{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T08:10:47.323902+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 202176,
  "qualified": 290,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary",
    "range_factor_lookback": 504,
    "range_factor_min_log": 1.0,
    "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183,
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": null
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 290,
    "wins": 118,
    "losses": 151,
    "expired": 21,
    "hit_rate": 43.9,
    "avg_r": 0.393,
    "total_r": 113.83,
    "net_avg_r": 0.358,
    "net_total_r": 103.74,
    "best_r": 3.09,
    "worst_r": -3.12,
    "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0313,
    "median_net_r": -1.019,
    "profit_factor": 1.62,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.224
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 202176,
    "wins": 80685,
    "losses": 114117,
    "expired": 7374,
    "hit_rate": 41.4,
    "avg_r": -0.048,
    "total_r": -9747.5,
    "net_avg_r": -0.102,
    "net_total_r": -20698.64,
    "best_r": 9.13,
    "worst_r": -16.42,
    "avg_hold_days": 8.3,
    "net_r_per_day": -0.0123,
    "median_net_r": -1.036,
    "profit_factor": 0.84,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.23
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 21,
      "hit_rate": 43.9,
      "avg_r": 0.393,
      "total_r": 113.83,
      "net_avg_r": 0.358,
      "net_total_r": 103.74,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0313,
      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.62,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.224
    },
    "short": {
      "total": 0,
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 0,
      "expired": 0,
      "hit_rate": null,
      "avg_r": null,
      "total_r": null,
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      "net_total_r": null,
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      "worst_r": null,
      "avg_hold_days": null,
      "net_r_per_day": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
  "sweep": [
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
      "total": 217,
      "wins": 86,
      "losses": 119,
      "expired": 12,
      "hit_rate": 42.0,
      "avg_r": 0.325,
      "total_r": 70.54,
      "net_avg_r": 0.292,
      "net_total_r": 63.32,
      "best_r": 3.08,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0263,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.48,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.161
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 21,
      "hit_rate": 43.9,
      "avg_r": 0.393,
      "total_r": 113.83,
      "net_avg_r": 0.358,
      "net_total_r": 103.74,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
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      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.62,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.224
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 353,
      "wins": 133,
      "losses": 191,
      "expired": 29,
      "hit_rate": 41.0,
      "avg_r": 0.312,
      "total_r": 110.2,
      "net_avg_r": 0.277,
      "net_total_r": 97.67,
      "best_r": 3.53,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0244,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.47,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.138
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 417,
      "wins": 154,
      "losses": 225,
      "expired": 38,
      "hit_rate": 40.6,
      "avg_r": 0.291,
      "total_r": 121.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.255,
      "net_total_r": 106.37,
      "best_r": 3.53,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0223,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.43,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.119
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 478,
      "wins": 176,
      "losses": 258,
      "expired": 44,
      "hit_rate": 40.6,
      "avg_r": 0.285,
      "total_r": 136.31,
      "net_avg_r": 0.249,
      "net_total_r": 119.24,
      "best_r": 3.53,
      "worst_r": -3.97,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0215,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.42,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.112
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 1308,
      "wins": 419,
      "losses": 774,
      "expired": 115,
      "hit_rate": 35.1,
      "avg_r": 0.122,
      "total_r": 160.22,
      "net_avg_r": 0.087,
      "net_total_r": 113.91,
      "best_r": 6.46,
      "worst_r": -6.67,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0077,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.13,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.077
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 118,
      "losses": 151,
      "expired": 21,
      "hit_rate": 43.9,
      "avg_r": 0.393,
      "total_r": 113.83,
      "net_avg_r": 0.358,
      "net_total_r": 103.74,
      "best_r": 3.09,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0313,
      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.62,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.224,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.978,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.944,
      "hold_total_r": 283.76
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 1011,
      "wins": 348,
      "losses": 572,
      "expired": 91,
      "hit_rate": 37.8,
      "avg_r": 0.195,
      "total_r": 197.29,
      "net_avg_r": 0.15,
      "net_total_r": 152.12,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -3.43,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0127,
      "median_net_r": -1.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.24,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.008,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.54,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.495,
      "hold_total_r": 545.62
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 7098,
      "wins": 3332,
      "losses": 3570,
      "expired": 196,
      "hit_rate": 48.3,
      "avg_r": 0.103,
      "total_r": 729.14,
      "net_avg_r": 0.051,
      "net_total_r": 359.46,
      "best_r": 4.05,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0064,
      "median_net_r": -1.017,
      "profit_factor": 1.09,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.065,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.334,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.282,
      "hold_total_r": 2370.27
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 2619,
      "wins": 853,
      "losses": 1496,
      "expired": 270,
      "hit_rate": 36.3,
      "avg_r": 0.138,
      "total_r": 361.03,
      "net_avg_r": 0.093,
      "net_total_r": 242.41,
      "best_r": 4.07,
      "worst_r": -5.71,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0074,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 1.15,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.047,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.444,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.398,
      "hold_total_r": 1162.03
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 14982,
      "wins": 6764,
      "losses": 7641,
      "expired": 577,
      "hit_rate": 47.0,
      "avg_r": 0.115,
      "total_r": 1729.94,
      "net_avg_r": 0.065,
      "net_total_r": 976.18,
      "best_r": 4.07,
      "worst_r": -6.02,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0074,
      "median_net_r": -1.02,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.051,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.387,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.337,
      "hold_total_r": 5802.43
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 165,
      "win_rate": 56.9,
      "avg_r": 0.174,
      "total_r": 50.38,
      "net_avg_r": 0.139,
      "net_total_r": 40.29,
      "best_r": 5.59,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.031,
      "median_net_r": 0.133,
      "profit_factor": 1.4,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.007
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 162,
      "win_rate": 55.9,
      "avg_r": 0.452,
      "total_r": 131.18,
      "net_avg_r": 0.418,
      "net_total_r": 121.09,
      "best_r": 6.73,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0529,
      "median_net_r": 0.124,
      "profit_factor": 1.93,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.183
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 139,
      "win_rate": 47.9,
      "avg_r": 0.789,
      "total_r": 228.7,
      "net_avg_r": 0.754,
      "net_total_r": 218.61,
      "best_r": 9.01,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0537,
      "median_net_r": -0.669,
      "profit_factor": 2.36,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.447
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 290,
      "wins": 119,
      "win_rate": 41.0,
      "avg_r": 0.978,
      "total_r": 283.76,
      "net_avg_r": 0.944,
      "net_total_r": 273.67,
      "best_r": 12.87,
      "worst_r": -3.12,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0515,
      "median_net_r": -1.023,
      "profit_factor": 2.52,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.532
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16356.91,
        "total_return_pct": 63.6,
        "cagr_pct": 13.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 0.97,
        "trades": 195,
        "win_rate": 41.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 32.6,
        "best_trade_r": 4.49,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 480.0,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -294.77,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "target": 72,
          "time": 16
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 5,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -1.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 27.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 11.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 17.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 0.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 25860.05,
        "total_return_pct": 158.6,
        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.0,
        "sharpe": 1.39,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 37.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 95.54,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2852.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 36.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 25860.05,
        "total_return_pct": 158.6,
        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.0,
        "sharpe": 1.39,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 37.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 95.54,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2852.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 52.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 21.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 36.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 27679.9,
        "total_return_pct": 176.8,
        "cagr_pct": 29.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.9,
        "sharpe": 1.47,
        "trades": 169,
        "win_rate": 36.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 104.61,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2732.81,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -328.0,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 101,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 15,
        "spy_return_pct": 79.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 43.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 9.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 48.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 21.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20685.4,
        "total_return_pct": 106.9,
        "cagr_pct": 20.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.6,
        "sharpe": 1.21,
        "trades": 135,
        "win_rate": 34.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 79.15,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2281.3,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -274.38,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 84,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 79.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 16.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 9.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 51.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 10.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-08-03",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 25860.05,
        "total_return_pct": 158.6,
        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.0,
        "sharpe": 1.39,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 37.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 95.54,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2852.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
        "start_date": "2024-05-24",
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      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
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      {
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      {
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        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
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            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
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      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
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      {
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        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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        ],
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
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          {
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          },
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          {
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          {
            "year": 2025,
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          {
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "final_equity": 25871.56,
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          "stop": 97,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
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        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
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      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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        ],
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
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          {
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        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
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          {
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          {
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
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      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
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        },
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
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      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
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        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
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          {
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            "year": 2024,
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          {
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
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      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
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          {
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            "year": 2024,
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          {
            "year": 2025,
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          {
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-03-03",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": 190.98,
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          "time": 1
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2026,
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        ],
        "start_date": "2026-04-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 25871.56,
        "total_return_pct": 158.7,
        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.3,
        "sharpe": 1.4,
        "trades": 165,
        "win_rate": 37.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 96.19,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2853.59,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 97,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 54.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 35.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 30003.17,
        "total_return_pct": 200.0,
        "cagr_pct": 32.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 11.7,
        "sharpe": 1.72,
        "trades": 186,
        "win_rate": 38.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 107.54,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 3394.23,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -323.11,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 88,
          "stop": 47,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -4.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 73.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 29.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 31.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
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        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
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        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
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        "exit_reasons": {
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          "stop": 94,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
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            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
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          {
            "year": 2024,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.2
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        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
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        "cagr_pct": 27.2,
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        "sharpe": 1.4,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 97,
          "time": 68
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 9,
        "spy_return_pct": 88.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 35.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
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        "cagr_pct": 28.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.3,
        "sharpe": 1.53,
        "trades": 170,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 100.94,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.88,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3061.77,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -356.82,
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          "stop": 69,
          "time": 40,
          "trailing_stop": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 8,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      },
      {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
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        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
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      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
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      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
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        ],
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            "date": "2021-07-06",
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
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            "date": "2021-11-03",
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            "date": "2021-11-04",
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            "date": "2021-11-05",
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            "date": "2021-11-10",
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            "date": "2021-11-26",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-30",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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          {
            "date": "2021-12-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
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      "volume_profile": 94763
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      ],
      "primary_strength": 80.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 8,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.903355,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.750881,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.118866,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.046953,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.352941,
      "strategy_rank": 75.051122,
      "rr": 1.243132,
      "primary_prob": 44.9,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.864699,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.73926,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.094385,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.042378,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PWR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.158371,
      "strategy_rank": 86.914471,
      "rr": 1.422684,
      "primary_prob": 29.76,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 55.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.134026,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 1.245147,
      "range_504_ratio": 3.473445,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.034308,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ROST",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 83.823529,
      "strategy_rank": 65.5162,
      "rr": 1.677652,
      "primary_prob": 34.12,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.516478,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 0.636143,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.889179,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.623915,
      "hold30_r": 0.104377
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RTX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 86.538462,
      "strategy_rank": 67.653673,
      "rr": 1.78174,
      "primary_prob": 23.09,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 53.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.672611,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.772473,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.165114,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.729708,
      "hold30_r": 2.34066
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.208145,
      "strategy_rank": 98.70078,
      "rr": 0.819997,
      "primary_prob": 45.58,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 52.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.229996,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "range_504_log": 2.588814,
      "range_504_ratio": 13.313974,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.797885,
      "hold30_r": 2.601969
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TER",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.755656,
      "strategy_rank": 98.248598,
      "rr": 1.513615,
      "primary_prob": 29.79,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 64.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.270422,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.859102,
      "range_504_ratio": 6.417972,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.494373,
      "hold30_r": 3.185192
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 93.099548,
      "strategy_rank": 87.280293,
      "rr": 1.895731,
      "primary_prob": 28.25,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 87.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 8,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.843597,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.525513,
      "range_504_ratio": 4.597502,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.864035,
      "hold30_r": 1.548927
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ULTA",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.674208,
      "strategy_rank": 78.571494,
      "rr": 1.786225,
      "primary_prob": 32.42,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 16,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.679337,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 0.838867,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.313744,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.745991,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.606335,
      "strategy_rank": 96.473193,
      "rr": 0.725611,
      "primary_prob": 49.82,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 55.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.088416,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 1.958451,
      "range_504_ratio": 7.08834,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.024425,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VTRS",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.705882,
      "strategy_rank": 79.52098,
      "rr": 1.273964,
      "primary_prob": 46.78,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 49.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.910946,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 13,
      "range_504_log": 0.939665,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.559124,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.040816,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.660633,
      "strategy_rank": 99.254543,
      "rr": 1.489804,
      "primary_prob": 24.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.234706,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 2.902267,
      "range_504_ratio": 18.215401,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.469243,
      "hold30_r": 3.130897
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.687783,
      "strategy_rank": 65.975353,
      "rr": 0.843702,
      "primary_prob": 54.13,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 99.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.265553,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 13,
      "range_504_log": 0.809533,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.246858,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.787284,
      "hold30_r": -1.005719
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XOM",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.932127,
      "strategy_rank": 73.381383,
      "rr": 2.39065,
      "primary_prob": 27.32,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.585975,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "range_504_log": 0.589886,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.803783,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.050102,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GEV",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.153846,
      "strategy_rank": 95.24223,
      "rr": 1.594005,
      "primary_prob": 22.34,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 34.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.391007,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 2.064219,
      "range_504_ratio": 7.879141,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.028387,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WBD",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.190045,
      "strategy_rank": 72.965537,
      "rr": 1.533133,
      "primary_prob": 36.63,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.299699,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "range_504_log": 1.508085,
      "range_504_ratio": 4.518072,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.155088,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +28.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.53, max drawdown -14.3%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.94R net/trade vs +0.36R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +27.2% vs +13.3% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.45R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.66R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.55R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.36R over 290 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +69.9 points (+158.6% vs +88.7%), max drawdown \u221217.0%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.53R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.39 vs 1.39, CAGR +27.2% vs +27.2%, skipped 0 vs 9."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.21 vs 1.39, drawdown 16.6% vs 17.0%, CAGR +20.4% vs +27.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.50 vs 1.39, drawdown 17.0% vs 17.0%, CAGR +29.8% vs +27.2%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}