# Regime Monitor v4 calibration

Generated 2026-08-08T20:19:31 at `c3ae5ad`, 2024-12-05 → 2026-07-24.

## Hard gates

| gate | expected | measured | |
|---|---|---|---|
| symbols_fetched | 33 | 33 | ok |
| per_symbol_warmup_252_bars | all | 33 | ok |
| per_symbol_reaches_last_session | 2026-07-24 | 33 | ok |
| breadth_counts_full_basket | 30 | 408/408 sessions | ok |
| sessions_scored | 408 | 408 | ok |
| last_scored_date | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-24 | ok |
| w1_available_every_session | 408 | 408 | ok |
| state_coverage_100_every_row | 0 | 0 | ok |
| no_stale_inputs | 0 | 0 | ok |
| state_v4_le_v3_every_row | 0 | 0 | ok |

## Distributions

| variant | avg | median | p80 | p90 | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2_reconstruction | 22.68 | 16.15 | 35.1 | 65.63 | 91.2 |
| v3 | 18.13 | 9.1 | 31.36 | 65.0 | 87.4 |
| v4 | 14.78 | 8.35 | 21.7 | 43.63 | 83.5 |
| v4-vix-b | 15.24 | 8.55 | 22.62 | 44.33 | 83.6 |
| v4-p1-capped | 14.73 | 8.35 | 21.7 | 43.63 | 80.1 |

## Saturation census (sessions pegged at 100)

| variant | P1 | P2 | P3 | V1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2_reconstruction | 46 | 0 | 39 | 14 |
| v3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| v4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| v4-vix-b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| v4-p1-capped | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

## Reproduction gates — v2_reconstruction

| figure | published | measured | |
|---|---|---|---|
| v2_state_avg | 22.6 | 22.68 | ok |
| v2_state_p80 | 35.1 | 35.1 | ok |
| v2_state_max | 91.2 | 91.2 | ok |
| v2_p3_pegged | 39 | 39 | ok |
| w1_live_sessions | 108 | 108 | ok |

## Reproduction gates — v3

| figure | published | measured | |
|---|---|---|---|
| v3_state_max | 87.4 | 87.4 | ok |

## v4 band-share grid (watch 20 / elevated 50)

| breaking | stable | watch | elevated | breaking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| 65 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| 70 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.2 |

## Scenarios (pillar arithmetic, explicit sensor scores)

| scenario | price | breadth | C1 | V1 | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1  ordinary tape | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | **3.6** |
| S2  10% correction, calm credit | 31.25 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 34.4 | **33.28** |
| S3a 2022-style, calm credit, no death cross | 90.83 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | **70.33** |
| S3b 2022-style, calm credit, death cross | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | **74.0** |
| S4  credit event on top | 100.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 86.67 | **93.0** |
| S5  March 2020, everything pegged | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | **100.0** |

Recommendation: `{'state_bands_candidate': [20.0, 50.0, 65.0], 'provisional': False, 'note': 'confirm against band_grid + scenarios before shipping'}`