{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T07:10:45.033408+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 119258,
  "qualified": 297,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_structural_primary2",
    "range_factor_lookback": 504,
    "range_factor_min_log": 1.0,
    "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183,
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 297,
    "wins": 118,
    "losses": 159,
    "expired": 20,
    "hit_rate": 42.6,
    "avg_r": 0.415,
    "total_r": 123.23,
    "net_avg_r": 0.379,
    "net_total_r": 112.63,
    "best_r": 3.51,
    "worst_r": -3.12,
    "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0319,
    "median_net_r": -1.021,
    "profit_factor": 1.64,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.242
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 119258,
    "wins": 48794,
    "losses": 66247,
    "expired": 4217,
    "hit_rate": 42.4,
    "avg_r": -0.042,
    "total_r": -4996.25,
    "net_avg_r": -0.096,
    "net_total_r": -11501.09,
    "best_r": 7.7,
    "worst_r": -8.6,
    "avg_hold_days": 8.1,
    "net_r_per_day": -0.0118,
    "median_net_r": -1.035,
    "profit_factor": 0.84,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.232
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 159,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 42.6,
      "avg_r": 0.415,
      "total_r": 123.23,
      "net_avg_r": 0.379,
      "net_total_r": 112.63,
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      "worst_r": -3.12,
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      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.64,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.242
    },
    "short": {
      "total": 0,
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "expired": 0,
      "hit_rate": null,
      "avg_r": null,
      "total_r": null,
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      "net_total_r": null,
      "best_r": null,
      "worst_r": null,
      "avg_hold_days": null,
      "net_r_per_day": null,
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      "profit_factor": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
      "total": 228,
      "wins": 91,
      "losses": 123,
      "expired": 14,
      "hit_rate": 42.5,
      "avg_r": 0.397,
      "total_r": 90.51,
      "net_avg_r": 0.362,
      "net_total_r": 82.58,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0307,
      "median_net_r": -1.022,
      "profit_factor": 1.6,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.222
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 159,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 42.6,
      "avg_r": 0.415,
      "total_r": 123.23,
      "net_avg_r": 0.379,
      "net_total_r": 112.63,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
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      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.64,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.242
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 348,
      "wins": 128,
      "losses": 193,
      "expired": 27,
      "hit_rate": 39.9,
      "avg_r": 0.319,
      "total_r": 111.02,
      "net_avg_r": 0.283,
      "net_total_r": 98.49,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0241,
      "median_net_r": -1.023,
      "profit_factor": 1.46,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.138
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 397,
      "wins": 144,
      "losses": 220,
      "expired": 33,
      "hit_rate": 39.6,
      "avg_r": 0.307,
      "total_r": 122.06,
      "net_avg_r": 0.271,
      "net_total_r": 107.64,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0231,
      "median_net_r": -1.023,
      "profit_factor": 1.44,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.128
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 445,
      "wins": 160,
      "losses": 248,
      "expired": 37,
      "hit_rate": 39.2,
      "avg_r": 0.294,
      "total_r": 130.96,
      "net_avg_r": 0.258,
      "net_total_r": 114.91,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.97,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0219,
      "median_net_r": -1.023,
      "profit_factor": 1.42,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.109
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 1237,
      "wins": 391,
      "losses": 742,
      "expired": 104,
      "hit_rate": 34.5,
      "avg_r": 0.145,
      "total_r": 179.78,
      "net_avg_r": 0.11,
      "net_total_r": 136.41,
      "best_r": 6.46,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0098,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.17,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.051
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 159,
      "expired": 20,
      "hit_rate": 42.6,
      "avg_r": 0.415,
      "total_r": 123.23,
      "net_avg_r": 0.379,
      "net_total_r": 112.63,
      "best_r": 3.51,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0319,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.64,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.242,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 1.056,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 1.02,
      "hold_total_r": 313.66
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 1195,
      "wins": 413,
      "losses": 664,
      "expired": 118,
      "hit_rate": 38.3,
      "avg_r": 0.261,
      "total_r": 311.43,
      "net_avg_r": 0.216,
      "net_total_r": 258.43,
      "best_r": 4.14,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0171,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.35,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.538,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.494,
      "hold_total_r": 642.75
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3923,
      "wins": 1799,
      "losses": 1991,
      "expired": 133,
      "hit_rate": 47.5,
      "avg_r": 0.105,
      "total_r": 412.71,
      "net_avg_r": 0.052,
      "net_total_r": 205.48,
      "best_r": 4.14,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0064,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.09,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.087,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.365,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.312,
      "hold_total_r": 1431.74
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 2548,
      "wins": 862,
      "losses": 1413,
      "expired": 273,
      "hit_rate": 37.9,
      "avg_r": 0.223,
      "total_r": 569.0,
      "net_avg_r": 0.178,
      "net_total_r": 454.42,
      "best_r": 4.14,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0138,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.29,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.033,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.552,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.507,
      "hold_total_r": 1405.7
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7792,
      "wins": 3523,
      "losses": 3949,
      "expired": 320,
      "hit_rate": 47.1,
      "avg_r": 0.108,
      "total_r": 843.85,
      "net_avg_r": 0.057,
      "net_total_r": 444.78,
      "best_r": 4.14,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0066,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.1,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.078,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.417,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.366,
      "hold_total_r": 3247.74
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 167,
      "win_rate": 56.2,
      "avg_r": 0.176,
      "total_r": 52.41,
      "net_avg_r": 0.141,
      "net_total_r": 41.82,
      "best_r": 3.65,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.031,
      "median_net_r": 0.041,
      "profit_factor": 1.41,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.011
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 160,
      "win_rate": 53.9,
      "avg_r": 0.43,
      "total_r": 127.56,
      "net_avg_r": 0.394,
      "net_total_r": 116.97,
      "best_r": 5.76,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0494,
      "median_net_r": 0.117,
      "profit_factor": 1.87,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.192
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 135,
      "win_rate": 45.5,
      "avg_r": 0.878,
      "total_r": 260.62,
      "net_avg_r": 0.842,
      "net_total_r": 250.03,
      "best_r": 13.71,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0593,
      "median_net_r": -0.646,
      "profit_factor": 2.5,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.483
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 297,
      "wins": 120,
      "win_rate": 40.4,
      "avg_r": 1.056,
      "total_r": 313.66,
      "net_avg_r": 1.02,
      "net_total_r": 303.07,
      "best_r": 27.38,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0552,
      "median_net_r": -1.024,
      "profit_factor": 2.63,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.55
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14591.11,
        "total_return_pct": 45.9,
        "cagr_pct": 20.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.3,
        "sharpe": 1.13,
        "trades": 141,
        "win_rate": 41.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.56,
        "best_trade_r": 4.49,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.69,
        "best_trade_pnl": 488.13,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -159.92,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 77,
          "target": 53,
          "time": 11
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -1.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 29.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14912.71,
        "total_return_pct": 49.1,
        "cagr_pct": 21.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.03,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 981.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14912.71,
        "total_return_pct": 49.1,
        "cagr_pct": 21.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.03,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 981.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14773.17,
        "total_return_pct": 47.7,
        "cagr_pct": 21.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.5,
        "sharpe": 1.03,
        "trades": 96,
        "win_rate": 33.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 49.72,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1003.94,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -168.53,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 57,
          "time": 39
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 41.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13478.87,
        "total_return_pct": 34.8,
        "cagr_pct": 15.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.4,
        "sharpe": 0.85,
        "trades": 90,
        "win_rate": 33.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 38.65,
        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1044.71,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -154.52,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 54,
          "time": 36
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 23.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14912.71,
        "total_return_pct": 49.1,
        "cagr_pct": 21.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.03,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 981.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9923.65,
        "total_return_pct": -0.8,
        "cagr_pct": null,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 0.7,
        "sharpe": -2.9,
        "trades": 1,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "best_trade_r": -1.0,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.0,
        "best_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -76.35,
        "avg_hold_days": 1.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 1
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 6.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-05-24",
        "end_date": "2024-07-10"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14235.33,
        "total_return_pct": 42.4,
        "cagr_pct": 19.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 0.94,
        "trades": 107,
        "win_rate": 34.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 39.58,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 975.12,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -151.58,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 63,
          "time": 44
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 46.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 1.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14912.71,
        "total_return_pct": 49.1,
        "cagr_pct": 21.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.03,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 981.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15860.76,
        "total_return_pct": 58.6,
        "cagr_pct": 25.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.17,
        "trades": 103,
        "win_rate": 35.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 56.9,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1045.26,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -167.64,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 58,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14869.45,
        "total_return_pct": 48.7,
        "cagr_pct": 21.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.02,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 45.94,
        "best_trade_r": 7.79,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 978.48,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -158.33,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 11.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15615.79,
        "total_return_pct": 56.2,
        "cagr_pct": 24.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 16.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15656.45,
        "total_return_pct": 56.6,
        "cagr_pct": 24.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.1,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 53.36,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1042.48,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -166.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 15.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14996.83,
        "total_return_pct": 50.0,
        "cagr_pct": 22.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.01,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.14,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 996.67,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -159.56,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 11.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16132.42,
        "total_return_pct": 61.3,
        "cagr_pct": 21.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 29.8,
        "sharpe": 0.8,
        "trades": 225,
        "win_rate": 32.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 27.26,
        "best_trade_r": 9.64,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 916.82,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -264.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 142,
          "time": 83
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 180,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -26.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 97.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 10.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15839.88,
        "total_return_pct": 58.4,
        "cagr_pct": 20.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 29.8,
        "sharpe": 0.78,
        "trades": 226,
        "win_rate": 32.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.84,
        "best_trade_r": 9.64,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 916.82,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -264.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 143,
          "time": 83
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 154,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -26.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 97.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 8.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16999.64,
        "total_return_pct": 70.0,
        "cagr_pct": 24.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.3,
        "sharpe": 0.88,
        "trades": 214,
        "win_rate": 35.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.71,
        "best_trade_r": 9.64,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.97,
        "best_trade_pnl": 917.64,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -267.81,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 130,
          "time": 84
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 164,
        "spy_return_pct": 19.0,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -21.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 102.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 6.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15615.79,
        "total_return_pct": 56.2,
        "cagr_pct": 24.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 16.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 18181.16,
        "total_return_pct": 81.8,
        "cagr_pct": 34.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.4,
        "sharpe": 1.51,
        "trades": 138,
        "win_rate": 32.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 59.28,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.07,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3464.49,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -201.16,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 76,
          "stop": 30,
          "time": 32
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 37.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15480.91,
        "total_return_pct": 54.8,
        "cagr_pct": 24.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.6,
        "sharpe": 1.1,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 35.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 51.71,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1041.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -164.78,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 13,
          "stop": 55,
          "time": 38
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 39.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 16.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15615.79,
        "total_return_pct": 56.2,
        "cagr_pct": 24.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
        "trades": 106,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98,
        "best_trade_r": 9.06,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 45
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
        "spy_return_pct": 39.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 16.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20916.13,
        "total_return_pct": 109.2,
        "cagr_pct": 43.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.1,
        "sharpe": 1.75,
        "trades": 117,
        "win_rate": 41.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 93.3,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 3719.63,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -218.27,
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          "stop": 45,
          "time": 22,
          "trailing_stop": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 10,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.2
          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
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            "date": "2024-05-31",
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            "date": "2024-06-03",
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            "date": "2024-06-11",
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            "date": "2024-06-18",
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            "date": "2024-06-20",
            "equity": 12325.65,
            "return_pct": 23.26
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            "date": "2024-06-21",
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            "date": "2024-06-24",
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            "return_pct": 22.3
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            "date": "2024-06-26",
            "equity": 12292.08,
            "return_pct": 22.92
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            "date": "2024-06-27",
            "equity": 12311.45,
            "return_pct": 23.11
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            "equity": 12263.01,
            "return_pct": 22.63
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            "equity": 12288.24,
            "return_pct": 22.88
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            "date": "2024-07-02",
            "equity": 12370.94,
            "return_pct": 23.71
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            "date": "2024-07-03",
            "equity": 12426.15,
            "return_pct": 24.26
          },
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            "date": "2024-07-05",
            "equity": 12497.8,
            "return_pct": 24.98
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            "date": "2024-07-08",
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            "return_pct": 25.12
          },
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            "date": "2024-07-09",
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            "return_pct": 25.24
          },
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            "date": "2024-07-10",
            "equity": 12648.32,
            "return_pct": 26.48
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            "date": "2024-07-16",
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            "date": "2024-07-18",
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            "return_pct": 24.53
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            "date": "2024-07-19",
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            "date": "2024-07-22",
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            "date": "2024-07-23",
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            "date": "2024-07-24",
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            "date": "2024-07-25",
            "equity": 12132.09,
            "return_pct": 21.32
          },
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            "date": "2024-07-26",
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            "date": "2024-07-29",
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            "date": "2024-07-31",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
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          {
            "year": 2022,
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          {
            "year": 2023,
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          {
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        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-07-07",
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            "date": "2021-09-21",
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            "date": "2021-09-22",
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            "date": "2021-09-24",
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-27",
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            "date": "2021-10-28",
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            "date": "2021-10-29",
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            "date": "2021-11-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-03",
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            "date": "2021-11-04",
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            "date": "2021-11-05",
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            "date": "2021-11-09",
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            "date": "2021-11-11",
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            "date": "2021-11-12",
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            "date": "2021-11-17",
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            "date": "2021-11-18",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-30",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-03",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-06",
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-07",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-08",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-09",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-10",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-13",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-12-14",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-15",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-16",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-17",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-20",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-21",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-22",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-23",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-27",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-28",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-30",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-12-31",
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          {
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            "date": "2021-07-19",
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            "date": "2021-07-20",
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        ]
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    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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      "rr": 2.395647,
      "primary_prob": 25.07,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 5,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.593471,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.155861,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.176758,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 2.354941,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.277512,
      "strategy_rank": 81.1976,
      "rr": 1.02749,
      "primary_prob": 48.39,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.541235,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.645231,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.906427,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.980094,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.521531,
      "strategy_rank": 98.698485,
      "rr": 0.70987,
      "primary_prob": 52.07,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 63.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.064805,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 2.644847,
      "range_504_ratio": 14.081289,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.282297,
      "strategy_rank": 97.85083,
      "rr": 0.777976,
      "primary_prob": 49.15,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 62.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.166963,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 1.64195,
      "range_504_ratio": 5.165231,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.754121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.703349,
      "strategy_rank": 72.947237,
      "rr": 1.230708,
      "primary_prob": 43.0,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.846063,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 0.780632,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.182852,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.215311,
      "strategy_rank": 91.602985,
      "rr": 0.953331,
      "primary_prob": 47.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 86.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.429997,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 1.00906,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.743021,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.910731,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.440191,
      "strategy_rank": 71.232,
      "rr": 0.670856,
      "primary_prob": 61.13,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 11,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.006285,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.573501,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.774468,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.606086,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.038278,
      "strategy_rank": 70.791472,
      "rr": 1.576522,
      "primary_prob": 35.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.364784,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.474386,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.607027,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.368421,
      "strategy_rank": 96.367919,
      "rr": 0.870834,
      "primary_prob": 50.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 84.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.306251,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.184049,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.267579,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +43.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.75, max drawdown -24.1%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+1.02R net/trade vs +0.38R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +21.7% vs +20.4% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.53R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.71R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.51R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.38R over 297 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +9.6 points (+49.1% vs +39.5%), max drawdown \u221223.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.55R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.03 vs 1.03, CAGR +21.7% vs +21.7%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.85 vs 1.03, drawdown 20.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +15.8% vs +21.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 0.94 vs 1.03, drawdown 23.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +19.0% vs +21.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.17 vs 1.03, drawdown 23.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +25.5% vs +21.7%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}