{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T19:47:22.927893+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 82887,
  "qualified": 558,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "confirmed_rounds",
    "entry_start": "2024-07-01",
    "entry_end": null
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 558,
    "wins": 184,
    "losses": 308,
    "expired": 66,
    "hit_rate": 37.4,
    "avg_r": 0.176,
    "total_r": 98.2,
    "net_avg_r": 0.136,
    "net_total_r": 76.08,
    "best_r": 3.92,
    "worst_r": -4.3,
    "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.011,
    "median_net_r": -1.026,
    "profit_factor": 1.22,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009
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  "overall_all": {
    "total": 82887,
    "wins": 33507,
    "losses": 45887,
    "expired": 3493,
    "hit_rate": 42.2,
    "avg_r": -0.063,
    "total_r": -5216.92,
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    "median_net_r": -1.034,
    "profit_factor": 0.81,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.251
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 184,
      "losses": 308,
      "expired": 66,
      "hit_rate": 37.4,
      "avg_r": 0.176,
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  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
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      "wins": 103,
      "losses": 144,
      "expired": 36,
      "hit_rate": 41.7,
      "avg_r": 0.312,
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      "median_net_r": -1.014,
      "profit_factor": 1.49,
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    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 184,
      "losses": 308,
      "expired": 66,
      "hit_rate": 37.4,
      "avg_r": 0.176,
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      "net_total_r": 76.08,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 880,
      "wins": 276,
      "losses": 497,
      "expired": 107,
      "hit_rate": 35.7,
      "avg_r": 0.145,
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      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
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      "median_net_r": -1.029,
      "profit_factor": 1.16,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.046
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1326,
      "wins": 393,
      "losses": 757,
      "expired": 176,
      "hit_rate": 34.2,
      "avg_r": 0.101,
      "total_r": 133.86,
      "net_avg_r": 0.056,
      "net_total_r": 74.58,
      "best_r": 3.92,
      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0044,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.09,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.094
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 1942,
      "wins": 555,
      "losses": 1124,
      "expired": 263,
      "hit_rate": 33.1,
      "avg_r": 0.075,
      "total_r": 145.57,
      "net_avg_r": 0.029,
      "net_total_r": 55.59,
      "best_r": 4.47,
      "worst_r": -4.86,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0023,
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      "profit_factor": 1.04,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.126
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 7776,
      "wins": 1949,
      "losses": 4906,
      "expired": 921,
      "hit_rate": 28.4,
      "avg_r": -0.066,
      "total_r": -515.15,
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    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
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      "wins": 184,
      "losses": 308,
      "expired": 66,
      "hit_rate": 37.4,
      "avg_r": 0.176,
      "total_r": 98.2,
      "net_avg_r": 0.136,
      "net_total_r": 76.08,
      "best_r": 3.92,
      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.011,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.22,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.506,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.466,
      "hold_total_r": 282.32
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 595,
      "wins": 192,
      "losses": 333,
      "expired": 70,
      "hit_rate": 36.6,
      "avg_r": 0.148,
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      "profit_factor": 1.17,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.039,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.464,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.424,
      "hold_total_r": 275.91
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3147,
      "wins": 1545,
      "losses": 1498,
      "expired": 104,
      "hit_rate": 50.8,
      "avg_r": 0.093,
      "total_r": 292.09,
      "net_avg_r": 0.042,
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      "best_r": 3.92,
      "worst_r": -4.32,
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      "median_net_r": -0.034,
      "profit_factor": 1.08,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.081,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.303,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.252,
      "hold_total_r": 953.98
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 1550,
      "wins": 468,
      "losses": 892,
      "expired": 190,
      "hit_rate": 34.4,
      "avg_r": 0.07,
      "total_r": 108.58,
      "net_avg_r": 0.03,
      "net_total_r": 46.1,
      "best_r": 3.92,
      "worst_r": -5.71,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0023,
      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.05,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.112,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.304,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.264,
      "hold_total_r": 471.31
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7171,
      "wins": 3521,
      "losses": 3388,
      "expired": 262,
      "hit_rate": 51.0,
      "avg_r": 0.108,
      "total_r": 775.85,
      "net_avg_r": 0.059,
      "net_total_r": 422.41,
      "best_r": 3.92,
      "worst_r": -5.71,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0074,
      "median_net_r": -0.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.06,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.361,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.312,
      "hold_total_r": 2590.53
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 309,
      "win_rate": 55.4,
      "avg_r": 0.157,
      "total_r": 87.85,
      "net_avg_r": 0.118,
      "net_total_r": 65.73,
      "best_r": 10.77,
      "worst_r": -3.78,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.026,
      "median_net_r": 0.1,
      "profit_factor": 1.32,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.033
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 284,
      "win_rate": 50.9,
      "avg_r": 0.273,
      "total_r": 152.56,
      "net_avg_r": 0.234,
      "net_total_r": 130.44,
      "best_r": 10.99,
      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0295,
      "median_net_r": 0.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.47,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.02
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 243,
      "win_rate": 43.5,
      "avg_r": 0.407,
      "total_r": 227.09,
      "net_avg_r": 0.367,
      "net_total_r": 204.97,
      "best_r": 9.46,
      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0268,
      "median_net_r": -1.024,
      "profit_factor": 1.59,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.07
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 558,
      "wins": 217,
      "win_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.506,
      "total_r": 282.32,
      "net_avg_r": 0.466,
      "net_total_r": 260.2,
      "best_r": 12.87,
      "worst_r": -4.3,
      "avg_hold_days": 17.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0263,
      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.7,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.105
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11819.79,
        "total_return_pct": 18.2,
        "cagr_pct": 8.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.1,
        "sharpe": 0.53,
        "trades": 207,
        "win_rate": 37.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 8.79,
        "best_trade_r": 3.92,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 330.47,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -504.53,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 124,
          "target": 64,
          "time": 19
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 19,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -4.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 16.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13647.5,
        "total_return_pct": 36.5,
        "cagr_pct": 16.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.1,
        "sharpe": 0.83,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 21.97,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1037.76,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -481.66,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 104,
          "time": 62
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 79,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 30.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13647.5,
        "total_return_pct": 36.5,
        "cagr_pct": 16.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.1,
        "sharpe": 0.83,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 21.97,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1037.76,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -481.66,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 104,
          "time": 62
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 79,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 30.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13006.48,
        "total_return_pct": 30.1,
        "cagr_pct": 14.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.9,
        "sharpe": 0.69,
        "trades": 168,
        "win_rate": 29.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 17.9,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1000.13,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -501.94,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 111,
          "time": 57
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 88,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 19.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15650.8,
        "total_return_pct": 56.5,
        "cagr_pct": 25.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.9,
        "sharpe": 1.14,
        "trades": 119,
        "win_rate": 37.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.49,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1240.04,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -574.8,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 70,
          "time": 49
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 39,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 28.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 25.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13647.5,
        "total_return_pct": 36.5,
        "cagr_pct": 16.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 25.1,
        "sharpe": 0.83,
        "trades": 166,
        "win_rate": 32.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 21.97,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1037.76,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -481.66,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.5,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 104,
          "time": 62
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 30.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
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        "cagr_pct": 14.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 5.7,
        "sharpe": 1.4,
        "trades": 60,
        "win_rate": 38.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 50.33,
        "best_trade_r": 8.98,
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          "stop": 35,
          "time": 25
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -4.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 20.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-17",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 10703.52,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 5.2,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 33.5,
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          "stop": 11,
          "time": 10
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": -2.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-09-05",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12841.15,
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        "cagr_pct": 13.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.7,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 19.33,
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          "stop": 95,
          "time": 52
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -1.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 22.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13170.92,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 20.33,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 99,
          "time": 57
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 61,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 12.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17007.28,
        "total_return_pct": 70.1,
        "cagr_pct": 30.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.4,
        "sharpe": 1.26,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 50.78,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -681.55,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 86,
          "time": 52
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 34,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 49.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 9.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14471.23,
        "total_return_pct": 44.7,
        "cagr_pct": 20.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.9,
        "sharpe": 0.93,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 27.26,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 1097.45,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -516.42,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 103,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 79,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 25.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12397.91,
        "total_return_pct": 24.0,
        "cagr_pct": 11.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.3,
        "sharpe": 0.59,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 14.02,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 1005.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -485.53,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 111,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 14.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11650.14,
        "total_return_pct": 16.5,
        "cagr_pct": 7.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.3,
        "sharpe": 0.45,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 9.71,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -484.24,
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          "stop": 109,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 10.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9836.68,
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        "cagr_pct": -0.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 29.4,
        "sharpe": 0.08,
        "trades": 175,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": -0.93,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
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          "stop": 119,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -2.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19291.81,
        "total_return_pct": 92.9,
        "cagr_pct": 38.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 33.8,
        "sharpe": 1.34,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 44.04,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.18,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -384.33,
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          "stop": 128,
          "time": 83
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 677,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -2.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 39.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19222.88,
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        "cagr_pct": 38.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 32.9,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 43.1,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.18,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 130,
          "time": 84
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 350,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 41.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19118.55,
        "total_return_pct": 91.2,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 28.9,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 44.05,
        "best_trade_r": 12.11,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.18,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -378.83,
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          "stop": 128,
          "time": 79
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 128,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -3.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 38.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11100.98,
        "total_return_pct": 11.0,
        "cagr_pct": 5.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.1,
        "sharpe": 0.54,
        "trades": 96,
        "win_rate": 38.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 11.47,
        "best_trade_r": 6.59,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.26,
        "best_trade_pnl": 419.26,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -130.97,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 57,
          "time": 39
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.2,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 2.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": -10.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 21.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-31",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12397.91,
        "total_return_pct": 24.0,
        "cagr_pct": 11.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.3,
        "sharpe": 0.59,
        "trades": 171,
        "win_rate": 30.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 14.02,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1005.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -485.53,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 111,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 9.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 14.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16422.99,
        "total_return_pct": 64.2,
        "cagr_pct": 28.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.2,
        "sharpe": 1.29,
        "trades": 232,
        "win_rate": 33.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 27.69,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.61,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1870.15,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -186.51,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 139,
          "stop": 50,
          "time": 43
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 65,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 13.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 37.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14055.85,
        "total_return_pct": 40.6,
        "cagr_pct": 18.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.1,
        "sharpe": 0.84,
        "trades": 169,
        "win_rate": 31.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 24.0,
        "best_trade_r": 10.13,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.3,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1140.34,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -531.94,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 14,
          "stop": 104,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 0.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 18.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12397.91,
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        "cagr_pct": 11.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 26.3,
        "sharpe": 0.59,
        "trades": 171,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 14.02,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -485.53,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 111,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 81,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 9.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 14.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14435.84,
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        "cagr_pct": 20.2,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 25.2,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -519.26,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 85,
          "time": 31,
          "trailing_stop": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 77,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
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        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-02",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
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        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
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        "live_exit_mode": null,
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            "date": "2026-01-02",
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            "return_pct": 21.11
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            "date": "2026-05-20",
            "equity": 16702.72,
            "return_pct": 67.03
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            "date": "2026-05-21",
            "equity": 16735.84,
            "return_pct": 67.36
          },
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            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "equity": 16801.64,
            "return_pct": 68.02
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            "date": "2026-05-26",
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            "date": "2026-06-03",
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            "return_pct": 69.95
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            "date": "2026-06-04",
            "equity": 17059.65,
            "return_pct": 70.6
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "equity": 16619.35,
            "return_pct": 66.19
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            "date": "2026-06-08",
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            "return_pct": 66.57
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
            "equity": 16608.08,
            "return_pct": 66.08
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            "date": "2026-06-10",
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            "date": "2026-06-16",
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            "date": "2026-06-17",
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            "date": "2026-06-18",
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            "date": "2026-06-22",
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            "date": "2026-06-23",
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            "date": "2026-06-24",
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            "date": "2026-06-25",
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            "date": "2026-06-26",
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            "date": "2026-06-30",
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            "date": "2026-07-02",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
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        ],
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          {
            "date": "2022-01-04",
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            "date": "2022-01-05",
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            "date": "2022-01-07",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
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        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true,
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        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "live_exit_mode": "atr_trailing",
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        ]
      },
      {
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    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": true,
      "meets_core": true,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.895928,
      "strategy_rank": 82.791258,
      "rr": 2.589808,
      "primary_prob": 24.72,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 32.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.884712,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.075823,
      "hold30_r": -1.035923
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PH",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 80.542986,
      "strategy_rank": 64.845102,
      "rr": 1.115566,
      "primary_prob": 41.52,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 78.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.673349,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.046953,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.352941,
      "strategy_rank": 75.051122,
      "rr": 1.243132,
      "primary_prob": 45.9,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 41.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.864699,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.042378,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PWR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.158371,
      "strategy_rank": 86.914471,
      "rr": 1.422684,
      "primary_prob": 30.76,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 60.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.134026,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.034308,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ROST",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 83.823529,
      "strategy_rank": 65.5162,
      "rr": 0.736256,
      "primary_prob": 55.19,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 84.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.104384,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.682519,
      "hold30_r": 0.104377
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RTX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 86.538462,
      "strategy_rank": 67.653673,
      "rr": 2.659673,
      "primary_prob": 20.94,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 91.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 10,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.989509,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 2.60764,
      "hold30_r": 2.34066
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.208145,
      "strategy_rank": 98.70078,
      "rr": 0.819997,
      "primary_prob": 46.58,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 57.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.229996,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.797885,
      "hold30_r": 2.601969
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TER",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.755656,
      "strategy_rank": 98.248598,
      "rr": 0.901215,
      "primary_prob": 45.54,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 66.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.351823,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.881974,
      "hold30_r": 3.185192
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 93.099548,
      "strategy_rank": 87.280293,
      "rr": 2.365943,
      "primary_prob": 23.56,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 91.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.548914,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 2.334247,
      "hold30_r": 1.548927
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ULTA",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.674208,
      "strategy_rank": 78.571494,
      "rr": 1.786225,
      "primary_prob": 32.42,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 16,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.679337,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.745991,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.606335,
      "strategy_rank": 96.473193,
      "rr": 0.725611,
      "primary_prob": 50.82,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 60.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.088416,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.024425,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VTRS",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.705882,
      "strategy_rank": 79.52098,
      "rr": 1.273964,
      "primary_prob": 46.78,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 49.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.910946,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.040816,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.660633,
      "strategy_rank": 99.254543,
      "rr": 1.489804,
      "primary_prob": 24.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 36.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.234706,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 15,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.469243,
      "hold30_r": 3.130897
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.687783,
      "strategy_rank": 65.975353,
      "rr": 0.843702,
      "primary_prob": 47.93,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 68.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.265553,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 13,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.787284,
      "hold30_r": -1.005719
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XOM",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": true,
      "meets_core": true,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.932127,
      "strategy_rank": 73.381383,
      "rr": 2.39065,
      "primary_prob": 28.32,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 41.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 3.585975,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 14,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.050102,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GEV",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.153846,
      "strategy_rank": 95.24223,
      "rr": 1.102672,
      "primary_prob": 39.27,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "round_number"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 65.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.654008,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.074285,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WBD",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.190045,
      "strategy_rank": 72.965537,
      "rr": 1.533133,
      "primary_prob": 32.23,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 78.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.299699,
      "raw_level_count": 16,
      "gate_level_count": 16,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.155088,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +20.2% CAGR, Sharpe 0.95, max drawdown -25.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.47R net/trade vs +0.14R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +16.8% vs +8.7% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.04R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.20R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.28R over 283 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +0.8 points (+36.5% vs +35.7%), max drawdown \u221225.1%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.10R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 0.83 vs 0.83, CAGR +16.8% vs +16.8%, skipped 0 vs 79."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 is a promotion candidate: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.14 vs 0.83, drawdown 19.9% vs 25.1%, CAGR +25.1% vs +16.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.40 vs 0.83, drawdown 5.7% vs 25.1%, CAGR +14.4% vs +16.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": true,
        "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.26 vs 0.83, drawdown 17.4% vs 25.1%, CAGR +30.4% vs +16.8%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}