feat: exclude NEUTRAL setups from the activation gate (default on)

A NEUTRAL ("No Clear Setup") recommendation means the engine found no clear
directional trade, yet such setups could still qualify and even be crowned the
top pick purely on momentum rank (e.g. an extended momentum leader with a far,
5%-probability target). A NEUTRAL signal isn't actionable, so it shouldn't
qualify.

New `exclude_neutral` activation flag (default on): setup_qualifies drops setups
whose recommended_action is NEUTRAL. It lives in the shared gate, so it flows
through the dashboard's qualified/top-pick selection, the track record's
qualified stats, and the backtest (which computes recommended_action and gates on
meets_core). Toggleable in Admin → Settings → Activation; the frontend mirror and
activationSummary ("directional") match.

Re-run the backtest after enabling to confirm it holds/improves expectancy.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/admin_service.py

@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ _ACTIVATION_FLOAT_KEYS: dict[str, str] = {
 _ACTIVATION_BOOL_KEYS: dict[str, str] = {
     "require_high_conviction": "activation_require_high_conviction",
     "exclude_conflicts": "activation_exclude_conflicts",
+    "exclude_neutral": "activation_exclude_neutral",
 }
 ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS: dict[str, float | bool] = {
     "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
@@ -58,6 +59,9 @@ ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS: dict[str, float | bool] = {
     "min_confidence": 55.0,
     "require_high_conviction": False,
     "exclude_conflicts": False,
+    # On by default: a NEUTRAL ("no clear setup") recommendation isn't an
+    # actionable signal, so it shouldn't qualify or be crowned a top pick.
+    "exclude_neutral": True,
 }
 
 

app/services/qualification.py

@@ -78,6 +78,13 @@ def setup_qualifies(setup: Any, config: dict) -> bool:
         momentum_percentile = getattr(setup, "momentum_percentile", None)
         if momentum_percentile is not None and momentum_percentile < min_pct:
             return False
+    # A NEUTRAL recommendation means the engine found no clear directional setup —
+    # not an actionable signal, so by default it doesn't qualify (and can't be a
+    # top pick). ``exclude_neutral`` defaults on; turn it off to also count
+    # no-clear-direction momentum leaders.
+    if config.get("exclude_neutral"):
+        if (setup.recommended_action or "NEUTRAL") == "NEUTRAL":
+            return False
     if config.get("require_high_conviction"):
         if (setup.recommended_action or "") not in HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS:
             return False