{ "generated_at": "2026-09-07T08:45:44.687805+00:00", "tickers": 506, "rank_only_tickers": 0, "candidates": 202765, "qualified": 1086, "params": { "step_days": 5, "step_sessions": 5, "entry_cadence": "weekly", "signal_eval_cadence": "weekly", "horizon_days": 30, "min_lookback": 60, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "target_model": "production_gtl", "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)", "is_production_target_model": true, "production_reentry_policy": "gate_reset", "liquid_breadth_top_n": null, "liquid_min_price": null, "signal_eval_only": false }, "activation": { "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "min_rr": 2.0, "min_confidence": 0.0, "require_high_conviction": false, "exclude_conflicts": false, "exclude_neutral": true }, "overall_qualified": { "total": 1086, "wins": 379, "losses": 591, "expired": 116, "hit_rate": 39.1, "avg_r": 0.255, "total_r": 276.76, "net_avg_r": 0.209, "net_total_r": 226.56, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0174, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.34, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049 }, "overall_all": { "total": 202765, "wins": 82220, "losses": 113809, "expired": 6736, "hit_rate": 41.9, "avg_r": -0.04, "total_r": -8186.18, "net_avg_r": -0.095, "net_total_r": -19184.55, "best_r": 9.24, "worst_r": -16.42, "avg_hold_days": 8.2, "net_r_per_day": -0.0115, "median_net_r": -1.035, "profit_factor": 0.85, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.22 }, "by_direction": { "long": { "total": 1086, "wins": 379, "losses": 591, "expired": 116, "hit_rate": 39.1, "avg_r": 0.255, "total_r": 276.76, "net_avg_r": 0.209, "net_total_r": 226.56, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0174, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.34, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049 }, "short": { "total": 0, "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "expired": 0, "hit_rate": null, "avg_r": null, "total_r": null, "net_avg_r": null, "net_total_r": null, "best_r": null, "worst_r": null, "avg_hold_days": null, "net_r_per_day": null, "median_net_r": null, "profit_factor": null, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null } }, "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "sweep": [ { "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0, "total": 497, "wins": 177, "losses": 269, "expired": 51, "hit_rate": 39.7, "avg_r": 0.276, "total_r": 137.05, "net_avg_r": 0.235, "net_total_r": 116.55, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0199, "median_net_r": -1.026, "profit_factor": 1.39, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.071 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, "total": 1086, "wins": 379, "losses": 591, "expired": 116, "hit_rate": 39.1, "avg_r": 0.255, "total_r": 276.76, "net_avg_r": 0.209, "net_total_r": 226.56, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0174, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.34, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, "total": 1841, "wins": 597, "losses": 1062, "expired": 182, "hit_rate": 36.0, "avg_r": 0.152, "total_r": 280.26, "net_avg_r": 0.104, "net_total_r": 190.75, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 11.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0088, "median_net_r": -1.037, "profit_factor": 1.16, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, "total": 2772, "wins": 873, "losses": 1611, "expired": 288, "hit_rate": 35.1, "avg_r": 0.126, "total_r": 348.07, "net_avg_r": 0.075, "net_total_r": 209.25, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.21, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0063, "median_net_r": -1.04, "profit_factor": 1.12, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.077 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, "total": 3901, "wins": 1182, "losses": 2295, "expired": 424, "hit_rate": 34.0, "avg_r": 0.089, "total_r": 345.37, "net_avg_r": 0.038, "net_total_r": 146.96, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -4.86, "avg_hold_days": 12.1, "net_r_per_day": 0.0031, "median_net_r": -1.042, "profit_factor": 1.06, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.114 }, { "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, "total": 14588, "wins": 3719, "losses": 9271, "expired": 1598, "hit_rate": 28.6, "avg_r": -0.065, "total_r": -952.08, "net_avg_r": -0.115, "net_total_r": -1676.86, "best_r": 9.24, "worst_r": -15.94, "avg_hold_days": 12.1, "net_r_per_day": -0.0095, "median_net_r": -1.043, "profit_factor": 0.84, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.275 } ], "gate_ablation": [ { "variant": "all_floors", "total": 1086, "wins": 379, "losses": 591, "expired": 116, "hit_rate": 39.1, "avg_r": 0.255, "total_r": 276.76, "net_avg_r": 0.209, "net_total_r": 226.56, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 12.0, "net_r_per_day": 0.0174, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.34, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.631, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.585, "hold_total_r": 684.97 }, { "variant": "no_confidence_floor", "total": 1093, "wins": 380, "losses": 596, "expired": 117, "hit_rate": 38.9, "avg_r": 0.25, "total_r": 273.55, "net_avg_r": 0.204, "net_total_r": 222.99, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 11.9, "net_r_per_day": 0.0171, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.33, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.626, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.58, "hold_total_r": 684.08 }, { "variant": "no_rr_floor", "total": 6849, "wins": 3235, "losses": 3409, "expired": 205, "hit_rate": 48.7, "avg_r": 0.112, "total_r": 770.17, "net_avg_r": 0.061, "net_total_r": 418.96, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -5.16, "avg_hold_days": 7.9, "net_r_per_day": 0.0078, "median_net_r": -0.061, "profit_factor": 1.11, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.061, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.354, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.303, "hold_total_r": 2425.86 }, { "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", "total": 2313, "wins": 770, "losses": 1279, "expired": 264, "hit_rate": 37.6, "avg_r": 0.2, "total_r": 462.35, "net_avg_r": 0.154, "net_total_r": 355.89, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 12.6, "net_r_per_day": 0.0122, "median_net_r": -1.031, "profit_factor": 1.25, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.004, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.583, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.537, "hold_total_r": 1348.89 }, { "variant": "momentum_only", "total": 14696, "wins": 6827, "losses": 7359, "expired": 510, "hit_rate": 48.1, "avg_r": 0.114, "total_r": 1669.64, "net_avg_r": 0.064, "net_total_r": 936.93, "best_r": 8.85, "worst_r": -5.71, "avg_hold_days": 8.4, "net_r_per_day": 0.0076, "median_net_r": -1.013, "profit_factor": 1.11, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055, "hold_days": 30, "hold_avg_r": 0.395, "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, "hold_total_r": 5798.82 } ], "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", "time_exit_sweep": [ { "hold_days": 5, "total": 1086, "wins": 603, "win_rate": 55.5, "avg_r": 0.175, "total_r": 190.16, "net_avg_r": 0.129, "net_total_r": 139.97, "best_r": 5.09, "worst_r": -2.51, "avg_hold_days": 4.5, "net_r_per_day": 0.0285, "median_net_r": 0.115, "profit_factor": 1.36, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002 }, { "hold_days": 10, "total": 1086, "wins": 559, "win_rate": 51.5, "avg_r": 0.357, "total_r": 387.9, "net_avg_r": 0.311, "net_total_r": 337.7, "best_r": 6.73, "worst_r": -2.51, "avg_hold_days": 7.9, "net_r_per_day": 0.0395, "median_net_r": 0.031, "profit_factor": 1.67, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.112 }, { "hold_days": 21, "total": 1086, "wins": 487, "win_rate": 44.8, "avg_r": 0.525, "total_r": 570.33, "net_avg_r": 0.479, "net_total_r": 520.14, "best_r": 9.86, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 13.7, "net_r_per_day": 0.0349, "median_net_r": -1.027, "profit_factor": 1.81, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.191 }, { "hold_days": 30, "total": 1086, "wins": 434, "win_rate": 40.0, "avg_r": 0.631, "total_r": 684.97, "net_avg_r": 0.585, "net_total_r": 634.78, "best_r": 12.87, "worst_r": -3.38, "avg_hold_days": 17.8, "net_r_per_day": 0.0329, "median_net_r": -1.033, "profit_factor": 1.9, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.212 } ], "portfolio_sim": { "params": { "starting_capital": 10000.0, "max_positions": 15, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "hold_days": 30 }, "policies": [ { "policy": "target", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 27052.49, "total_return_pct": 170.5, "cagr_pct": 28.4, "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5, "calmar": 1.26, "sortino": 2.3, "gain_to_pain": 1.54, "profit_factor": 1.52, "sharpe": 1.48, "sharpe_se": 0.501, "psr": 0.9984, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.1234, "return_kurtosis": 4.5853, "trades": 422, "win_rate": 42.4, "avg_trade_pnl": 40.41, "best_trade_r": 8.85, "worst_trade_r": -2.68, "best_trade_pnl": 990.78, "worst_trade_pnl": -515.9, "avg_hold_days": 10.7, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 236, "target": 157, "time": 29 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 9.5 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 5.2 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 47.5 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 50.0 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 6.1 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "policy": "hold", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 47653.95, "total_return_pct": 376.5, "cagr_pct": 47.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8, "calmar": 2.55, "sortino": 3.16, "gain_to_pain": 2.57, "profit_factor": 2.3, "sharpe": 1.96, "sharpe_se": 0.498, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2133, "return_kurtosis": 4.0039, "trades": 303, "win_rate": 38.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 5031.32, "worst_trade_pnl": -516.31, "avg_hold_days": 17.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 178, "time": 125 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 6.7 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.5 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 53.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 61.2 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 27.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 15 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." }, "strategy_variants": { "variants": [ { "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", "ranking": "residual", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 47653.95, "total_return_pct": 376.5, "cagr_pct": 47.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8, "calmar": 2.55, "sortino": 3.16, "gain_to_pain": 2.57, "profit_factor": 2.3, "sharpe": 1.96, "sharpe_se": 0.498, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2133, "return_kurtosis": 4.0039, "trades": 303, "win_rate": 38.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 5031.32, "worst_trade_pnl": -516.31, "avg_hold_days": 17.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 178, "time": 125 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 6.7 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.5 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 53.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 61.2 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 27.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", "ranking": "raw", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 28874.99, "total_return_pct": 188.7, "cagr_pct": 30.3, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.4, "calmar": 1.65, "sortino": 2.15, "gain_to_pain": 1.69, "profit_factor": 1.85, "sharpe": 1.34, "sharpe_se": 0.492, "psr": 0.9969, "n_returns": 1005, "return_skew": 0.5199, "return_kurtosis": 5.3792, "trades": 297, "win_rate": 35.4, "avg_trade_pnl": 63.55, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -4.21, "best_trade_pnl": 2822.98, "worst_trade_pnl": -295.18, "avg_hold_days": 16.7, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 184, "time": 113 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 7.3 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 6.9 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 47.9 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 31.2 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 29.8 } ], "start_date": "2022-06-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", "ranking": "raw", "cutoff": 90.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 90.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 32295.9, "total_return_pct": 223.0, "cagr_pct": 34.2, "max_drawdown_pct": 16.9, "calmar": 2.02, "sortino": 2.64, "gain_to_pain": 2.02, "profit_factor": 2.18, "sharpe": 1.62, "sharpe_se": 0.491, "psr": 0.9995, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.5379, "return_kurtosis": 5.7456, "trades": 217, "win_rate": 36.4, "avg_trade_pnl": 102.75, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.13, "best_trade_pnl": 3301.56, "worst_trade_pnl": -499.25, "avg_hold_days": 16.2, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 135, "time": 82 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 7.6 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 20.6 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 42.6 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 41.6 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 23.3 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", "ranking": "residual", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 15, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 47653.95, "total_return_pct": 376.5, "cagr_pct": 47.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8, "calmar": 2.55, "sortino": 3.16, "gain_to_pain": 2.57, "profit_factor": 2.3, "sharpe": 1.96, "sharpe_se": 0.498, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2133, "return_kurtosis": 4.0039, "trades": 303, "win_rate": 38.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -2.12, "best_trade_pnl": 5031.32, "worst_trade_pnl": -516.31, "avg_hold_days": 17.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 178, "time": 125 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 6.7 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.5 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 53.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 61.2 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 27.0 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 }, { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 50.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 18351.66, "total_return_pct": 83.5, "cagr_pct": 16.6, "max_drawdown_pct": 8.9, "calmar": 1.87, "sortino": 2.66, "gain_to_pain": 2.39, "profit_factor": 2.46, "sharpe": 1.69, "sharpe_se": 0.505, "psr": 0.9996, "n_returns": 990, "return_skew": 0.1745, "return_kurtosis": 7.5675, "trades": 118, "win_rate": 48.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 70.78, "best_trade_r": 8.98, "worst_trade_r": -1.16, "best_trade_pnl": 1091.32, "worst_trade_pnl": -203.91, "avg_hold_days": 19.4, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 60, "time": 58 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 93.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 12.0 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 20.8 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 2.9 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 8.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 21.4 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-13", "end_date": "2026-06-24" }, { "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 }, { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 70.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 13860.93, "total_return_pct": 38.6, "cagr_pct": 8.8, "max_drawdown_pct": 8.4, "calmar": 1.05, "sortino": 2.12, "gain_to_pain": 1.76, "profit_factor": 2.45, "sharpe": 1.31, "sharpe_se": 0.497, "psr": 0.9959, "n_returns": 975, "return_skew": 0.813, "return_kurtosis": 14.619, "trades": 60, "win_rate": 50.0, "avg_trade_pnl": 64.35, "best_trade_r": 8.98, "worst_trade_r": -1.16, "best_trade_pnl": 843.24, "worst_trade_pnl": -129.59, "avg_hold_days": 19.6, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 29, 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"year": 2021, "return_pct": -0.7 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -26.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 83.7 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 57.2 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 25.7 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 20.2 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", "ranking": "high_vol", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 33221.17, "total_return_pct": 232.2, "cagr_pct": 30.5, "max_drawdown_pct": 37.3, "calmar": 0.82, "sortino": 1.65, "gain_to_pain": 1.06, "profit_factor": 1.51, "sharpe": 1.08, "sharpe_se": 0.471, "psr": 0.9892, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.1713, "return_kurtosis": 4.0678, "trades": 475, "win_rate": 32.6, "avg_trade_pnl": 48.89, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -6.58, "best_trade_pnl": 3578.0, "worst_trade_pnl": -1724.97, "avg_hold_days": 16.0, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 304, "time": 171 }, "skipped_book_full": 371, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": -0.7 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -23.4 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 83.7 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 60.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 21.5 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 22.0 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", "ranking": "high_vol", "cutoff": 90.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 90.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 30750.26, "total_return_pct": 207.5, "cagr_pct": 28.3, "max_drawdown_pct": 35.7, "calmar": 0.79, "sortino": 1.56, "gain_to_pain": 0.97, "profit_factor": 1.48, "sharpe": 1.03, "sharpe_se": 0.469, "psr": 0.9857, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.2706, "return_kurtosis": 5.5193, "trades": 427, "win_rate": 32.1, "avg_trade_pnl": 48.6, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -6.58, "best_trade_pnl": 3185.04, "worst_trade_pnl": -1748.5, "avg_hold_days": 16.2, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 274, "time": 153 }, "skipped_book_full": 144, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": -1.3 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -26.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 103.2 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 47.7 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 29.8 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 8.4 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", "ranking": "low_vol", "cutoff": 80.0, "filters": [ { "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", "cutoff": 80.0 } ], "max_positions": 10, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "risk_scale": null, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 11360.88, "total_return_pct": 13.6, "cagr_pct": 2.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 18.9, "calmar": 0.15, "sortino": 0.44, "gain_to_pain": 0.25, "profit_factor": 1.12, "sharpe": 0.3, "sharpe_se": 0.472, "psr": 0.7388, "n_returns": 1130, "return_skew": 0.0925, "return_kurtosis": 7.9942, "trades": 239, "win_rate": 34.3, "avg_trade_pnl": 5.69, "best_trade_r": 8.89, "worst_trade_r": -2.77, "best_trade_pnl": 621.88, "worst_trade_pnl": -195.69, "avg_hold_days": 16.8, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 152, "time": 87 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 56.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2021, "return_pct": 0.3 }, { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 14.9 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": -2.4 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 3.4 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": -10.0 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 8.6 } ], "start_date": "2021-12-28", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." }, "exit_policy_variants": { "variants": [ { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "hold", "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 52815.5, "total_return_pct": 428.2, "cagr_pct": 51.8, "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0, "calmar": 2.36, "sortino": 3.29, "gain_to_pain": 2.39, "profit_factor": 2.5, "sharpe": 2.0, "sharpe_se": 0.494, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.3882, "return_kurtosis": 4.9536, "trades": 305, "win_rate": 38.7, "avg_trade_pnl": 140.38, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.76, "best_trade_pnl": 5144.91, "worst_trade_pnl": -561.89, "avg_hold_days": 17.1, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 180, "time": 125 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 10.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 41.6 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 42.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 75.8 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.6 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "sma50", "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 38710.74, "total_return_pct": 287.1, "cagr_pct": 40.4, "max_drawdown_pct": 24.0, "calmar": 1.68, "sortino": 2.75, "gain_to_pain": 1.9, "profit_factor": 2.18, "sharpe": 1.75, "sharpe_se": 0.502, "psr": 0.9998, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.1135, "return_kurtosis": 4.3283, "trades": 385, "win_rate": 33.8, "avg_trade_pnl": 74.57, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.76, "best_trade_pnl": 4323.49, "worst_trade_pnl": -455.17, "avg_hold_days": 12.3, "exit_reasons": { "sma50": 158, "stop": 131, "time": 96 }, "skipped_book_full": 4, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": -5.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 18.7 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 77.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 66.0 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 17.1 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "low20", "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 54364.58, "total_return_pct": 443.6, "cagr_pct": 52.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.6, "calmar": 2.45, "sortino": 3.35, "gain_to_pain": 2.46, "profit_factor": 2.51, "sharpe": 2.03, "sharpe_se": 0.494, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.3723, "return_kurtosis": 4.9671, "trades": 307, "win_rate": 37.8, "avg_trade_pnl": 144.51, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.76, "best_trade_pnl": 5295.81, "worst_trade_pnl": -578.37, "avg_hold_days": 16.7, "exit_reasons": { "low20": 17, "stop": 177, "time": 113 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 10.4 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 40.3 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 41.3 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 85.1 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 34.3 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "technical40", "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 52815.5, "total_return_pct": 428.2, "cagr_pct": 51.8, "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0, "calmar": 2.36, "sortino": 3.29, "gain_to_pain": 2.39, "profit_factor": 2.5, "sharpe": 2.0, "sharpe_se": 0.494, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.3882, "return_kurtosis": 4.9536, "trades": 305, "win_rate": 38.7, "avg_trade_pnl": 140.38, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.76, "best_trade_pnl": 5144.91, "worst_trade_pnl": -561.89, "avg_hold_days": 17.1, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 180, "time": 125 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 10.2 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 41.6 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 42.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 75.8 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.6 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" }, { "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", "hold_days": 30, "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 50380.47, "total_return_pct": 403.8, "cagr_pct": 50.0, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, "calmar": 2.34, "sortino": 3.3, "gain_to_pain": 2.37, "profit_factor": 2.44, "sharpe": 2.03, "sharpe_se": 0.498, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2471, "return_kurtosis": 4.5224, "trades": 321, "win_rate": 37.4, "avg_trade_pnl": 125.8, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 4977.01, "worst_trade_pnl": -532.7, "avg_hold_days": 15.3, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 146, "time": 78, "trailing_stop": 97 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 8.1 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.0 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 36.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 78.5 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.1 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01" } ], "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." }, "portfolio_monitor": { "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "strategies": [ { "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "production_live_immediate", "label": "Live setup + 3x ATR trail (immediate re-entry)", "description": "Exact live activation, ordering, and Admin exit policy, with only the post-stop gate reset disabled as the comparison baseline.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": "live_immediate", "reentry_policy": "immediate" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail + gate reset", "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "is_production": true, "comparison_arm": "live_gate_reset", "reentry_policy": "gate_reset" } ], "lookbacks": [ { "lookback": "6m", "label": "6 months" }, { "lookback": "1y", "label": "1 year" }, { "lookback": "3y", "label": "3 years" }, { "lookback": "5y", "label": "5 years" }, { "lookback": "all", "label": "All history" } ], "runs": [ { "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": null, "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", "ranking_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", "exit_policy": "hold", "live_exit_mode": null, "reentry_policy": "immediate", "lookback": "6m", "lookback_label": "6 months", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 13158.33, "total_return_pct": 31.6, "cagr_pct": 73.5, "max_drawdown_pct": 6.8, "calmar": 10.81, "sortino": 6.0, "gain_to_pain": 6.23, "profit_factor": 2.9, "sharpe": 3.16, "sharpe_se": 1.345, "psr": 0.9906, "n_returns": 124, "return_skew": 0.7966, "return_kurtosis": 5.2043, "trades": 31, "win_rate": 41.9, "avg_trade_pnl": 101.88, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -1.79, "best_trade_pnl": 1389.22, "worst_trade_pnl": -142.57, "avg_hold_days": 16.8, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 18, "time": 13 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 9.4, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 31.6 } ], "start_date": "2025-12-31", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "equity_curve": [ { "date": "2025-12-31", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-05", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "equity": 10000.0, "return_pct": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-07", "equity": 9990.34, "return_pct": -0.1 }, { "date": "2026-01-08", "equity": 10080.41, "return_pct": 0.8 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "equity": 10127.43, "return_pct": 1.27 }, { "date": "2026-01-12", "equity": 10331.35, "return_pct": 3.31 }, { "date": "2026-01-13", "equity": 10442.28, "return_pct": 4.42 }, { "date": "2026-01-14", "equity": 10473.24, "return_pct": 4.73 }, { "date": "2026-01-15", "equity": 10541.56, "return_pct": 5.42 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "equity": 10352.94, "return_pct": 3.53 }, { "date": "2026-01-20", "equity": 10400.77, "return_pct": 4.01 }, { "date": "2026-01-21", "equity": 10634.54, "return_pct": 6.35 }, { "date": "2026-01-22", "equity": 10760.66, "return_pct": 7.61 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "equity": 10829.45, "return_pct": 8.29 }, { "date": "2026-01-26", "equity": 10863.78, "return_pct": 8.64 }, { "date": "2026-01-27", "equity": 10726.72, "return_pct": 7.27 }, { "date": "2026-01-28", "equity": 10630.33, "return_pct": 6.3 }, { "date": "2026-01-29", "equity": 10579.87, "return_pct": 5.8 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "equity": 10480.93, "return_pct": 4.81 }, { "date": "2026-02-02", "equity": 10548.96, "return_pct": 5.49 }, { "date": "2026-02-03", "equity": 10786.74, "return_pct": 7.87 }, { "date": "2026-02-04", "equity": 10769.34, "return_pct": 7.69 }, { "date": "2026-02-05", "equity": 10763.99, "return_pct": 7.64 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "equity": 10945.01, "return_pct": 9.45 }, { "date": "2026-02-09", "equity": 11000.63, "return_pct": 10.01 }, { "date": "2026-02-10", "equity": 11125.63, "return_pct": 11.26 }, { "date": "2026-02-11", "equity": 11261.89, "return_pct": 12.62 }, { "date": "2026-02-12", "equity": 11022.75, "return_pct": 10.23 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "equity": 11186.58, "return_pct": 11.87 }, { "date": "2026-02-17", "equity": 11121.24, "return_pct": 11.21 }, { "date": "2026-02-18", "equity": 11250.11, "return_pct": 12.5 }, { "date": "2026-02-19", "equity": 11233.8, "return_pct": 12.34 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "equity": 11183.73, "return_pct": 11.84 }, { "date": "2026-02-23", "equity": 11140.11, "return_pct": 11.4 }, { "date": "2026-02-24", "equity": 11289.91, "return_pct": 12.9 }, { "date": "2026-02-25", "equity": 11187.27, "return_pct": 11.87 }, { "date": "2026-02-26", "equity": 11174.05, "return_pct": 11.74 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "equity": 11258.34, "return_pct": 12.58 }, { "date": "2026-03-02", "equity": 11101.36, "return_pct": 11.01 }, { "date": "2026-03-03", "equity": 10941.99, "return_pct": 9.42 }, { "date": "2026-03-04", "equity": 10893.84, "return_pct": 8.94 }, { "date": "2026-03-05", "equity": 10814.01, "return_pct": 8.14 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "equity": 10825.58, "return_pct": 8.26 }, { "date": "2026-03-09", "equity": 10818.29, "return_pct": 8.18 }, { "date": "2026-03-10", "equity": 10780.23, "return_pct": 7.8 }, { "date": "2026-03-11", "equity": 10816.7, "return_pct": 8.17 }, { "date": "2026-03-12", "equity": 10867.59, "return_pct": 8.68 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "equity": 10842.97, "return_pct": 8.43 }, { "date": "2026-03-16", "equity": 10822.73, "return_pct": 8.23 }, { "date": "2026-03-17", "equity": 10894.72, "return_pct": 8.95 }, { "date": "2026-03-18", "equity": 10825.57, "return_pct": 8.26 }, { "date": "2026-03-19", "equity": 10774.0, "return_pct": 7.74 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "equity": 10629.15, "return_pct": 6.29 }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "equity": 10783.63, "return_pct": 7.84 }, { "date": "2026-03-24", "equity": 10841.03, "return_pct": 8.41 }, { "date": "2026-03-25", "equity": 10849.96, "return_pct": 8.5 }, { "date": "2026-03-26", "equity": 10803.24, "return_pct": 8.03 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "equity": 10777.43, "return_pct": 7.77 }, { "date": "2026-03-30", "equity": 10734.03, "return_pct": 7.34 }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "equity": 10804.49, "return_pct": 8.04 }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "equity": 10803.85, "return_pct": 8.04 }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "equity": 10852.53, "return_pct": 8.53 }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "equity": 10826.26, "return_pct": 8.26 }, { "date": "2026-04-07", "equity": 10805.89, "return_pct": 8.06 }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "equity": 11196.42, "return_pct": 11.96 }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "equity": 11295.33, "return_pct": 12.95 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "equity": 11362.99, "return_pct": 13.63 }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "equity": 11386.61, "return_pct": 13.87 }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "equity": 11588.18, "return_pct": 15.88 }, { "date": "2026-04-15", "equity": 11453.6, "return_pct": 14.54 }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "equity": 11576.0, "return_pct": 15.76 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "equity": 11760.49, "return_pct": 17.6 }, { "date": "2026-04-20", "equity": 11721.73, "return_pct": 17.22 }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "equity": 11710.94, "return_pct": 17.11 }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "equity": 11924.81, "return_pct": 19.25 }, { "date": "2026-04-23", "equity": 11975.78, "return_pct": 19.76 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "equity": 12323.93, "return_pct": 23.24 }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "equity": 12343.08, "return_pct": 23.43 }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "equity": 12141.75, "return_pct": 21.42 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "equity": 12236.87, "return_pct": 22.37 }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "equity": 12706.91, "return_pct": 27.07 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "equity": 12703.0, "return_pct": 27.03 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "equity": 12578.68, "return_pct": 25.79 }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "equity": 12826.66, "return_pct": 28.27 }, { "date": "2026-05-06", "equity": 13428.85, "return_pct": 34.29 }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "equity": 13209.56, "return_pct": 32.1 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "equity": 13550.58, "return_pct": 35.51 }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "equity": 13670.78, "return_pct": 36.71 }, { "date": "2026-05-12", "equity": 13622.28, "return_pct": 36.22 }, { "date": "2026-05-13", "equity": 13744.55, "return_pct": 37.45 }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "equity": 13774.44, "return_pct": 37.74 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "equity": 13397.16, "return_pct": 33.97 }, { "date": "2026-05-18", "equity": 13257.94, "return_pct": 32.58 }, { "date": "2026-05-19", "equity": 13236.82, "return_pct": 32.37 }, { "date": "2026-05-20", "equity": 12926.28, "return_pct": 29.26 }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "equity": 12884.6, "return_pct": 28.85 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "equity": 12977.82, "return_pct": 29.78 }, { "date": "2026-05-26", "equity": 12838.68, "return_pct": 28.39 }, { "date": "2026-05-27", "equity": 12898.68, "return_pct": 28.99 }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "equity": 12905.57, "return_pct": 29.06 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "equity": 12892.27, "return_pct": 28.92 }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "equity": 12926.59, "return_pct": 29.27 }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "equity": 12872.22, "return_pct": 28.72 }, { "date": 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"equity": 19354.21, "return_pct": 93.54 }, { "date": "2026-06-15", "equity": 19695.5, "return_pct": 96.95 }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "equity": 19578.08, "return_pct": 95.78 }, { "date": "2026-06-17", "equity": 19333.59, "return_pct": 93.34 }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "equity": 19484.41, "return_pct": 94.84 }, { "date": "2026-06-22", "equity": 19423.09, "return_pct": 94.23 }, { "date": "2026-06-23", "equity": 19141.03, "return_pct": 91.41 }, { "date": "2026-06-24", "equity": 19132.16, "return_pct": 91.32 }, { "date": "2026-06-25", "equity": 19159.82, "return_pct": 91.6 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "equity": 19021.27, "return_pct": 90.21 }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "equity": 19334.64, "return_pct": 93.35 }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "equity": 19485.19, "return_pct": 94.85 }, { "date": "2026-07-01", "equity": 19458.84, "return_pct": 94.59 } ], "post_stop_events": 149, "post_stop_reentries": 77, "post_stop_states_open_at_end": 72, "reentry_events": [ { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 35, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-07-13", "reentry_date": "2022-08-31" }, { "symbol": "MAR", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-08-30", "reentry_date": "2022-09-08" }, { "symbol": "STLD", "wait_sessions": 24, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-01", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-06", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "SLB", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-23", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "CVX", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-19", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "ABBV", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-30", "reentry_date": "2022-10-20" }, { "symbol": "ANET", "wait_sessions": 46, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-08-30", "reentry_date": "2022-11-03" }, { "symbol": "MOS", "wait_sessions": 49, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-16", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "LVS", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "NUE", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-20", "reentry_date": "2022-12-02" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-19", "reentry_date": "2023-01-03" }, { "symbol": "CTRA", "wait_sessions": 86, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-07", "reentry_date": "2023-01-10" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 39, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-01-04", "reentry_date": "2023-03-02" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-13", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "TT", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-15", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 38, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-03", "reentry_date": "2023-03-30" }, { "symbol": "BA", "wait_sessions": 10, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-14", "reentry_date": "2023-04-28" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 58, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-27", "reentry_date": "2023-06-20" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-22", "reentry_date": "2023-07-12" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-02" }, { "symbol": "HAL", "wait_sessions": 178, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-11-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-09" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 115, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-09", "reentry_date": "2023-08-23" }, { "symbol": "TTD", "wait_sessions": 20, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-09", "reentry_date": "2023-09-07" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 47, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 17, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-09-19", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-16", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "AMD", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-17", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-13", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-12-01" }, { "symbol": "NFLX", "wait_sessions": 79, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-24", "reentry_date": "2023-12-15" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-12-11", "reentry_date": "2024-01-02" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-03-11", "reentry_date": "2024-04-05" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-04-26" }, { "symbol": "TPL", "wait_sessions": 273, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-05-17" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 109, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2024-06-10" }, { "symbol": "TPL", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-04", "reentry_date": "2024-06-17" }, { "symbol": "DECK", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-02", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 421, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-08", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "IP", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-05", "reentry_date": "2024-08-21" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 29, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2024-09-05" }, { "symbol": "VST", "wait_sessions": 431, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-30", "reentry_date": "2024-09-19" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 75, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-17", "reentry_date": "2024-10-03" }, { "symbol": "PODD", "wait_sessions": 411, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-22", "reentry_date": "2024-10-10" }, { "symbol": "RMD", "wait_sessions": 26, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-09-18", "reentry_date": "2024-10-24" }, { "symbol": "IP", "wait_sessions": 46, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-09-11", "reentry_date": "2024-11-14" }, { "symbol": "EBAY", "wait_sessions": 16, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-27", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "GM", "wait_sessions": 29, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-09", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "ZBRA", "wait_sessions": 44, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-11-15", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 69, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-11-01", "reentry_date": "2025-02-13" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 420, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-19", "reentry_date": "2025-03-21" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 36, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-02-20", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-03-31", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "IBKR", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-04-16", "reentry_date": "2025-05-19" }, { "symbol": "CIEN", "wait_sessions": 23, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-05", "reentry_date": "2025-07-10" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 34, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-18", "reentry_date": "2025-08-07" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 619, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-24", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "UAL", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-21" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "wait_sessions": 419, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2025-09-05" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 284, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2025-09-12" }, { "symbol": "STX", "wait_sessions": 332, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-21", "reentry_date": "2025-10-17" }, { "symbol": "FSLR", "wait_sessions": 597, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-08", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 56, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-20", "reentry_date": "2025-11-07" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 15, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-24", "reentry_date": "2025-11-14" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 7, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-19", "reentry_date": "2025-12-01" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 679, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-24", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "F", "wait_sessions": 812, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-13", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "CVS", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-03", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-17", "reentry_date": "2026-01-14" }, { "symbol": "DLTR", "wait_sessions": 40, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-22", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 755, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-15", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "ADM", "wait_sessions": 839, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-14", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 157, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-19", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "GM", "wait_sessions": 307, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-01-28", "reentry_date": "2026-04-20" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-05-06", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 53, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-03", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" } ] } ], "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. The structural overlay appears only in its explicit research arm and changes ordering, not production qualification. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps. The production row applies the same post-initial-stop gate-reset rule as the live setup list." }, "production_cadence_comparison": { "entry_cadence": "weekly", "lookback": "all", "arms": [ { "strategy": "production_live_immediate", "label": "Live setup + 3x ATR trail (immediate re-entry)", "description": "Exact live activation, ordering, and Admin exit policy, with only the post-stop gate reset disabled as the comparison baseline.", "is_production": false, "comparison_arm": "live_immediate", "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "ranking_key": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20_score", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "live_exit_mode": "atr_trailing", "reentry_policy": "immediate", "lookback": "all", "lookback_label": "All history", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 50380.47, "total_return_pct": 403.8, "cagr_pct": 50.0, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, "calmar": 2.34, "sortino": 3.3, "gain_to_pain": 2.37, "profit_factor": 2.44, "sharpe": 2.03, "sharpe_se": 0.498, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2471, "return_kurtosis": 4.5224, "trades": 321, "win_rate": 37.4, "avg_trade_pnl": 125.8, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 4977.01, "worst_trade_pnl": -532.7, "avg_hold_days": 15.3, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 146, "time": 78, "trailing_stop": 97 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 8.1 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.0 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 36.1 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 78.5 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 35.1 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "arm": "prod_live_setup_weekly", "entry_cadence": "weekly" }, { "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail + gate reset", "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "is_production": true, "comparison_arm": "live_gate_reset", "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", "ranking_key": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20_score", "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", "live_exit_mode": "atr_trailing", "reentry_policy": "gate_reset", "lookback": "all", "lookback_label": "All history", "starting_capital": 10000.0, "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, "fill_mode": "close", "final_equity": 52459.31, "total_return_pct": 424.6, "cagr_pct": 51.6, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, "calmar": 2.41, "sortino": 3.42, "gain_to_pain": 2.47, "profit_factor": 2.48, "sharpe": 2.09, "sharpe_se": 0.497, "psr": 1.0, "n_returns": 1000, "return_skew": 0.2686, "return_kurtosis": 4.5653, "trades": 322, "win_rate": 37.0, "avg_trade_pnl": 131.86, "best_trade_r": 12.87, "worst_trade_r": -3.26, "best_trade_pnl": 5182.37, "worst_trade_pnl": -554.68, "avg_hold_days": 15.2, "exit_reasons": { "stop": 149, "time": 79, "trailing_stop": 94 }, "skipped_book_full": 0, "spy_return_pct": 94.6, "yearly_returns": [ { "year": 2022, "return_pct": 8.1 }, { "year": 2023, "return_pct": 42.0 }, { "year": 2024, "return_pct": 36.4 }, { "year": 2025, "return_pct": 80.2 }, { "year": 2026, "return_pct": 39.2 } ], "start_date": "2022-07-06", "end_date": "2026-07-01", "post_stop_events": 149, "post_stop_reentries": 77, "post_stop_states_open_at_end": 72, "reentry_events": [ { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 35, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-07-13", "reentry_date": "2022-08-31" }, { "symbol": "MAR", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-08-30", "reentry_date": "2022-09-08" }, { "symbol": "STLD", "wait_sessions": 24, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-01", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-06", "reentry_date": "2022-10-06" }, { "symbol": "SLB", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-23", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "CVX", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-19", "reentry_date": "2022-10-13" }, { "symbol": "ABBV", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-30", "reentry_date": "2022-10-20" }, { "symbol": "ANET", "wait_sessions": 46, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-08-30", "reentry_date": "2022-11-03" }, { "symbol": "MOS", "wait_sessions": 49, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-16", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "LVS", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 33, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-10", "reentry_date": "2022-11-25" }, { "symbol": "NUE", "wait_sessions": 30, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-20", "reentry_date": "2022-12-02" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-19", "reentry_date": "2023-01-03" }, { "symbol": "CTRA", "wait_sessions": 86, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-07", "reentry_date": "2023-01-10" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 39, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-01-04", "reentry_date": "2023-03-02" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-13", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "TT", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-15", "reentry_date": "2023-03-23" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 38, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-03", "reentry_date": "2023-03-30" }, { "symbol": "BA", "wait_sessions": 10, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-14", "reentry_date": "2023-04-28" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 58, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-27", "reentry_date": "2023-06-20" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-22", "reentry_date": "2023-07-12" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-02" }, { "symbol": "HAL", "wait_sessions": 178, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-11-21", "reentry_date": "2023-08-09" }, { "symbol": "BKR", "wait_sessions": 115, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-09", "reentry_date": "2023-08-23" }, { "symbol": "TTD", "wait_sessions": 20, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-09", "reentry_date": "2023-09-07" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 47, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 17, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-09-19", "reentry_date": "2023-10-12" }, { "symbol": "PLTR", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-16", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "AMD", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-17", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "DASH", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-10-13", "reentry_date": "2023-11-02" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 82, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-07", "reentry_date": "2023-12-01" }, { "symbol": "NFLX", "wait_sessions": 79, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-08-24", "reentry_date": "2023-12-15" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-12-11", "reentry_date": "2024-01-02" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-03-11", "reentry_date": "2024-04-05" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 6, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-04-26" }, { "symbol": "TPL", "wait_sessions": 273, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-04-18", "reentry_date": "2024-05-17" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 109, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2024-06-10" }, { "symbol": "TPL", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-04", "reentry_date": "2024-06-17" }, { "symbol": "DECK", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-02", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "PANW", "wait_sessions": 421, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-08", "reentry_date": "2024-08-14" }, { "symbol": "IP", "wait_sessions": 12, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-08-05", "reentry_date": "2024-08-21" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 29, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2024-09-05" }, { "symbol": "VST", "wait_sessions": 431, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-12-30", "reentry_date": "2024-09-19" }, { "symbol": "MSTR", "wait_sessions": 75, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-17", "reentry_date": "2024-10-03" }, { "symbol": "PODD", "wait_sessions": 411, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-22", "reentry_date": "2024-10-10" }, { "symbol": "RMD", "wait_sessions": 26, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-09-18", "reentry_date": "2024-10-24" }, { "symbol": "IP", "wait_sessions": 46, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-09-11", "reentry_date": "2024-11-14" }, { "symbol": "EBAY", "wait_sessions": 16, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-27", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "GM", "wait_sessions": 29, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-12-09", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "ZBRA", "wait_sessions": 44, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-11-15", "reentry_date": "2025-01-23" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 69, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-11-01", "reentry_date": "2025-02-13" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 420, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-07-19", "reentry_date": "2025-03-21" }, { "symbol": "CVNA", "wait_sessions": 36, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-02-20", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "AXON", "wait_sessions": 9, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-03-31", "reentry_date": "2025-04-11" }, { "symbol": "IBKR", "wait_sessions": 22, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-04-16", "reentry_date": "2025-05-19" }, { "symbol": "CIEN", "wait_sessions": 23, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-05", "reentry_date": "2025-07-10" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 34, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-06-18", "reentry_date": "2025-08-07" }, { "symbol": "WYNN", "wait_sessions": 619, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-24", "reentry_date": "2025-08-14" }, { "symbol": "UAL", "wait_sessions": 14, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-01", "reentry_date": "2025-08-21" }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "wait_sessions": 419, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-01-03", "reentry_date": "2025-09-05" }, { "symbol": "COIN", "wait_sessions": 284, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-07-25", "reentry_date": "2025-09-12" }, { "symbol": "STX", "wait_sessions": 332, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2024-06-21", "reentry_date": "2025-10-17" }, { "symbol": "FSLR", "wait_sessions": 597, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-06-08", "reentry_date": "2025-10-24" }, { "symbol": "APP", "wait_sessions": 56, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-20", "reentry_date": "2025-11-07" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 15, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-10-24", "reentry_date": "2025-11-14" }, { "symbol": "DG", "wait_sessions": 7, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-11-19", "reentry_date": "2025-12-01" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 679, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-03-24", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "F", "wait_sessions": 812, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-09-13", "reentry_date": "2025-12-08" }, { "symbol": "CVS", "wait_sessions": 13, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-03", "reentry_date": "2025-12-22" }, { "symbol": "MPWR", "wait_sessions": 18, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-17", "reentry_date": "2026-01-14" }, { "symbol": "DLTR", "wait_sessions": 40, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-12-22", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 755, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2023-02-15", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "ADM", "wait_sessions": 839, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2022-10-14", "reentry_date": "2026-02-20" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "wait_sessions": 157, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-08-19", "reentry_date": "2026-04-06" }, { "symbol": "GM", "wait_sessions": 307, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2025-01-28", "reentry_date": "2026-04-20" }, { "symbol": "OXY", "wait_sessions": 8, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-05-06", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" }, { "symbol": "BIIB", "wait_sessions": 53, "reason": "gate_failed_then_requalified", "stop_date": "2026-03-03", "reentry_date": "2026-05-18" } ], "arm": "gate_reset_weekly", "entry_cadence": "weekly" } ], "note": "Both arms use the exact same live gate, ordering, Admin exit policy, fees, and candidate cadence. Only the post-stop gate-reset rule changes." }, "holdout": null, "min_rr_sweep": null, "target_model_diagnostics": { "target_model": "production_gtl", "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)", "candidate_count": 202765, "primary_source_counts": { "pivot_point": 196290, "range_grid": 180036 }, "primary_round_only": 0, "primary_strength_100": 138596, "avg_primary_strength": 80.109, "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.293, "avg_primary_rejection_count": 41.908, "avg_raw_level_count": 53.204, "avg_gate_level_count": 53.204 }, "signal_eval": [ { "signal": "vol_6m", "weeks": 39, "avg_cross_section": 498.2, "mean_ic": 0.0609, "ic_t_stat": 1.48, "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 497.7, "mean_ic": 0.0552, "ic_t_stat": 1.98, "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_12_1", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 497.7, "mean_ic": 0.0531, "ic_t_stat": 1.61, "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "trend_200", "weeks": 37, "avg_cross_section": 497.9, "mean_ic": 0.0161, "ic_t_stat": 0.44, "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "reversal_1m", "weeks": 43, "avg_cross_section": 498.7, "mean_ic": 0.0059, "ic_t_stat": 0.22, "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_6_1", "weeks": 39, "avg_cross_section": 498.2, "mean_ic": 0.0051, "ic_t_stat": 0.21, "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "mom_3_1", "weeks": 42, "avg_cross_section": 498.5, "mean_ic": -0.0064, "ic_t_stat": -0.25, "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "high_52w", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 497.7, "mean_ic": -0.0086, "ic_t_stat": -0.26, "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, "reliable": true }, { "signal": "fip_id", "weeks": 35, "avg_cross_section": 497.7, "mean_ic": -0.045, "ic_t_stat": -2.91, "ic_positive_pct": 25.7, "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0168, "reliable": true } ], "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", "recommendation": { "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit, 30-trading-day max hold, and re-entry only after the gate fails and later qualifies again.", "items": [ { "topic": "production", "text": "Production monitor (All history): +51.6% CAGR, Sharpe 2.09, max drawdown -21.4%." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)." }, { "topic": "gate", "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." }, { "topic": "cutoff", "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 497 setups)." }, { "topic": "benchmark", "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +330.0 points (+424.6% vs +94.6%)." }, { "topic": "robustness", "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.05R net/trade gate-level grading, not the production ATR-trail book) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." } ], "basis_lookback": "all", "basis_lookback_label": "All history", "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." }, "research_recommendation": { "items": [ { "topic": "capacity_15", "candidate": false, "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.96 vs 1.96, CAGR +47.9% vs +47.9%, skipped 0 vs 0." }, { "topic": "cutoff_90", "candidate": false, "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.62 vs 1.96, drawdown 16.9% vs 18.8%, CAGR +34.2% vs +47.9%." }, { "topic": "low_vol_overlay", "candidate": false, "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.74 vs 1.96, drawdown 14.7% vs 18.8%, CAGR +35.6% vs +47.9%." }, { "topic": "high_vol_overlay", "candidate": false, "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.03 vs 1.96, drawdown 19.4% vs 18.8%, CAGR +52.5% vs +47.9%." } ], "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." } }