fix: populate early-warning/combined on the latest snapshot + recent history

The early-warning score showed n/a because it required an exact date match
between the live benchmark (Alpaca, may have today's bar) and the stored
universe breadth (DB, often a day behind), which blanked the newest snapshot —
the one the UI displays.

- Look up the divergence as-of the snapshot date (newest value within a 7-day
  lag) instead of requiring an exact match.
- Backfill early_warning + combined onto recent existing snapshots (the index
  history predates this signal) so the 7/30-day trends populate on the first run
  rather than only filling in over the coming weeks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/regime_monitor_service.py

@@ -545,6 +545,9 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(db: AsyncSession, backfill_days: int = 90) -> di
     except Exception as exc:
         logger.warning("Regime monitor: breadth/divergence skipped: %s", exc)
         divergence = {}
+    # As-of lookup: the stored universe (breadth) can lag the live benchmark date
+    # by a day or two, so an exact-date match would blank the newest snapshot.
+    div_items = sorted(divergence.items())
     cw = config.get("combined_weights") or {"coincident": 0.6, "early_warning": 0.4}
 
     dates = {latest_date}
@@ -555,9 +558,26 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(db: AsyncSession, backfill_days: int = 90) -> di
     latest_result: dict | None = None
     for d in sorted(dates):
         result = _compute_index(prices, vix_series, oas_series, overrides, config, d)
-        _attach_early_warning(result, divergence.get(d), cw)
+        _attach_early_warning(result, _divergence_asof(div_items, d), cw)
         await _upsert_snapshot(db, result)
         latest_result = result
+
+    # Backfill early-warning + combined onto recent existing snapshots (e.g. the
+    # index history written before this signal existed) so their 7/30-day trends
+    # populate immediately rather than only filling in over the coming weeks.
+    if div_items:
+        recent = await db.execute(
+            select(RegimeSnapshot).where(RegimeSnapshot.date >= end - timedelta(days=120))
+        )
+        for row in recent.scalars().all():
+            try:
+                res = json.loads(row.breakdown_json)
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                continue
+            if (res.get("early_warning") or {}).get("score") is not None:
+                continue
+            _attach_early_warning(res, _divergence_asof(div_items, row.date), cw)
+            row.breakdown_json = json.dumps(res)
     await db.commit()
 
     logger.info(json.dumps({
@@ -569,6 +589,20 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(db: AsyncSession, backfill_days: int = 90) -> di
     return latest_result or {"available": False, "reason": "no data"}
 
 
+def _divergence_asof(div_items: list[tuple[date, float]], as_of: date, max_lag_days: int = 7) -> float | None:
+    """Latest divergence value on/before ``as_of``, tolerating a small data lag
+    between the live benchmark and the stored universe. None if too stale/absent."""
+    chosen: tuple[date, float] | None = None
+    for d, v in div_items:
+        if d <= as_of:
+            chosen = (d, v)
+        else:
+            break
+    if chosen is None or (as_of - chosen[0]).days > max_lag_days:
+        return None
+    return chosen[1]
+
+
 def _attach_early_warning(result: dict, ew: float | None, weights: dict) -> None:
     """Attach the separate early-warning score and a combined blend to a snapshot.
 

tests/unit/test_regime_monitor.py

@@ -53,6 +53,15 @@ def test_attach_early_warning_none_falls_back_to_index():
     assert result["combined"]["score"] == 80.0  # no early warning -> just the index
 
 
+def test_divergence_asof_tolerates_small_lag():
+    from app.services.regime_monitor_service import _divergence_asof
+    items = [(date(2026, 6, 1), 55.0), (date(2026, 6, 3), 60.0)]
+    assert _divergence_asof(items, date(2026, 6, 3)) == 60.0   # exact date
+    assert _divergence_asof(items, date(2026, 6, 4)) == 60.0   # 1-day lag -> newest
+    assert _divergence_asof(items, date(2026, 6, 20)) is None  # too stale
+    assert _divergence_asof([], date(2026, 6, 3)) is None
+
+
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Price sub-scores
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------