{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T19:45:43.047718+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 83534,
  "qualified": 410,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "production_control",
    "entry_start": "2024-07-01",
    "entry_end": null
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 410,
    "wins": 145,
    "losses": 229,
    "expired": 36,
    "hit_rate": 38.8,
    "avg_r": 0.219,
    "total_r": 89.82,
    "net_avg_r": 0.174,
    "net_total_r": 71.41,
    "best_r": 4.42,
    "worst_r": -2.68,
    "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0153,
    "median_net_r": -1.031,
    "profit_factor": 1.27,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.022
  },
  "overall_all": {
    "total": 83534,
    "wins": 33216,
    "losses": 47077,
    "expired": 3241,
    "hit_rate": 41.4,
    "avg_r": -0.058,
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    "net_avg_r": -0.111,
    "net_total_r": -9309.18,
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    "median_net_r": -1.035,
    "profit_factor": 0.82,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.238
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 145,
      "losses": 229,
      "expired": 36,
      "hit_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.219,
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    "short": {
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      "profit_factor": null,
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  },
  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
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      "wins": 70,
      "losses": 103,
      "expired": 19,
      "hit_rate": 40.5,
      "avg_r": 0.263,
      "total_r": 50.49,
      "net_avg_r": 0.224,
      "net_total_r": 42.97,
      "best_r": 3.89,
      "worst_r": -2.51,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0196,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.37,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 145,
      "losses": 229,
      "expired": 36,
      "hit_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.219,
      "total_r": 89.82,
      "net_avg_r": 0.174,
      "net_total_r": 71.41,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -2.68,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 695,
      "wins": 219,
      "losses": 416,
      "expired": 60,
      "hit_rate": 34.5,
      "avg_r": 0.092,
      "total_r": 64.01,
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      "best_r": 5.26,
      "worst_r": -3.15,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.2,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0039,
      "median_net_r": -1.039,
      "profit_factor": 1.07,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.108
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1066,
      "wins": 312,
      "losses": 648,
      "expired": 106,
      "hit_rate": 32.5,
      "avg_r": 0.035,
      "total_r": 36.91,
      "net_avg_r": -0.015,
      "net_total_r": -15.9,
      "best_r": 5.26,
      "worst_r": -3.15,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.6,
      "net_r_per_day": -0.0013,
      "median_net_r": -1.043,
      "profit_factor": 0.98,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.166
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 1557,
      "wins": 437,
      "losses": 947,
      "expired": 173,
      "hit_rate": 31.6,
      "avg_r": 0.007,
      "total_r": 11.41,
      "net_avg_r": -0.043,
      "net_total_r": -67.0,
      "best_r": 5.39,
      "worst_r": -4.86,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": -0.0036,
      "median_net_r": -1.044,
      "profit_factor": 0.94,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.195
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 6263,
      "wins": 1525,
      "losses": 4017,
      "expired": 721,
      "hit_rate": 27.5,
      "avg_r": -0.107,
      "total_r": -668.98,
      "net_avg_r": -0.156,
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      "best_r": 9.24,
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      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
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      "profit_factor": 0.79,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.318
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 145,
      "losses": 229,
      "expired": 36,
      "hit_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.219,
      "total_r": 89.82,
      "net_avg_r": 0.174,
      "net_total_r": 71.41,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -2.68,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0153,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.27,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.022,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.636,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.591,
      "hold_total_r": 260.88
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 416,
      "wins": 146,
      "losses": 233,
      "expired": 37,
      "hit_rate": 38.5,
      "avg_r": 0.211,
      "total_r": 87.82,
      "net_avg_r": 0.166,
      "net_total_r": 69.08,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -2.68,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0146,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.26,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.016,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.628,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.583,
      "hold_total_r": 261.2
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3100,
      "wins": 1500,
      "losses": 1513,
      "expired": 87,
      "hit_rate": 49.8,
      "avg_r": 0.094,
      "total_r": 290.84,
      "net_avg_r": 0.044,
      "net_total_r": 135.12,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -4.32,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0058,
      "median_net_r": -0.047,
      "profit_factor": 1.08,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.074,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.324,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.274,
      "hold_total_r": 1004.21
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 808,
      "wins": 275,
      "losses": 444,
      "expired": 89,
      "hit_rate": 38.2,
      "avg_r": 0.2,
      "total_r": 161.39,
      "net_avg_r": 0.155,
      "net_total_r": 125.37,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -3.24,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0125,
      "median_net_r": -1.029,
      "profit_factor": 1.25,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.008,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.518,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.473,
      "hold_total_r": 418.22
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7071,
      "wins": 3424,
      "losses": 3427,
      "expired": 220,
      "hit_rate": 50.0,
      "avg_r": 0.107,
      "total_r": 758.1,
      "net_avg_r": 0.058,
      "net_total_r": 413.25,
      "best_r": 4.42,
      "worst_r": -5.71,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0073,
      "median_net_r": -0.043,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.054,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.367,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.318,
      "hold_total_r": 2595.57
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 223,
      "win_rate": 54.4,
      "avg_r": 0.18,
      "total_r": 73.82,
      "net_avg_r": 0.135,
      "net_total_r": 55.41,
      "best_r": 5.09,
      "worst_r": -2.51,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.03,
      "median_net_r": 0.091,
      "profit_factor": 1.35,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.012
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 210,
      "win_rate": 51.2,
      "avg_r": 0.357,
      "total_r": 146.41,
      "net_avg_r": 0.312,
      "net_total_r": 128.0,
      "best_r": 6.73,
      "worst_r": -2.51,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0401,
      "median_net_r": 0.057,
      "profit_factor": 1.64,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.091
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 180,
      "win_rate": 43.9,
      "avg_r": 0.498,
      "total_r": 203.99,
      "net_avg_r": 0.453,
      "net_total_r": 185.58,
      "best_r": 8.65,
      "worst_r": -2.68,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0335,
      "median_net_r": -1.029,
      "profit_factor": 1.73,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.143
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 410,
      "wins": 159,
      "win_rate": 38.8,
      "avg_r": 0.636,
      "total_r": 260.88,
      "net_avg_r": 0.591,
      "net_total_r": 242.47,
      "best_r": 12.87,
      "worst_r": -2.68,
      "avg_hold_days": 17.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0339,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.87,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.202
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16631.01,
        "total_return_pct": 66.3,
        "cagr_pct": 28.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 11.4,
        "sharpe": 1.64,
        "trades": 208,
        "win_rate": 43.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 31.88,
        "best_trade_r": 4.97,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.68,
        "best_trade_pnl": 416.06,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -317.16,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 115,
          "target": 83,
          "time": 10
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 4.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 50.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24534.22,
        "total_return_pct": 145.3,
        "cagr_pct": 56.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 2.27,
        "trades": 145,
        "win_rate": 41.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 100.24,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2590.33,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 81,
          "time": 64
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 61.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 27.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24534.22,
        "total_return_pct": 145.3,
        "cagr_pct": 56.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 2.27,
        "trades": 145,
        "win_rate": 41.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 100.24,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2590.33,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 81,
          "time": 64
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 61.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 27.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19420.09,
        "total_return_pct": 94.2,
        "cagr_pct": 39.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.4,
        "sharpe": 1.64,
        "trades": 143,
        "win_rate": 37.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 65.87,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.33,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1898.62,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -198.52,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 84,
          "time": 59
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 31.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 29.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20550.5,
        "total_return_pct": 105.5,
        "cagr_pct": 43.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8,
        "sharpe": 1.95,
        "trades": 100,
        "win_rate": 40.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 105.5,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2100.85,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -317.68,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 59,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 23.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24534.22,
        "total_return_pct": 145.3,
        "cagr_pct": 56.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 2.27,
        "trades": 145,
        "win_rate": 41.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 100.24,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2590.33,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -265.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 81,
          "time": 64
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 61.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 27.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
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        "final_equity": 12864.91,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 8.9,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 47.75,
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          "stop": 35,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -2.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 21.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-17",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "final_equity": 10750.78,
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          "stop": 16,
          "time": 11
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-24",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 22403.49,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 17.9
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          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 75,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
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        "final_equity": 22011.61,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.6,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 104.45,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 65,
          "time": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 13.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24306.81,
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        "cagr_pct": 55.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.3,
        "sharpe": 2.15,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 98.67,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -272.9,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 83,
          "time": 62
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 22.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 26777.45,
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        "cagr_pct": 63.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.3,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 117.32,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
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          "stop": 78,
          "time": 65
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24498.4,
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        "cagr_pct": 56.5,
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        "sharpe": 2.14,
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        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -260.65,
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          "stop": 78,
          "time": 64
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 24406.71,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.6,
        "sharpe": 2.12,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 100.75,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 31.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20328.75,
        "total_return_pct": 103.3,
        "cagr_pct": 42.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.6,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 50.14,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
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          "time": 79
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 240,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 20.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19908.53,
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        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
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          "stop": 127,
          "time": 74
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 104,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 22.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.3,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 35.91,
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          "time": 67
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 61,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
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          {
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          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 8.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 9938.14,
        "total_return_pct": -0.6,
        "cagr_pct": -0.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.6,
        "sharpe": 0.04,
        "trades": 112,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": -0.55,
        "best_trade_r": 6.59,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.11,
        "best_trade_pnl": 380.1,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -149.12,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 73,
          "time": 39
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.2,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 1.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": -10.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-31",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 26777.45,
        "total_return_pct": 167.8,
        "cagr_pct": 63.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.3,
        "sharpe": 2.32,
        "trades": 143,
        "win_rate": 42.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 117.32,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2608.47,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -284.88,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 78,
          "time": 65
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 65.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 26457.07,
        "total_return_pct": 164.6,
        "cagr_pct": 62.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 11.3,
        "sharpe": 2.52,
        "trades": 175,
        "win_rate": 38.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 94.04,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2954.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -311.09,
        "avg_hold_days": 13.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 79,
          "stop": 50,
          "time": 46
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 36.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 66.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 17.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 28007.86,
        "total_return_pct": 180.1,
        "cagr_pct": 67.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.3,
        "sharpe": 2.42,
        "trades": 146,
        "win_rate": 41.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 123.34,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2728.33,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -297.97,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 9,
          "stop": 79,
          "time": 58
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 18.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 76.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 34.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 26777.45,
        "total_return_pct": 167.8,
        "cagr_pct": 63.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.3,
        "sharpe": 2.32,
        "trades": 143,
        "win_rate": 42.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 117.32,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2608.47,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -284.88,
        "avg_hold_days": 18.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 78,
          "time": 65
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 65.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 30062.79,
        "total_return_pct": 200.6,
        "cagr_pct": 73.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 11.7,
        "sharpe": 2.78,
        "trades": 150,
        "win_rate": 42.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 133.75,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.79,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2969.86,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -317.87,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.6,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 61,
          "time": 39,
          "trailing_stop": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.6,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 24.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 78.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2024-07-01",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
        "lookback": "6m",
        "lookback_label": "6 months",
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        "exit_reasons": {
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        },
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          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
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          }
        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
          {
            "date": "2025-12-31",
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          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-02",
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            "date": "2026-01-05",
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            "date": "2026-01-06",
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            "return_pct": 27.03
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            "return_pct": 32.1
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            "equity": 13550.58,
            "return_pct": 35.51
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            "equity": 13670.78,
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            "equity": 13622.28,
            "return_pct": 36.22
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            "return_pct": 37.45
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            "return_pct": 37.74
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            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "equity": 13397.16,
            "return_pct": 33.97
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            "date": "2026-05-18",
            "equity": 13257.94,
            "return_pct": 32.58
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            "equity": 13236.82,
            "return_pct": 32.37
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            "date": "2026-05-20",
            "equity": 12926.28,
            "return_pct": 29.26
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            "equity": 12884.6,
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            "equity": 12977.82,
            "return_pct": 29.78
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            "equity": 12838.68,
            "return_pct": 28.39
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            "return_pct": 29.06
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            "return_pct": 29.27
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            "equity": 12872.22,
            "return_pct": 28.72
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            "equity": 12970.76,
            "return_pct": 29.71
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            "equity": 12977.54,
            "return_pct": 29.78
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
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            "return_pct": 29.62
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            "return_pct": 29.25
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
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            "return_pct": 30.14
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-10",
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            "return_pct": 29.47
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            "date": "2026-06-11",
            "equity": 13026.05,
            "return_pct": 30.26
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            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "equity": 13027.29,
            "return_pct": 30.27
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            "date": "2026-06-15",
            "equity": 13007.81,
            "return_pct": 30.08
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-16",
            "equity": 12965.93,
            "return_pct": 29.66
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-17",
            "equity": 13008.22,
            "return_pct": 30.08
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-18",
            "equity": 12979.33,
            "return_pct": 29.79
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-22",
            "equity": 13022.59,
            "return_pct": 30.23
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-23",
            "equity": 12987.76,
            "return_pct": 29.88
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-24",
            "equity": 13020.94,
            "return_pct": 30.21
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-25",
            "equity": 13053.69,
            "return_pct": 30.54
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "equity": 13248.16,
            "return_pct": 32.48
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-29",
            "equity": 13254.11,
            "return_pct": 32.54
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-30",
            "equity": 13248.58,
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            "date": "2026-05-21",
            "equity": 16735.84,
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            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "equity": 16801.64,
            "return_pct": 68.02
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            "date": "2026-05-26",
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            "return_pct": 69.13
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            "date": "2026-05-28",
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            "return_pct": 70.46
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            "return_pct": 70.92
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            "date": "2026-06-03",
            "equity": 16995.43,
            "return_pct": 69.95
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            "date": "2026-06-04",
            "equity": 17059.65,
            "return_pct": 70.6
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "equity": 16619.35,
            "return_pct": 66.19
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            "date": "2026-06-08",
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            "return_pct": 66.57
          },
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
            "equity": 16608.08,
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            "date": "2026-06-10",
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            "date": "2026-06-16",
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            "date": "2026-06-17",
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            "date": "2026-06-18",
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            "date": "2026-06-22",
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            "date": "2026-06-23",
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            "date": "2026-06-24",
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            "date": "2026-06-30",
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            "date": "2026-07-02",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
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        ],
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
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            "date": "2026-06-08",
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            "date": "2026-06-09",
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            "date": "2026-06-10",
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            "date": "2026-06-12",
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-02",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
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        },
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          {
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 33.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2025-12-31",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02",
        "equity_curve": [
          {
            "date": "2025-12-31",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-05",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-06",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2026-01-07",
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      },
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            "date": "2026-07-01",
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-02",
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    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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      "primary_prob": 26.84,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 8.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.712164,
      "raw_level_count": 171,
      "gate_level_count": 171,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.034308,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "REGN",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 80.267559,
      "strategy_rank": 72.839126,
      "rr": 1.566306,
      "primary_prob": 36.03,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 83,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.349458,
      "raw_level_count": 68,
      "gate_level_count": 68,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.034132,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ROST",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 84.169454,
      "strategy_rank": 65.692811,
      "rr": 1.014244,
      "primary_prob": 34.18,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 27.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 17,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.521366,
      "raw_level_count": 82,
      "gate_level_count": 82,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.960507,
      "hold30_r": 0.104377
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RTX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 86.733556,
      "strategy_rank": 67.754646,
      "rr": 1.245,
      "primary_prob": 26.26,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 13,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.867501,
      "raw_level_count": 87,
      "gate_level_count": 87,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.192968,
      "hold30_r": 2.34066
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SLB",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 85.953177,
      "strategy_rank": 79.955878,
      "rr": 1.724675,
      "primary_prob": 31.97,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 16,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.587012,
      "raw_level_count": 70,
      "gate_level_count": 70,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.047444,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.219621,
      "strategy_rank": 98.719586,
      "rr": 0.763652,
      "primary_prob": 37.91,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.145478,
      "raw_level_count": 136,
      "gate_level_count": 136,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.74154,
      "hold30_r": 2.601969
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TER",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.77369,
      "strategy_rank": 98.273952,
      "rr": 0.926181,
      "primary_prob": 32.32,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 4.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.389271,
      "raw_level_count": 97,
      "gate_level_count": 97,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.906939,
      "hold30_r": 3.185192
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 93.199554,
      "strategy_rank": 87.364271,
      "rr": 1.667633,
      "primary_prob": 20.49,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 31.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 23,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.50145,
      "raw_level_count": 118,
      "gate_level_count": 118,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.635937,
      "hold30_r": 1.548927
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ULTA",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.051282,
      "strategy_rank": 78.826331,
      "rr": 1.646655,
      "primary_prob": 34.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 122,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.469983,
      "raw_level_count": 58,
      "gate_level_count": 58,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.606422,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.655518,
      "strategy_rank": 96.524269,
      "rr": 0.722915,
      "primary_prob": 39.53,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.084372,
      "raw_level_count": 214,
      "gate_level_count": 214,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.024425,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VTRS",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.966555,
      "strategy_rank": 79.695165,
      "rr": 0.943723,
      "primary_prob": 47.16,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 6.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.415584,
      "raw_level_count": 58,
      "gate_level_count": 58,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.040816,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.665552,
      "strategy_rank": 99.26533,
      "rr": 1.211701,
      "primary_prob": 23.46,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 0.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.817552,
      "raw_level_count": 148,
      "gate_level_count": 148,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.191141,
      "hold30_r": 3.130897
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.963211,
      "strategy_rank": 66.045104,
      "rr": 0.92554,
      "primary_prob": 32.14,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.38831,
      "raw_level_count": 101,
      "gate_level_count": 101,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.869121,
      "hold30_r": -1.005719
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XOM",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.189521,
      "strategy_rank": 73.544233,
      "rr": 1.999891,
      "primary_prob": 24.66,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 1.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.999836,
      "raw_level_count": 73,
      "gate_level_count": 73,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.050102,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GEV",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.209588,
      "strategy_rank": 95.311116,
      "rr": 1.106812,
      "primary_prob": 29.76,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 12,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.660217,
      "raw_level_count": 112,
      "gate_level_count": 112,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.078424,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WBD",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.216276,
      "strategy_rank": 72.855954,
      "rr": 1.917275,
      "primary_prob": 30.55,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 48,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.875912,
      "raw_level_count": 110,
      "gate_level_count": 110,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.155088,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +73.3% CAGR, Sharpe 2.78, max drawdown -11.7%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.59R net/trade vs +0.17R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +56.6% vs +28.9% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 6 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.32R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.12R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.22R over 192 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +108.7 points (+145.3% vs +36.6%), max drawdown \u221213.2%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.20R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 2.27 vs 2.27, CAGR +56.6% vs +56.6%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.95 vs 2.27, drawdown 15.8% vs 13.2%, CAGR +43.3% vs +56.6%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.21 vs 2.27, drawdown 10.9% vs 13.2%, CAGR +49.6% vs +56.6%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.32 vs 2.27, drawdown 13.3% vs 13.2%, CAGR +63.6% vs +56.6%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}