{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T21:27:01.661724+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 120265,
  "qualified": 604,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "gate_v2_legacy_primary",
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 604,
    "wins": 213,
    "losses": 341,
    "expired": 50,
    "hit_rate": 38.4,
    "avg_r": 0.233,
    "total_r": 140.92,
    "net_avg_r": 0.187,
    "net_total_r": 113.24,
    "best_r": 4.05,
    "worst_r": -3.43,
    "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0155,
    "median_net_r": -1.033,
    "profit_factor": 1.3,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.041
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  "overall_all": {
    "total": 120265,
    "wins": 49881,
    "losses": 66989,
    "expired": 3395,
    "hit_rate": 42.7,
    "avg_r": -0.032,
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    "median_net_r": -1.035,
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    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.209
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 213,
      "losses": 341,
      "expired": 50,
      "hit_rate": 38.4,
      "avg_r": 0.233,
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    "short": {
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  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
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      "expired": 19,
      "hit_rate": 38.4,
      "avg_r": 0.222,
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      "net_total_r": 49.39,
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      "median_net_r": -1.032,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 213,
      "losses": 341,
      "expired": 50,
      "hit_rate": 38.4,
      "avg_r": 0.233,
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      "net_total_r": 113.24,
      "best_r": 4.05,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 1004,
      "wins": 354,
      "losses": 555,
      "expired": 95,
      "hit_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.238,
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      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.44,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0154,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.31,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.047
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1462,
      "wins": 515,
      "losses": 796,
      "expired": 151,
      "hit_rate": 39.3,
      "avg_r": 0.255,
      "total_r": 372.12,
      "net_avg_r": 0.206,
      "net_total_r": 300.51,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.44,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0163,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.34,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.063
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 2041,
      "wins": 689,
      "losses": 1130,
      "expired": 222,
      "hit_rate": 37.9,
      "avg_r": 0.218,
      "total_r": 444.26,
      "net_avg_r": 0.168,
      "net_total_r": 342.13,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.97,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0131,
      "median_net_r": -1.036,
      "profit_factor": 1.27,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.023
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 7443,
      "wins": 2042,
      "losses": 4623,
      "expired": 778,
      "hit_rate": 30.6,
      "avg_r": 0.003,
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      "net_avg_r": -0.046,
      "net_total_r": -344.83,
      "best_r": 6.46,
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      "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
      "net_r_per_day": -0.0037,
      "median_net_r": -1.041,
      "profit_factor": 0.93,
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    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 213,
      "losses": 341,
      "expired": 50,
      "hit_rate": 38.4,
      "avg_r": 0.233,
      "total_r": 140.92,
      "net_avg_r": 0.187,
      "net_total_r": 113.24,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0155,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.041,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.51,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.464,
      "hold_total_r": 307.86
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 627,
      "wins": 219,
      "losses": 356,
      "expired": 52,
      "hit_rate": 38.1,
      "avg_r": 0.223,
      "total_r": 139.73,
      "net_avg_r": 0.177,
      "net_total_r": 110.95,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0147,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.28,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.031,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.504,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.458,
      "hold_total_r": 315.9
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3885,
      "wins": 1814,
      "losses": 1974,
      "expired": 97,
      "hit_rate": 47.9,
      "avg_r": 0.121,
      "total_r": 470.52,
      "net_avg_r": 0.069,
      "net_total_r": 266.24,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0086,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.051,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.362,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.31,
      "hold_total_r": 1407.29
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 1359,
      "wins": 466,
      "losses": 758,
      "expired": 135,
      "hit_rate": 38.1,
      "avg_r": 0.205,
      "total_r": 278.13,
      "net_avg_r": 0.159,
      "net_total_r": 215.59,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.08,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0124,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 1.26,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.02,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.52,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.474,
      "hold_total_r": 706.94
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7747,
      "wins": 3464,
      "losses": 4006,
      "expired": 277,
      "hit_rate": 46.4,
      "avg_r": 0.118,
      "total_r": 912.43,
      "net_avg_r": 0.067,
      "net_total_r": 516.57,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0076,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.051,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.416,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.365,
      "hold_total_r": 3224.39
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 335,
      "win_rate": 55.5,
      "avg_r": 0.147,
      "total_r": 88.83,
      "net_avg_r": 0.101,
      "net_total_r": 61.15,
      "best_r": 5.67,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0227,
      "median_net_r": 0.097,
      "profit_factor": 1.29,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.026
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 308,
      "win_rate": 51.0,
      "avg_r": 0.318,
      "total_r": 192.3,
      "net_avg_r": 0.273,
      "net_total_r": 164.62,
      "best_r": 5.86,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0347,
      "median_net_r": 0.005,
      "profit_factor": 1.59,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.078
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 268,
      "win_rate": 44.4,
      "avg_r": 0.508,
      "total_r": 306.94,
      "net_avg_r": 0.462,
      "net_total_r": 279.26,
      "best_r": 7.63,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0334,
      "median_net_r": -1.022,
      "profit_factor": 1.8,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.192
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 604,
      "wins": 232,
      "win_rate": 38.4,
      "avg_r": 0.51,
      "total_r": 307.86,
      "net_avg_r": 0.464,
      "net_total_r": 280.19,
      "best_r": 9.85,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0258,
      "median_net_r": -1.035,
      "profit_factor": 1.7,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.117
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11551.15,
        "total_return_pct": 15.5,
        "cagr_pct": 7.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 28.7,
        "sharpe": 0.47,
        "trades": 204,
        "win_rate": 36.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 7.6,
        "best_trade_r": 3.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.69,
        "best_trade_pnl": 264.51,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -175.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 126,
          "target": 65,
          "time": 13
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 0.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14895.03,
        "total_return_pct": 49.0,
        "cagr_pct": 21.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.01,
        "trades": 158,
        "win_rate": 35.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 932.46,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -163.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 33.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14895.03,
        "total_return_pct": 49.0,
        "cagr_pct": 21.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.01,
        "trades": 158,
        "win_rate": 35.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 932.46,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -163.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 33.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11753.27,
        "total_return_pct": 17.5,
        "cagr_pct": 8.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.9,
        "sharpe": 0.49,
        "trades": 159,
        "win_rate": 28.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 11.03,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.52,
        "best_trade_pnl": 846.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -157.08,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 108,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 13.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 3.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10955.83,
        "total_return_pct": 9.6,
        "cagr_pct": 4.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.3,
        "sharpe": 0.34,
        "trades": 109,
        "win_rate": 31.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 8.77,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.34,
        "best_trade_pnl": 819.29,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -140.15,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 37
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 15.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14895.03,
        "total_return_pct": 49.0,
        "cagr_pct": 21.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.01,
        "trades": 158,
        "win_rate": 35.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 932.46,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -163.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 33.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13844.82,
        "total_return_pct": 38.4,
        "cagr_pct": 17.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 7.8,
        "sharpe": 1.79,
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        "win_rate": 50.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 72.54,
        "best_trade_r": 8.26,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -155.27,
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          "stop": 25,
          "time": 28
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 17.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 3.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-10"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 67.77,
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          "stop": 15,
          "time": 18
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 13.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-06-25"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11832.29,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 11.67,
        "best_trade_r": 8.91,
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          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 16.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.65,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 92,
          "time": 55
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14292.25,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.6,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.66,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -176.61,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 89,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 11.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16405.61,
        "total_return_pct": 64.1,
        "cagr_pct": 26.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.9,
        "sharpe": 1.21,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 41.59,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.81,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 93,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 45.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13622.42,
        "total_return_pct": 36.2,
        "cagr_pct": 15.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.2,
        "sharpe": 0.8,
        "trades": 157,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 23.07,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
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          "stop": 103,
          "time": 54
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14220.89,
        "total_return_pct": 42.2,
        "cagr_pct": 18.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.4,
        "sharpe": 0.89,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 26.88,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 99,
          "time": 58
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13681.67,
        "total_return_pct": 36.8,
        "cagr_pct": 16.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.8,
        "sharpe": 0.82,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 23.75,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.77,
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          "stop": 99,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14182.37,
        "total_return_pct": 41.8,
        "cagr_pct": 14.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 34.1,
        "sharpe": 0.58,
        "trades": 284,
        "win_rate": 32.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 14.73,
        "best_trade_r": 9.85,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 908.28,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -535.2,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 185,
          "time": 99
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 570,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -30.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 129.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -11.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12024.44,
        "total_return_pct": 20.2,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 36.7,
        "sharpe": 0.38,
        "trades": 290,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 6.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.85,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -460.38,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 191,
          "time": 99
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 356,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -33.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 107.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -13.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10966.06,
        "total_return_pct": 9.7,
        "cagr_pct": 3.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 43.3,
        "sharpe": 0.27,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 3.62,
        "best_trade_r": 9.85,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -411.65,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 177,
          "time": 90
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 133,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 112.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -11.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10757.69,
        "total_return_pct": 7.6,
        "cagr_pct": 3.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.0,
        "sharpe": 0.32,
        "trades": 115,
        "win_rate": 30.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 6.59,
        "best_trade_r": 8.62,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.94,
        "best_trade_pnl": 534.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -129.41,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 75,
          "time": 40
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 1.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-04-05"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13622.42,
        "total_return_pct": 36.2,
        "cagr_pct": 15.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.2,
        "sharpe": 0.8,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 23.07,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 967.29,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 103,
          "time": 54
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 21.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15171.16,
        "total_return_pct": 51.7,
        "cagr_pct": 22.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.3,
        "sharpe": 1.07,
        "trades": 195,
        "win_rate": 33.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 26.52,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.4,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1049.05,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -166.9,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 74,
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 49
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 45.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -1.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13509.07,
        "total_return_pct": 35.1,
        "cagr_pct": 15.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 0.79,
        "trades": 158,
        "win_rate": 31.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 22.21,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 970.24,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 11,
          "stop": 97,
          "time": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13622.42,
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        "cagr_pct": 15.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.2,
        "sharpe": 0.8,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 23.07,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 967.29,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 103,
          "time": 54
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 21.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13819.51,
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        "cagr_pct": 16.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.7,
        "sharpe": 0.87,
        "trades": 168,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 22.74,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.34,
        "best_trade_pnl": 945.5,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -142.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 77,
          "time": 28,
          "trailing_stop": 63
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 9.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 17.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 7.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
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        },
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          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
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            "date": "2023-07-03",
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            "date": "2023-07-11",
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            "date": "2023-07-12",
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            "date": "2023-07-14",
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            "date": "2023-07-18",
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            "return_pct": -0.17
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            "return_pct": -0.46
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            "return_pct": -0.83
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            "return_pct": -0.3
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            "equity": 10217.08,
            "return_pct": 2.17
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            "date": "2023-12-11",
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            "return_pct": 1.03
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            "equity": 10137.97,
            "return_pct": 1.38
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            "date": "2023-12-13",
            "equity": 10454.47,
            "return_pct": 4.54
          },
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            "date": "2023-12-14",
            "equity": 10870.3,
            "return_pct": 8.7
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-15",
            "equity": 10829.54,
            "return_pct": 8.3
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-18",
            "equity": 11096.5,
            "return_pct": 10.97
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-19",
            "equity": 11226.94,
            "return_pct": 12.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-20",
            "equity": 10983.2,
            "return_pct": 9.83
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        ]
      },
      {
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        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
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            "date": "2021-09-07",
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            "date": "2021-09-21",
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            "date": "2021-09-23",
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            "date": "2021-09-24",
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            "date": "2021-10-11",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-10-12",
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            "date": "2021-10-13",
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            "date": "2021-10-20",
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            "date": "2021-10-21",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-22",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-25",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-27",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-10-28",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-10-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-04",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-05",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-08",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-09",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-10",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-11",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-12",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-15",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-16",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-17",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-18",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2024-07-16",
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      },
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            "date": "2024-07-15",
            "equity": 14751.87,
            "return_pct": 47.52
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-16",
            "equity": 14839.35,
            "return_pct": 48.39
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-17",
            "equity": 14631.29,
            "return_pct": 46.31
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-18",
            "equity": 14518.85,
            "return_pct": 45.19
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-19",
            "equity": 14422.44,
            "return_pct": 44.22
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-22",
            "equity": 14571.13,
            "return_pct": 45.71
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-23",
            "equity": 14548.27,
            "return_pct": 45.48
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-24",
            "equity": 14218.57,
            "return_pct": 42.19
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-25",
            "equity": 14144.49,
            "return_pct": 41.44
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-26",
            "equity": 14302.9,
            "return_pct": 43.03
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-29",
            "equity": 14311.31,
            "return_pct": 43.11
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-30",
            "equity": 14238.8,
            "return_pct": 42.39
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-31",
            "equity": 14470.25,
            "return_pct": 44.7
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
    "variant": "gate_v2_legacy_primary",
    "candidate_count": 120265,
    "primary_source_counts": {
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      "volume_profile": 56554
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    "primary_round_only": 630,
    "primary_strength_100": 13630,
    "avg_primary_strength": 69.06,
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    "avg_primary_rejection_count": 7.408,
    "avg_raw_level_count": 23.962,
    "avg_gate_level_count": 22.975
  },
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CTVA",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    {
      "symbol": "CVS",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CVX",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "DLTR",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "DVN",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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      "hold30_r": -1.618907
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QCOM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 91.607565,
      "strategy_rank": 87.934258,
      "rr": 1.54184,
      "primary_prob": 27.27,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 54.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.312761,
      "raw_level_count": 30,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.039302,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 83.333333,
      "strategy_rank": 82.637579,
      "rr": 0.876763,
      "primary_prob": 65.57,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 87.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.315144,
      "raw_level_count": 42,
      "gate_level_count": 41,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055781,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SMCI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.817967,
      "strategy_rank": 99.066445,
      "rr": 1.922716,
      "primary_prob": 23.08,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 63.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.884074,
      "raw_level_count": 28,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.01815,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.943262,
      "strategy_rank": 83.140472,
      "rr": 0.994882,
      "primary_prob": 51.56,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.492324,
      "raw_level_count": 43,
      "gate_level_count": 42,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.945382,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SW",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.926714,
      "strategy_rank": 85.148228,
      "rr": 1.539787,
      "primary_prob": 28.91,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 62.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.309681,
      "raw_level_count": 37,
      "gate_level_count": 36,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055821,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TDG",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.716312,
      "strategy_rank": 69.664626,
      "rr": 1.184771,
      "primary_prob": 32.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 44.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.777157,
      "raw_level_count": 56,
      "gate_level_count": 55,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.062659,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.780142,
      "strategy_rank": 91.847986,
      "rr": 1.557928,
      "primary_prob": 37.78,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 33.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 0,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.336892,
      "raw_level_count": 29,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.519362,
      "hold30_r": 0.585276
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 94.680851,
      "strategy_rank": 78.41103,
      "rr": 0.806554,
      "primary_prob": 39.68,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 20.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 0,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.209831,
      "raw_level_count": 50,
      "gate_level_count": 46,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.054905,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "URI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.560284,
      "strategy_rank": 82.599274,
      "rr": 1.75906,
      "primary_prob": 29.83,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 85.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 11,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.638591,
      "raw_level_count": 45,
      "gate_level_count": 45,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.718354,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.416076,
      "strategy_rank": 81.3488,
      "rr": 1.889593,
      "primary_prob": 25.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 75.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.834389,
      "raw_level_count": 26,
      "gate_level_count": 25,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.497408,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.527187,
      "strategy_rank": 98.713842,
      "rr": 1.613307,
      "primary_prob": 24.0,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 44.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.419961,
      "raw_level_count": 32,
      "gate_level_count": 32,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.29078,
      "strategy_rank": 97.876188,
      "rr": 0.777976,
      "primary_prob": 50.15,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 67.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.166963,
      "raw_level_count": 21,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.754121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.789598,
      "strategy_rank": 73.160266,
      "rr": 1.774743,
      "primary_prob": 26.99,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 72.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.662115,
      "raw_level_count": 54,
      "gate_level_count": 52,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.390071,
      "strategy_rank": 91.784842,
      "rr": 0.953331,
      "primary_prob": 41.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 55.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.429997,
      "raw_level_count": 40,
      "gate_level_count": 39,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.910731,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.470449,
      "strategy_rank": 71.311862,
      "rr": 1.645747,
      "primary_prob": 30.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 80.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.46862,
      "raw_level_count": 29,
      "gate_level_count": 28,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.580977,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.179669,
      "strategy_rank": 70.959259,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 29.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 70.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 41,
      "gate_level_count": 40,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.399527,
      "strategy_rank": 96.410801,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 51.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 89.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 31,
      "gate_level_count": 30,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +16.7% CAGR, Sharpe 0.87, max drawdown -20.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.46R net/trade vs +0.19R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +21.0% vs +7.1% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 23 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.15R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.01R/trade and adds 755 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 60 has the best per-trade net (+0.21R over 1462 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +4.3 points (+49.0% vs +44.7%), max drawdown \u221216.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.12R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.01 vs 1.01, CAGR +21.0% vs +21.0%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.34 vs 1.01, drawdown 19.3% vs 16.2%, CAGR +4.5% vs +21.0%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.79 vs 1.01, drawdown 7.8% vs 16.2%, CAGR +17.3% vs +21.0%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.21 vs 1.01, drawdown 16.9% vs 16.2%, CAGR +26.7% vs +21.0%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}