{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T07:09:12.424801+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 119258,
  "qualified": 136,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary",
    "range_factor_lookback": 504,
    "range_factor_min_log": 1.0,
    "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183,
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 136,
    "wins": 59,
    "losses": 70,
    "expired": 7,
    "hit_rate": 45.7,
    "avg_r": 0.453,
    "total_r": 61.62,
    "net_avg_r": 0.416,
    "net_total_r": 56.56,
    "best_r": 3.09,
    "worst_r": -3.12,
    "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0374,
    "median_net_r": -1.019,
    "profit_factor": 1.7,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.284
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 119258,
    "wins": 48142,
    "losses": 67268,
    "expired": 3848,
    "hit_rate": 41.7,
    "avg_r": -0.039,
    "total_r": -4689.79,
    "net_avg_r": -0.094,
    "net_total_r": -11194.64,
    "best_r": 7.7,
    "worst_r": -8.6,
    "avg_hold_days": 8.3,
    "net_r_per_day": -0.0114,
    "median_net_r": -1.036,
    "profit_factor": 0.85,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.22
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 59,
      "losses": 70,
      "expired": 7,
      "hit_rate": 45.7,
      "avg_r": 0.453,
      "total_r": 61.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.416,
      "net_total_r": 56.56,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
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      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.7,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.284
    },
    "short": {
      "total": 0,
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "expired": 0,
      "hit_rate": null,
      "avg_r": null,
      "total_r": null,
      "net_avg_r": null,
      "net_total_r": null,
      "best_r": null,
      "worst_r": null,
      "avg_hold_days": null,
      "net_r_per_day": null,
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      "profit_factor": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
      "total": 105,
      "wins": 42,
      "losses": 58,
      "expired": 5,
      "hit_rate": 42.0,
      "avg_r": 0.308,
      "total_r": 32.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.272,
      "net_total_r": 28.54,
      "best_r": 2.89,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0245,
      "median_net_r": -1.022,
      "profit_factor": 1.42,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.121
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 59,
      "losses": 70,
      "expired": 7,
      "hit_rate": 45.7,
      "avg_r": 0.453,
      "total_r": 61.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.416,
      "net_total_r": 56.56,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0374,
      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.7,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.284
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 163,
      "wins": 64,
      "losses": 88,
      "expired": 11,
      "hit_rate": 42.1,
      "avg_r": 0.333,
      "total_r": 54.35,
      "net_avg_r": 0.296,
      "net_total_r": 48.27,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0269,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.48,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.149
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 192,
      "wins": 74,
      "losses": 103,
      "expired": 15,
      "hit_rate": 41.8,
      "avg_r": 0.319,
      "total_r": 61.3,
      "net_avg_r": 0.282,
      "net_total_r": 54.11,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0255,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.46,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.143
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 217,
      "wins": 80,
      "losses": 120,
      "expired": 17,
      "hit_rate": 40.0,
      "avg_r": 0.25,
      "total_r": 54.27,
      "net_avg_r": 0.213,
      "net_total_r": 46.25,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.97,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0191,
      "median_net_r": -1.022,
      "profit_factor": 1.33,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.075
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 673,
      "wins": 213,
      "losses": 404,
      "expired": 56,
      "hit_rate": 34.5,
      "avg_r": 0.115,
      "total_r": 77.49,
      "net_avg_r": 0.079,
      "net_total_r": 53.32,
      "best_r": 6.46,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0071,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.083
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 59,
      "losses": 70,
      "expired": 7,
      "hit_rate": 45.7,
      "avg_r": 0.453,
      "total_r": 61.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.416,
      "net_total_r": 56.56,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0374,
      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.7,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.284,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 1.034,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.997,
      "hold_total_r": 140.66
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 638,
      "wins": 223,
      "losses": 365,
      "expired": 50,
      "hit_rate": 37.9,
      "avg_r": 0.21,
      "total_r": 133.72,
      "net_avg_r": 0.163,
      "net_total_r": 104.15,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0137,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.26,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.02,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.515,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.469,
      "hold_total_r": 328.69
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3923,
      "wins": 1804,
      "losses": 2021,
      "expired": 98,
      "hit_rate": 47.2,
      "avg_r": 0.11,
      "total_r": 429.6,
      "net_avg_r": 0.057,
      "net_total_r": 222.37,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0071,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.1,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.063,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.365,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.312,
      "hold_total_r": 1431.74
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 1517,
      "wins": 518,
      "losses": 851,
      "expired": 148,
      "hit_rate": 37.8,
      "avg_r": 0.195,
      "total_r": 296.23,
      "net_avg_r": 0.149,
      "net_total_r": 225.56,
      "best_r": 4.07,
      "worst_r": -4.08,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0117,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.24,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.009,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.533,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.486,
      "hold_total_r": 808.41
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7792,
      "wins": 3431,
      "losses": 4067,
      "expired": 294,
      "hit_rate": 45.8,
      "avg_r": 0.113,
      "total_r": 883.99,
      "net_avg_r": 0.062,
      "net_total_r": 484.91,
      "best_r": 4.07,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.007,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.058,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.417,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.366,
      "hold_total_r": 3247.74
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 77,
      "win_rate": 56.6,
      "avg_r": 0.154,
      "total_r": 20.89,
      "net_avg_r": 0.116,
      "net_total_r": 15.83,
      "best_r": 3.65,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0261,
      "median_net_r": 0.078,
      "profit_factor": 1.32,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.024
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 76,
      "win_rate": 55.9,
      "avg_r": 0.519,
      "total_r": 70.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.482,
      "net_total_r": 65.56,
      "best_r": 5.76,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0618,
      "median_net_r": 0.131,
      "profit_factor": 2.02,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.257
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 66,
      "win_rate": 48.5,
      "avg_r": 0.909,
      "total_r": 123.56,
      "net_avg_r": 0.871,
      "net_total_r": 118.5,
      "best_r": 9.01,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0615,
      "median_net_r": -0.395,
      "profit_factor": 2.55,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.565
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 136,
      "wins": 55,
      "win_rate": 40.4,
      "avg_r": 1.034,
      "total_r": 140.66,
      "net_avg_r": 0.997,
      "net_total_r": 135.6,
      "best_r": 9.85,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0537,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 2.53,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.59
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13610.36,
        "total_return_pct": 36.1,
        "cagr_pct": 16.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 11.6,
        "sharpe": 1.25,
        "trades": 92,
        "win_rate": 44.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 39.24,
        "best_trade_r": 4.49,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 454.37,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -294.77,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 49,
          "target": 37,
          "time": 6
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -1.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 27.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16869.88,
        "total_return_pct": 68.7,
        "cagr_pct": 29.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16869.88,
        "total_return_pct": 68.7,
        "cagr_pct": 29.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15311.71,
        "total_return_pct": 53.1,
        "cagr_pct": 23.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 10.6,
        "sharpe": 1.37,
        "trades": 70,
        "win_rate": 35.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 75.88,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1027.06,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -328.0,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 27
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 32.9,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 43.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 9.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11693.22,
        "total_return_pct": 16.9,
        "cagr_pct": 8.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 12.0,
        "sharpe": 0.61,
        "trades": 59,
        "win_rate": 28.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 28.7,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 828.49,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -274.38,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 40,
          "time": 19
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 32.9,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 16.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 3.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16869.88,
        "total_return_pct": 68.7,
        "cagr_pct": 29.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9923.65,
        "total_return_pct": -0.8,
        "cagr_pct": null,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 0.7,
        "sharpe": -2.9,
        "trades": 1,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "best_trade_r": -1.0,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.0,
        "best_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "avg_hold_days": 1.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 1
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 6.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-05-24",
        "end_date": "2024-07-10"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15847.68,
        "total_return_pct": 58.5,
        "cagr_pct": 25.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.44,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 76.94,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 968.56,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -342.83,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 51.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16869.88,
        "total_return_pct": 68.7,
        "cagr_pct": 29.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16996.95,
        "total_return_pct": 70.0,
        "cagr_pct": 29.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.58,
        "trades": 75,
        "win_rate": 40.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.29,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1097.8,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16869.76,
        "total_return_pct": 68.7,
        "cagr_pct": 29.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 76,
        "win_rate": 39.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1081.08,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 44,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16898.4,
        "total_return_pct": 69.0,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 74,
        "win_rate": 39.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 31
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 54.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16898.09,
        "total_return_pct": 69.0,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 74,
        "win_rate": 39.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1099.39,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.18,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 31
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 54.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16402.12,
        "total_return_pct": 64.0,
        "cagr_pct": 27.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.47,
        "trades": 73,
        "win_rate": 38.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 87.7,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1067.09,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.18,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 30
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 50.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14995.53,
        "total_return_pct": 50.0,
        "cagr_pct": 18.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 27.2,
        "sharpe": 0.74,
        "trades": 200,
        "win_rate": 32.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 24.98,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1124.18,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -174.51,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 131,
          "time": 69
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 1,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -25.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 101.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14760.77,
        "total_return_pct": 47.6,
        "cagr_pct": 17.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.5,
        "sharpe": 0.72,
        "trades": 197,
        "win_rate": 32.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 24.17,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1142.78,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -162.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 129,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 1,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -24.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 102.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -3.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16077.47,
        "total_return_pct": 60.8,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2,
        "sharpe": 0.84,
        "trades": 181,
        "win_rate": 33.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 33.58,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1251.72,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -193.93,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 116,
          "time": 65
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -23.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 119.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -4.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16898.4,
        "total_return_pct": 69.0,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 74,
        "win_rate": 39.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 31
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 54.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19020.34,
        "total_return_pct": 90.2,
        "cagr_pct": 37.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 9.6,
        "sharpe": 1.97,
        "trades": 84,
        "win_rate": 39.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 107.39,
        "best_trade_r": 9.85,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1274.78,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -207.46,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 32,
          "stop": 25,
          "time": 27
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 73.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16980.39,
        "total_return_pct": 69.8,
        "cagr_pct": 29.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.0,
        "sharpe": 1.57,
        "trades": 75,
        "win_rate": 38.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.07,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1115.04,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -350.48,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 5,
          "stop": 41,
          "time": 29
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 53.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16898.4,
        "total_return_pct": 69.0,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 1.55,
        "trades": 74,
        "win_rate": 39.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 43,
          "time": 31
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 54.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17407.93,
        "total_return_pct": 74.1,
        "cagr_pct": 31.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.7,
        "sharpe": 1.69,
        "trades": 79,
        "win_rate": 43.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.77,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 1159.06,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -356.82,
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          "stop": 33,
          "time": 19,
          "trailing_stop": 27
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
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        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
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        "live_exit_mode": null,
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            "date": "2024-05-31",
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            "date": "2024-06-03",
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            "date": "2024-06-20",
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            "return_pct": 23.26
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            "date": "2024-06-24",
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            "return_pct": 22.3
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            "return_pct": 22.92
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            "equity": 12311.45,
            "return_pct": 23.11
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            "return_pct": 22.63
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            "equity": 12288.24,
            "return_pct": 22.88
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            "date": "2024-07-02",
            "equity": 12370.94,
            "return_pct": 23.71
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            "date": "2024-07-03",
            "equity": 12426.15,
            "return_pct": 24.26
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            "date": "2024-07-05",
            "equity": 12497.8,
            "return_pct": 24.98
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            "date": "2024-07-08",
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            "return_pct": 25.12
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            "date": "2024-07-23",
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            "date": "2024-07-25",
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            "return_pct": 21.32
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            "date": "2024-07-26",
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            "date": "2024-07-29",
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            "date": "2024-07-31",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
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        },
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
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            "date": "2021-11-01",
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-03",
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            "date": "2021-11-04",
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            "date": "2021-11-05",
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            "date": "2021-11-30",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-03",
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            "date": "2021-12-06",
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-07",
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-08",
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-09",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-10",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-12-13",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-12-14",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-12-15",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-12-16",
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-17",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-20",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-21",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-22",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-23",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-27",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-28",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-30",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-31",
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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      "net_r": -1.054905,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "URI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.578947,
      "strategy_rank": 82.558724,
      "rr": 1.75906,
      "primary_prob": 32.83,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 11,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.638591,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.155861,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.176758,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.718354,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.277512,
      "strategy_rank": 81.1976,
      "rr": 1.889593,
      "primary_prob": 30.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.834389,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.645231,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.906427,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.497408,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.521531,
      "strategy_rank": 98.698485,
      "rr": 1.613307,
      "primary_prob": 23.0,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 39.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.419961,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 2.644847,
      "range_504_ratio": 14.081289,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.282297,
      "strategy_rank": 97.85083,
      "rr": 0.777976,
      "primary_prob": 49.15,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 62.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.166963,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 1.64195,
      "range_504_ratio": 5.165231,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.754121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.703349,
      "strategy_rank": 72.947237,
      "rr": 1.230708,
      "primary_prob": 43.0,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.846063,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 0.780632,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.182852,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.215311,
      "strategy_rank": 91.602985,
      "rr": 0.953331,
      "primary_prob": 47.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 86.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.429997,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 1.00906,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.743021,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.910731,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.440191,
      "strategy_rank": 71.232,
      "rr": 1.645747,
      "primary_prob": 34.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.46862,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.573501,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.774468,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.580977,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.038278,
      "strategy_rank": 70.791472,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 35.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.474386,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.607027,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.368421,
      "strategy_rank": 96.367919,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 50.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 84.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.184049,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.267579,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +31.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.69, max drawdown -13.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+1.00R net/trade vs +0.42R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +29.4% vs +16.4% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.53R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.69R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.51R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.42R over 136 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +29.2 points (+68.7% vs +39.5%), max drawdown \u221213.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.59R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.55, CAGR +29.4% vs +29.4%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.61 vs 1.55, drawdown 12.0% vs 13.2%, CAGR +8.2% vs +29.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.44 vs 1.55, drawdown 13.2% vs 13.2%, CAGR +25.4% vs +29.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.58 vs 1.55, drawdown 13.2% vs 13.2%, CAGR +29.8% vs +29.4%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}