{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T06:52:56.759543+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 129469,
  "qualified": 291,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_legacy_primary",
    "range_factor_lookback": 504,
    "range_factor_min_log": 1.0,
    "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183,
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 291,
    "wins": 120,
    "losses": 151,
    "expired": 20,
    "hit_rate": 44.3,
    "avg_r": 0.335,
    "total_r": 97.39,
    "net_avg_r": 0.292,
    "net_total_r": 84.86,
    "best_r": 3.09,
    "worst_r": -6.35,
    "avg_hold_days": 10.9,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0268,
    "median_net_r": -1.021,
    "profit_factor": 1.46,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.158
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 129469,
    "wins": 51464,
    "losses": 73813,
    "expired": 4192,
    "hit_rate": 41.1,
    "avg_r": -0.048,
    "total_r": -6253.55,
    "net_avg_r": -0.103,
    "net_total_r": -13308.62,
    "best_r": 7.7,
    "worst_r": -8.6,
    "avg_hold_days": 8.3,
    "net_r_per_day": -0.0124,
    "median_net_r": -1.037,
    "profit_factor": 0.84,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.23
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 120,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 44.3,
      "avg_r": 0.335,
      "total_r": 97.39,
      "net_avg_r": 0.292,
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      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.46,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.158
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    "short": {
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      "losses": 0,
      "expired": 0,
      "hit_rate": null,
      "avg_r": null,
      "total_r": null,
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      "net_r_per_day": null,
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      "profit_factor": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
      "total": 226,
      "wins": 90,
      "losses": 122,
      "expired": 14,
      "hit_rate": 42.5,
      "avg_r": 0.273,
      "total_r": 61.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.231,
      "net_total_r": 52.14,
      "best_r": 2.89,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 10.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0214,
      "median_net_r": -1.028,
      "profit_factor": 1.35,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.095
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 120,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 44.3,
      "avg_r": 0.335,
      "total_r": 97.39,
      "net_avg_r": 0.292,
      "net_total_r": 84.86,
      "best_r": 3.09,
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    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 321,
      "wins": 127,
      "losses": 169,
      "expired": 25,
      "hit_rate": 42.9,
      "avg_r": 0.297,
      "total_r": 95.37,
      "net_avg_r": 0.254,
      "net_total_r": 81.61,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 10.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0234,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.4,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.116
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 351,
      "wins": 135,
      "losses": 187,
      "expired": 29,
      "hit_rate": 41.9,
      "avg_r": 0.271,
      "total_r": 95.22,
      "net_avg_r": 0.229,
      "net_total_r": 80.28,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 10.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0212,
      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.36,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.094
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 383,
      "wins": 144,
      "losses": 208,
      "expired": 31,
      "hit_rate": 40.9,
      "avg_r": 0.236,
      "total_r": 90.35,
      "net_avg_r": 0.194,
      "net_total_r": 74.22,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 10.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0179,
      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.3,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.055
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 848,
      "wins": 279,
      "losses": 499,
      "expired": 70,
      "hit_rate": 35.9,
      "avg_r": 0.131,
      "total_r": 111.04,
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      "net_total_r": 78.47,
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      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.14,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.065
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 120,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 44.3,
      "avg_r": 0.335,
      "total_r": 97.39,
      "net_avg_r": 0.292,
      "net_total_r": 84.86,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 10.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0268,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.46,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.158,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.803,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.76,
      "hold_total_r": 233.79
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 1336,
      "wins": 403,
      "losses": 818,
      "expired": 115,
      "hit_rate": 33.0,
      "avg_r": 0.044,
      "total_r": 59.12,
      "net_avg_r": -0.006,
      "net_total_r": -7.82,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.7,
      "net_r_per_day": -0.0005,
      "median_net_r": -1.042,
      "profit_factor": 0.99,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.154,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.311,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.261,
      "hold_total_r": 415.64
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 5444,
      "wins": 2270,
      "losses": 2975,
      "expired": 199,
      "hit_rate": 43.3,
      "avg_r": 0.069,
      "total_r": 378.29,
      "net_avg_r": 0.015,
      "net_total_r": 83.55,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0018,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.03,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.111,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.357,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.303,
      "hold_total_r": 1945.92
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 2189,
      "wins": 690,
      "losses": 1291,
      "expired": 208,
      "hit_rate": 34.8,
      "avg_r": 0.098,
      "total_r": 215.16,
      "net_avg_r": 0.049,
      "net_total_r": 108.33,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0041,
      "median_net_r": -1.038,
      "profit_factor": 1.07,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.094,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.408,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.359,
      "hold_total_r": 892.68
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 9250,
      "wins": 3875,
      "losses": 4987,
      "expired": 388,
      "hit_rate": 43.7,
      "avg_r": 0.09,
      "total_r": 832.07,
      "net_avg_r": 0.038,
      "net_total_r": 349.62,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 9.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0041,
      "median_net_r": -1.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.06,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.085,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.405,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.353,
      "hold_total_r": 3744.64
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 162,
      "win_rate": 55.7,
      "avg_r": 0.153,
      "total_r": 44.56,
      "net_avg_r": 0.11,
      "net_total_r": 32.03,
      "best_r": 5.65,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0247,
      "median_net_r": 0.096,
      "profit_factor": 1.28,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.044
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 154,
      "win_rate": 52.9,
      "avg_r": 0.392,
      "total_r": 114.01,
      "net_avg_r": 0.349,
      "net_total_r": 101.48,
      "best_r": 8.86,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0447,
      "median_net_r": 0.101,
      "profit_factor": 1.65,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.096
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 127,
      "win_rate": 43.6,
      "avg_r": 0.641,
      "total_r": 186.47,
      "net_avg_r": 0.598,
      "net_total_r": 173.93,
      "best_r": 11.71,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0437,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.9,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.237
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 291,
      "wins": 111,
      "win_rate": 38.1,
      "avg_r": 0.803,
      "total_r": 233.79,
      "net_avg_r": 0.76,
      "net_total_r": 221.25,
      "best_r": 11.89,
      "worst_r": -6.35,
      "avg_hold_days": 17.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0429,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 2.06,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.314
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13425.6,
        "total_return_pct": 34.3,
        "cagr_pct": 15.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8,
        "sharpe": 0.99,
        "trades": 142,
        "win_rate": 43.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 24.12,
        "best_trade_r": 2.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -6.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 311.4,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -625.44,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 76,
          "target": 57,
          "time": 9
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -2.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 17.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14932.37,
        "total_return_pct": 49.3,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.08,
        "trades": 113,
        "win_rate": 33.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.65,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 849.59,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -304.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14932.37,
        "total_return_pct": 49.3,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.08,
        "trades": 113,
        "win_rate": 33.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.65,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 849.59,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -304.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13977.32,
        "total_return_pct": 39.8,
        "cagr_pct": 18.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.0,
        "sharpe": 0.93,
        "trades": 107,
        "win_rate": 31.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 37.17,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 889.59,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -275.07,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 71,
          "time": 36
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 25.1,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 22.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14177.99,
        "total_return_pct": 41.8,
        "cagr_pct": 18.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.1,
        "sharpe": 1.0,
        "trades": 92,
        "win_rate": 32.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 45.41,
        "best_trade_r": 10.83,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 992.97,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -273.24,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 60,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 25.1,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 20.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14932.37,
        "total_return_pct": 49.3,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.08,
        "trades": 113,
        "win_rate": 33.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.65,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 849.59,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -304.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9159.83,
        "total_return_pct": -8.4,
        "cagr_pct": -21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7,
        "sharpe": -3.06,
        "trades": 7,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": -120.02,
        "best_trade_r": -1.0,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -412.45,
        "avg_hold_days": 5.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 7
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 5.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -8.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-03-21",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9935.46,
        "total_return_pct": -0.6,
        "cagr_pct": null,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 1.2,
        "sharpe": -1.74,
        "trades": 1,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": -64.54,
        "best_trade_r": -1.0,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.0,
        "best_trade_pnl": -64.54,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -64.54,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 1
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 3.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-05-17",
        "end_date": "2024-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13965.4,
        "total_return_pct": 39.7,
        "cagr_pct": 17.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 0.95,
        "trades": 115,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 34.48,
        "best_trade_r": 10.83,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -500.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 71,
          "time": 44
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15242.12,
        "total_return_pct": 52.4,
        "cagr_pct": 22.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.12,
        "trades": 113,
        "win_rate": 34.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.39,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -304.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 71,
          "time": 42
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16218.41,
        "total_return_pct": 62.2,
        "cagr_pct": 26.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.2,
        "sharpe": 1.25,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 35.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 58.66,
        "best_trade_r": 8.91,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 928.51,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -311.08,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 66,
          "time": 40
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15259.46,
        "total_return_pct": 52.6,
        "cagr_pct": 22.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.09,
        "trades": 118,
        "win_rate": 32.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 44.57,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1069.15,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -303.89,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 77,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15644.97,
        "total_return_pct": 56.4,
        "cagr_pct": 24.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.15,
        "trades": 117,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 48.25,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1087.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -309.22,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 76,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15131.3,
        "total_return_pct": 51.3,
        "cagr_pct": 22.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.07,
        "trades": 114,
        "win_rate": 35.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 45.01,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1055.74,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -300.15,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 72,
          "time": 42
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 33.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15939.76,
        "total_return_pct": 59.4,
        "cagr_pct": 25.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.19,
        "trades": 111,
        "win_rate": 35.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 53.51,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1089.51,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -312.81,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 70,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13112.79,
        "total_return_pct": 31.1,
        "cagr_pct": 11.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 29.5,
        "sharpe": 0.54,
        "trades": 210,
        "win_rate": 31.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 14.82,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.62,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1042.3,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -162.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 140,
          "time": 70
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 5,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -27.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 91.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -5.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13802.59,
        "total_return_pct": 38.0,
        "cagr_pct": 14.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 29.5,
        "sharpe": 0.61,
        "trades": 205,
        "win_rate": 32.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 18.55,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.62,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1083.27,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -162.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 133,
          "time": 72
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 3,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -27.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 98.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -3.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14949.49,
        "total_return_pct": 49.5,
        "cagr_pct": 18.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 27.5,
        "sharpe": 0.74,
        "trades": 189,
        "win_rate": 33.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 26.19,
        "best_trade_r": 10.01,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.49,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1201.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -366.71,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 120,
          "time": 69
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -25.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 117.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -7.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15644.97,
        "total_return_pct": 56.4,
        "cagr_pct": 24.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.15,
        "trades": 117,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 48.25,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1087.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -309.22,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 76,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 18415.08,
        "total_return_pct": 84.2,
        "cagr_pct": 34.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.8,
        "sharpe": 1.6,
        "trades": 124,
        "win_rate": 34.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 67.86,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.26,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1226.36,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -214.68,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 34,
          "stop": 52,
          "time": 38
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 53.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 27.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15751.42,
        "total_return_pct": 57.5,
        "cagr_pct": 24.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.8,
        "sharpe": 1.17,
        "trades": 117,
        "win_rate": 31.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 49.16,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1093.72,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -308.64,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 5,
          "stop": 74,
          "time": 38
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 36.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15644.97,
        "total_return_pct": 56.4,
        "cagr_pct": 24.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.0,
        "sharpe": 1.15,
        "trades": 117,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 48.25,
        "best_trade_r": 11.76,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1087.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -309.22,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 76,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 37.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17540.22,
        "total_return_pct": 75.4,
        "cagr_pct": 31.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.4,
        "sharpe": 1.46,
        "trades": 115,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 65.57,
        "best_trade_r": 10.83,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1169.03,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -311.95,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 53,
          "time": 27,
          "trailing_stop": 35
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
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        },
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          {
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        ]
      },
      {
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
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            "date": "2021-10-29",
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            "date": "2021-11-01",
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-04",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-05",
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            "date": "2021-11-08",
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            "date": "2021-11-11",
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            "date": "2021-11-12",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-16",
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            "date": "2021-11-17",
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            "date": "2021-11-18",
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            "date": "2021-11-23",
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            "date": "2021-11-24",
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            "date": "2021-11-26",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
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            "date": "2023-01-10",
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            "date": "2024-07-05",
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            "date": "2024-07-08",
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            "equity": 14079.59,
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            "equity": 14218.91,
            "return_pct": 42.19
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            "date": "2024-07-11",
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-12",
            "equity": 14185.22,
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-15",
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            "date": "2024-07-16",
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-18",
            "equity": 13999.54,
            "return_pct": 40.0
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-19",
            "equity": 13906.58,
            "return_pct": 39.07
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-22",
            "equity": 14049.95,
            "return_pct": 40.5
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-23",
            "equity": 14027.91,
            "return_pct": 40.28
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-24",
            "equity": 13710.01,
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          {
            "date": "2024-07-25",
            "equity": 13638.57,
            "return_pct": 36.39
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-26",
            "equity": 13791.32,
            "return_pct": 37.91
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-29",
            "equity": 13799.43,
            "return_pct": 37.99
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-30",
            "equity": 13729.51,
            "return_pct": 37.3
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-07-31",
            "equity": 13952.68,
            "return_pct": 39.53
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-08-01",
            "equity": 13755.1,
            "return_pct": 37.55
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-08-02",
            "equity": 13499.0,
            "return_pct": 34.99
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-08-05",
            "equity": 13105.86,
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          },
          {
            "date": "2024-08-06",
            "equity": 13226.69,
            "return_pct": 32.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2024-08-07",
            "equity": 13138.28,
            "return_pct": 31.38
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
    "variant": "rewrite_range504_legacy_primary",
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    {
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      "symbol": "COP",
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    {
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      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.054608,
      "strategy_rank": 70.900427,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 35.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.474386,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.607027,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.497156,
      "strategy_rank": 96.477294,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 50.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 84.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.184049,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.267579,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +31.5% CAGR, Sharpe 1.46, max drawdown -18.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.76R net/trade vs +0.29R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +21.6% vs +15.4% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.50R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.46R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.40R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.29R over 291 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +17.9 points (+49.3% vs +31.4%), max drawdown \u221218.0%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.31R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.08 vs 1.08, CAGR +21.6% vs +21.6%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.00 vs 1.08, drawdown 16.1% vs 18.0%, CAGR +18.9% vs +21.6%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 0.95 vs 1.08, drawdown 18.0% vs 18.0%, CAGR +17.7% vs +21.6%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.25 vs 1.08, drawdown 16.2% vs 18.0%, CAGR +26.6% vs +21.6%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}