{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T19:43:42.466049+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 120265,
  "qualified": 1115,
  "params": {
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    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "gate_v2",
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
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    "wins": 385,
    "losses": 619,
    "expired": 111,
    "hit_rate": 38.3,
    "avg_r": 0.254,
    "total_r": 282.86,
    "net_avg_r": 0.21,
    "net_total_r": 233.77,
    "best_r": 4.05,
    "worst_r": -4.21,
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    "median_net_r": -1.031,
    "profit_factor": 1.34,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.065
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  "overall_all": {
    "total": 120265,
    "wins": 50763,
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    "hit_rate": 43.5,
    "avg_r": -0.035,
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
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      "avg_r": 0.254,
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  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
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      "expired": 49,
      "hit_rate": 39.8,
      "avg_r": 0.291,
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      "net_total_r": 135.67,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 1115,
      "wins": 385,
      "losses": 619,
      "expired": 111,
      "hit_rate": 38.3,
      "avg_r": 0.254,
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      "net_total_r": 233.77,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 1758,
      "wins": 587,
      "losses": 982,
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      "hit_rate": 37.4,
      "avg_r": 0.219,
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      "net_avg_r": 0.173,
      "net_total_r": 304.83,
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      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0136,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.28,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.028
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 2486,
      "wins": 817,
      "losses": 1382,
      "expired": 287,
      "hit_rate": 37.2,
      "avg_r": 0.214,
      "total_r": 530.96,
      "net_avg_r": 0.166,
      "net_total_r": 412.45,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0127,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.27,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.018
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 3396,
      "wins": 1063,
      "losses": 1928,
      "expired": 405,
      "hit_rate": 35.5,
      "avg_r": 0.169,
      "total_r": 575.14,
      "net_avg_r": 0.121,
      "net_total_r": 409.74,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0092,
      "median_net_r": -1.036,
      "profit_factor": 1.19,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.03
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 11810,
      "wins": 3008,
      "losses": 7479,
      "expired": 1323,
      "hit_rate": 28.7,
      "avg_r": -0.038,
      "total_r": -451.46,
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      "net_total_r": -1018.76,
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    {
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      "wins": 385,
      "losses": 619,
      "expired": 111,
      "hit_rate": 38.3,
      "avg_r": 0.254,
      "total_r": 282.86,
      "net_avg_r": 0.21,
      "net_total_r": 233.77,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
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      "net_r_per_day": 0.0166,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.34,
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      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.515,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.471,
      "hold_total_r": 574.41
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 1138,
      "wins": 391,
      "losses": 634,
      "expired": 113,
      "hit_rate": 38.1,
      "avg_r": 0.248,
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      "worst_r": -4.21,
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      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.059,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.512,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.468,
      "hold_total_r": 582.44
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3885,
      "wins": 1815,
      "losses": 1944,
      "expired": 126,
      "hit_rate": 48.3,
      "avg_r": 0.112,
      "total_r": 433.71,
      "net_avg_r": 0.059,
      "net_total_r": 229.43,
      "best_r": 4.05,
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      "median_net_r": -1.015,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.078,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.362,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.31,
      "hold_total_r": 1407.29
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 2196,
      "wins": 749,
      "losses": 1205,
      "expired": 242,
      "hit_rate": 38.3,
      "avg_r": 0.226,
      "total_r": 496.29,
      "net_avg_r": 0.182,
      "net_total_r": 399.11,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0139,
      "median_net_r": -1.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.041,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.534,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.49,
      "hold_total_r": 1172.38
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7747,
      "wins": 3589,
      "losses": 3870,
      "expired": 288,
      "hit_rate": 48.1,
      "avg_r": 0.107,
      "total_r": 828.27,
      "net_avg_r": 0.056,
      "net_total_r": 432.4,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0067,
      "median_net_r": -0.079,
      "profit_factor": 1.1,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.075,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.416,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.365,
      "hold_total_r": 3224.39
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 1115,
      "wins": 629,
      "win_rate": 56.4,
      "avg_r": 0.171,
      "total_r": 190.39,
      "net_avg_r": 0.127,
      "net_total_r": 141.3,
      "best_r": 5.67,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0281,
      "median_net_r": 0.128,
      "profit_factor": 1.37,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.002
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 1115,
      "wins": 594,
      "win_rate": 53.3,
      "avg_r": 0.358,
      "total_r": 399.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.314,
      "net_total_r": 350.53,
      "best_r": 5.86,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0394,
      "median_net_r": 0.119,
      "profit_factor": 1.71,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.132
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 1115,
      "wins": 508,
      "win_rate": 45.6,
      "avg_r": 0.534,
      "total_r": 595.7,
      "net_avg_r": 0.49,
      "net_total_r": 546.61,
      "best_r": 13.71,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0347,
      "median_net_r": -1.017,
      "profit_factor": 1.86,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.206
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 1115,
      "wins": 433,
      "win_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.515,
      "total_r": 574.41,
      "net_avg_r": 0.471,
      "net_total_r": 525.32,
      "best_r": 27.38,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0257,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.73,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.109
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12778.78,
        "total_return_pct": 27.8,
        "cagr_pct": 6.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 27.8,
        "sharpe": 0.49,
        "trades": 225,
        "win_rate": 38.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 12.35,
        "best_trade_r": 2.86,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 313.69,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -322.12,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 135,
          "target": 71,
          "time": 19
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 6.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14613.6,
        "total_return_pct": 46.1,
        "cagr_pct": 9.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2,
        "sharpe": 0.65,
        "trades": 180,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.63,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1046.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "time": 73
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 26,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 22.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14613.6,
        "total_return_pct": 46.1,
        "cagr_pct": 9.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2,
        "sharpe": 0.65,
        "trades": 180,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.63,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1046.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "time": 73
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 26,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 22.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12666.82,
        "total_return_pct": 26.7,
        "cagr_pct": 6.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5,
        "sharpe": 0.45,
        "trades": 175,
        "win_rate": 31.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 15.24,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1057.7,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -137.22,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 110,
          "time": 65
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 9.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12458.98,
        "total_return_pct": 24.6,
        "cagr_pct": 5.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 27.6,
        "sharpe": 0.43,
        "trades": 143,
        "win_rate": 32.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 17.2,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.24,
        "best_trade_pnl": 879.76,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -136.47,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 92,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 18,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -1.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 1.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14613.6,
        "total_return_pct": 46.1,
        "cagr_pct": 9.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2,
        "sharpe": 0.65,
        "trades": 180,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.63,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1046.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "time": 73
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15964.04,
        "total_return_pct": 59.6,
        "cagr_pct": 12.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.8,
        "sharpe": 0.75,
        "trades": 173,
        "win_rate": 35.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 34.47,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1139.63,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -400.2,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 106,
          "time": 67
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 32.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20512.15,
        "total_return_pct": 105.1,
        "cagr_pct": 19.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 1.13,
        "trades": 214,
        "win_rate": 33.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 49.12,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3859.38,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -555.28,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 97,
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 40.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15214.48,
        "total_return_pct": 52.1,
        "cagr_pct": 11.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.6,
        "sharpe": 0.68,
        "trades": 172,
        "win_rate": 33.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.32,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1117.33,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -340.53,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 12,
          "stop": 99,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 33.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15964.04,
        "total_return_pct": 59.6,
        "cagr_pct": 12.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.8,
        "sharpe": 0.75,
        "trades": 173,
        "win_rate": 35.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 34.47,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1139.63,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -400.2,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 106,
          "time": 67
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 32.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20669.03,
        "total_return_pct": 106.7,
        "cagr_pct": 19.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.2,
        "sharpe": 1.15,
        "trades": 181,
        "win_rate": 38.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 58.94,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3746.81,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -213.52,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 82,
          "time": 35,
          "trailing_stop": 64
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 36.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 44.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
    "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
    "strategies": [
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
        "lookback": "3y",
        "lookback_label": "3 years",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12850.41,
        "total_return_pct": 28.5,
        "cagr_pct": 8.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9,
        "sharpe": 0.66,
        "trades": 72,
        "win_rate": 33.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 39.59,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 772.18,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -233.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 40,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 67.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 7.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2023-07-03",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02",
        "equity_curve": [
          {
            "date": "2023-07-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-05",
            "equity": 9990.01,
            "return_pct": -0.1
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-06",
            "equity": 9830.42,
            "return_pct": -1.7
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-07",
            "equity": 9937.79,
            "return_pct": -0.62
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-10",
            "equity": 10225.76,
            "return_pct": 2.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-11",
            "equity": 10459.28,
            "return_pct": 4.59
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-12",
            "equity": 10557.18,
            "return_pct": 5.57
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-13",
            "equity": 11145.57,
            "return_pct": 11.46
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-14",
            "equity": 11015.75,
            "return_pct": 10.16
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-17",
            "equity": 11116.39,
            "return_pct": 11.16
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-18",
            "equity": 11273.93,
            "return_pct": 12.74
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-19",
            "equity": 11362.2,
            "return_pct": 13.62
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-20",
            "equity": 10960.25,
            "return_pct": 9.6
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-21",
            "equity": 10820.05,
            "return_pct": 8.2
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-24",
            "equity": 10749.45,
            "return_pct": 7.49
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-25",
            "equity": 10809.25,
            "return_pct": 8.09
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-26",
            "equity": 10832.41,
            "return_pct": 8.32
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-27",
            "equity": 10711.01,
            "return_pct": 7.11
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-28",
            "equity": 11123.54,
            "return_pct": 11.24
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-07-31",
            "equity": 11332.2,
            "return_pct": 13.32
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-01",
            "equity": 11209.31,
            "return_pct": 12.09
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-02",
            "equity": 11587.38,
            "return_pct": 15.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-03",
            "equity": 11467.36,
            "return_pct": 14.67
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-04",
            "equity": 11391.33,
            "return_pct": 13.91
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-07",
            "equity": 11371.62,
            "return_pct": 13.72
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-08",
            "equity": 11405.11,
            "return_pct": 14.05
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-09",
            "equity": 10942.95,
            "return_pct": 9.43
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-10",
            "equity": 10894.46,
            "return_pct": 8.94
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-11",
            "equity": 10783.79,
            "return_pct": 7.84
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-14",
            "equity": 11005.77,
            "return_pct": 10.06
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-15",
            "equity": 10838.21,
            "return_pct": 8.38
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-16",
            "equity": 10636.14,
            "return_pct": 6.36
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-17",
            "equity": 10519.93,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-18",
            "equity": 10576.86,
            "return_pct": 5.77
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-21",
            "equity": 10497.25,
            "return_pct": 4.97
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-22",
            "equity": 10572.31,
            "return_pct": 5.72
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-23",
            "equity": 10626.73,
            "return_pct": 6.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-24",
            "equity": 10341.44,
            "return_pct": 3.41
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-25",
            "equity": 10407.99,
            "return_pct": 4.08
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-28",
            "equity": 10463.23,
            "return_pct": 4.63
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-29",
            "equity": 10604.16,
            "return_pct": 6.04
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-30",
            "equity": 10700.4,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-08-31",
            "equity": 10689.37,
            "return_pct": 6.89
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-01",
            "equity": 10784.19,
            "return_pct": 7.84
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-05",
            "equity": 10651.37,
            "return_pct": 6.51
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-06",
            "equity": 10675.39,
            "return_pct": 6.75
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-07",
            "equity": 10454.4,
            "return_pct": 4.54
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-08",
            "equity": 10456.36,
            "return_pct": 4.56
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-11",
            "equity": 10410.01,
            "return_pct": 4.1
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-12",
            "equity": 10311.59,
            "return_pct": 3.12
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-13",
            "equity": 10170.28,
            "return_pct": 1.7
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-14",
            "equity": 10246.06,
            "return_pct": 2.46
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-15",
            "equity": 9936.29,
            "return_pct": -0.64
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-18",
            "equity": 9935.88,
            "return_pct": -0.64
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-19",
            "equity": 9854.53,
            "return_pct": -1.45
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-20",
            "equity": 9808.38,
            "return_pct": -1.92
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-21",
            "equity": 9647.15,
            "return_pct": -3.53
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-22",
            "equity": 9647.65,
            "return_pct": -3.52
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-25",
            "equity": 9633.96,
            "return_pct": -3.66
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-26",
            "equity": 9567.4,
            "return_pct": -4.33
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-27",
            "equity": 9592.24,
            "return_pct": -4.08
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-28",
            "equity": 9613.41,
            "return_pct": -3.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-09-29",
            "equity": 9627.21,
            "return_pct": -3.73
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-02",
            "equity": 9695.92,
            "return_pct": -3.04
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-03",
            "equity": 9472.98,
            "return_pct": -5.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-04",
            "equity": 9581.11,
            "return_pct": -4.19
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-05",
            "equity": 9621.18,
            "return_pct": -3.79
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-06",
            "equity": 9787.01,
            "return_pct": -2.13
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-09",
            "equity": 9898.32,
            "return_pct": -1.02
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-10",
            "equity": 10042.17,
            "return_pct": 0.42
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-11",
            "equity": 10097.17,
            "return_pct": 0.97
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-12",
            "equity": 9920.1,
            "return_pct": -0.8
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-13",
            "equity": 9680.09,
            "return_pct": -3.2
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-16",
            "equity": 9744.33,
            "return_pct": -2.56
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-17",
            "equity": 9799.58,
            "return_pct": -2.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-18",
            "equity": 9582.82,
            "return_pct": -4.17
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-19",
            "equity": 9415.32,
            "return_pct": -5.85
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-20",
            "equity": 9174.14,
            "return_pct": -8.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-23",
            "equity": 9188.33,
            "return_pct": -8.12
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-24",
            "equity": 9263.48,
            "return_pct": -7.37
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-25",
            "equity": 9039.07,
            "return_pct": -9.61
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-26",
            "equity": 8901.79,
            "return_pct": -10.98
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-27",
            "equity": 8816.54,
            "return_pct": -11.83
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-30",
            "equity": 8872.94,
            "return_pct": -11.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-10-31",
            "equity": 8887.07,
            "return_pct": -11.13
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-11-01",
            "equity": 8892.47,
            "return_pct": -11.08
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-11-02",
            "equity": 9053.43,
            "return_pct": -9.47
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-11-03",
            "equity": 9178.51,
            "return_pct": -8.21
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-11-06",
            "equity": 9250.76,
            "return_pct": -7.49
          },
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            "return_pct": 70.92
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            "date": "2026-06-03",
            "equity": 16995.43,
            "return_pct": 69.95
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            "date": "2026-06-04",
            "equity": 17059.65,
            "return_pct": 70.6
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "equity": 16619.35,
            "return_pct": 66.19
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            "date": "2026-06-08",
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            "return_pct": 66.57
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
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            "return_pct": 66.08
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            "return_pct": 63.46
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            "date": "2026-06-11",
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            "return_pct": 66.24
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            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "equity": 16713.99,
            "return_pct": 67.14
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            "date": "2026-06-15",
            "equity": 17008.72,
            "return_pct": 70.09
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            "date": "2026-06-16",
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            "return_pct": 69.07
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-17",
            "equity": 16696.19,
            "return_pct": 66.96
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "equity": 16826.43,
            "return_pct": 68.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-22",
            "equity": 16773.47,
            "return_pct": 67.73
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-23",
            "equity": 16529.89,
            "return_pct": 65.3
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-24",
            "equity": 16522.23,
            "return_pct": 65.22
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-25",
            "equity": 16546.11,
            "return_pct": 65.46
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "equity": 16426.46,
            "return_pct": 64.26
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            "date": "2026-06-29",
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            "date": "2026-06-30",
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            "date": "2026-07-02",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
        "lookback": "5y",
        "lookback_label": "5 years",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14613.6,
        "total_return_pct": 46.1,
        "cagr_pct": 7.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2,
        "sharpe": 0.58,
        "trades": 180,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.63,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1046.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "time": 73
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 26,
        "spy_return_pct": 72.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
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            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 22.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02",
        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
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          },
          {
            "date": "2021-07-07",
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            "date": "2021-07-08",
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            "date": "2021-07-09",
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            "date": "2021-07-13",
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            "date": "2021-07-15",
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            "date": "2021-07-19",
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        ]
      },
      {
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          {
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        ],
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
            "equity": 19362.93,
            "return_pct": 93.63
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-10",
            "equity": 19057.66,
            "return_pct": 90.58
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-11",
            "equity": 19381.58,
            "return_pct": 93.82
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "equity": 19486.4,
            "return_pct": 94.86
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-15",
            "equity": 19830.03,
            "return_pct": 98.3
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-16",
            "equity": 19711.81,
            "return_pct": 97.12
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-17",
            "equity": 19465.65,
            "return_pct": 94.66
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "equity": 19617.5,
            "return_pct": 96.17
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-22",
            "equity": 19555.76,
            "return_pct": 95.56
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-23",
            "equity": 19271.77,
            "return_pct": 92.72
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-24",
            "equity": 19262.84,
            "return_pct": 92.63
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-25",
            "equity": 19290.69,
            "return_pct": 92.91
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "equity": 19151.19,
            "return_pct": 91.51
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-29",
            "equity": 19466.7,
            "return_pct": 94.67
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-30",
            "equity": 19618.28,
            "return_pct": 96.18
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-01",
            "equity": 19591.75,
            "return_pct": 95.92
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-02",
            "equity": 19566.01,
            "return_pct": 95.66
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
    "variant": "gate_v2",
    "candidate_count": 120265,
    "primary_source_counts": {
      "pivot_point": 118639,
      "round_number": 67218,
      "volume_profile": 56608
    },
    "primary_round_only": 706,
    "primary_strength_100": 14137,
    "avg_primary_strength": 69.22,
    "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.175,
    "avg_primary_rejection_count": 7.461,
    "avg_raw_level_count": 23.962,
    "avg_gate_level_count": 22.975
  },
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    {
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CTVA",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CVS",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CVX",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "DLTR",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.907801,
      "strategy_rank": 79.11565,
      "rr": 1.568142,
      "primary_prob": 32.8,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 84.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.352213,
      "raw_level_count": 48,
      "gate_level_count": 48,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.681797,
      "hold30_r": -1.618907
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QCOM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 91.607565,
      "strategy_rank": 87.934258,
      "rr": 0.761088,
      "primary_prob": 48.81,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 57.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.141632,
      "raw_level_count": 30,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.721786,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 83.333333,
      "strategy_rank": 82.637579,
      "rr": 0.876763,
      "primary_prob": 65.57,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 87.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.315144,
      "raw_level_count": 42,
      "gate_level_count": 41,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055781,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SMCI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.817967,
      "strategy_rank": 99.066445,
      "rr": 0.670068,
      "primary_prob": 56.16,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 75.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 5,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.005102,
      "raw_level_count": 28,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.651918,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.943262,
      "strategy_rank": 83.140472,
      "rr": 0.994882,
      "primary_prob": 51.56,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.492324,
      "raw_level_count": 43,
      "gate_level_count": 42,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.945382,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SW",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.926714,
      "strategy_rank": 85.148228,
      "rr": 1.539787,
      "primary_prob": 28.91,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 62.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.309681,
      "raw_level_count": 37,
      "gate_level_count": 36,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055821,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TDG",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.716312,
      "strategy_rank": 69.664626,
      "rr": 1.184771,
      "primary_prob": 32.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 44.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.777157,
      "raw_level_count": 56,
      "gate_level_count": 55,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.062659,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": true,
      "meets_core": true,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.780142,
      "strategy_rank": 91.847986,
      "rr": 2.027159,
      "primary_prob": 30.72,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 33.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 0,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.040738,
      "raw_level_count": 29,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.988592,
      "hold30_r": 0.585276
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 94.680851,
      "strategy_rank": 78.41103,
      "rr": 0.806554,
      "primary_prob": 39.68,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 20.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 0,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.209831,
      "raw_level_count": 50,
      "gate_level_count": 46,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.054905,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "URI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.560284,
      "strategy_rank": 82.599274,
      "rr": 1.140563,
      "primary_prob": 44.46,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 96.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.710844,
      "raw_level_count": 45,
      "gate_level_count": 45,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.099856,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.416076,
      "strategy_rank": 81.3488,
      "rr": 1.02749,
      "primary_prob": 44.39,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 80.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.541235,
      "raw_level_count": 26,
      "gate_level_count": 25,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.980094,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.527187,
      "strategy_rank": 98.713842,
      "rr": 0.70987,
      "primary_prob": 52.07,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 63.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.064805,
      "raw_level_count": 32,
      "gate_level_count": 32,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.29078,
      "strategy_rank": 97.876188,
      "rr": 0.777976,
      "primary_prob": 50.15,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 67.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.166963,
      "raw_level_count": 21,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.754121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.789598,
      "strategy_rank": 73.160266,
      "rr": 1.774743,
      "primary_prob": 26.99,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 72.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.662115,
      "raw_level_count": 54,
      "gate_level_count": 52,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.390071,
      "strategy_rank": 91.784842,
      "rr": 0.953331,
      "primary_prob": 41.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 55.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.429997,
      "raw_level_count": 40,
      "gate_level_count": 39,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.910731,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.470449,
      "strategy_rank": 71.311862,
      "rr": 0.670856,
      "primary_prob": 57.13,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 80.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 11,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.006285,
      "raw_level_count": 29,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.606086,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.179669,
      "strategy_rank": 70.959259,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 29.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 70.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 41,
      "gate_level_count": 40,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.399527,
      "strategy_rank": 96.410801,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 51.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 89.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 31,
      "gate_level_count": 30,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +19.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.15, max drawdown -20.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 21 trading days with the initial stop (+0.49R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +9.9% vs +6.3% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 23 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.16R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.02R/trade and adds 1081 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.25R over 539 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: LAGS buy-and-hold by -49.6 points (+46.1% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221225.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 21d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 0.65 vs 0.65, CAGR +9.9% vs +9.9%, skipped 0 vs 26."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.43 vs 0.65, drawdown 27.6% vs 25.2%, CAGR +5.6% vs +9.9%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.36 vs 0.65, drawdown 7.0% vs 25.2%, CAGR +10.2% vs +9.9%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 0.75 vs 0.65, drawdown 21.8% vs 25.2%, CAGR +12.0% vs +9.9%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}