rank Top Setups by expected value, badge the top pick

The dashboard Top Setups list showed raw fields in arbitrary order with no
indication of why a ticker was listed or which was best. Now sort by expected
value (R) — probability-weighted payoff per unit risk — so the strongest
opportunity is row 1, badged "Top pick", with a new Exp. Value column that
folds R:R and target probability into one "is this worth taking" number.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts

@@ -13,6 +13,21 @@ export function primaryTargetProbability(setup: TradeSetup): number | null {
   return setup.targets?.length ? bestTargetProbability(setup) : null;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Expected value per unit of risk, in R. Probability-weighted payoff:
+ *   EV = p·(R:R) − (1 − p)
+ * where p is the primary target's hit probability. This is the single "is this
+ * worth taking" number — it rewards both a good payoff ratio and a likely
+ * target, so a fat-but-improbable target can't outrank a solid, probable one.
+ * Returns null when no target probability is known.
+ */
+export function expectedValueR(setup: TradeSetup): number | null {
+  const prob = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+  if (prob == null) return null;
+  const p = prob / 100;
+  return p * setup.rr_ratio - (1 - p);
+}
+
 /** R:R recomputed from the current price (0 if no reward/risk left). */
 export function liveRiskReward(setup: TradeSetup, currentPrice: number): number {
   const reward = setup.direction === 'long' ? setup.target - currentPrice : currentPrice - setup.target;