"""Tests for the historical backtest harness.""" from __future__ import annotations import math from datetime import date, timedelta from types import SimpleNamespace import pytest from app.models.ohlcv import OHLCVRecord from app.models.ticker import Ticker from app.services import backtest_service as bt from app.services.outcome_service import ( OUTCOME_EXPIRED, OUTCOME_STOP_HIT, OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, ) from tests.conftest import _test_session_factory # type: ignore @pytest.fixture async def session(): async with _test_session_factory() as s: yield s def _cand( prob: float, outcome: str, rr: float, qualified: bool = True, direction: str = "long", risk_pct: float = 0.05, ) -> dict: target_hit = outcome == OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT realized = rr if target_hit else (0.0 if outcome == OUTCOME_EXPIRED else -1.0) return { "primary_prob": prob, "outcome": outcome, "target_hit": target_hit, "rr": rr, "realized_r": realized, "qualified": qualified, "direction": direction, "risk_pct": risk_pct, } # Round-trip cost in R for the default _cand risk_pct: 2 * 0.001 / 0.05 = 0.04R. _COST_R_005 = 2 * bt.COST_PER_SIDE / 0.05 def _bar(high: float, low: float, close: float) -> SimpleNamespace: return SimpleNamespace(high=high, low=low, close=close) class TestTakeProfitPrimitives: def test_long_tp_reachable_before_stop(self): risk, stopped, mfe, close_pct = bt._tp_primitives("long", 100.0, 95.0, [_bar(109, 101, 108)], 30) assert risk == pytest.approx(0.05) assert stopped is False assert mfe == pytest.approx(0.09) assert close_pct == pytest.approx(0.08) def test_long_stop_zeroes_mfe(self): # Low pierces the stop on the only bar → loss, nothing banked before it. risk, stopped, mfe, close_pct = bt._tp_primitives("long", 100.0, 95.0, [_bar(101, 94, 96)], 30) assert stopped is True assert mfe == pytest.approx(0.0) assert close_pct == pytest.approx(-0.04) def test_long_drift_no_trigger(self): bars = [_bar(102, 99, 101), _bar(103, 100, 102)] risk, stopped, mfe, close_pct = bt._tp_primitives("long", 100.0, 95.0, bars, 30) assert stopped is False assert mfe == pytest.approx(0.03) assert close_pct == pytest.approx(0.02) def test_short_direction(self): # short entry 100, stop 105; price falls → favourable = (entry - low)/entry risk, stopped, mfe, close_pct = bt._tp_primitives("short", 100.0, 105.0, [_bar(101, 92, 93)], 30) assert risk == pytest.approx(0.05) assert stopped is False assert mfe == pytest.approx(0.08) assert close_pct == pytest.approx(0.07) class TestTakeProfitBucket: def test_bucket_mix(self): cands = [ {"risk_pct": 0.05, "mfe_pct": 0.09, "tp_stopped": False, "tp_close_pct": 0.08}, # +1.6R win {"risk_pct": 0.05, "mfe_pct": 0.02, "tp_stopped": True, "tp_close_pct": -0.04}, # -1R stop {"risk_pct": 0.05, "mfe_pct": 0.03, "tp_stopped": False, "tp_close_pct": 0.01}, # +0.2R timeout ] b = bt._take_profit_bucket(cands, 0.08) assert b["total"] == 3 assert b["wins"] == 1 assert b["hit_rate"] == pytest.approx(33.3, abs=0.1) assert b["total_r"] == pytest.approx(0.8, abs=0.01) assert b["avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.267, abs=0.01) # net: minus a 0.04R round trip per candidate (risk_pct 0.05) assert b["net_total_r"] == pytest.approx(0.8 - 3 * _COST_R_005, abs=0.01) assert b["net_avg_r"] == pytest.approx((0.8 - 3 * _COST_R_005) / 3, abs=0.01) def test_zero_risk_skipped(self): cands = [{"risk_pct": 0.0, "mfe_pct": 0.2, "tp_stopped": False, "tp_close_pct": 0.1}] b = bt._take_profit_bucket(cands, 0.08) assert b["total"] == 0 assert b["avg_r"] is None class TestTrailingExits: def test_locks_gain_on_pullback(self): # Runs to 120, then a 10% trail (from peak 120 → 108) is pierced on the drop. res = bt._trailing_exits("long", 100.0, 90.0, (0.10,), [_bar(120, 110, 118), _bar(130, 100, 105)], 30) assert res[10] == pytest.approx(0.8) # (108-100)/100 / 0.10 risk def test_initial_stop_caps_loss(self): # Trail (20%) is looser than the initial stop → initial stop governs = -1R. res = bt._trailing_exits("long", 100.0, 90.0, (0.20,), [_bar(101, 89, 90)], 30) assert res[20] == pytest.approx(-1.0) def test_timeout_exits_at_close(self): res = bt._trailing_exits("long", 100.0, 90.0, (0.20,), [_bar(105, 98, 104), _bar(106, 100, 105)], 30) assert res[20] == pytest.approx(0.5) # close 105 → +5% / 10% risk def test_multiple_widths_one_pass(self): # Tighter trail locks in more here (exit at 114 vs 108). res = bt._trailing_exits("long", 100.0, 90.0, (0.10, 0.05), [_bar(120, 110, 118), _bar(130, 100, 105)], 30) assert res[10] == pytest.approx(0.8) assert res[5] == pytest.approx(1.4) class TestTrailingBucket: def test_bucket(self): cands = [ {"trail_r": {5: 1.4, 10: 0.8}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, {"trail_r": {5: -1.0, 10: -1.0}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, {"trail_r": {5: 0.5, 10: 0.5}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, ] b = bt._trailing_bucket(cands, 5) assert b["total"] == 3 assert b["wins"] == 2 assert b["win_rate"] == pytest.approx(66.7, abs=0.1) assert b["total_r"] == pytest.approx(0.9, abs=0.01) assert b["avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.3, abs=0.01) # net: 0.02R round trip per candidate (risk_pct 0.10) assert b["net_total_r"] == pytest.approx(0.9 - 3 * 0.02, abs=0.01) assert b["net_avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.28, abs=0.01) class TestTimeExits: def test_long_exits_at_horizon_close(self): bars = [_bar(103, 99, 102), _bar(105, 101, 104), _bar(107, 103, 106)] res = bt._time_exits("long", 100.0, 95.0, bars, (2, 5)) assert res[2] == pytest.approx(0.8) # close 104 → +4% / 5% risk assert res[5] == pytest.approx(1.2) # only 3 bars → last close 106 def test_stop_on_first_bar_loses_everywhere(self): res = bt._time_exits("long", 100.0, 95.0, [_bar(101, 94, 96), _bar(105, 101, 104)], (1, 5)) assert res[1] == pytest.approx(-1.0) assert res[5] == pytest.approx(-1.0) def test_stop_after_short_horizon_only_hits_long_hold(self): # Day-2 close banked by the 2-day hold; the stop on day 3 only hits n=5. bars = [_bar(103, 99, 102), _bar(104, 100, 103), _bar(101, 94, 95)] res = bt._time_exits("long", 100.0, 95.0, bars, (2, 5)) assert res[2] == pytest.approx(0.6) # close 103 → +3% / 5% risk assert res[5] == pytest.approx(-1.0) def test_short_direction(self): res = bt._time_exits("short", 100.0, 105.0, [_bar(101, 95, 96)], (1,)) assert res[1] == pytest.approx(0.8) # close 96 → +4% / 5% risk def test_zero_risk_returns_zero(self): res = bt._time_exits("long", 100.0, 100.0, [_bar(103, 99, 102)], (5,)) assert res[5] == 0.0 class TestTimeExitBucket: def test_bucket(self): cands = [ {"time_r": {5: 1.4, 21: 0.8}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, {"time_r": {5: -1.0, 21: -1.0}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, {"time_r": {5: 0.5, 21: 0.5}, "risk_pct": 0.10}, ] b = bt._time_exit_bucket(cands, 5) assert b["hold_days"] == 5 assert b["total"] == 3 assert b["wins"] == 2 assert b["win_rate"] == pytest.approx(66.7, abs=0.1) assert b["avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.3, abs=0.01) assert b["net_avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.28, abs=0.01) def test_missing_hold_skipped(self): b = bt._time_exit_bucket([{"time_r": {5: 1.0}}], 21) assert b["total"] == 0 assert b["avg_r"] is None def _acand( rr: float = 2.0, conf: float = 60.0, action: str = "LONG_MODERATE", mp: float | None = 90.0, direction: str = "long", ) -> dict: """Ablation candidate: meets_core mirrors the default floors (min_rr 1.2, min_confidence 55, exclude_neutral on).""" meets = rr >= 1.2 and conf >= 55.0 and action != "NEUTRAL" return { "rr": rr, "confidence": conf, "action": action, "momentum_percentile": mp, "direction": direction, "meets_core": meets, "risk_level": "Low", "target_hit": True, "outcome": OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, "realized_r": rr, "risk_pct": 0.05, "time_r": {d: 0.5 for d in bt.TIME_EXIT_DAYS}, } class TestGateAblation: ACTIVATION = { "min_rr": 1.2, "min_confidence": 55.0, "exclude_neutral": True, "require_high_conviction": False, "exclude_conflicts": False, } def test_variant_counts(self): cands = [ _acand(), # clears everything _acand(conf=40.0), # fails confidence floor _acand(rr=1.0), # fails R:R floor _acand(action="NEUTRAL"), # fails NEUTRAL exclusion _acand(mp=50.0), # fails the momentum cutoff _acand(direction="short", mp=95.0), # short — gated out ] rows = {r["variant"]: r for r in bt._gate_ablation(cands, self.ACTIVATION, 80.0)} assert rows["all_floors"]["total"] == 1 assert rows["no_confidence_floor"]["total"] == 2 assert rows["no_rr_floor"]["total"] == 2 assert rows["no_neutral_exclusion"]["total"] == 2 assert rows["momentum_only"]["total"] == 4 assert rows["all_floors"]["net_avg_r"] is not None # Every variant is also graded under the hold-to-horizon exit. assert rows["all_floors"]["hold_days"] == max(bt.TIME_EXIT_DAYS) assert rows["all_floors"]["hold_avg_r"] == pytest.approx(0.5) assert rows["all_floors"]["hold_net_avg_r"] is not None assert rows["momentum_only"]["hold_total_r"] == pytest.approx(4 * 0.5, abs=0.01) def test_threshold_zero_disables_momentum_gate(self): # Floors only: the short and the low-momentum long both pass all_floors. cands = [_acand(mp=50.0), _acand(direction="short", mp=None)] rows = {r["variant"]: r for r in bt._gate_ablation(cands, self.ACTIVATION, 0.0)} assert rows["all_floors"]["total"] == 2 def test_bucket_stats_counts_and_expectancy(): cands = [ _cand(70, OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, 3.0), # +3R win _cand(60, OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, 2.0), # +2R win _cand(40, OUTCOME_STOP_HIT, 3.0), # -1R loss _cand(30, OUTCOME_EXPIRED, 3.0), # 0R expired ] s = bt._bucket_stats(cands) assert s["total"] == 4 assert s["wins"] == 2 assert s["losses"] == 1 assert s["expired"] == 1 # hit rate is over decided (wins+losses) only assert s["hit_rate"] == round(2 / 3 * 100, 1) # avg R = (3 + 2 - 1 + 0) / 4 = 1.0 assert s["avg_r"] == 1.0 assert s["total_r"] == 4.0 # net = gross minus a 0.04R round trip per candidate (risk_pct 0.05) assert s["net_avg_r"] == pytest.approx(1.0 - _COST_R_005, abs=0.001) assert s["net_total_r"] == pytest.approx(4.0 - 4 * _COST_R_005, abs=0.01) def test_bucket_stats_empty(): s = bt._bucket_stats([]) assert s["total"] == 0 assert s["hit_rate"] is None assert s["avg_r"] is None assert s["net_avg_r"] is None def test_bucket_stats_no_risk_pct_means_no_cost(): c = _cand(50, OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, 2.0) del c["risk_pct"] s = bt._bucket_stats([c]) assert s["net_avg_r"] == s["avg_r"] assert s["net_total_r"] == s["total_r"] def test_calibration_buckets(): cands = [ _cand(65, OUTCOME_TARGET_HIT, 2.0), _cand(62, OUTCOME_STOP_HIT, 2.0), _cand(15, OUTCOME_STOP_HIT, 2.0), ] rows = bt._calibration(cands) by_bucket = {r["bucket"]: r for r in rows} assert by_bucket["60-80%"]["n"] == 2 assert by_bucket["60-80%"]["realized_hit_rate"] == 50.0 # 1 of 2 hit assert by_bucket["0-20%"]["n"] == 1 assert by_bucket["0-20%"]["realized_hit_rate"] == 0.0 def test_window_setups_too_short_returns_empty(): assert bt._window_setups([], {}, {}) == [] def test_replay_ticker_candidates_carry_gate_fields(): """The ablation recomputes floors from candidate fields — a candidate missing action/risk_level silently zeroes the ablation rows (July 2026 regression).""" from app.services.admin_service import ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS from app.services.recommendation_service import DEFAULT_RECOMMENDATION_CONFIG base = date(2025, 1, 1) bars = [] for i in range(160): close = 100.0 + 8.0 * math.sin(i / 6.0) bars.append(SimpleNamespace( date=base + timedelta(days=i), open=close, high=close + 1.5, low=close - 1.5, close=close, volume=1_000_000 + (i % 5) * 1000, )) cands = bt._replay_ticker( "OSC", bars, dict(DEFAULT_RECOMMENDATION_CONFIG), dict(ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS) ) assert cands, "expected the oscillating series to produce candidates" for c in cands: assert c.get("action") is not None assert "risk_level" in c async def _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, symbol: str, n: int = 160) -> None: t = Ticker(symbol=symbol) session.add(t) await session.flush() base = date(2025, 1, 1) for i in range(n): close = 100.0 + 8.0 * math.sin(i / 6.0) session.add(OHLCVRecord( ticker_id=t.id, date=base + timedelta(days=i), open=close, high=close + 1.5, low=close - 1.5, close=close, volume=1_000_000 + (i % 5) * 1000, )) await session.commit() async def test_run_backtest_smoke(session): await _seed_oscillating_ticker(session, "OSC") report = await bt.run_backtest(session) # well-formed report assert report["tickers"] == 1 assert isinstance(report["candidates"], int) for key in ( "overall_qualified", "overall_all", "by_direction", "calibration", "sweep", "gate_ablation", "time_exit_sweep", ): assert key in report # the oscillating series should yield at least some resolved setups assert report["candidates"] >= 1 # cost assumption is reported, and every bucket carries net numbers assert report["params"]["cost_per_side_pct"] == pytest.approx(bt.COST_PER_SIDE * 100) assert "net_avg_r" in report["overall_all"] # ablation baseline reproduces the qualified set exactly, and every row # carries the hold-to-horizon grading alongside the target model ablation = {r["variant"]: r for r in report["gate_ablation"]} assert ablation["all_floors"]["total"] == report["overall_qualified"]["total"] for row in report["gate_ablation"]: assert "hold_net_avg_r" in row # time-exit sweep covers the configured hold lengths assert [r["hold_days"] for r in report["time_exit_sweep"]] == list(bt.TIME_EXIT_DAYS) # sweep: lowering the momentum-percentile cutoff can only add qualifiers sweep = sorted(report["sweep"], key=lambda r: r["min_momentum_percentile"], reverse=True) counts = [r["total"] for r in sweep] assert counts == sorted(counts) # ascending as threshold descends # every calibration row is internally consistent for row in report["calibration"]: assert 0 <= row["realized_hit_rate"] <= 100 assert row["n"] >= 1