feat(backtest): make an incomplete run visibly incomplete

A snapshot whose schema predated a migration made every _fetch_columns call
raise, both dispatch paths caught the per-ticker exception and continued, and
the run wrote a report with zero candidates that was indistinguishable from an
honest run that found no setups. Nothing said the run had lost its universe.

run_backtest now builds a completeness ledger and emits it as
report["data_quality"]: expected / loaded / evaluated counts, per-symbol
failures with stage and reason, bar-less symbols named, and benchmark
availability. Every universe symbol lands in exactly one terminal bucket and
the arithmetic is checked, so a counter that stops being maintained reports
itself as a failure rather than under-counting quietly.

Benchmark availability is a separate axis: without SPY, residual 12-1 momentum
silently degrades to raw 12-1, and the report now says so instead of leaving it
in a log line.

Three statuses, because severity differs. "failed" (nothing evaluated, empty
universe, unbalanced ledger, missing benchmark) replaces the performance tiles
with the callout rather than warning above them — a banner over ordinary-looking
numbers is exactly how the zero-candidate run would still have read as a quiet
week. "degraded" keeps the tiles with a note. A report with no data_quality
block reads as unknown, not clean; defaulting old reports to complete would
reproduce the bug being fixed.

The same gate applies to the two other consumers of backtest numbers:
productionBaseRates returns null for a failed run, and EvaluationPanel will not
report drift against a broken baseline.

"complete" means the processing and coverage checks passed. It does not mean
the prices are correct — a complete run over silently wrong bars is still
complete, and the card says so.

Also threads an explicit terminal-events option through the replay, validated
before dispatch so a stale events file aborts the run instead of quietly
degrading it. Verified against a healthy snapshot (degraded, 505/506) and one
with tickers.cik dropped (failed, 0/506, 506 fetch failures).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01HAH7vVtn7qbcn1EVheecHQ

app/services/backtest_service.py

@@ -50,14 +50,16 @@ import statistics
 from collections import defaultdict
 from collections.abc import Callable
 from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from datetime import date, datetime, timezone
 from types import SimpleNamespace
 from typing import Any
 
-from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy import func, select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.config import settings
+from app.models.ohlcv import OHLCVRecord
 from app.models.ticker import Ticker
 from app.services import settings_store
 from app.services.admin_service import get_activation_config, update_setting
@@ -497,16 +499,40 @@ def _replay_ticker(
     benchmark_closes: dict[date, float] | None = None,
     target_model: str = PRODUCTION_GTL_TARGET_MODEL,
     cadence: str = DEFAULT_BACKTEST_CADENCE,
+    terminal_date: date | None = None,
 ) -> list[dict]:
-    """Walk one ticker at the selected cadence and resolve each setup outcome."""
+    """Walk one ticker at the selected cadence and resolve each setup outcome.
+
+    ``terminal_date`` marks a symbol whose final bar is a research terminal mark
+    (a confirmed near-total loss written by ``prep_survivorship_snapshot.py``).
+    The normal loop stops ``HORIZON`` bars early so every setup has a full
+    resolution window, which would hide every signal in the last 29 real bars —
+    exactly the ones a collapse resolves. For a marked symbol the walk instead
+    runs through the last *real* bar and never proposes a setup on the synthetic
+    one. Nothing else changes: outcomes still come from the real forward bars,
+    and a setup the shortened history cannot resolve is skipped rather than
+    counted as an expiry.
+    """
     cadence = validate_backtest_cadence(cadence)
     step_sessions = backtest_step_sessions(cadence)
     candidates: list[dict] = []
     n = len(records)
-    if n < MIN_LOOKBACK + HORIZON:
-        return candidates
 
-    for i in range(MIN_LOOKBACK - 1, n - HORIZON, step_sessions):
+    if terminal_date is not None:
+        if not records or records[-1].date != terminal_date:
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"{symbol}: terminal event {terminal_date} does not match the final bar "
+                f"{records[-1].date if records else None}"
+            )
+        if n < MIN_LOOKBACK + 1:
+            return candidates
+        stop_index = n - 1  # exclusive: the last signal date is the last real bar
+    else:
+        if n < MIN_LOOKBACK + HORIZON:
+            return candidates
+        stop_index = n - HORIZON
+
+    for i in range(MIN_LOOKBACK - 1, stop_index, step_sessions):
         window = records[: i + 1]
         forward = records[i + 1 :]
         forward_bars = [Bar(date=r.date, high=r.high, low=r.low) for r in forward]
@@ -1278,6 +1304,7 @@ def _replay_and_signals(
     target_model: str = PRODUCTION_GTL_TARGET_MODEL,
     cadence: str = DEFAULT_BACKTEST_CADENCE,
     signal_only: bool = False,
+    terminal_date: date | None = None,
 ) -> tuple[list[dict], dict]:
     """The CPU-bound per-ticker work, as a top-level (picklable) function so it can
     run in a worker process. Takes primitive column arrays (cheap to pickle),
@@ -1303,6 +1330,7 @@ def _replay_and_signals(
             benchmark_closes,
             target_model,
             cadence,
+            terminal_date,
         )
     return (
         candidates,
@@ -1475,6 +1503,217 @@ async def _rollback_quietly(db: AsyncSession, context: str) -> None:
         logger.exception("Session rollback after %s also failed", context)
 
 
+# Failures are listed individually up to this many; beyond it the report keeps
+# the counts and says the list was truncated.
+DATA_QUALITY_FAILURE_SAMPLE = 25
+# Bar-less universe rows are named rather than counted while the list is short.
+NO_DATA_SAMPLE = 5
+
+
+def _has_short_history(columns: tuple) -> int:
+    """1 when a loaded ticker has too few bars for ``_replay_ticker`` to resolve
+    a single outcome — a recent listing, not an error, but worth counting since
+    it looks identical to "found no setups" in the report."""
+    return int(len(columns[0]) < MIN_LOOKBACK + HORIZON)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class _DataQuality:
+    """Completeness ledger for one backtest run.
+
+    Both dispatch paths swallow per-ticker exceptions so a single unreadable
+    name can't abort a 500-symbol replay. That is right for a long run and wrong
+    for its report: a snapshot whose schema predates a migration fails *every*
+    ``_fetch_columns`` call and still writes a report that reads like an
+    ordinary one that simply found no setups. This records what actually
+    happened so the report — and the UI — can say so.
+
+    Every universe symbol ends in exactly one of ``no_data``, ``failures`` or
+    ``evaluated``. ``short_history`` is a subset of ``evaluated`` (loaded, but
+    too few bars to produce a setup), not a fourth bucket. :meth:`as_report`
+    checks the three against ``expected`` and treats an unbalanced ledger as a
+    failure in its own right — a counter that stopped being maintained should
+    surface as loudly as a missing ticker.
+
+    **What ``complete`` does and does not claim.** It means the run's processing
+    and coverage checks passed: every expected symbol was loaded and evaluated,
+    and the benchmark was there. It says nothing about whether the underlying
+    prices are *correct* — a complete run over silently wrong bars is still
+    complete. Splits, adjustment drift and bad vendor prints are a different
+    problem, and this ledger must not be read as clearing them.
+    """
+
+    expected: int = 0
+    evaluated: int = 0
+    short_history: int = 0
+    no_data_symbols: list[str] = field(default_factory=list)
+    failures: list[dict] = field(default_factory=list)
+    benchmark_sessions: int = 0
+    benchmark_error: str | None = None
+    benchmark_first: date | None = None
+    benchmark_last: date | None = None
+
+    def record_failure(self, symbol: str, stage: str, exc: BaseException) -> None:
+        """Stage is ``fetch`` (reading bars) or ``replay`` (evaluating them).
+
+        Only the first line is kept: a SQLAlchemy error appends the full SQL and
+        its parameters, which buries the one useful clause ("no such column:
+        tickers.cik") under 300 characters of SELECT. The full traceback is
+        already in the run log.
+        """
+        first_line = str(exc).strip().splitlines()[0] if str(exc).strip() else ""
+        self.failures.append({
+            "symbol": symbol,
+            "stage": stage,
+            "error": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {first_line}"[:300],
+        })
+
+    def record_benchmark(self, closes: dict[date, float], error: BaseException | None) -> None:
+        self.benchmark_sessions = len(closes)
+        self.benchmark_error = f"{type(error).__name__}: {error}"[:300] if error else None
+        if closes:
+            self.benchmark_first = min(closes)
+            self.benchmark_last = max(closes)
+
+    def as_report(self) -> dict:
+        # Lazily imported like ``_load_benchmark_closes_for_backtest`` does, so
+        # building a report never drags in the provider stack.
+        from app.services.benchmark_service import BENCHMARK_SYMBOL
+
+        by_stage: dict[str, int] = defaultdict(int)
+        for entry in self.failures:
+            by_stage[entry["stage"]] += 1
+        no_data = len(self.no_data_symbols)
+        accounted = no_data + len(self.failures) + self.evaluated
+        balanced = accounted == self.expected
+
+        # A run is "failed" when its headline numbers can't be read as the
+        # strategy the report claims to describe; "degraded" when the strategy
+        # is intact but ran on less than the whole universe.
+        reasons: list[str] = []
+        if self.expected == 0:
+            reasons.append("no symbols in the backtest universe")
+        elif self.evaluated == 0:
+            reasons.append("no symbol was evaluated successfully")
+        if not balanced:
+            reasons.append(
+                f"ledger does not balance: {accounted} symbols accounted for, "
+                f"{self.expected} expected"
+            )
+        if self.benchmark_sessions == 0:
+            # Residual 12-1 momentum silently degrades to raw 12-1 without a
+            # benchmark stream, so the gate is not the production gate.
+            reasons.append(
+                "benchmark unavailable — residual momentum fell back to raw momentum"
+                + (f" ({self.benchmark_error})" if self.benchmark_error else "")
+            )
+        failed = bool(reasons)
+
+        # These strings are shown verbatim in the UI, so they read as sentences.
+        def _symbols(n: int) -> str:
+            return f"{n} symbol" if n == 1 else f"{n} symbols"
+
+        if by_stage.get("fetch"):
+            reasons.append(f"{_symbols(by_stage['fetch'])} failed to load")
+        if by_stage.get("replay"):
+            reasons.append(f"{_symbols(by_stage['replay'])} failed during replay")
+        if no_data:
+            # Named while the list is short, because a universe row with no bars
+            # is a standing wart that recurs on every run until someone clears
+            # it — an unnamed count would just nag.
+            named = ", ".join(sorted(self.no_data_symbols)[:NO_DATA_SAMPLE])
+            if no_data > NO_DATA_SAMPLE:
+                named += ", …"
+            reasons.append(f"{_symbols(no_data)} had no stored bars ({named})")
+
+        return {
+            "status": "failed" if failed else ("degraded" if reasons else "ok"),
+            "complete": not reasons,
+            "reasons": reasons,
+            "expected": self.expected,
+            "loaded": self.expected - no_data - by_stage.get("fetch", 0),
+            "evaluated": self.evaluated,
+            "no_data": no_data,
+            "no_data_symbols": sorted(self.no_data_symbols)[:NO_DATA_SAMPLE],
+            "short_history": self.short_history,
+            "failed": len(self.failures),
+            "failures_by_stage": dict(by_stage),
+            "failures": self.failures[:DATA_QUALITY_FAILURE_SAMPLE],
+            "failures_truncated": len(self.failures) > DATA_QUALITY_FAILURE_SAMPLE,
+            "benchmark": {
+                "symbol": BENCHMARK_SYMBOL,
+                "sessions": self.benchmark_sessions,
+                "first": self.benchmark_first.isoformat() if self.benchmark_first else None,
+                "last": self.benchmark_last.isoformat() if self.benchmark_last else None,
+                "momentum_basis": "residual" if self.benchmark_sessions else "raw_fallback",
+                "error": self.benchmark_error,
+            },
+        }
+
+
+async def _load_backtest_symbols(db: AsyncSession) -> list[str]:
+    """Every ticker with stored history — deliberately *not* ``active_only``.
+
+    A replay grades what the strategy could have selected at each past date, so
+    it must see symbols that have since been delisted or dropped out of the
+    index. Filtering on today's membership here is precisely how a universe
+    becomes the survivors: the audit in ``docs/research/survivorship-audit.md``
+    measured 2.09 Sharpe against 1.57 for the same window on that difference
+    alone. Guarded by
+    ``tests/unit/test_universe_membership.py::test_todays_membership_does_not_erase_yesterdays_candidates``.
+
+    Plain strings, not Ticker instances: the rollbacks in the replay loop expire
+    any ORM objects held across them, and touching an expired attribute
+    afterwards triggers sync lazy-loading, which raises on an AsyncSession.
+    """
+    result = await db.execute(select(Ticker.symbol).order_by(Ticker.symbol))
+    return list(result.scalars().all())
+
+
+class TerminalEventError(RuntimeError):
+    """A terminal-event map does not describe the snapshot it was given."""
+
+
+async def _validate_terminal_events(
+    db: AsyncSession, terminal_events: dict[str, date], symbols: list[str]
+) -> None:
+    """Check every mapped symbol before any replay is dispatched.
+
+    ``_replay_ticker`` also rejects a mismatch, but both dispatch paths swallow
+    per-ticker exceptions so the replay survives one unreadable name — which
+    would turn a stale events file into a quietly incomplete report instead of a
+    failure. Validating up front makes the whole run fail, before any work.
+    """
+    tracked = set(symbols)
+    missing = sorted(set(terminal_events) - tracked)
+
+    rows = await db.execute(
+        select(Ticker.symbol, func.max(OHLCVRecord.date))
+        .join(OHLCVRecord, OHLCVRecord.ticker_id == Ticker.id)
+        .where(Ticker.symbol.in_(list(terminal_events)))
+        .group_by(Ticker.symbol)
+    )
+    final_bar = dict(rows.all())
+
+    mismatched = []
+    for symbol, expected in sorted(terminal_events.items()):
+        if symbol in missing:
+            continue
+        actual = final_bar.get(symbol)
+        if actual != expected:
+            mismatched.append(f"{symbol}: events file says {expected}, final bar is {actual}")
+
+    problems = []
+    if missing:
+        problems.append(f"symbols not in this snapshot: {', '.join(missing)}")
+    if mismatched:
+        problems.append("; ".join(mismatched))
+    if problems:
+        raise TerminalEventError(
+            "Terminal-event map does not match the snapshot — " + " | ".join(problems)
+        )
+
+
 async def _fetch_columns(db: AsyncSession, symbol: str) -> tuple | None:
     """Read one ticker's OHLCV and detach it to primitive column arrays in the
     event loop (safe ORM access), ready to hand to a worker. None if no data."""
@@ -4066,19 +4305,25 @@ async def run_backtest(
     *,
     target_model: str = PRODUCTION_GTL_TARGET_MODEL,
     cadence: str = DEFAULT_BACKTEST_CADENCE,
+    terminal_events: dict[str, date] | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
-    """Replay every ticker and aggregate the Phase-1 reports for the current config."""
+    """Replay every ticker and aggregate the Phase-1 reports for the current config.
+
+    ``terminal_events`` maps a symbol to the date of a research terminal mark on
+    its final bar (see ``scripts/prep_survivorship_snapshot.py``). Unmapped
+    symbols keep the ordinary replay bounds, so an empty or omitted map leaves
+    every existing run byte-identical.
+    """
     target_model = validate_backtest_target_model(target_model)
     cadence = validate_backtest_cadence(cadence)
+    terminal_events = terminal_events or {}
     config = await get_recommendation_config(db)
     activation = await get_activation_config(db)
 
-    # Plain strings, not Ticker instances: the rollbacks below expire any ORM
-    # objects held across them, and touching an expired attribute afterwards
-    # triggers sync lazy-loading, which raises on an AsyncSession.
-    result = await db.execute(select(Ticker.symbol).order_by(Ticker.symbol))
-    symbols = list(result.scalars().all())
+    symbols = await _load_backtest_symbols(db)
     total = len(symbols)
+    if terminal_events:
+        await _validate_terminal_events(db, terminal_events, symbols)
     rank_only_symbols = await _load_research_rank_only_symbols(db)
     if rank_only_symbols:
         logger.info(json.dumps({
@@ -4086,6 +4331,7 @@ async def run_backtest(
             "count": len(rank_only_symbols),
         }))
 
+    quality = _DataQuality(expected=total)
     candidates: list[dict] = []
     # Signal IC remains a weekly, non-overlapping diagnostic regardless of the
     # entry cadence. Production activation ranks are assigned from candidates
@@ -4096,13 +4342,16 @@ async def run_backtest(
     # if SPY benchmark data is unavailable, the residual signal simply won't be
     # emitted and the rest of the report remains valid.
     benchmark_closes: dict[date, float] = {}
+    benchmark_error: Exception | None = None
     try:
         benchmark_closes = await _load_benchmark_closes_for_backtest(
             db, days=settings.ohlcv_history_days + 365
         )
-    except Exception:
+    except Exception as exc:
+        benchmark_error = exc
         logger.exception("Benchmark load for residual momentum failed")
         await _rollback_quietly(db, "benchmark load")
+    quality.record_benchmark(benchmark_closes, benchmark_error)
 
     def _merge(result: tuple[list[dict], dict]) -> None:
         cands, series = result
@@ -4135,31 +4384,48 @@ async def run_backtest(
         with pool:
             for start in range(0, total, chunk):
                 batch = symbols[start : start + chunk]
-                futures = []
+                # Symbol travels with its future: ``gather`` returns bare
+                # exceptions, so without the pairing a worker failure can't name
+                # the ticker it lost.
+                dispatched: list[tuple[str, Any]] = []
                 for symbol in batch:
                     try:
                         columns = await _fetch_columns(db, symbol)
-                    except Exception:
+                    except Exception as exc:
+                        quality.record_failure(symbol, "fetch", exc)
                         logger.exception("Backtest fetch failed for %s", symbol)
                         await _rollback_quietly(db, f"fetch for {symbol}")
                         continue
-                    if columns is not None:
-                        futures.append(loop.run_in_executor(
-                            pool,
-                            _replay_and_signals,
-                            symbol,
-                            columns,
-                            config,
-                            activation,
-                            benchmark_closes,
-                            target_model,
-                            cadence,
-                            symbol in rank_only_symbols,
-                        ))
-                for result in await asyncio.gather(*futures, return_exceptions=True):
-                    if isinstance(result, Exception):
-                        logger.error(json.dumps({"event": "backtest_worker_error", "message": str(result)}))
+                    if columns is None:
+                        quality.no_data_symbols.append(symbol)
+                        continue
+                    quality.short_history += _has_short_history(columns)
+                    dispatched.append((symbol, loop.run_in_executor(
+                        pool,
+                        _replay_and_signals,
+                        symbol,
+                        columns,
+                        config,
+                        activation,
+                        benchmark_closes,
+                        target_model,
+                        cadence,
+                        symbol in rank_only_symbols,
+                        terminal_events.get(symbol),
+                    )))
+                results = await asyncio.gather(
+                    *(fut for _, fut in dispatched), return_exceptions=True
+                )
+                for (symbol, _), result in zip(dispatched, results):
+                    if isinstance(result, BaseException):
+                        quality.record_failure(symbol, "replay", result)
+                        logger.error(json.dumps({
+                            "event": "backtest_worker_error",
+                            "symbol": symbol,
+                            "message": str(result),
+                        }))
                     else:
+                        quality.evaluated += 1
                         _merge(result)
                 done += len(batch)
                 if progress_cb is not None:
@@ -4172,21 +4438,34 @@ async def run_backtest(
                 progress_cb(index, total, symbol)
             try:
                 columns = await _fetch_columns(db, symbol)
-                if columns is not None:
-                    _merge(await asyncio.to_thread(
-                        _replay_and_signals,
-                        symbol,
-                        columns,
-                        config,
-                        activation,
-                        benchmark_closes,
-                        target_model,
-                        cadence,
-                        symbol in rank_only_symbols,
-                    ))
-            except Exception:
+            except Exception as exc:
+                quality.record_failure(symbol, "fetch", exc)
+                logger.exception("Backtest fetch failed for %s", symbol)
+                await _rollback_quietly(db, f"fetch for {symbol}")
+                continue
+            if columns is None:
+                quality.no_data_symbols.append(symbol)
+                continue
+            quality.short_history += _has_short_history(columns)
+            try:
+                _merge(await asyncio.to_thread(
+                    _replay_and_signals,
+                    symbol,
+                    columns,
+                    config,
+                    activation,
+                    benchmark_closes,
+                    target_model,
+                    cadence,
+                    symbol in rank_only_symbols,
+                    terminal_events.get(symbol),
+                ))
+            except Exception as exc:
+                quality.record_failure(symbol, "replay", exc)
                 logger.exception("Backtest replay failed for %s", symbol)
                 await _rollback_quietly(db, f"replay for {symbol}")
+                continue
+            quality.evaluated += 1
 
     if progress_cb is not None and total:
         progress_cb(total, total, "")
@@ -4298,12 +4577,21 @@ async def run_backtest(
             # backstop for whichever DB call actually failed.
             await _rollback_quietly(db, "portfolio simulation")
 
+    data_quality = quality.as_report()
+    if not data_quality["complete"]:
+        logger.warning(json.dumps({
+            "event": "backtest_incomplete",
+            "status": data_quality["status"],
+            "reasons": data_quality["reasons"],
+        }))
+
     report = {
         "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
         "tickers": total,
         "rank_only_tickers": len(rank_only_symbols),
         "candidates": len(candidates),
         "qualified": len(qualified),
+        "data_quality": data_quality,
         "params": {
             # Keep step_days for old report consumers; the value counts stored
             # market sessions rather than calendar days.

frontend/src/components/signals/BacktestDataQualityCard.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+import { Callout } from '../ui/Callout';
+import { Disclosure } from '../ui/Disclosure';
+import type { BacktestDataQuality } from '../../lib/types';
+
+/** How many stocks were expected, loaded and actually evaluated.
+ *
+ *  A run that lost every ticker still writes a report — the replay loop catches
+ *  per-ticker errors so one bad name can't abort a 500-symbol run — and that
+ *  report used to be indistinguishable from an honest one that found no setups.
+ *  When the status is `failed` the panel shows this instead of the performance
+ *  tiles, because a headline computed from a broken run is worse than none.
+ */
+export function BacktestDataQualityCard({ quality }: { quality: BacktestDataQuality }) {
+  const failed = quality.status === 'failed';
+  const { benchmark } = quality;
+
+  return (
+    <Callout variant={failed ? 'error' : 'warning'}>
+      <p className="font-medium">
+        {failed ? 'This run is not usable' : 'This run is incomplete'}
+      </p>
+      <ul className="mt-2 list-disc space-y-1 pl-4 text-xs opacity-90">
+        {quality.reasons.map((reason) => (
+          <li key={reason}>{reason}</li>
+        ))}
+      </ul>
+      <p className="mt-2 text-xs opacity-80">
+        {quality.evaluated} of {quality.expected} tickers evaluated
+        {quality.loaded !== quality.evaluated && <> · {quality.loaded} loaded</>}
+        {quality.short_history > 0 && (
+          <> · {quality.short_history} too short to trade</>
+        )}
+        {' · '}
+        {benchmark.momentum_basis === 'residual' ? (
+          <>
+            {benchmark.symbol} {benchmark.sessions} sessions
+            {benchmark.first && benchmark.last && (
+              <> ({benchmark.first} → {benchmark.last})</>
+            )}
+          </>
+        ) : (
+          <>no {benchmark.symbol} benchmark — momentum ran raw, not residual</>
+        )}
+      </p>
+      {failed && (
+        <p className="mt-2 text-xs opacity-80">
+          Performance figures are hidden for this run. Re-run the backtest once the
+          underlying data is readable.
+        </p>
+      )}
+      {/* Says what the check covers, so a clean run isn't read as a price audit. */}
+      <p className="mt-2 text-[11px] opacity-70">
+        Processing and coverage checks only — this does not verify that the underlying
+        prices are correct.
+      </p>
+      {quality.failures.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="mt-2">
+          <Disclosure summary={`Failures (${quality.failed})`}>
+            <ul className="space-y-1 font-mono text-[11px] opacity-80">
+              {quality.failures.map((f) => (
+                <li key={`${f.symbol}-${f.stage}`}>
+                  {f.symbol} · {f.stage} · {f.error}
+                </li>
+              ))}
+            </ul>
+            {quality.failures_truncated && (
+              <p className="mt-1 text-[11px] opacity-70">
+                Showing the first {quality.failures.length} of {quality.failed} — the
+                rest are in the run log.
+              </p>
+            )}
+          </Disclosure>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </Callout>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/signals/BacktestPanel.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import { Disclosure } from '../ui/Disclosure';
 import { Dropdown } from '../ui/Dropdown';
 import { Section } from '../ui/Section';
 import { useToast } from '../ui/Toast';
+import { BacktestDataQualityCard } from './BacktestDataQualityCard';
 import { BacktestRecommendationCard } from './BacktestRecommendationCard';
 import { PortfolioMonitorPanel } from './PortfolioMonitorPanel';
 
@@ -39,6 +40,8 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
   const [targetModel, setTargetModel] = useState<BacktestTargetModel>('production_gtl');
   const [cadence, setCadence] = useState<BacktestCadence>('weekly');
 
+  const quality = report?.data_quality ?? null;
+  const runIsUnusable = quality?.status === 'failed';
   const monitor = report?.portfolio_monitor ?? null;
   const activeStrategy =
     selectedStrategy || monitor?.production_strategy || monitor?.strategies[0]?.strategy || '';
@@ -89,8 +92,15 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
             <p className="section-index">Last run</p>
             {report ? (
               <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-400">
-                {timeAgo(report.generated_at)} · {report.tickers} tickers ·{' '}
-                {report.candidates} setups ({report.qualified} qualified) ·{' '}
+                {timeAgo(report.generated_at)} ·{' '}
+                {/* Evaluated over expected, not the universe size: "506 tickers"
+                    on a run that evaluated none was the misleading part. */}
+                <span className={quality && quality.status !== 'ok' ? 'text-amber-300' : undefined}>
+                  {quality
+                    ? `${quality.evaluated}/${quality.expected} tickers`
+                    : `${report.tickers} tickers`}
+                </span>{' '}
+                · {report.candidates} setups ({report.qualified} qualified) ·{' '}
                 {report.params.entry_cadence ?? 'weekly'},{' '}
                 {report.params.horizon_days}d horizon
                 {report.params.cost_per_side_pct != null && (
@@ -177,7 +187,20 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
           </Callout>
         )}
 
-        {report && (
+        {/* Completeness gates the headline. `failed` replaces the tiles rather
+            than warning above them — a banner over ordinary-looking numbers is
+            exactly how a zero-candidate run reads as a quiet week. */}
+        {report && quality && quality.status !== 'ok' && (
+          <BacktestDataQualityCard quality={quality} />
+        )}
+
+        {report && !quality && (
+          <p className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+            Completeness was not recorded for this run — it predates the check.
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {report && !runIsUnusable && (
           <>
             <PortfolioMonitorPanel
               monitor={monitor}

frontend/src/components/signals/EvaluationPanel.tsx

@@ -38,14 +38,18 @@ export function EvaluationPanel() {
   const { data: report } = useBacktestReport();
   const liveAvgR = perf?.overall.avg_r ?? null;
   const liveN = perf?.overall.total ?? 0;
-  const btAvgR = report?.overall_qualified.avg_r ?? null;
+  // A failed run's expectancy is not a baseline — comparing live results to it
+  // would report "drift" or "tracking" off numbers from a broken replay.
+  const btAvgR =
+    report?.data_quality?.status === 'failed' ? null : (report?.overall_qualified.avg_r ?? null);
   let status: PipelineStatus = 'building';
   if (liveAvgR != null && liveN >= MIN_MATURED) {
     status = btAvgR == null ? 'no-backtest' : liveAvgR >= btAvgR - DRIFT_TOLERANCE_R ? 'tracking' : 'drift';
   }
   const statusNote: Record<PipelineStatus, string> = {
     building: `Fewer than ~${MIN_MATURED} matured setups so far — too few to compare.`,
-    'no-backtest': 'Run the backtest to get a target/stop baseline to check against.',
+    'no-backtest':
+      'No usable backtest baseline to check against — run the backtest, or fix the data the last run reported as incomplete.',
     tracking:
       "Live setup outcomes are resolving in line with the backtest's target/stop model — the outcome-evaluation pipeline shows no look-ahead, config or data drift. (Checks the setup-grading pipeline, not the ATR-trail production book above.)",
     drift:

frontend/src/lib/baseRates.ts

@@ -44,9 +44,15 @@ const EXIT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
 
 /**
  * Pull the production strategy's full-history row out of a backtest report.
- * Returns null when the report hasn't run or has no production row.
+ * Returns null when the report hasn't run, failed its completeness check, or
+ * has no production row.
  */
 export function productionBaseRates(report: unknown): BaseRates | null {
+  // Base rates quoted next to a live setup carry no caveat, so a run that lost
+  // its universe must yield none at all rather than plausible-looking ones.
+  if ((report as { data_quality?: { status?: string } })?.data_quality?.status === 'failed') {
+    return null;
+  }
   const monitor = (report as { portfolio_monitor?: { production_strategy?: string; runs?: MonitorRun[] } })
     ?.portfolio_monitor;
   if (!monitor?.runs?.length) return null;

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -427,11 +427,39 @@ export interface BacktestSignalEvalRow {
   reliable: boolean;
 }
 
+export interface BacktestDataQuality {
+  /** `failed` = the headline can't be read as the strategy it claims to be. */
+  status: 'ok' | 'degraded' | 'failed';
+  complete: boolean;
+  reasons: string[];
+  expected: number;
+  loaded: number;
+  evaluated: number;
+  no_data: number;
+  no_data_symbols: string[];
+  short_history: number;
+  failed: number;
+  failures_by_stage: Record<string, number>;
+  failures: { symbol: string; stage: string; error: string }[];
+  failures_truncated: boolean;
+  benchmark: {
+    symbol: string;
+    sessions: number;
+    first: string | null;
+    last: string | null;
+    momentum_basis: 'residual' | 'raw_fallback';
+    error: string | null;
+  };
+}
+
 export interface BacktestReport {
   generated_at: string;
   tickers: number;
   candidates: number;
   qualified: number;
+  /** Absent on reports generated before completeness tracking — treat as
+   *  unknown rather than clean; that assumption is the bug this block fixes. */
+  data_quality?: BacktestDataQuality;
   params: {
     step_days: number;
     step_sessions?: number;
@@ -1010,9 +1038,23 @@ export interface TickerUniverseBootstrapResult {
   total_universe_symbols: number;
   added: number;
   already_tracked: number;
+  /** Always 0 — pruning marks symbols untracked and never deletes rows. */
   deleted: number;
+  /** Symbols dropped from the scanner; their bars and linked records remain. */
+  untracked?: number;
+  untracked_symbols?: string[];
+  /** Symbols that rejoined the universe and were returned to the live path. */
+  retracked?: number;
+  /** Absent from the universe but manually owned, so a prune left them alone. */
+  kept_manual?: string[];
+  kept_manual_count?: number;
+  /** False when the live fetch failed (cache/seed fallback) — nothing was recorded. */
+  membership_observed?: boolean;
+  membership_opened?: number;
+  membership_closed?: number;
   /** Sample of newly added symbols (capped server-side). */
   added_symbols?: string[];
+  prune_note?: string;
 }
 
 export interface PipelineReadiness {

scripts/run_backtest_snapshot.py

@@ -72,9 +72,29 @@ def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
         default=None,
         help="Add a disjoint train/test portfolio report split at YYYY-MM-DD.",
     )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--terminal-events",
+        default=None,
+        help=(
+            "JSON map of {symbol: YYYY-MM-DD} marking symbols whose final bar is a "
+            "research terminal mark, written by prep_survivorship_snapshot.py. Those "
+            "symbols are replayed through their last real bar instead of stopping 30 "
+            "bars early; every other symbol is unaffected."
+        ),
+    )
     return parser.parse_args()
 
 
+def _load_terminal_events(path: str | None) -> dict[str, date]:
+    """Parse the terminal-event map. Explicit input only — never inferred."""
+    if not path:
+        return {}
+    raw = json.loads(Path(path).read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    if not isinstance(raw, dict):
+        raise SystemExit(f"Terminal events file must be a JSON object: {path}")
+    return {str(sym).upper(): date.fromisoformat(str(value)) for sym, value in raw.items()}
+
+
 def _default_output_path(cadence: str) -> Path:
     stamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d-%H%M%S")
     return Path("reports") / f"backtest-{cadence}-{stamp}.json"
@@ -190,6 +210,10 @@ async def _main() -> None:
             raise SystemExit("--holdout-split must use YYYY-MM-DD") from exc
         os.environ["BACKTEST_HOLDOUT_SPLIT"] = args.holdout_split
 
+    terminal_events = _load_terminal_events(args.terminal_events)
+    if terminal_events:
+        print(f"terminal events: {len(terminal_events)} symbols ({', '.join(sorted(terminal_events))})")
+
     from app.config import settings
     from app.services.backtest_service import run_backtest
 
@@ -222,6 +246,7 @@ async def _main() -> None:
                 progress_cb=progress,
                 target_model=args.target_model,
                 cadence=args.cadence,
+                terminal_events=terminal_events,
             )
     finally:
         await engine.dispose()

tests/unit/test_backtest_data_quality.py

@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+"""Guards for the backtest completeness ledger.
+
+The failure this exists to prevent is concrete: a snapshot whose schema predates
+a migration makes every ``_fetch_columns`` call raise, both dispatch paths catch
+per-ticker exceptions and continue, and the run writes a report with zero
+candidates that is indistinguishable from an honest run that found no setups.
+The ledger has to turn that into a report that says so.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import date
+
+from app.services.backtest_service import (
+    DATA_QUALITY_FAILURE_SAMPLE,
+    HORIZON,
+    MIN_LOOKBACK,
+    _DataQuality,
+    _has_short_history,
+)
+
+
+def _healthy(expected: int = 3, evaluated: int = 3) -> _DataQuality:
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=expected, evaluated=evaluated)
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0, date(2024, 1, 3): 471.0}, None)
+    return q
+
+
+def test_a_complete_run_is_ok():
+    report = _healthy().as_report()
+    assert report["status"] == "ok"
+    assert report["complete"] is True
+    assert report["reasons"] == []
+    assert report["loaded"] == report["evaluated"] == 3
+    assert report["benchmark"]["momentum_basis"] == "residual"
+    assert report["benchmark"]["first"] == "2024-01-02"
+    assert report["benchmark"]["last"] == "2024-01-03"
+
+
+def test_every_symbol_failing_to_load_reads_as_failed_not_as_no_setups():
+    """The unsynced-snapshot case: 3 expected, 3 fetch errors, 0 evaluated."""
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=3)
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0}, None)
+    for symbol in ("AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA"):
+        q.record_failure(symbol, "fetch", RuntimeError("no such column: tickers.cik"))
+
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["status"] == "failed"
+    assert report["complete"] is False
+    assert report["evaluated"] == 0
+    assert report["loaded"] == 0
+    assert report["failed"] == 3
+    assert report["failures_by_stage"] == {"fetch": 3}
+    assert "no symbol was evaluated successfully" in report["reasons"]
+    assert report["failures"][0]["symbol"] == "AAPL"
+    assert "tickers.cik" in report["failures"][0]["error"]
+
+
+def test_a_few_failures_degrade_but_do_not_fail_the_run():
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=10, evaluated=8, no_data_symbols=["RHM"])
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0}, None)
+    q.record_failure("HBI", "replay", ValueError("bad bar"))
+
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["status"] == "degraded"
+    assert report["complete"] is False
+    assert report["loaded"] == 9  # no_data is not a load failure
+    assert report["reasons"] == [
+        "1 symbol failed during replay",
+        "1 symbol had no stored bars (RHM)",
+    ]
+
+
+def test_bar_less_symbols_are_named_so_the_reason_is_actionable():
+    """A universe row with no bars recurs on every run until someone clears it.
+    An unnamed count would just nag; the symbol makes it a one-line fix."""
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=9, evaluated=2, no_data_symbols=list("ABCDEFG"))
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0}, None)
+    q.evaluated = 2
+
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["no_data"] == 7
+    assert report["no_data_symbols"] == ["A", "B", "C", "D", "E"]
+    assert report["reasons"] == ["7 symbols had no stored bars (A, B, C, D, E, …)"]
+
+
+def test_a_missing_benchmark_fails_the_run_because_the_signal_changed():
+    """Without SPY the gate ranks on raw 12-1 momentum, so the headline no
+    longer describes the production strategy even though every ticker loaded."""
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=3, evaluated=3)
+    q.record_benchmark({}, ConnectionError("alpaca unreachable"))
+
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["status"] == "failed"
+    assert report["benchmark"]["momentum_basis"] == "raw_fallback"
+    assert report["benchmark"]["sessions"] == 0
+    assert "alpaca unreachable" in report["benchmark"]["error"]
+    assert any("fell back to raw momentum" in r for r in report["reasons"])
+
+
+def test_an_unbalanced_ledger_is_itself_a_failure():
+    """If a counter stops being maintained the block must not quietly report a
+    clean run — the arithmetic is the self-check."""
+    q = _healthy(expected=10, evaluated=3)  # 7 symbols unaccounted for
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["status"] == "failed"
+    assert any("ledger does not balance" in r for r in report["reasons"])
+
+
+def test_an_empty_universe_is_a_failure():
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=0)
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0}, None)
+    assert q.as_report()["status"] == "failed"
+
+
+def test_the_failure_list_is_capped_but_the_count_is_not():
+    q = _DataQuality(expected=100)
+    q.record_benchmark({date(2024, 1, 2): 470.0}, None)
+    for i in range(60):
+        q.record_failure(f"SYM{i}", "fetch", RuntimeError("boom"))
+    q.evaluated = 40
+
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["failed"] == 60
+    assert len(report["failures"]) == DATA_QUALITY_FAILURE_SAMPLE
+    assert report["failures_truncated"] is True
+
+
+def test_short_history_counts_a_recent_listing_without_failing_the_run():
+    q = _healthy()
+    q.short_history = 1
+    report = q.as_report()
+    assert report["short_history"] == 1
+    assert report["status"] == "ok", "a recent listing is not a data-quality failure"
+
+
+def test_has_short_history_uses_the_replay_minimum():
+    enough = ([0] * (MIN_LOOKBACK + HORIZON),) + ((),) * 5
+    one_short = ([0] * (MIN_LOOKBACK + HORIZON - 1),) + ((),) * 5
+    assert _has_short_history(enough) == 0
+    assert _has_short_history(one_short) == 1

tests/unit/test_backtest_service.py

@@ -1689,6 +1689,74 @@ async def test_run_backtest_rolls_back_a_failed_ticker_fetch(session, monkeypatc
     assert report["tickers"] == 2
     assert report["candidates"] >= 1
 
+    # ...and the report says one ticker was lost rather than presenting the
+    # remaining one as the whole universe.
+    quality = report["data_quality"]
+    assert quality["expected"] == 2
+    assert quality["evaluated"] == 1
+    assert quality["failed"] == 1
+    assert quality["failures"][0]["symbol"] == "AAA"
+    assert quality["failures"][0]["stage"] == "fetch"
+    assert "simulated OHLCV read failure" in quality["failures"][0]["error"]
+    assert quality["complete"] is False
+    assert quality["status"] == "degraded"
+
+
+async def test_run_backtest_reports_its_own_completeness(session):
+    """The healthy case: every ticker accounted for, so the report says so."""
+    await _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, "OSC")
+    report = await bt.run_backtest(session)
+
+    quality = report["data_quality"]
+    assert quality["expected"] == report["tickers"] == 1
+    assert quality["evaluated"] == 1
+    assert quality["failed"] == 0
+    assert quality["no_data"] == 0
+    # Ledger identity — the three terminal buckets must cover the universe.
+    assert quality["no_data"] + quality["failed"] + quality["evaluated"] == quality["expected"]
+
+
+async def test_run_backtest_marks_a_run_failed_when_every_ticker_fails(session, monkeypatch):
+    """The demonstrated failure: an unsynced snapshot raises on every read, the
+    replay loop swallows each one, and the run writes a report with no
+    candidates. It must come back "failed", not look like a quiet run.
+    """
+    await _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, "AAA")
+    await _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, "OSC")
+
+    async def always_failing_fetch(db, symbol):
+        raise RuntimeError("no such column: tickers.cik")
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bt, "_fetch_columns", always_failing_fetch)
+
+    report = await bt.run_backtest(session)
+
+    assert report["candidates"] == 0
+    quality = report["data_quality"]
+    assert quality["status"] == "failed"
+    assert quality["evaluated"] == 0
+    assert quality["loaded"] == 0
+    assert quality["failed"] == 2
+    assert "no symbol was evaluated successfully" in quality["reasons"]
+
+
+async def test_run_backtest_flags_a_missing_benchmark(session, monkeypatch):
+    """Residual momentum degrades to raw without SPY. The numbers then describe
+    a different gate than the one the report claims, so the run is not clean."""
+    await _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, "OSC")
+
+    async def no_benchmark(db, **kwargs):
+        return {}
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bt, "_load_benchmark_closes_for_backtest", no_benchmark)
+
+    report = await bt.run_backtest(session)
+    benchmark = report["data_quality"]["benchmark"]
+
+    assert benchmark["sessions"] == 0
+    assert benchmark["momentum_basis"] == "raw_fallback"
+    assert report["data_quality"]["status"] == "failed"
+
 
 async def test_run_backtest_rolls_back_a_failed_portfolio_sim_load(session, monkeypatch):
     """The portfolio-sim block loads the benchmark and the live exit policy from

tests/unit/test_backtest_terminal_events.py

@@ -0,0 +1,167 @@
+"""Replay bounds for a symbol carrying a research terminal mark.
+
+``_replay_ticker`` normally stops ``HORIZON`` bars before the end so every setup
+has a full resolution window. For a delisted name that is exactly wrong: the
+collapse happens in those final bars, so the signals that would have been caught
+by it are the ones the bound hides. ``terminal_date`` opts a single symbol into
+walking through its last real bar.
+
+The fixtures build a controlled setup rather than replaying a real ticker, so
+the tests do not depend on whether SIVB happened to qualify on a given day.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import date, timedelta
+from types import SimpleNamespace
+
+import pytest
+
+from app.services import backtest_service as bt
+
+
+def _bar(day: date, close: float, *, high: float | None = None, low: float | None = None):
+    return SimpleNamespace(
+        date=day,
+        open=close,
+        high=close * 1.01 if high is None else high,
+        low=close * 0.99 if low is None else low,
+        close=close,
+        volume=1_000_000,
+    )
+
+
+def _series(n: int, *, start: date = date(2021, 1, 4)) -> list:
+    """A steadily rising series long enough to clear MIN_LOOKBACK."""
+    bars = []
+    day = start
+    for i in range(n):
+        while day.weekday() >= 5:
+            day += timedelta(days=1)
+        bars.append(_bar(day, 100.0 + i * 0.25))
+        day += timedelta(days=1)
+    return bars
+
+
+def _terminal_bar(previous: date) -> SimpleNamespace:
+    day = previous + timedelta(days=1)
+    while day.weekday() >= 5:
+        day += timedelta(days=1)
+    return SimpleNamespace(
+        date=day, open=0.01, high=0.01, low=0.01, close=0.01, volume=0
+    )
+
+
+@pytest.fixture()
+def replay(monkeypatch):
+    """Force one long setup on every evaluated bar so signal dates are countable."""
+
+    def _fake_setups(window, config, activation, *, target_model):
+        close = float(window[-1].close)
+        return [{
+            "direction": "long",
+            "entry": close,
+            "stop": close * 0.95,
+            # Reachable within HORIZON on the rising fixture, but not within the
+            # four bars left before a terminal event.
+            "target": close * 1.02,
+            "rr": 2.0,
+            "confidence": 80,
+            "momentum": 0.1,
+            "best_prob": 0.5,
+            "primary_prob": 0.5,
+            "meets_core": True,
+            "action": "BUY",
+            "risk_level": "medium",
+            "target_model": target_model,
+            "primary_sources": [],
+            "primary_strength": 1.0,
+            "primary_rejection_count": 0,
+            "primary_last_rejection_age": None,
+            "primary_distance_atr": 1.0,
+            "raw_level_count": 1,
+            "gate_level_count": 1,
+        }]
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bt, "_window_setups", _fake_setups)
+
+    def _run(records, terminal_date=None):
+        return bt._replay_ticker(
+            "TEST", records, {}, {}, None,
+            bt.PRODUCTION_GTL_TARGET_MODEL, "daily", terminal_date,
+        )
+
+    return _run
+
+
+def test_setup_near_a_terminal_event_is_emitted_and_resolves_at_the_mark(replay):
+    """A setup five sessions before the halt is replayed, and if it is still open
+    at the terminal bar the near-zero price resolves it as a loss."""
+    real = _series(bt.MIN_LOOKBACK + 40)
+    records = real + [_terminal_bar(real[-1].date)]
+
+    without = replay(records)
+    with_mark = replay(records, terminal_date=records[-1].date)
+
+    last_real = real[-1].date
+    fifth_last = real[-5].date
+
+    without_dates = {c["date"] for c in without}
+    with_dates = {c["date"] for c in with_mark}
+
+    assert fifth_last.isoformat() not in without_dates, (
+        "baseline should hide signals inside the final HORIZON bars"
+    )
+    assert fifth_last.isoformat() in with_dates
+    assert last_real.isoformat() in with_dates
+
+    late = next(c for c in with_mark if c["date"] == fifth_last.isoformat())
+    assert late["outcome"] == bt.OUTCOME_STOP_HIT
+    assert late["realized_r"] < -1.0, "a gap to 0.01 must fill below the stop, not at it"
+
+
+def test_no_setup_is_generated_on_the_terminal_bar(replay):
+    real = _series(bt.MIN_LOOKBACK + 40)
+    terminal = _terminal_bar(real[-1].date)
+    records = real + [terminal]
+
+    candidates = replay(records, terminal_date=terminal.date)
+
+    assert terminal.date.isoformat() not in {c["date"] for c in candidates}
+    assert max(c["date"] for c in candidates) == real[-1].date.isoformat()
+
+
+def test_a_position_that_exits_before_the_event_keeps_its_own_exit(replay):
+    """An early setup resolves on its own bars; the terminal mark must not
+    retroactively turn it into a total loss."""
+    real = _series(bt.MIN_LOOKBACK + 40)
+    records = real + [_terminal_bar(real[-1].date)]
+
+    with_mark = replay(records, terminal_date=records[-1].date)
+    early_date = real[bt.MIN_LOOKBACK - 1].date.isoformat()
+
+    early = next(c for c in with_mark if c["date"] == early_date)
+    assert early["outcome"] == bt.OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT
+    assert early["realized_r"] == pytest.approx(2.0)
+
+
+def test_unmapped_symbols_and_runs_without_the_option_are_unchanged(replay):
+    """The ordinary replay bounds are untouched when no terminal date is given."""
+    records = _series(bt.MIN_LOOKBACK + 40)
+
+    baseline = replay(records)
+    again = replay(records, terminal_date=None)
+
+    assert [c["date"] for c in baseline] == [c["date"] for c in again]
+    assert max(c["date"] for c in baseline) < records[-1].date.isoformat(), (
+        "without a terminal mark the walk must still stop HORIZON bars early"
+    )
+
+
+def test_a_mismatched_terminal_date_is_rejected(replay):
+    """The date is validated against the final bar rather than trusted, so a
+    stale events file fails loudly instead of shifting the replay window."""
+    records = _series(bt.MIN_LOOKBACK + 40)
+
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="does not match the final bar"):
+        replay(records, terminal_date=date(1999, 1, 1))

tests/unit/test_run_backtest_snapshot_terminal_events.py

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+"""Runner-level guard: a stale terminal-event map must abort the whole run.
+
+``_replay_ticker`` rejects a mismatched date, but both dispatch paths in
+``run_backtest`` swallow per-ticker exceptions so one unreadable symbol cannot
+kill a long replay. That safety net would turn a wrong events file into a
+quietly incomplete report, so the map is validated before any replay starts —
+and the runner must therefore write no report at all.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pytest
+from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession, async_sessionmaker, create_async_engine
+
+from app.database import Base
+from app.models.ohlcv import OHLCVRecord
+from app.models.ticker import Ticker
+from app.services.backtest_service import TerminalEventError, run_backtest
+
+
+async def _make_snapshot(path: Path, *, symbol: str = "DEAD", bars: int = 40) -> date:
+    """A minimal snapshot with one ticker. Returns its final bar date."""
+    engine = create_async_engine(f"sqlite+aiosqlite:///{path.as_posix()}")
+    async with engine.begin() as conn:
+        await conn.run_sync(Base.metadata.create_all)
+
+    Session = async_sessionmaker(engine, class_=AsyncSession, expire_on_commit=False)
+    day = date(2022, 1, 3)
+    last = day
+    async with Session() as db:
+        ticker = Ticker(symbol=symbol, name=symbol, created_at=datetime.utcnow())
+        db.add(ticker)
+        await db.flush()
+        for i in range(bars):
+            while day.weekday() >= 5:
+                day += timedelta(days=1)
+            price = 100.0 + i
+            db.add(OHLCVRecord(
+                ticker_id=ticker.id, date=day, open=price, high=price * 1.01,
+                low=price * 0.99, close=price, volume=1_000_000,
+                created_at=datetime.utcnow(),
+            ))
+            last = day
+            day += timedelta(days=1)
+        await db.commit()
+    await engine.dispose()
+    return last
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_a_mismatched_terminal_date_aborts_the_run(tmp_path):
+    snapshot = tmp_path / "snap.sqlite"
+    final_bar = await _make_snapshot(snapshot)
+
+    engine = create_async_engine(f"sqlite+aiosqlite:///{snapshot.as_posix()}")
+    Session = async_sessionmaker(engine, class_=AsyncSession, expire_on_commit=False)
+    try:
+        async with Session() as db:
+            with pytest.raises(TerminalEventError, match="final bar"):
+                await run_backtest(db, terminal_events={"DEAD": final_bar + timedelta(days=5)})
+    finally:
+        await engine.dispose()
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_an_unknown_symbol_aborts_the_run(tmp_path):
+    snapshot = tmp_path / "snap.sqlite"
+    await _make_snapshot(snapshot)
+
+    engine = create_async_engine(f"sqlite+aiosqlite:///{snapshot.as_posix()}")
+    Session = async_sessionmaker(engine, class_=AsyncSession, expire_on_commit=False)
+    try:
+        async with Session() as db:
+            with pytest.raises(TerminalEventError, match="not in this snapshot"):
+                await run_backtest(db, terminal_events={"NOPE": date(2022, 2, 1)})
+    finally:
+        await engine.dispose()
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_the_runner_writes_no_report_when_validation_fails(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    """The report is written only after run_backtest returns, so an abort must
+    leave the output path untouched rather than a partial or empty report."""
+    snapshot = tmp_path / "snap.sqlite"
+    final_bar = await _make_snapshot(snapshot)
+
+    events = tmp_path / "events.json"
+    events.write_text(json.dumps({"DEAD": (final_bar + timedelta(days=5)).isoformat()}))
+    out = tmp_path / "report.json"
+
+    import scripts.run_backtest_snapshot as runner
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        runner.sys, "argv",
+        ["run_backtest_snapshot.py", str(snapshot), "--out", str(out),
+         "--terminal-events", str(events), "--quiet", "--workers", "1"],
+    )
+
+    with pytest.raises(TerminalEventError):
+        await runner._main()
+
+    assert not out.exists(), "a failed run must not leave a report behind"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_a_matching_map_is_accepted(tmp_path):
+    """The guard must not reject a correct map — the run proceeds normally."""
+    snapshot = tmp_path / "snap.sqlite"
+    final_bar = await _make_snapshot(snapshot)
+
+    engine = create_async_engine(f"sqlite+aiosqlite:///{snapshot.as_posix()}")
+    Session = async_sessionmaker(engine, class_=AsyncSession, expire_on_commit=False)
+    try:
+        async with Session() as db:
+            report = await run_backtest(db, terminal_events={"DEAD": final_bar})
+    finally:
+        await engine.dispose()
+
+    assert isinstance(report, dict)