From d892c46fbb16179c068e57cd5f9e73b9b6a1cc53 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Dennis Thiessen <dennis@thiessen.io>
Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 14:09:33 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] rank Top Setups by expected value, badge the top pick
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The dashboard Top Setups list showed raw fields in arbitrary order with no
indication of why a ticker was listed or which was best. Now sort by expected
value (R) — probability-weighted payoff per unit risk — so the strongest
opportunity is row 1, badged "Top pick", with a new Exp. Value column that
folds R:R and target probability into one "is this worth taking" number.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts    | 15 +++++
 frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx | 87 ++++++++++++++++++----------
 2 files changed, 73 insertions(+), 29 deletions(-)

diff --git a/frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts b/frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts
index 5944a3e..4f0c1df 100644
--- a/frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts
+++ b/frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts
@@ -13,6 +13,21 @@ export function primaryTargetProbability(setup: TradeSetup): number | null {
   return setup.targets?.length ? bestTargetProbability(setup) : null;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Expected value per unit of risk, in R. Probability-weighted payoff:
+ *   EV = p·(R:R) − (1 − p)
+ * where p is the primary target's hit probability. This is the single "is this
+ * worth taking" number — it rewards both a good payoff ratio and a likely
+ * target, so a fat-but-improbable target can't outrank a solid, probable one.
+ * Returns null when no target probability is known.
+ */
+export function expectedValueR(setup: TradeSetup): number | null {
+  const prob = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+  if (prob == null) return null;
+  const p = prob / 100;
+  return p * setup.rr_ratio - (1 - p);
+}
+
 /** R:R recomputed from the current price (0 if no reward/risk left). */
 export function liveRiskReward(setup: TradeSetup, currentPrice: number): number {
   const reward = setup.direction === 'long' ? setup.target - currentPrice : currentPrice - setup.target;
diff --git a/frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx b/frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx
index a4578fc..458edf4 100644
--- a/frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { Section } from '../components/ui/Section';
 import { SkeletonCard, SkeletonTable } from '../components/ui/Skeleton';
 import { formatPrice } from '../lib/format';
 import { recommendationActionLabel } from '../lib/recommendation';
-import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary, primaryTargetProbability } from '../lib/qualification';
+import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary, primaryTargetProbability, expectedValueR } from '../lib/qualification';
 import type { TradeSetup } from '../lib/types';
 
 function fmtR(value: number | null): string {
@@ -64,12 +64,15 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
     [trades.data, activation.data],
   );
 
-  // Show qualified setups first; fall back to the full list when none qualify
+  // Show qualified setups first; fall back to the full list when none qualify.
+  // Rank by expected value (R) so the best opportunity sits at the top.
   const showingQualified = qualifiedSetups.length > 0;
-  const topSetups: TradeSetup[] = useMemo(
-    () => (showingQualified ? qualifiedSetups : trades.data ?? []).slice(0, 5),
-    [showingQualified, qualifiedSetups, trades.data],
-  );
+  const topSetups: TradeSetup[] = useMemo(() => {
+    const pool = showingQualified ? qualifiedSetups : trades.data ?? [];
+    return [...pool]
+      .sort((a, b) => (expectedValueR(b) ?? -Infinity) - (expectedValueR(a) ?? -Infinity))
+      .slice(0, 5);
+  }, [showingQualified, qualifiedSetups, trades.data]);
 
   const topWatchlist = useMemo(
     () =>
@@ -130,7 +133,10 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
       <div className="grid gap-8 xl:grid-cols-5">
         {/* Top setups */}
         <div className="xl:col-span-3">
-          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
+          <Section
+            title="Top Setups"
+            hint={showingQualified ? 'ranked by expected value' : 'none qualified — showing all'}
+          >
             {trades.isLoading && <SkeletonTable rows={5} cols={5} />}
             {trades.isError && <Callout variant="error">Failed to load setups</Callout>}
             {trades.data && topSetups.length === 0 && (
@@ -146,34 +152,57 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Entry</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">R:R</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Target&nbsp;Prob</th>
+                      <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Exp.&nbsp;Value</th>
                       <th className="hidden px-4 py-3 md:table-cell">Action</th>
                     </tr>
                   </thead>
                   <tbody>
-                    {topSetups.map((setup) => (
-                      <tr key={setup.id} className="border-b border-white/[0.04] transition-colors duration-150 hover:bg-white/[0.03]">
-                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
-                          <Link to={`/ticker/${setup.symbol}`} className="font-medium text-blue-300 hover:text-blue-200 transition-colors">
-                            {setup.symbol}
-                          </Link>
-                        </td>
-                        <td className="px-4 py-3"><DirectionTag direction={setup.direction} /></td>
-                        <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{formatPrice(setup.entry_price)}</td>
-                        <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{setup.rr_ratio.toFixed(1)}:1</td>
-                        <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">
-                          {(() => {
-                            const p = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
-                            return p != null ? `${Math.round(p)}%` : '—';
-                          })()}
-                        </td>
-                        <td className="hidden px-4 py-3 text-xs text-gray-400 md:table-cell">
-                          {recommendationActionLabel(setup.recommended_action)}
-                        </td>
-                      </tr>
-                    ))}
+                    {topSetups.map((setup, i) => {
+                      const ev = expectedValueR(setup);
+                      const isTopPick = i === 0;
+                      return (
+                        <tr
+                          key={setup.id}
+                          className={`border-b border-white/[0.04] transition-colors duration-150 hover:bg-white/[0.03] ${
+                            isTopPick ? 'bg-blue-500/[0.06]' : ''
+                          }`}
+                        >
+                          <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                            <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                              <Link to={`/ticker/${setup.symbol}`} className="font-medium text-blue-300 hover:text-blue-200 transition-colors">
+                                {setup.symbol}
+                              </Link>
+                              {isTopPick && (
+                                <span className="rounded bg-blue-500/20 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-[9px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-blue-300">
+                                  Top pick
+                                </span>
+                              )}
+                            </div>
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-3"><DirectionTag direction={setup.direction} /></td>
+                          <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{formatPrice(setup.entry_price)}</td>
+                          <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{setup.rr_ratio.toFixed(1)}:1</td>
+                          <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">
+                            {(() => {
+                              const p = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+                              return p != null ? `${Math.round(p)}%` : '—';
+                            })()}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className={`num px-4 py-3 text-right font-semibold ${rColor(ev)}`}>
+                            {fmtR(ev)}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="hidden px-4 py-3 text-xs text-gray-400 md:table-cell">
+                            {recommendationActionLabel(setup.recommended_action)}
+                          </td>
+                        </tr>
+                      );
+                    })}
                   </tbody>
                 </table>
-                <div className="border-t border-white/[0.04] px-4 py-2.5">
+                <div className="flex items-center justify-between border-t border-white/[0.04] px-4 py-2.5">
+                  <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+                    Exp. Value = probability-weighted payoff per unit of risk
+                  </span>
                   <Link to="/signals" className="text-xs font-medium text-blue-300 hover:text-blue-200 transition-colors">
                     All setups →
                   </Link>