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signal-platform/frontend/src/components/admin/ActivationSettings.tsx
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dennisthiessen c34f3cb1a4
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redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable
Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 14:46:38 +02:00

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import { useEffect, useState } from 'react';
import type { ActivationConfig } from '../../lib/types';
import { useActivationSettings, useUpdateActivationSettings } from '../../hooks/useAdmin';
import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
const DEFAULTS: ActivationConfig = {
min_expected_value: 0.15,
min_rr: 1.2,
min_confidence: 55,
min_target_probability: 0,
require_high_conviction: false,
exclude_conflicts: false,
};
export function ActivationSettings() {
const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = useActivationSettings();
const update = useUpdateActivationSettings();
const [form, setForm] = useState<ActivationConfig>(DEFAULTS);
useEffect(() => {
if (data) setForm(data);
}, [data]);
const onSave = () => {
update.mutate(form);
};
const onReset = () => {
setForm(DEFAULTS);
update.mutate(DEFAULTS);
};
if (isLoading) return <SkeletonTable rows={2} cols={2} />;
if (isError) return <p className="text-sm text-red-400">{(error as Error)?.message || 'Failed to load activation thresholds'}</p>;
return (
<div className="glass p-5 space-y-4">
<div>
<h3 className="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-200">Activation Gate</h3>
<p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">
What counts as a signal worth acting on. Drives the Dashboard's "Qualified" metric, the
Signals "Qualified only" view, and the Track Record's qualified stats. The core test is
<span className="text-gray-300"> expected value</span> probability-weighted asymmetry
so R:R and target probability no longer fight each other. All setups are still evaluated
regardless; tune the EV floor against the Track Record's EV sweep to see what actually wins.
</p>
</div>
<div className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-3">
<label className="block space-y-1">
<span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Expected Value (R)</span>
<input
type="number"
min={-1}
max={10}
step={0.05}
value={form.min_expected_value}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_expected_value: Number(e.target.value) }))}
className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
/>
<span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">p·R:R (1p), in R. 0.15 ≈ +0.15× risk/trade. The core gate.</span>
</label>
<label className="block space-y-1">
<span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Risk:Reward (1 : x)</span>
<input
type="number"
min={0}
step={0.1}
value={form.min_rr}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_rr: Number(e.target.value) }))}
className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
/>
<span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Floor only — keeps symmetric/negative trades out.</span>
</label>
<label className="block space-y-1">
<span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Confidence (%)</span>
<input
type="number"
min={0}
max={100}
step={1}
value={form.min_confidence}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_confidence: Number(e.target.value) }))}
className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
/>
</label>
</div>
<div className="border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4">
<p className="text-xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-gray-500">Optional tighteners</p>
<p className="mt-1 text-[11px] text-gray-600">Off by default — turn on to be more selective on top of the EV gate.</p>
<div className="mt-3 grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-3">
<label className="block space-y-1">
<span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Target Probability (%)</span>
<input
type="number"
min={0}
max={100}
step={1}
value={form.min_target_probability}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_target_probability: Number(e.target.value) }))}
className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
/>
<span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Best target's probability must clear this. 0 disables.</span>
</label>
<label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
<input
type="checkbox"
checked={form.require_high_conviction}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, require_high_conviction: e.target.checked }))}
className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
/>
<span>
Require high conviction
<span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
Only LONG (High) / SHORT (High) the signals must clearly pick a side.
</span>
</span>
</label>
<label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
<input
type="checkbox"
checked={form.exclude_conflicts}
onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, exclude_conflicts: e.target.checked }))}
className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
/>
<span>
Exclude conflicted setups
<span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
Risk level must be Low drops setups with contradicting signals.
</span>
</span>
</label>
</div>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<button className="btn-primary px-4 py-2 text-sm" onClick={onSave} disabled={update.isPending}>
{update.isPending ? 'Saving…' : 'Save Thresholds'}
</button>
<button className="px-4 py-2 text-sm rounded border border-white/[0.1] text-gray-300 hover:text-white" onClick={onReset} disabled={update.isPending}>
Reset to Defaults
</button>
</div>
</div>
);
}