{ "generated_at": "2026-09-07T08:56:54.560608+00:00", "tickers": 591, "rank_only_tickers": 0, "candidates": 229642, "qualified": 1315, "params": { "step_days": 5, "step_sessions": 5, "entry_cadence": "weekly", "signal_eval_cadence": "weekly", "horizon_days": 30, "min_lookback": 60, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "target_model": "production_gtl", "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)", "is_production_target_model": true, "production_reentry_policy": "gate_reset", "liquid_breadth_top_n": null, "liquid_min_price": null, "signal_eval_only": false }, "activation": { "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "min_rr": 2.0, "min_confidence": 0.0, "require_high_conviction": false, "exclude_conflicts": false, "exclude_neutral": true }, "overall_qualified": { "total": 1315, "wins": 438, "losses": 738, "expired": 139, "hit_rate": 37.2, "avg_r": 0.19, "total_r": 250.44, "net_avg_r": 0.145, "net_total_r": 190.61, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0123, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.23, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.013 }, "overall_all": { "total": 229642, "wins": 92942, "losses": 128928, "expired": 7772, "hit_rate": 41.9, "avg_r": -0.044, "total_r": -10154.9, "net_avg_r": -0.097, "net_total_r": -22292.01, "best_r": 9.24, "worst_r": -16.42, "avg_hold_days": 8.2, "net_r_per_day": -0.0118, "median_net_r": -1.034, "profit_factor": 0.85, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.223 }, "by_direction": { "long": { "total": 1315, "wins": 438, "losses": 738, "expired": 139, "hit_rate": 37.2, "avg_r": 0.19, "total_r": 250.44, "net_avg_r": 0.145, "net_total_r": 190.61, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0123, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.23, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.013 }, "short": { "total": 0, "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "expired": 0, "hit_rate": null, "avg_r": null, "total_r": null, "net_avg_r": null, "net_total_r": null, "best_r": null, "worst_r": null, "avg_hold_days": null, "net_r_per_day": null, "median_net_r": null, "profit_factor": null, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null } }, "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "sweep": [ { "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0, "total": 598, "wins": 200, "losses": 332, "expired": 66, "hit_rate": 37.6, "avg_r": 0.202, "total_r": 120.64, "net_avg_r": 0.161, "net_total_r": 96.44, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.43, "avg_hold_days": 11.7, "net_r_per_day": 0.0138, "median_net_r": -1.026, "profit_factor": 1.26, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.001 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "total": 1315, "wins": 438, "losses": 738, "expired": 139, "hit_rate": 37.2, "avg_r": 0.19, "total_r": 250.44, "net_avg_r": 0.145, "net_total_r": 190.61, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0123, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.23, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.013 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, "total": 2241, "wins": 702, "losses": 1316, "expired": 223, "hit_rate": 34.8, "avg_r": 0.112, "total_r": 251.74, "net_avg_r": 0.064, "net_total_r": 143.94, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0054, "median_net_r": -1.037, "profit_factor": 1.1, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.094 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, "total": 3407, "wins": 1028, "losses": 2019, "expired": 360, "hit_rate": 33.7, "avg_r": 0.083, "total_r": 282.69, "net_avg_r": 0.033, "net_total_r": 113.71, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0028, "median_net_r": -1.04, "profit_factor": 1.05, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.12 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, "total": 4781, "wins": 1396, "losses": 2866, "expired": 519, "hit_rate": 32.8, "avg_r": 0.052, "total_r": 248.68, "net_avg_r": 0.002, "net_total_r": 8.23, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -5.2, "avg_hold_days": 12.1, "net_r_per_day": 0.0001, "median_net_r": -1.042, "profit_factor": 1.0, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.152 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, "total": 17292, "wins": 4220, "losses": 11152, "expired": 1920, "hit_rate": 27.5, "avg_r": -0.101, "total_r": -1742.84, "net_avg_r": -0.149, "net_total_r": -2581.98, "best_r": 9.24, "worst_r": -15.94, "avg_hold_days": 12.1, "net_r_per_day": -0.0124, "median_net_r": -1.042, "profit_factor": 0.79, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.311 } ], "gate_ablation": [ { "variant": "all_floors", "total": 1315, "wins": 438, "losses": 738, "expired": 139, "hit_rate": 37.2, "avg_r": 0.19, "total_r": 250.44, "net_avg_r": 0.145, "net_total_r": 190.61, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0123, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.23, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.013, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.549, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.504, "hold_total_r": 722.45 }, { "variant": "no_confidence_floor", "total": 1323, "wins": 439, "losses": 744, "expired": 140, "hit_rate": 37.1, "avg_r": 0.186, "total_r": 246.23, "net_avg_r": 0.141, "net_total_r": 185.99, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0119, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.22, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.019, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.545, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.499, "hold_total_r": 720.56 }, { "variant": "no_rr_floor", "total": 7807, "wins": 3601, "losses": 3961, "expired": 245, "hit_rate": 47.6, "avg_r": 0.091, "total_r": 710.39, "net_avg_r": 0.039, "net_total_r": 303.98, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -5.16, "avg_hold_days": 7.9, "net_r_per_day": 0.0049, "median_net_r": -1.019, "profit_factor": 1.07, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.084, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.324, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.272, "hold_total_r": 2531.12 }, { "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", "total": 2762, "wins": 896, "losses": 1550, "expired": 316, "hit_rate": 36.6, "avg_r": 0.168, "total_r": 464.13, "net_avg_r": 0.123, "net_total_r": 338.86, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 12.6, "net_r_per_day": 0.0097, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.2, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.028, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.523, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.478, "hold_total_r": 1445.76 }, { "variant": "momentum_only", "total": 16688, "wins": 7633, "losses": 8442, "expired": 613, "hit_rate": 47.5, "avg_r": 0.102, "total_r": 1695.53, "net_avg_r": 0.051, "net_total_r": 858.66, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -5.71, "avg_hold_days": 8.5, "net_r_per_day": 0.006, "median_net_r": -1.017, "profit_factor": 1.09, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.069, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.369, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.319, "hold_total_r": 6165.64 } ], "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", "time_exit_sweep": [ { "hold_days": 5, "total": 1315, "wins": 718, "win_rate": 54.6, "avg_r": 0.15, "total_r": 197.2, "net_avg_r": 0.104, "net_total_r": 137.37, "best_r": 5.09, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 4.5, "net_r_per_day": 0.0233, "median_net_r": 0.088, "profit_factor": 1.28, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.026 }, { "hold_days": 10, "total": 1315, "wins": 661, "win_rate": 50.3, "avg_r": 0.304, "total_r": 399.73, "net_avg_r": 0.258, "net_total_r": 339.9, "best_r": 6.73, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 7.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0332, "median_net_r": -0.027, "profit_factor": 1.53, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.062 }, { "hold_days": 21, "total": 1315, "wins": 565, "win_rate": 43.0, "avg_r": 0.459, "total_r": 603.53, "net_avg_r": 0.413, "net_total_r": 543.7, "best_r": 9.86, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 13.5, "net_r_per_day": 0.0307, "median_net_r": -1.028, "profit_factor": 1.67, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.118 }, { "hold_days": 30, "total": 1315, "wins": 502, "win_rate": 38.2, "avg_r": 0.549, "total_r": 722.45, "net_avg_r": 0.504, "net_total_r": 662.62, "best_r": 12.87, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 17.4, "net_r_per_day": 0.0289, "median_net_r": -1.034, "profit_factor": 1.75, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.13 } ], "portfolio_sim": { "params": { "starting_capital": 10000.0, "max_positions": 15, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "hold_days": 30 }, "policies": [ { "policy": "target", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 22651.96, "total_return_pct": 126.5, "cagr_pct": 22.6, "max_drawdown_pct": 24.0, "calmar": 0.94, "sortino": 1.8, "gain_to_pain": 1.14, "profit_factor": 1.35, "sharpe": 1.18, "sharpe_se": 0.5, "psr": 0.9911, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.1245, "return_kurtosis": 4.3767, "trades": 452, "win_rate": 40.5, "avg_trade_pnl": 27.99, "best_trade_r": 8.85, "worst_trade_r": -4.21, "best_trade_pnl": 967.69, "worst_trade_pnl": -676.01, "avg_hold_days": 10.5, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 264, "target": 157, "time": 31 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 10.1 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 2.2 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 50.0 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 29.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 3.5 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "policy": "hold", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 41319.17, "total_return_pct": 313.2, "cagr_pct": 42.5, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.3, "calmar": 2.32, "sortino": 2.77, "gain_to_pain": 2.24, "profit_factor": 1.95, "sharpe": 1.73, "sharpe_se": 0.495, "psr": 0.9998, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.3134, "return_kurtosis": 4.3807, "trades": 334, "win_rate": 35.6, "avg_trade_pnl": 93.77, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 4148.61, "worst_trade_pnl": -460.32, "avg_hold_days": 16.3, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 208, "time": 126 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 13.9 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 28.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 57.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 34.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 33.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 15 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." }, "strategy_variants": { "variants": [ { "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", "ranking": "residual", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 41319.17, "total_return_pct": 313.2, "cagr_pct": 42.5, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.3, "calmar": 2.32, "sortino": 2.77, "gain_to_pain": 2.24, "profit_factor": 1.95, "sharpe": 1.73, "sharpe_se": 0.495, "psr": 0.9998, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.3134, "return_kurtosis": 4.3807, "trades": 334, "win_rate": 35.6, "avg_trade_pnl": 93.77, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 4148.61, "worst_trade_pnl": -460.32, "avg_hold_days": 16.3, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 208, "time": 126 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 13.9 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 28.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 57.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 34.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 33.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", "ranking": "raw", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 25937.87, "total_return_pct": 159.4, "cagr_pct": 26.8, "max_drawdown_pct": 22.4, "calmar": 1.2, "sortino": 1.87, "gain_to_pain": 1.39, "profit_factor": 1.63, "sharpe": 1.2, "sharpe_se": 0.495, "psr": 0.9922, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.3742, "return_kurtosis": 4.6307, "trades": 325, "win_rate": 32.6, "avg_trade_pnl": 49.04, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.43, "best_trade_pnl": 2460.79, "worst_trade_pnl": -425.91, "avg_hold_days": 16.1, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 210, "time": 115 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 11.1 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 3.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 44.0 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 15.3 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.4 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", "ranking": "raw", "cutoff": 90.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 90.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 28501.89, "total_return_pct": 185.0, "cagr_pct": 30.0, "max_drawdown_pct": 19.5, "calmar": 1.54, "sortino": 2.17, "gain_to_pain": 1.59, "profit_factor": 1.86, "sharpe": 1.37, "sharpe_se": 0.495, "psr": 0.9972, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.4266, "return_kurtosis": 5.6742, "trades": 260, "win_rate": 35.0, "avg_trade_pnl": 71.16, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.43, "best_trade_pnl": 2884.84, "worst_trade_pnl": -295.65, "avg_hold_days": 16.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 164, "time": 96 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 6.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 18.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 24.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 38.6 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 30.3 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", "ranking": "residual", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 15, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 41319.17, "total_return_pct": 313.2, "cagr_pct": 42.5, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.3, "calmar": 2.32, "sortino": 2.77, "gain_to_pain": 2.24, "profit_factor": 1.95, "sharpe": 1.73, "sharpe_se": 0.495, "psr": 0.9998, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.3134, "return_kurtosis": 4.3807, "trades": 334, "win_rate": 35.6, "avg_trade_pnl": 93.77, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 4148.61, "worst_trade_pnl": -460.32, "avg_hold_days": 16.3, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 208, "time": 126 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 13.9 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 28.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 57.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 34.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 33.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 }, { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 50.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 18727.67, "total_return_pct": 87.3, "cagr_pct": 17.1, "max_drawdown_pct": 8.8, "calmar": 1.95, "sortino": 2.5, "gain_to_pain": 1.77, "profit_factor": 2.07, "sharpe": 1.61, "sharpe_se": 0.502, "psr": 0.9993, "n_returns": 995, "return_skew": 0.2306, "return_kurtosis": 8.4992, "trades": 148, "win_rate": 41.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 58.97, "best_trade_r": 8.98, "worst_trade_r": -1.25, "best_trade_pnl": 1122.56, "worst_trade_pnl": -209.74, "avg_hold_days": 17.5, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 85, "time": 63 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 91.3, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 11.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 23.9 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 6.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 5.5 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 20.4 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-06-24" }, { "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 }, { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 70.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 14083.62, "total_return_pct": 40.8, "cagr_pct": 9.2, "max_drawdown_pct": 8.3, "calmar": 1.11, "sortino": 1.98, "gain_to_pain": 1.29, "profit_factor": 2.21, "sharpe": 1.27, "sharpe_se": 0.505, "psr": 0.994, "n_returns": 975, "return_skew": 0.4418, "return_kurtosis": 13.2573, "trades": 72, "win_rate": 47.2, "avg_trade_pnl": 56.72, "best_trade_r": 8.98, "worst_trade_r": -1.09, "best_trade_pnl": 841.73, "worst_trade_pnl": -134.19, "avg_hold_days": 19.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 37, 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"return_pct": 54.9 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 9.3 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10", "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10", "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 39981.62, "total_return_pct": 299.8, "cagr_pct": 41.3, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.1, "calmar": 1.96, "sortino": 2.61, "gain_to_pain": 1.88, "profit_factor": 1.91, "sharpe": 1.62, "sharpe_se": 0.493, "psr": 0.9995, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.4061, "return_kurtosis": 4.6761, "trades": 337, "win_rate": 35.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 88.97, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.56, "best_trade_pnl": 3865.36, "worst_trade_pnl": -477.88, "avg_hold_days": 16.3, 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"yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": -1.0 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -14.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 97.0 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 30.5 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 47.1 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 5.6 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", "ranking": "high_vol", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 28615.93, "total_return_pct": 186.2, "cagr_pct": 26.3, "max_drawdown_pct": 34.6, "calmar": 0.76, "sortino": 1.45, "gain_to_pain": 0.86, "profit_factor": 1.4, "sharpe": 0.94, "sharpe_se": 0.469, "psr": 0.978, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.3121, "return_kurtosis": 4.3085, "trades": 510, "win_rate": 31.8, "avg_trade_pnl": 36.5, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -6.58, "best_trade_pnl": 3402.42, "worst_trade_pnl": -886.55, "avg_hold_days": 16.2, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 332, "time": 178 }, "skipped_book_full": 673, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": -1.0 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -26.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 97.0 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 35.6 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 48.9 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": -1.5 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", "ranking": "high_vol", "cutoff": 90.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 90.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 27061.84, "total_return_pct": 170.6, "cagr_pct": 24.7, "max_drawdown_pct": 33.1, "calmar": 0.75, "sortino": 1.39, "gain_to_pain": 0.86, "profit_factor": 1.41, "sharpe": 0.91, "sharpe_se": 0.468, "psr": 0.9739, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.3781, "return_kurtosis": 5.2827, "trades": 476, "win_rate": 32.8, "avg_trade_pnl": 35.84, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -6.58, "best_trade_pnl": 3101.77, "worst_trade_pnl": -1551.58, "avg_hold_days": 16.4, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 301, "time": 175 }, "skipped_book_full": 282, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": -1.6 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -29.8 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 102.6 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 34.2 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 39.9 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 3.1 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", "ranking": "low_vol", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 11139.87, "total_return_pct": 11.4, "cagr_pct": 2.4, "max_drawdown_pct": 26.8, "calmar": 0.09, "sortino": 0.37, "gain_to_pain": 0.21, "profit_factor": 1.09, "sharpe": 0.26, "sharpe_se": 0.472, "psr": 0.7078, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.1383, "return_kurtosis": 7.367, "trades": 258, "win_rate": 32.2, "avg_trade_pnl": 4.42, "best_trade_r": 8.98, "worst_trade_r": -2.77, "best_trade_pnl": 624.89, "worst_trade_pnl": -196.64, "avg_hold_days": 16.7, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 169, "time": 89 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": 0.2 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 15.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": -2.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": -3.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": -6.1 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 8.9 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." }, "exit_policy_variants": { "variants": [ { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "hold", "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 39530.98, "total_return_pct": 295.3, "cagr_pct": 40.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.1, "calmar": 1.94, "sortino": 2.63, "gain_to_pain": 1.81, "profit_factor": 1.82, "sharpe": 1.63, "sharpe_se": 0.492, "psr": 0.9995, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.4571, "return_kurtosis": 5.2081, "trades": 336, "win_rate": 37.2, "avg_trade_pnl": 87.89, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.83, "best_trade_pnl": 4054.63, "worst_trade_pnl": -907.75, "avg_hold_days": 16.8, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 203, "time": 133 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 15.0 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 40.1 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 47.4 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 29.8 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 28.2 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "sma50", "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 38546.3, "total_return_pct": 285.5, "cagr_pct": 40.0, "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, "calmar": 1.68, "sortino": 2.65, "gain_to_pain": 2.05, "profit_factor": 1.89, "sharpe": 1.69, "sharpe_se": 0.5, "psr": 0.9996, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.1371, "return_kurtosis": 4.2777, "trades": 414, "win_rate": 32.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 68.95, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -4.21, "best_trade_pnl": 4305.5, "worst_trade_pnl": -1042.17, "avg_hold_days": 12.1, "exit_reasons": { "sma50": 182, "stop": 135, "time": 97 }, "skipped_book_full": 6, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 9.0 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 27.3 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 70.5 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 41.9 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 14.8 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "low20", "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 37273.79, "total_return_pct": 272.7, "cagr_pct": 38.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, "calmar": 1.66, "sortino": 2.52, "gain_to_pain": 1.71, "profit_factor": 1.74, "sharpe": 1.56, "sharpe_se": 0.492, "psr": 0.9993, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.4671, "return_kurtosis": 5.2602, "trades": 337, "win_rate": 35.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 80.93, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.83, "best_trade_pnl": 3954.08, "worst_trade_pnl": -885.24, "avg_hold_days": 16.3, "exit_reasons": { "low20": 21, "stop": 200, "time": 116 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 15.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 32.1 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 60.4 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 25.4 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 21.8 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "technical40", "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 39530.98, "total_return_pct": 295.3, "cagr_pct": 40.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.1, "calmar": 1.94, "sortino": 2.63, "gain_to_pain": 1.81, "profit_factor": 1.82, "sharpe": 1.63, "sharpe_se": 0.492, "psr": 0.9995, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.4571, "return_kurtosis": 5.2081, "trades": 336, "win_rate": 37.2, "avg_trade_pnl": 87.89, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.83, "best_trade_pnl": 4054.63, "worst_trade_pnl": -907.75, "avg_hold_days": 16.8, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 203, "time": 133 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 15.0 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 40.1 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 47.4 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 29.8 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 28.2 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 35012.52, "total_return_pct": 250.1, "cagr_pct": 36.7, "max_drawdown_pct": 23.6, "calmar": 1.56, "sortino": 2.49, "gain_to_pain": 1.66, "profit_factor": 1.76, "sharpe": 1.53, "sharpe_se": 0.491, "psr": 0.9991, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.5192, "return_kurtosis": 5.3553, "trades": 351, "win_rate": 35.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 71.26, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 3826.02, "worst_trade_pnl": -972.88, "avg_hold_days": 14.9, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 170, "time": 79, "trailing_stop": 102 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 14.6 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 33.3 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 41.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 32.6 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 22.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." }, "portfolio_monitor": { "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "strategies": [ { "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "production_live_immediate", "label": "Live setup + 3x ATR trail (immediate re-entry)", "description": "Exact live activation, ordering, and Admin exit policy, with only the post-stop gate reset disabled as the comparison baseline.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": "live_immediate", "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail + gate reset", "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "is_production": true, "comparison_arm": "live_gate_reset", "reentry_policy": "gate_reset" } ], "lookbacks": [ { "lookback": "6m", "label": "6 months" }, { "lookback": "1y", "label": "1 year" }, { "lookback": "3y", "label": "3 years" }, { "lookback": "5y", "label": "5 years" }, { "lookback": "all", "label": "All history" } ], "runs": [ { "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", "ranking_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "exit_policy": "hold", "live_exit_mode": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate", "lookback": "6m", "lookback_label": "6 months", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 13536.46, "total_return_pct": 35.4, "cagr_pct": 83.6, "max_drawdown_pct": 6.4, "calmar": 13.17, "sortino": 5.12, "gain_to_pain": 10.97, "profit_factor": 2.74, "sharpe": 2.87, "sharpe_se": 1.364, "psr": 0.9824, "n_returns": 124, "return_skew": 0.75, "return_kurtosis": 6.2834, "trades": 37, "win_rate": 43.2, "avg_trade_pnl": 95.58, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.1, "best_trade_pnl": 1359.23, "worst_trade_pnl": -147.56, "avg_hold_days": 17.8, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 21, "time": 16 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 9.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.4 } ], "start_date": "2025-12-31", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "equity_curve": [ { "date": "2025-12-31", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-05", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-07", "equity": 9990.34, "return_pct": -0.1 }, { "date": "2026-01-08", "equity": 10080.41, "return_pct": 0.8 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "equity": 10127.43, "return_pct": 1.27 }, { "date": "2026-01-12", "equity": 10331.35, "return_pct": 3.31 }, { "date": "2026-01-13", "equity": 10442.28, "return_pct": 4.42 }, { "date": "2026-01-14", "equity": 10473.24, "return_pct": 4.73 }, { "date": "2026-01-15", "equity": 10541.56, "return_pct": 5.42 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "equity": 10352.94, "return_pct": 3.53 }, { "date": "2026-01-20", "equity": 10400.77, "return_pct": 4.01 }, { "date": "2026-01-21", "equity": 10634.54, "return_pct": 6.35 }, { "date": "2026-01-22", "equity": 10760.66, "return_pct": 7.61 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "equity": 10829.45, "return_pct": 8.29 }, { "date": "2026-01-26", "equity": 10863.78, "return_pct": 8.64 }, { "date": "2026-01-27", "equity": 10726.72, "return_pct": 7.27 }, { "date": "2026-01-28", "equity": 10630.33, "return_pct": 6.3 }, { "date": "2026-01-29", "equity": 10579.87, "return_pct": 5.8 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "equity": 10330.52, "return_pct": 3.31 }, { "date": "2026-02-02", "equity": 10368.23, "return_pct": 3.68 }, { "date": "2026-02-03", "equity": 10529.91, "return_pct": 5.3 }, { "date": "2026-02-04", "equity": 10364.86, "return_pct": 3.65 }, { "date": "2026-02-05", "equity": 10173.92, "return_pct": 1.74 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "equity": 10372.35, "return_pct": 3.72 }, { "date": "2026-02-09", "equity": 10466.0, "return_pct": 4.66 }, { "date": "2026-02-10", "equity": 10620.33, "return_pct": 6.2 }, { "date": "2026-02-11", "equity": 10754.45, "return_pct": 7.54 }, { "date": "2026-02-12", "equity": 10511.77, "return_pct": 5.12 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "equity": 10751.5, "return_pct": 7.51 }, { "date": "2026-02-17", "equity": 10778.32, "return_pct": 7.78 }, { "date": "2026-02-18", "equity": 10800.66, "return_pct": 8.01 }, { "date": "2026-02-19", "equity": 10799.47, "return_pct": 7.99 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "equity": 10808.27, "return_pct": 8.08 }, { "date": "2026-02-23", "equity": 10774.93, "return_pct": 7.75 }, { "date": "2026-02-24", "equity": 10974.76, "return_pct": 9.75 }, { "date": "2026-02-25", "equity": 10854.11, "return_pct": 8.54 }, { "date": "2026-02-26", "equity": 10768.31, "return_pct": 7.68 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "equity": 10673.45, "return_pct": 6.73 }, { "date": "2026-03-02", "equity": 10669.47, "return_pct": 6.69 }, { "date": "2026-03-03", "equity": 10442.88, "return_pct": 4.43 }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "equity": 10415.94, "return_pct": 4.16 }, { "date": "2026-03-05", "equity": 10314.08, "return_pct": 3.14 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "equity": 10288.7, "return_pct": 2.89 }, { "date": "2026-03-09", "equity": 10356.14, "return_pct": 3.56 }, { "date": "2026-03-10", "equity": 10405.07, "return_pct": 4.05 }, { "date": "2026-03-11", "equity": 10419.76, "return_pct": 4.2 }, { "date": "2026-03-12", "equity": 10368.41, "return_pct": 3.68 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "equity": 10397.03, "return_pct": 3.97 }, { "date": "2026-03-16", "equity": 10472.57, "return_pct": 4.73 }, { "date": "2026-03-17", "equity": 10611.41, "return_pct": 6.11 }, { "date": "2026-03-18", "equity": 10580.52, "return_pct": 5.81 }, { "date": "2026-03-19", "equity": 10538.29, "return_pct": 5.38 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "equity": 10510.94, "return_pct": 5.11 }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "equity": 10650.87, "return_pct": 6.51 }, { "date": "2026-03-24", "equity": 10735.39, "return_pct": 7.35 }, { "date": "2026-03-25", "equity": 10747.11, "return_pct": 7.47 }, { "date": "2026-03-26", "equity": 10677.55, "return_pct": 6.78 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "equity": 10545.13, "return_pct": 5.45 }, { "date": "2026-03-30", "equity": 10502.85, "return_pct": 5.03 }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "equity": 10571.42, "return_pct": 5.71 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "equity": 10570.93, "return_pct": 5.71 }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "equity": 10617.98, "return_pct": 6.18 }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "equity": 10592.49, "return_pct": 5.92 }, { "date": "2026-04-07", "equity": 10590.57, "return_pct": 5.91 }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "equity": 11012.54, "return_pct": 10.13 }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "equity": 11162.45, "return_pct": 11.62 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "equity": 11155.55, "return_pct": 11.56 }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "equity": 11229.06, "return_pct": 12.29 }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "equity": 11369.42, "return_pct": 13.69 }, { "date": "2026-04-15", "equity": 11291.64, "return_pct": 12.92 }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "equity": 11400.77, "return_pct": 14.01 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "equity": 11573.53, "return_pct": 15.74 }, { "date": "2026-04-20", "equity": 11533.06, "return_pct": 15.33 }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "equity": 11550.11, "return_pct": 15.5 }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "equity": 11786.17, "return_pct": 17.86 }, { "date": "2026-04-23", "equity": 11790.89, "return_pct": 17.91 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "equity": 12131.38, "return_pct": 21.31 }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "equity": 11984.69, "return_pct": 19.85 }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "equity": 11712.97, "return_pct": 17.13 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "equity": 11756.11, "return_pct": 17.56 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "equity": 12354.76, "return_pct": 23.55 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "equity": 12342.96, "return_pct": 23.43 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "equity": 12155.8, "return_pct": 21.56 }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "equity": 12405.07, "return_pct": 24.05 }, { "date": "2026-05-06", "equity": 13193.53, "return_pct": 31.94 }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "equity": 12963.67, "return_pct": 29.64 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "equity": 13339.79, "return_pct": 33.4 }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "equity": 13320.18, "return_pct": 33.2 }, { "date": "2026-05-12", "equity": 13293.0, "return_pct": 32.93 }, { "date": "2026-05-13", "equity": 13428.15, "return_pct": 34.28 }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "equity": 13469.92, "return_pct": 34.7 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "equity": 13026.24, "return_pct": 30.26 }, { "date": "2026-05-18", "equity": 12876.36, "return_pct": 28.76 }, { "date": "2026-05-19", "equity": 12835.95, "return_pct": 28.36 }, { "date": "2026-05-20", "equity": 12767.17, "return_pct": 27.67 }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "equity": 12907.1, "return_pct": 29.07 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "equity": 13000.4, "return_pct": 30.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "equity": 13197.87, "return_pct": 31.98 }, { "date": "2026-05-27", "equity": 13473.48, "return_pct": 34.73 }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "equity": 13590.35, "return_pct": 35.9 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "equity": 13760.92, "return_pct": 37.61 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "equity": 13693.94, "return_pct": 36.94 }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "equity": 13778.87, "return_pct": 37.79 }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "equity": 13859.48, 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"wait_sessions": 619, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-24", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "UAL", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-21" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "wait_sessions": 419, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2025-09-05" }, { "symbol": "CEG", "wait_sessions": 422, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-11", "reentry_date": "2025-09-18" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 299, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2025-10-03" }, { "symbol": "ETSY", "wait_sessions": 673, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-17" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 10, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "FSLR", "wait_sessions": 597, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-08", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "VLO", "wait_sessions": 768, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-31" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 56, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-20", "reentry_date": "2025-11-07" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 15, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-24", "reentry_date": "2025-11-14" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 7, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-19", "reentry_date": "2025-12-01" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 679, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-24", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "F", "wait_sessions": 812, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-13", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "ALB", "wait_sessions": 713, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-17", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "CVS", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-03", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "LUMN", "wait_sessions": 114, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2026-01-14" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 59, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-03", "reentry_date": "2026-01-29" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 745, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-15", "reentry_date": "2026-02-05" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-02-02", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "DLTR", "wait_sessions": 40, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-22", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "BWA", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-29", "reentry_date": "2026-02-27" }, { "symbol": "AAP", "wait_sessions": 79, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-09", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 157, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-19", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "IPGP", "wait_sessions": 26, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-12", "reentry_date": "2026-04-20" }, { "symbol": "IPGP", "wait_sessions": 5, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-04-27", "reentry_date": "2026-05-04" }, { "symbol": "ILMN", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-27", "reentry_date": "2026-05-11" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 23, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-04-15", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 823, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-03", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" } ] } ], "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. The structural overlay appears only in its explicit research arm and changes ordering, not production qualification. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps. The production row applies the same post-initial-stop gate-reset rule as the live setup list." }, "production_cadence_comparison": { "entry_cadence": "weekly", "lookback": "all", "arms": [ { "strategy": "production_live_immediate", "label": "Live setup + 3x ATR trail (immediate re-entry)", "description": "Exact live activation, ordering, and Admin exit policy, with only the post-stop gate reset disabled as the comparison baseline.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": "live_immediate", "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "ranking_key": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20_score", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "live_exit_mode": "atr_trailing", "reentry_policy": "immediate", "lookback": "all", "lookback_label": "All history", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 35012.52, "total_return_pct": 250.1, "cagr_pct": 36.7, "max_drawdown_pct": 23.6, "calmar": 1.56, "sortino": 2.49, "gain_to_pain": 1.66, "profit_factor": 1.76, "sharpe": 1.53, "sharpe_se": 0.491, "psr": 0.9991, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.5192, "return_kurtosis": 5.3553, "trades": 351, "win_rate": 35.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 71.26, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 3826.02, "worst_trade_pnl": -972.88, "avg_hold_days": 14.9, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 170, "time": 79, "trailing_stop": 102 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 14.6 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 33.3 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 41.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 32.6 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 22.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "arm": "prod_live_setup_weekly", "entry_cadence": "weekly" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail + gate reset", "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "is_production": true, "comparison_arm": "live_gate_reset", "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "ranking_key": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20_score", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "live_exit_mode": "atr_trailing", "reentry_policy": "gate_reset", "lookback": "all", "lookback_label": "All history", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 36439.19, "total_return_pct": 264.4, "cagr_pct": 38.1, "max_drawdown_pct": 23.6, "calmar": 1.62, "sortino": 2.56, "gain_to_pain": 1.69, "profit_factor": 1.81, "sharpe": 1.57, "sharpe_se": 0.491, "psr": 0.9993, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.5008, "return_kurtosis": 5.3621, "trades": 346, "win_rate": 35.0, "avg_trade_pnl": 76.41, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 3839.8, "worst_trade_pnl": -460.0, "avg_hold_days": 14.9, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 167, "time": 79, "trailing_stop": 100 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 14.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 33.3 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 44.6 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 35.5 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 21.9 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "post_stop_events": 167, "post_stop_reentries": 84, "post_stop_states_open_at_end": 83, "reentry_events": [ { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 35, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-07-13", "reentry_date": "2022-08-31" }, { "symbol": "STLD", "wait_sessions": 24, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-01", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-06", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "NOV", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-08-31", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "SLB", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-23", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "CVX", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-19", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "MOS", "wait_sessions": 49, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-16", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "LVS", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "GDDY", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "NUE", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-20", "reentry_date": "2022-12-02" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-19", "reentry_date": "2023-01-03" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 43, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-11-29", "reentry_date": "2023-02-01" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 57, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-07", "reentry_date": "2023-03-02" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-13", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "TT", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-15", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "BA", "wait_sessions": 10, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-14", "reentry_date": "2023-04-28" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 58, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-27", "reentry_date": "2023-06-20" }, { "symbol": "UBER", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-11", "reentry_date": "2023-07-19" }, { "symbol": "PVH", "wait_sessions": 52, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-05-10", "reentry_date": "2023-07-26" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-02" }, { "symbol": "HAL", "wait_sessions": 178, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-11-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-09" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 115, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-09", "reentry_date": "2023-08-23" }, { "symbol": "TTD", "wait_sessions": 20, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-09", "reentry_date": "2023-09-07" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 47, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 17, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-09-19", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "NFLX", "wait_sessions": 44, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-24", "reentry_date": "2023-10-26" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-16", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "AMD", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-17", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-13", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-12-01" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-03-11", "reentry_date": "2024-04-05" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-04-26" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 109, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2024-06-10" }, { "symbol": "TPL", "wait_sessions": 293, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-06-17" }, { "symbol": "GAP", "wait_sessions": 112, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-02-20", "reentry_date": "2024-07-31" }, { "symbol": "GAP", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-02", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 421, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-08", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "DECK", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-02", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "IP", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-05", "reentry_date": "2024-08-21" }, { "symbol": "PODD", "wait_sessions": 411, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-22", "reentry_date": "2024-10-10" }, { "symbol": "EBAY", "wait_sessions": 16, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-27", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "GM", "wait_sessions": 29, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-09", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 43, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-10", "reentry_date": "2025-02-13" }, { "symbol": "VFC", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-02-03", "reentry_date": "2025-02-13" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 420, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-19", "reentry_date": "2025-03-21" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 36, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-02-20", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-03-31", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "IBKR", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-04-16", "reentry_date": "2025-05-19" }, { "symbol": "LUMN", "wait_sessions": 127, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-11-19", "reentry_date": "2025-05-27" }, { "symbol": "FIX", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-02-11", "reentry_date": "2025-06-10" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 255, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-17", "reentry_date": "2025-06-25" }, { "symbol": "UAL", "wait_sessions": 17, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-13", "reentry_date": "2025-07-10" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 34, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-18", "reentry_date": "2025-08-07" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 619, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-24", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "UAL", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-21" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "wait_sessions": 419, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2025-09-05" }, { "symbol": "CEG", "wait_sessions": 422, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-11", "reentry_date": "2025-09-18" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 299, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2025-10-03" }, { "symbol": "ETSY", "wait_sessions": 673, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-17" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 10, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "FSLR", "wait_sessions": 597, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-08", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "VLO", "wait_sessions": 768, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2025-10-31" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 56, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-20", "reentry_date": "2025-11-07" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 15, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-24", "reentry_date": "2025-11-14" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 7, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-19", "reentry_date": "2025-12-01" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 679, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-24", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "F", "wait_sessions": 812, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-13", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "ALB", "wait_sessions": 713, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-17", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "CVS", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-03", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "LUMN", "wait_sessions": 114, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2026-01-14" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 59, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-03", "reentry_date": "2026-01-29" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 745, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-15", "reentry_date": "2026-02-05" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-02-02", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "DLTR", "wait_sessions": 40, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-22", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "BWA", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-29", "reentry_date": "2026-02-27" }, { "symbol": "AAP", "wait_sessions": 79, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-09", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 157, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-19", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "IPGP", "wait_sessions": 26, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-12", "reentry_date": "2026-04-20" }, { "symbol": "IPGP", "wait_sessions": 5, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-04-27", "reentry_date": "2026-05-04" }, { "symbol": "ILMN", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-27", "reentry_date": "2026-05-11" }, { "symbol": "SEDG", "wait_sessions": 23, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-04-15", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 823, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-03", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" } ], "arm": "gate_reset_weekly", "entry_cadence": "weekly" } ], "note": "Both arms use the exact same live gate, ordering, Admin exit policy, fees, and candidate cadence. Only the post-stop gate-reset rule changes." }, "holdout": null, "min_rr_sweep": null, "target_model_diagnostics": { "target_model": "production_gtl", "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)", "candidate_count": 229642, "primary_source_counts": { "pivot_point": 222100, "range_grid": 198587 }, "primary_round_only": 0, "primary_strength_100": 155510, "avg_primary_strength": 79.71, "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.318, "avg_primary_rejection_count": 41.06, "avg_raw_level_count": 55.206, "avg_gate_level_count": 55.206 }, "signal_eval": [ { "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 558.4, "mean_ic": 0.0631, "ic_t_stat": 2.21, "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0221, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_12_1", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 558.4, "mean_ic": 0.0624, "ic_t_stat": 1.93, "ic_positive_pct": 68.6, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0217, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "vol_6m", "weeks": 39, "avg_cross_section": 560.8, "mean_ic": 0.0354, "ic_t_stat": 0.89, "ic_positive_pct": 61.5, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0251, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "trend_200", "weeks": 37, "avg_cross_section": 559.3, "mean_ic": 0.0206, "ic_t_stat": 0.57, "ic_positive_pct": 56.8, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0073, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "reversal_1m", "weeks": 43, "avg_cross_section": 563.0, "mean_ic": 0.0112, "ic_t_stat": 0.43, "ic_positive_pct": 60.5, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0056, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_6_1", "weeks": 39, "avg_cross_section": 560.8, "mean_ic": 0.0101, "ic_t_stat": 0.43, "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0088, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "high_52w", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 558.5, "mean_ic": 0.0079, "ic_t_stat": 0.23, "ic_positive_pct": 57.1, "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0038, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_3_1", "weeks": 42, "avg_cross_section": 562.0, "mean_ic": -0.0014, "ic_t_stat": -0.05, "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0052, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "fip_id", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 558.4, "mean_ic": -0.0466, "ic_t_stat": -3.29, "ic_positive_pct": 25.7, "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0171, "reliable": true } ], "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", "recommendation": { "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit, 30-trading-day max hold, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "items": [ { "topic": "production", "text": "Production monitor (All history): +38.1% CAGR, Sharpe 1.57, max drawdown -23.6%." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 8 trades." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.23R/trade under the hold exit)." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.03R/trade under the hold exit)." }, { "topic": "cutoff", "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.16R over 598 setups)." }, { "topic": "benchmark", "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +168.5 points (+264.4% vs +95.9%)." }, { "topic": "robustness", "text": "Robustness WARNING: without the top 5% of winners the edge disappears (-0.01R net/trade gate-level grading, not the production ATR-trail book) \u2014 outlier-dependent, treat the headline expectancy with caution." } ], "basis_lookback": "all", "basis_lookback_label": "All history", "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." }, "research_recommendation": { "items": [ { "topic": "capacity_15", "candidate": false, "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.73 vs 1.73, CAGR +42.5% vs +42.5%, skipped 0 vs 0." }, { "topic": "cutoff_90", "candidate": false, "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.37 vs 1.73, drawdown 19.5% vs 18.3%, CAGR +30.0% vs +42.5%." }, { "topic": "low_vol_overlay", "candidate": false, "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.61 vs 1.73, drawdown 8.8% vs 18.3%, CAGR +17.1% vs +42.5%." }, { "topic": "high_vol_overlay", "candidate": false, "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.63 vs 1.73, drawdown 21.1% vs 18.3%, CAGR +40.9% vs +42.5%." } ], "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." } }