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signal-platform/docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md
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2026-07-18 21:26:13 +02:00

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Broad-universe fip_id IC research (Phase B)

Generated: 2026-07-18T21:14:40.170961

Scope

  • Research only — production universe, gate, scanner, schedule unchanged.
  • Price-only signal harness; no sentiment/fundamentals on the broad tier.
  • Point-in-time liquidity mask: top 1500 by 63d median $vol, price ≥ $5.0 at as-of.

Caveats

  • Survivorship bias: today's constituents backfilled historically (worse in small caps).
  • IEX volume undercount: relative $vol rank only, not absolute floors.
  • Pool skew: nasdaq_all sp500 tilts tech/biotech; missing pure NYSE mid-caps.

Fingerprint (505-name prod snapshot)

  • Expected: IC ≈ -0.045, t ≈ -2.9
  • Observed: IC = -0.045, t = -2.91, weeks = 35, reliable = True
  • Pass: True

Liquid-breadth signal_eval (fip_id)

metric value
mean_ic 0.0575
ic_t_stat 5.12
ic_positive_pct 88.6
weeks 35
avg_cross_section 1471.2
reliable True
mean_quintile_spread 0.0199

Verdict (iron rule)

  • Green: False
  • iron rule not met on liquid-breadth cross-section
  • Checks: {"mean_ic": 0.0575, "abs_mean_ic_ge_0_03": true, "sign_negative": false, "ic_t_stat": 5.12, "reliable": true, "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 1471.2}

A green verdict authorizes a follow-up proposal only (two-tier universe / gate revalidation) — not production wire-in.

Artifacts

  • Fingerprint report: reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-fingerprint.json
  • Breadth report: reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json