{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T21:25:23.277609+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 119180,
  "qualified": 570,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "confirmed_rounds_legacy_primary",
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 570,
    "wins": 204,
    "losses": 321,
    "expired": 45,
    "hit_rate": 38.9,
    "avg_r": 0.235,
    "total_r": 134.02,
    "net_avg_r": 0.189,
    "net_total_r": 107.72,
    "best_r": 4.05,
    "worst_r": -3.43,
    "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0157,
    "median_net_r": -1.033,
    "profit_factor": 1.3,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 119180,
    "wins": 48847,
    "losses": 66755,
    "expired": 3578,
    "hit_rate": 42.3,
    "avg_r": -0.036,
    "total_r": -4279.6,
    "net_avg_r": -0.09,
    "net_total_r": -10778.82,
    "best_r": 6.46,
    "worst_r": -8.6,
    "avg_hold_days": 8.1,
    "net_r_per_day": -0.0111,
    "median_net_r": -1.035,
    "profit_factor": 0.85,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.214
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 204,
      "losses": 321,
      "expired": 45,
      "hit_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.235,
      "total_r": 134.02,
      "net_avg_r": 0.189,
      "net_total_r": 107.72,
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      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045
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    "short": {
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      "hit_rate": null,
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      "total_r": null,
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      "net_r_per_day": null,
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      "profit_factor": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
      "total": 255,
      "wins": 88,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 16,
      "hit_rate": 36.8,
      "avg_r": 0.159,
      "total_r": 40.53,
      "net_avg_r": 0.117,
      "net_total_r": 29.96,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0106,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.18,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.026
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 204,
      "losses": 321,
      "expired": 45,
      "hit_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.235,
      "total_r": 134.02,
      "net_avg_r": 0.189,
      "net_total_r": 107.72,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
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      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 966,
      "wins": 339,
      "losses": 538,
      "expired": 89,
      "hit_rate": 38.7,
      "avg_r": 0.22,
      "total_r": 212.48,
      "net_avg_r": 0.172,
      "net_total_r": 166.05,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.44,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.014,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.27,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.029
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1403,
      "wins": 489,
      "losses": 774,
      "expired": 140,
      "hit_rate": 38.7,
      "avg_r": 0.23,
      "total_r": 322.69,
      "net_avg_r": 0.181,
      "net_total_r": 253.62,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.44,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0145,
      "median_net_r": -1.035,
      "profit_factor": 1.29,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.037
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 1954,
      "wins": 651,
      "losses": 1091,
      "expired": 212,
      "hit_rate": 37.4,
      "avg_r": 0.194,
      "total_r": 379.41,
      "net_avg_r": 0.144,
      "net_total_r": 281.32,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.97,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0113,
      "median_net_r": -1.037,
      "profit_factor": 1.23,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.0
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 7010,
      "wins": 1893,
      "losses": 4371,
      "expired": 746,
      "hit_rate": 30.2,
      "avg_r": -0.013,
      "total_r": -93.84,
      "net_avg_r": -0.063,
      "net_total_r": -439.75,
      "best_r": 6.46,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
      "net_r_per_day": -0.005,
      "median_net_r": -1.042,
      "profit_factor": 0.91,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.221
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 204,
      "losses": 321,
      "expired": 45,
      "hit_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.235,
      "total_r": 134.02,
      "net_avg_r": 0.189,
      "net_total_r": 107.72,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0157,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.522,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.475,
      "hold_total_r": 297.34
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 593,
      "wins": 210,
      "losses": 336,
      "expired": 47,
      "hit_rate": 38.5,
      "avg_r": 0.224,
      "total_r": 132.83,
      "net_avg_r": 0.178,
      "net_total_r": 105.43,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0148,
      "median_net_r": -1.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.28,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.034,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.515,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.469,
      "hold_total_r": 305.37
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3908,
      "wins": 1824,
      "losses": 1988,
      "expired": 96,
      "hit_rate": 47.8,
      "avg_r": 0.121,
      "total_r": 471.68,
      "net_avg_r": 0.068,
      "net_total_r": 265.69,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0085,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.049,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.371,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.318,
      "hold_total_r": 1450.17
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 1339,
      "wins": 459,
      "losses": 744,
      "expired": 136,
      "hit_rate": 38.2,
      "avg_r": 0.201,
      "total_r": 269.11,
      "net_avg_r": 0.155,
      "net_total_r": 207.15,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -4.08,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0121,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 1.25,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.017,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.528,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.482,
      "hold_total_r": 707.25
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7773,
      "wins": 3481,
      "losses": 4012,
      "expired": 280,
      "hit_rate": 46.5,
      "avg_r": 0.12,
      "total_r": 936.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.069,
      "net_total_r": 538.8,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0079,
      "median_net_r": -1.024,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.047,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.422,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.37,
      "hold_total_r": 3276.84
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 319,
      "win_rate": 56.0,
      "avg_r": 0.165,
      "total_r": 93.89,
      "net_avg_r": 0.119,
      "net_total_r": 67.58,
      "best_r": 5.67,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0265,
      "median_net_r": 0.116,
      "profit_factor": 1.34,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.01
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 293,
      "win_rate": 51.4,
      "avg_r": 0.346,
      "total_r": 197.2,
      "net_avg_r": 0.3,
      "net_total_r": 170.9,
      "best_r": 5.86,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0379,
      "median_net_r": 0.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.66,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.107
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 255,
      "win_rate": 44.7,
      "avg_r": 0.521,
      "total_r": 296.79,
      "net_avg_r": 0.475,
      "net_total_r": 270.48,
      "best_r": 7.63,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.034,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.82,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.212
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 570,
      "wins": 221,
      "win_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.522,
      "total_r": 297.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.475,
      "net_total_r": 271.03,
      "best_r": 9.85,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0263,
      "median_net_r": -1.035,
      "profit_factor": 1.72,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.133
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11267.49,
        "total_return_pct": 12.7,
        "cagr_pct": 5.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.3,
        "sharpe": 0.41,
        "trades": 208,
        "win_rate": 38.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 6.09,
        "best_trade_r": 2.93,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.69,
        "best_trade_pnl": 278.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -185.99,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 126,
          "target": 67,
          "time": 15
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 4.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17179.58,
        "total_return_pct": 71.8,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.37,
        "trades": 151,
        "win_rate": 35.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.55,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1031.13,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -177.35,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 95,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 3.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17179.58,
        "total_return_pct": 71.8,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.37,
        "trades": 151,
        "win_rate": 35.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.55,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1031.13,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -177.35,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 95,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 3.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11039.78,
        "total_return_pct": 10.4,
        "cagr_pct": 4.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 0.34,
        "trades": 155,
        "win_rate": 29.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 6.71,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.68,
        "best_trade_pnl": 844.06,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -157.08,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 105,
          "time": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 8.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10877.56,
        "total_return_pct": 8.8,
        "cagr_pct": 4.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.1,
        "sharpe": 0.32,
        "trades": 111,
        "win_rate": 30.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 7.91,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.93,
        "best_trade_pnl": 786.65,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -140.15,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 75,
          "time": 36
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 11.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 1.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17179.58,
        "total_return_pct": 71.8,
        "cagr_pct": 29.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.37,
        "trades": 151,
        "win_rate": 35.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.55,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1031.13,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -177.35,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 95,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 3.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13578.83,
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        "cagr_pct": 16.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 7.8,
        "sharpe": 1.67,
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        "win_rate": 50.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 68.82,
        "best_trade_r": 8.26,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -151.13,
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          "stop": 25,
          "time": 27
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 17.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-10"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 50.83,
        "best_trade_r": 5.21,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 16,
          "time": 15
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.1,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-06-25"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14723.82,
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        "cagr_pct": 20.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.3,
        "sharpe": 1.14,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 31.08,
        "best_trade_r": 9.03,
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          "stop": 95,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16804.51,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.29,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -176.61,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 90,
          "time": 57
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16885.61,
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        "cagr_pct": 28.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.7,
        "sharpe": 1.3,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 53.38,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -176.61,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 78,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 14.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15389.69,
        "total_return_pct": 53.9,
        "cagr_pct": 22.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.9,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 35.23,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.81,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 95,
          "time": 58
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 25.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15048.72,
        "total_return_pct": 50.5,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.1,
        "sharpe": 1.06,
        "trades": 156,
        "win_rate": 34.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.36,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 863.34,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 100,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17349.84,
        "total_return_pct": 73.5,
        "cagr_pct": 30.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.3,
        "sharpe": 1.36,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 48.35,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -179.1,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 93,
          "time": 59
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 12.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16119.95,
        "total_return_pct": 61.2,
        "cagr_pct": 25.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.8,
        "sharpe": 1.21,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 39.74,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.77,
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          "stop": 96,
          "time": 58
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 11.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11138.9,
        "total_return_pct": 11.4,
        "cagr_pct": 4.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 37.0,
        "sharpe": 0.29,
        "trades": 285,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 4.0,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -465.97,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 192,
          "time": 93
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 326,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -33.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 83.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -8.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9491.56,
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        "cagr_pct": -2.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 40.2,
        "sharpe": 0.09,
        "trades": 285,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": -1.78,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -437.65,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 195,
          "time": 90
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 189,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
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          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -37.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 71.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -12.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9284.4,
        "total_return_pct": -7.2,
        "cagr_pct": -2.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 45.3,
        "sharpe": 0.06,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": -2.69,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -385.95,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 185,
          "time": 81
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 28,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 91.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10758.03,
        "total_return_pct": 7.6,
        "cagr_pct": 3.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.0,
        "sharpe": 0.32,
        "trades": 115,
        "win_rate": 30.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 6.59,
        "best_trade_r": 8.62,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.94,
        "best_trade_pnl": 534.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -129.41,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 75,
          "time": 40
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 1.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-04-05"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15048.72,
        "total_return_pct": 50.5,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.1,
        "sharpe": 1.06,
        "trades": 156,
        "win_rate": 34.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.36,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 863.34,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 100,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 21.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 18151.27,
        "total_return_pct": 81.5,
        "cagr_pct": 33.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.3,
        "sharpe": 1.54,
        "trades": 186,
        "win_rate": 33.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.82,
        "best_trade_r": 9.85,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.4,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1336.15,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -199.69,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 74,
          "stop": 64,
          "time": 48
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 57.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15411.75,
        "total_return_pct": 54.1,
        "cagr_pct": 23.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.2,
        "sharpe": 1.12,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 33.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 34.47,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 877.35,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 7,
          "stop": 96,
          "time": 54
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
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            "return_pct": 6.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 22.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15048.72,
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        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.1,
        "sharpe": 1.06,
        "trades": 156,
        "win_rate": 34.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.36,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.39,
        "best_trade_pnl": 863.34,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -172.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 100,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 44.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 21.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15194.67,
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        "cagr_pct": 22.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.2,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 31.87,
        "best_trade_r": 9.09,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -153.37,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 76,
          "time": 32,
          "trailing_stop": 55
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 17.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
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      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
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        },
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          }
        ],
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            "date": "2023-07-03",
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            "equity": 9524.55,
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            "date": "2023-12-13",
            "equity": 10104.93,
            "return_pct": 1.05
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            "date": "2023-12-14",
            "equity": 10304.42,
            "return_pct": 3.04
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            "date": "2023-12-15",
            "equity": 10199.87,
            "return_pct": 2.0
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            "date": "2023-12-18",
            "equity": 10323.36,
            "return_pct": 3.23
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            "date": "2023-12-19",
            "equity": 10366.1,
            "return_pct": 3.66
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            "date": "2023-12-20",
            "equity": 10229.77,
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            "date": "2024-07-03",
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        ]
      },
      {
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        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
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            "date": "2021-07-07",
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            "date": "2021-09-21",
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            "date": "2021-09-24",
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            "date": "2021-10-11",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-10-12",
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            "date": "2021-10-20",
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            "date": "2021-10-21",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-22",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-25",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-27",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-10-28",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-10-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-04",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-05",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-08",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-09",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-10",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-11",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-12",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-15",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-16",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-17",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
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            "date": "2023-01-04",
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            "date": "2024-07-15",
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            "date": "2024-07-16",
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            "date": "2024-07-18",
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            "date": "2024-07-22",
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      },
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            "equity": 14711.41,
            "return_pct": 47.11
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-15",
            "equity": 14751.87,
            "return_pct": 47.52
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-16",
            "equity": 14839.35,
            "return_pct": 48.39
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-17",
            "equity": 14631.29,
            "return_pct": 46.31
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-18",
            "equity": 14518.85,
            "return_pct": 45.19
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-19",
            "equity": 14422.44,
            "return_pct": 44.22
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-22",
            "equity": 14571.13,
            "return_pct": 45.71
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-23",
            "equity": 14548.27,
            "return_pct": 45.48
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-24",
            "equity": 14218.57,
            "return_pct": 42.19
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-25",
            "equity": 14144.49,
            "return_pct": 41.44
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-26",
            "equity": 14302.9,
            "return_pct": 43.03
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-29",
            "equity": 14311.31,
            "return_pct": 43.11
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-30",
            "equity": 14238.8,
            "return_pct": 42.39
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-31",
            "equity": 14470.25,
            "return_pct": 44.7
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
    "variant": "confirmed_rounds_legacy_primary",
    "candidate_count": 119180,
    "primary_source_counts": {
      "pivot_point": 117710,
      "round_number": 67364,
      "volume_profile": 57059
    },
    "primary_round_only": 564,
    "primary_strength_100": 13573,
    "avg_primary_strength": 69.595,
    "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.246,
    "avg_primary_rejection_count": 7.491,
    "avg_raw_level_count": 15.029,
    "avg_gate_level_count": 14.19
  },
  "sr_candidate_audit": [
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    },
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CTVA",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "CVS",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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        "round_number"
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      "primary_distance_atr": 2.826492,
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      "hold30_r": 3.076836
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CVX",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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        "volume_profile"
      ],
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      "net_r": -1.033826,
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "DLTR",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "symbol": "DVN",
      "date": "2022-06-28",
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      "momentum_percentile": 99.675676,
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        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 85.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 11,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.638591,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.718354,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.433735,
      "strategy_rank": 81.230538,
      "rr": 1.889593,
      "primary_prob": 25.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 75.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.834389,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.497408,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.518072,
      "strategy_rank": 98.689093,
      "rr": 1.613307,
      "primary_prob": 24.0,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 44.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.419961,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.277108,
      "strategy_rank": 97.835322,
      "rr": 0.777976,
      "primary_prob": 50.15,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 67.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.166963,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.754121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.771084,
      "strategy_rank": 72.944567,
      "rr": 1.230708,
      "primary_prob": 37.8,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 74.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.846063,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.301205,
      "strategy_rank": 91.626709,
      "rr": 0.953331,
      "primary_prob": 41.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 55.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.429997,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.910731,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.590361,
      "strategy_rank": 71.229118,
      "rr": 1.645747,
      "primary_prob": 30.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 80.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.46862,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.580977,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.192771,
      "strategy_rank": 70.785421,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 29.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 70.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.349398,
      "strategy_rank": 96.341694,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 51.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 89.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +22.1% CAGR, Sharpe 1.14, max drawdown -20.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 21 trading days with the initial stop (+0.47R net/trade vs +0.19R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +29.5% vs +5.9% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 23 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.16R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.01R/trade and adds 769 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.19R over 570 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +27.1 points (+71.8% vs +44.7%), max drawdown \u221216.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 21d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.37 vs 1.37, CAGR +29.5% vs +29.5%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.32 vs 1.37, drawdown 21.1% vs 16.2%, CAGR +4.1% vs +29.5%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.67 vs 1.37, drawdown 7.8% vs 16.2%, CAGR +16.2% vs +29.5%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.36 vs 1.37, drawdown 16.3% vs 16.2%, CAGR +30.1% vs +29.5%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}