib/position.ts","./src/lib/qualification.ts","./src/lib/recommendation.ts","./src/lib/regime.ts","./src/lib/types.ts","./src/pages/adminpage.tsx","./src/pages/dashboardpage.tsx","./src/pages/loginpage.tsx","./src/pages/marketpage.tsx","./src/pages/registerpage.tsx","./src/pages/signalspage.tsx","./src/pages/tickerdetailpage.tsx","./src/stores/authstore.ts"],"version":"5.6.3"}

tests/unit/test_paper_trade_service.py

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-from datetime import date, datetime, timezone
+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 import pytest
 
@@ -81,3 +81,46 @@ async def test_double_close_rejected(session):
     await svc.close_trade(session, 1, trade.id)
     with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
         await svc.close_trade(session, 1, trade.id)
+
+
+async def _add_bars(session, ticker_id: int, highs_lows: list[tuple[float, float]], start: date) -> None:
+    for i, (hi, lo) in enumerate(highs_lows):
+        mid = (hi + lo) / 2
+        session.add(OHLCVRecord(ticker_id=ticker_id, date=start + timedelta(days=i + 1),
+                                open=mid, high=hi, low=lo, close=mid, volume=1))
+    await session.commit()
+
+
+async def test_resolve_closes_on_target(session):
+    tid = await _seed(session, "AAA", close=100.0)
+    trade = await svc.create_trade(session, 1, symbol="AAA", direction="long",
+                                   entry_price=100.0, shares=10, stop_loss=95.0, target=110.0)
+    # later bars: a day that trades up through 110
+    await _add_bars(session, tid, [(103, 101), (111, 108)], start=date.today())
+    closed = await svc.resolve_open_trades(session)
+    assert closed == 1
+    await session.refresh(trade)
+    assert trade.status == "closed"
+    assert trade.close_price == 110.0  # closed at target
+
+
+async def test_resolve_closes_on_stop(session):
+    tid = await _seed(session, "AAA", close=100.0)
+    trade = await svc.create_trade(session, 1, symbol="AAA", direction="long",
+                                   entry_price=100.0, shares=10, stop_loss=95.0, target=110.0)
+    await _add_bars(session, tid, [(101, 94)], start=date.today())  # low pierces stop
+    closed = await svc.resolve_open_trades(session)
+    assert closed == 1
+    await session.refresh(trade)
+    assert trade.close_price == 95.0  # closed at stop
+
+
+async def test_resolve_leaves_open_when_neither_hit(session):
+    tid = await _seed(session, "AAA", close=100.0)
+    await svc.create_trade(session, 1, symbol="AAA", direction="long",
+                           entry_price=100.0, shares=10, stop_loss=95.0, target=110.0)
+    await _add_bars(session, tid, [(103, 98), (104, 99)], start=date.today())  # range-bound
+    closed = await svc.resolve_open_trades(session)
+    assert closed == 0
+    rows = await svc.list_trades(session, 1, status="open")
+    assert len(rows) == 1