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signal-platform/app/providers/fundamentals_chain.py
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dennisthiessen d3eb8a2b97
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Fix scoring/recommendation correctness and calibration
Triggered by CNC showing "LONG (High Confidence)" with SHORT reasoning
and no long setup.

- A: recommendation action + reasoning are ticker-level and identical
  on both setups; reasoning always matches the shown action
- B: recommended_action only picks a direction with a tradeable setup;
  strong bias with no setup (e.g. price at ATH) → NEUTRAL with an
  explanatory reason instead of a fake LONG_HIGH
- C: confidence is a directional-agreement model — opposing signals push
  it below 50 (SHORT on a 92-technical/99-momentum stock ~0%, not 55%)
- D: fundamental score requires >=2 real metrics (market-cap-only no
  longer yields a high score)
- E: RSI score peaks at healthy momentum (~60) and penalizes
  overbought/oversold extremes instead of treating RSI 90 as maximal
- F: fundamentals chain merges fields across providers (FMP market cap
  + Finnhub P/E) instead of stopping at the first with any field
- NEUTRAL label: "No Clear Setup" (covers untradeable-bias case)

Scores recompute on next scan/scoring run; C and E shift score
distributions intentionally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 15:34:36 +02:00

285 lines
12 KiB
Python

"""Chained fundamentals provider with fallback adapters.
Order:
1) FMP (if configured)
2) Finnhub (if configured)
3) Alpha Vantage (if configured)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import logging
import os
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
import httpx
from app.config import settings
from app.exceptions import ProviderError, RateLimitError
from app.providers.fmp import FMPFundamentalProvider
from app.providers.protocol import FundamentalData, FundamentalProvider
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
_CA_BUNDLE = os.environ.get("SSL_CERT_FILE", "")
if not _CA_BUNDLE or not Path(_CA_BUNDLE).exists():
_CA_BUNDLE_PATH: str | bool = True
else:
_CA_BUNDLE_PATH = _CA_BUNDLE
def _safe_float(value: object) -> float | None:
if value is None:
return None
try:
return float(value)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
return None
def _to_api_symbol(symbol: str) -> str:
"""Convert internal symbol format (BRK-B) to API format (BRK.B).
Finnhub and Alpha Vantage use dot-separated share class notation.
"""
return symbol.replace("-", ".")
class FinnhubFundamentalProvider:
"""Fundamentals provider backed by Finnhub free endpoints."""
def __init__(self, api_key: str) -> None:
if not api_key:
raise ProviderError("Finnhub API key is required")
self._api_key = api_key
self._base_url = "https://finnhub.io/api/v1"
async def fetch_fundamentals(self, ticker: str) -> FundamentalData:
unavailable: dict[str, str] = {}
api_symbol = _to_api_symbol(ticker)
async with httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=30.0, verify=_CA_BUNDLE_PATH) as client:
profile_resp = await client.get(
f"{self._base_url}/stock/profile2",
params={"symbol": api_symbol, "token": self._api_key},
)
metric_resp = await client.get(
f"{self._base_url}/stock/metric",
params={"symbol": api_symbol, "metric": "all", "token": self._api_key},
)
earnings_resp = await client.get(
f"{self._base_url}/stock/earnings",
params={"symbol": api_symbol, "limit": 1, "token": self._api_key},
)
for resp, endpoint in (
(profile_resp, "profile2"),
(metric_resp, "stock/metric"),
(earnings_resp, "stock/earnings"),
):
if resp.status_code == 429:
raise RateLimitError(f"Finnhub rate limit hit for {ticker} ({endpoint})")
if resp.status_code in (401, 403):
raise ProviderError(f"Finnhub access denied for {ticker} ({endpoint}): HTTP {resp.status_code}")
if resp.status_code != 200:
raise ProviderError(f"Finnhub error for {ticker} ({endpoint}): HTTP {resp.status_code}")
profile_payload = profile_resp.json() if profile_resp.text else {}
metric_payload = metric_resp.json() if metric_resp.text else {}
earnings_payload = earnings_resp.json() if earnings_resp.text else []
metrics = metric_payload.get("metric", {}) if isinstance(metric_payload, dict) else {}
market_cap = _safe_float((profile_payload or {}).get("marketCapitalization"))
pe_ratio = _safe_float(metrics.get("peTTM") or metrics.get("peNormalizedAnnual"))
revenue_growth = _safe_float(metrics.get("revenueGrowthTTMYoy") or metrics.get("revenueGrowth5Y"))
earnings_surprise = None
if isinstance(earnings_payload, list) and earnings_payload:
first = earnings_payload[0] if isinstance(earnings_payload[0], dict) else {}
earnings_surprise = _safe_float(first.get("surprisePercent"))
if pe_ratio is None:
unavailable["pe_ratio"] = "not available from provider payload"
if revenue_growth is None:
unavailable["revenue_growth"] = "not available from provider payload"
if earnings_surprise is None:
unavailable["earnings_surprise"] = "not available from provider payload"
if market_cap is None:
unavailable["market_cap"] = "not available from provider payload"
return FundamentalData(
ticker=ticker,
pe_ratio=pe_ratio,
revenue_growth=revenue_growth,
earnings_surprise=earnings_surprise,
market_cap=market_cap,
fetched_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
unavailable_fields=unavailable,
)
class AlphaVantageFundamentalProvider:
"""Fundamentals provider backed by Alpha Vantage free endpoints."""
def __init__(self, api_key: str) -> None:
if not api_key:
raise ProviderError("Alpha Vantage API key is required")
self._api_key = api_key
self._base_url = "https://www.alphavantage.co/query"
async def fetch_fundamentals(self, ticker: str) -> FundamentalData:
unavailable: dict[str, str] = {}
api_symbol = _to_api_symbol(ticker)
async with httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=30.0, verify=_CA_BUNDLE_PATH) as client:
overview_resp = await client.get(
self._base_url,
params={"function": "OVERVIEW", "symbol": api_symbol, "apikey": self._api_key},
)
earnings_resp = await client.get(
self._base_url,
params={"function": "EARNINGS", "symbol": api_symbol, "apikey": self._api_key},
)
income_resp = await client.get(
self._base_url,
params={"function": "INCOME_STATEMENT", "symbol": api_symbol, "apikey": self._api_key},
)
for resp, endpoint in (
(overview_resp, "OVERVIEW"),
(earnings_resp, "EARNINGS"),
(income_resp, "INCOME_STATEMENT"),
):
if resp.status_code == 429:
raise RateLimitError(f"Alpha Vantage rate limit hit for {ticker} ({endpoint})")
if resp.status_code != 200:
raise ProviderError(f"Alpha Vantage error for {ticker} ({endpoint}): HTTP {resp.status_code}")
overview = overview_resp.json() if overview_resp.text else {}
earnings = earnings_resp.json() if earnings_resp.text else {}
income = income_resp.json() if income_resp.text else {}
if isinstance(overview, dict) and overview.get("Information"):
raise ProviderError(f"Alpha Vantage unavailable for {ticker}: {overview.get('Information')}")
if isinstance(overview, dict) and overview.get("Note"):
raise RateLimitError(f"Alpha Vantage rate limit for {ticker}: {overview.get('Note')}")
pe_ratio = _safe_float((overview or {}).get("PERatio"))
market_cap = _safe_float((overview or {}).get("MarketCapitalization"))
earnings_surprise = None
quarterly = earnings.get("quarterlyEarnings", []) if isinstance(earnings, dict) else []
if isinstance(quarterly, list) and quarterly:
first = quarterly[0] if isinstance(quarterly[0], dict) else {}
earnings_surprise = _safe_float(first.get("surprisePercentage"))
revenue_growth = None
annual = income.get("annualReports", []) if isinstance(income, dict) else []
if isinstance(annual, list) and len(annual) >= 2:
curr = _safe_float((annual[0] or {}).get("totalRevenue"))
prev = _safe_float((annual[1] or {}).get("totalRevenue"))
if curr is not None and prev not in (None, 0):
revenue_growth = ((curr - prev) / abs(prev)) * 100.0
if pe_ratio is None:
unavailable["pe_ratio"] = "not available from provider payload"
if revenue_growth is None:
unavailable["revenue_growth"] = "not available from provider payload"
if earnings_surprise is None:
unavailable["earnings_surprise"] = "not available from provider payload"
if market_cap is None:
unavailable["market_cap"] = "not available from provider payload"
return FundamentalData(
ticker=ticker,
pe_ratio=pe_ratio,
revenue_growth=revenue_growth,
earnings_surprise=earnings_surprise,
market_cap=market_cap,
fetched_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
unavailable_fields=unavailable,
)
_FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS = ("pe_ratio", "revenue_growth", "earnings_surprise", "market_cap")
class ChainedFundamentalProvider:
"""Merge fundamentals across providers, filling gaps from later sources.
A single provider rarely covers everything on free tiers — FMP's free plan,
for example, returns only market cap (the ratios/growth/earnings endpoints
402). Rather than stop at the first provider with *any* field, we take each
field from the first provider that supplies it, so FMP's market cap is
combined with Finnhub's P/E and earnings surprise.
"""
def __init__(self, providers: list[tuple[str, FundamentalProvider]]) -> None:
if not providers:
raise ProviderError("No fundamental providers configured")
self._providers = providers
async def fetch_fundamentals(self, ticker: str) -> FundamentalData:
merged: dict[str, float | None] = {f: None for f in _FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS}
field_source: dict[str, str] = {}
errors: list[str] = []
for provider_name, provider in self._providers:
if all(merged[f] is not None for f in _FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS):
break
try:
data = await provider.fetch_fundamentals(ticker)
except Exception as exc:
errors.append(f"{provider_name}: {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}")
continue
for field in _FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS:
if merged[field] is None:
value = getattr(data, field)
if value is not None:
merged[field] = value
field_source[field] = provider_name
if all(merged[f] is None for f in _FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS):
attempts = "; ".join(errors[:6]) if errors else "no usable metrics from any provider"
raise ProviderError(f"All fundamentals providers failed for {ticker}. Attempts: {attempts}")
unavailable: dict[str, str] = {
field: "not available from any configured provider"
for field in _FUNDAMENTAL_FIELDS
if merged[field] is None
}
# Record which provider supplied each field for transparency.
for field, src in field_source.items():
unavailable[f"source_{field}"] = src
return FundamentalData(
ticker=ticker,
pe_ratio=merged["pe_ratio"],
revenue_growth=merged["revenue_growth"],
earnings_surprise=merged["earnings_surprise"],
market_cap=merged["market_cap"],
fetched_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
unavailable_fields=unavailable,
)
def build_fundamental_provider_chain() -> FundamentalProvider:
providers: list[tuple[str, FundamentalProvider]] = []
if settings.fmp_api_key:
providers.append(("fmp", FMPFundamentalProvider(settings.fmp_api_key)))
if settings.finnhub_api_key:
providers.append(("finnhub", FinnhubFundamentalProvider(settings.finnhub_api_key)))
if settings.alpha_vantage_api_key:
providers.append(("alpha_vantage", AlphaVantageFundamentalProvider(settings.alpha_vantage_api_key)))
if not providers:
raise ProviderError(
"No fundamentals provider configured. Set one of FMP_API_KEY, FINNHUB_API_KEY, ALPHA_VANTAGE_API_KEY"
)
logger.info("Fundamentals provider chain configured: %s", [name for name, _ in providers])
return ChainedFundamentalProvider(providers)