{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-12T20:47:45.570330+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 119231,
  "qualified": 676,
  "params": {
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    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "production_control",
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
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    "wins": 234,
    "losses": 362,
    "expired": 80,
    "hit_rate": 39.3,
    "avg_r": 0.277,
    "total_r": 186.93,
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    "net_total_r": 155.15,
    "best_r": 8.85,
    "worst_r": -3.38,
    "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0186,
    "median_net_r": -1.029,
    "profit_factor": 1.39,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.066
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  "overall_all": {
    "total": 119231,
    "wins": 49004,
    "losses": 66732,
    "expired": 3495,
    "hit_rate": 42.3,
    "avg_r": -0.028,
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    "profit_factor": 0.87,
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 234,
      "losses": 362,
      "expired": 80,
      "hit_rate": 39.3,
      "avg_r": 0.277,
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  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
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      "expired": 32,
      "hit_rate": 39.2,
      "avg_r": 0.284,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 234,
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      "expired": 80,
      "hit_rate": 39.3,
      "avg_r": 0.277,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 1146,
      "wins": 378,
      "losses": 646,
      "expired": 122,
      "hit_rate": 36.9,
      "avg_r": 0.189,
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      "median_net_r": -1.036,
      "profit_factor": 1.22,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.022
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1706,
      "wins": 561,
      "losses": 963,
      "expired": 182,
      "hit_rate": 36.8,
      "avg_r": 0.182,
      "total_r": 311.16,
      "net_avg_r": 0.132,
      "net_total_r": 225.15,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0107,
      "median_net_r": -1.038,
      "profit_factor": 1.21,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.023
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 2344,
      "wins": 745,
      "losses": 1348,
      "expired": 251,
      "hit_rate": 35.6,
      "avg_r": 0.142,
      "total_r": 333.97,
      "net_avg_r": 0.091,
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      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
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      "profit_factor": 1.14,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.061
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 8325,
      "wins": 2194,
      "losses": 5254,
      "expired": 877,
      "hit_rate": 29.5,
      "avg_r": -0.034,
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  ],
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      "wins": 234,
      "losses": 362,
      "expired": 80,
      "hit_rate": 39.3,
      "avg_r": 0.277,
      "total_r": 186.93,
      "net_avg_r": 0.23,
      "net_total_r": 155.15,
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      "worst_r": -3.38,
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      "net_r_per_day": 0.0186,
      "median_net_r": -1.029,
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      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.627,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.58,
      "hold_total_r": 424.09
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 677,
      "wins": 234,
      "losses": 363,
      "expired": 80,
      "hit_rate": 39.2,
      "avg_r": 0.274,
      "total_r": 185.73,
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      "median_net_r": -1.029,
      "profit_factor": 1.38,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.064,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.625,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.578,
      "hold_total_r": 422.88
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3749,
      "wins": 1735,
      "losses": 1896,
      "expired": 118,
      "hit_rate": 47.8,
      "avg_r": 0.128,
      "total_r": 479.33,
      "net_avg_r": 0.076,
      "net_total_r": 283.84,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
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      "median_net_r": -1.019,
      "profit_factor": 1.13,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.05,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.379,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.327,
      "hold_total_r": 1421.65
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 1505,
      "wins": 495,
      "losses": 835,
      "expired": 175,
      "hit_rate": 37.2,
      "avg_r": 0.2,
      "total_r": 300.96,
      "net_avg_r": 0.153,
      "net_total_r": 230.52,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.012,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 1.25,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.0,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.618,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.572,
      "hold_total_r": 930.67
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7625,
      "wins": 3403,
      "losses": 3932,
      "expired": 290,
      "hit_rate": 46.4,
      "avg_r": 0.12,
      "total_r": 911.54,
      "net_avg_r": 0.069,
      "net_total_r": 523.68,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0078,
      "median_net_r": -1.024,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.42,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.369,
      "hold_total_r": 3203.24
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 380,
      "win_rate": 56.2,
      "avg_r": 0.172,
      "total_r": 116.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.125,
      "net_total_r": 84.56,
      "best_r": 3.58,
      "worst_r": -1.61,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0277,
      "median_net_r": 0.127,
      "profit_factor": 1.37,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.005
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 349,
      "win_rate": 51.6,
      "avg_r": 0.357,
      "total_r": 241.49,
      "net_avg_r": 0.31,
      "net_total_r": 209.7,
      "best_r": 5.85,
      "worst_r": -1.61,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0392,
      "median_net_r": 0.011,
      "profit_factor": 1.68,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.126
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 307,
      "win_rate": 45.4,
      "avg_r": 0.542,
      "total_r": 366.34,
      "net_avg_r": 0.495,
      "net_total_r": 334.56,
      "best_r": 9.86,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0358,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.86,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.221
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 676,
      "wins": 275,
      "win_rate": 40.7,
      "avg_r": 0.627,
      "total_r": 424.09,
      "net_avg_r": 0.58,
      "net_total_r": 392.31,
      "best_r": 11.51,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0323,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.91,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.218
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16177.86,
        "total_return_pct": 61.8,
        "cagr_pct": 25.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5,
        "sharpe": 1.3,
        "trades": 220,
        "win_rate": 40.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 28.08,
        "best_trade_r": 8.85,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.86,
        "best_trade_pnl": 990.78,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -184.37,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 125,
          "target": 76,
          "time": 19
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 9.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 40.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19629.47,
        "total_return_pct": 96.3,
        "cagr_pct": 38.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.6,
        "trades": 163,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 59.08,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.52,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1387.26,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -209.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 29.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19629.47,
        "total_return_pct": 96.3,
        "cagr_pct": 38.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.6,
        "trades": 163,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 59.08,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.52,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1387.26,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -209.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 29.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14424.99,
        "total_return_pct": 44.2,
        "cagr_pct": 19.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.8,
        "sharpe": 0.92,
        "trades": 161,
        "win_rate": 32.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 27.48,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 967.66,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -224.29,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 106,
          "time": 55
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 36.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 6.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 25.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15465.77,
        "total_return_pct": 54.7,
        "cagr_pct": 23.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.9,
        "sharpe": 1.21,
        "trades": 118,
        "win_rate": 33.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 46.32,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.13,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1185.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -167.94,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 77,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 41.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 20.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 19.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-30"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19629.47,
        "total_return_pct": 96.3,
        "cagr_pct": 38.1,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.6,
        "trades": 163,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 59.08,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.52,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1387.26,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -209.62,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 29.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14264.89,
        "total_return_pct": 42.6,
        "cagr_pct": 20.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 6.0,
        "sharpe": 1.98,
        "trades": 58,
        "win_rate": 56.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 73.53,
        "best_trade_r": 5.34,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.0,
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          "stop": 25,
          "time": 33
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.8,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 12.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-13",
        "end_date": "2024-06-25"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "final_equity": 12892.95,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 87.67,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -93.42,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 13,
          "time": 20
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.8,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 11.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 2.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-13",
        "end_date": "2024-06-25"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14696.29,
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        "cagr_pct": 20.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.7,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 30.1,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
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          "stop": 105,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 16.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 26.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
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        "final_equity": 17566.64,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 20.3,
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        "trades": 170,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 44.51,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -194.61,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 111,
          "time": 59
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 4.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 25.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15792.64,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.5,
        "sharpe": 1.11,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 38.11,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -175.96,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 43.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 20.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-07-31"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19163.35,
        "total_return_pct": 91.6,
        "cagr_pct": 36.5,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.1,
        "sharpe": 1.5,
        "trades": 167,
        "win_rate": 32.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.87,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -204.64,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 109,
          "time": 58
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 35.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 28.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19189.02,
        "total_return_pct": 91.9,
        "cagr_pct": 36.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 1.5,
        "trades": 168,
        "win_rate": 33.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.7,
        "best_trade_r": 9.36,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -213.09,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 108,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20694.4,
        "total_return_pct": 106.9,
        "cagr_pct": 41.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.5,
        "sharpe": 1.64,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 62.54,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -229.81,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 108,
          "time": 63
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20548.25,
        "total_return_pct": 105.5,
        "cagr_pct": 41.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.4,
        "sharpe": 1.66,
        "trades": 168,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 62.79,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.13,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1339.68,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -245.99,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 107,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 22.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15380.73,
        "total_return_pct": 53.8,
        "cagr_pct": 17.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 36.5,
        "sharpe": 0.71,
        "trades": 283,
        "win_rate": 31.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 19.01,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.23,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1210.21,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -311.67,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 185,
          "time": 98
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 395,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -26.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 83.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 14.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15672.12,
        "total_return_pct": 56.7,
        "cagr_pct": 18.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 37.3,
        "sharpe": 0.73,
        "trades": 280,
        "win_rate": 31.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 20.26,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.23,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -323.21,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 183,
          "time": 97
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 224,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -23.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 83.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 12.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15629.16,
        "total_return_pct": 56.3,
        "cagr_pct": 18.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 35.7,
        "sharpe": 0.73,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 22.16,
        "best_trade_r": 9.82,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.23,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -328.32,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 166,
          "time": 88
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 100,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -1.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -26.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 103.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11431.59,
        "total_return_pct": 14.3,
        "cagr_pct": 5.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 14.3,
        "sharpe": 0.51,
        "trades": 127,
        "win_rate": 34.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 11.27,
        "best_trade_r": 8.89,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.77,
        "best_trade_pnl": 621.88,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -195.69,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 79,
          "time": 48
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 16.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 14.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 1.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-07-17"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19189.02,
        "total_return_pct": 91.9,
        "cagr_pct": 36.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 1.5,
        "trades": 168,
        "win_rate": 33.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.7,
        "best_trade_r": 9.36,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1244.84,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -213.09,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 108,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14800.75,
        "total_return_pct": 48.0,
        "cagr_pct": 20.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.0,
        "sharpe": 1.01,
        "trades": 213,
        "win_rate": 30.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 22.54,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.24,
        "best_trade_pnl": 907.0,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -152.19,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 81,
          "stop": 81,
          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 4,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 18.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.7
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19132.09,
        "total_return_pct": 91.3,
        "cagr_pct": 36.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.6,
        "sharpe": 1.5,
        "trades": 169,
        "win_rate": 33.1,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.04,
        "best_trade_r": 10.81,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1234.95,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -212.39,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 8,
          "stop": 106,
          "time": 55
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 19189.02,
        "total_return_pct": 91.9,
        "cagr_pct": 36.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 1.5,
        "trades": 168,
        "win_rate": 33.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.7,
        "best_trade_r": 9.36,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.35,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1244.84,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -213.09,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 108,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 16960.9,
        "total_return_pct": 69.6,
        "cagr_pct": 28.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4,
        "sharpe": 1.28,
        "trades": 175,
        "win_rate": 33.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 39.78,
        "best_trade_r": 9.36,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.26,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1044.28,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -332.18,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 86,
          "time": 39,
          "trailing_stop": 50
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 10.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
        "lookback": "3y",
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        },
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
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        "equity_curve": [
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            "date": "2023-07-03",
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            "date": "2023-07-05",
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            "date": "2023-07-07",
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            "date": "2023-07-11",
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            "date": "2023-07-12",
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            "date": "2023-07-14",
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            "date": "2023-07-17",
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            "date": "2023-07-18",
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            "date": "2023-07-19",
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            "return_pct": 1.1
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            "return_pct": 0.94
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            "return_pct": 1.99
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            "return_pct": 4.31
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            "return_pct": 4.69
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            "equity": 10720.4,
            "return_pct": 7.2
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            "date": "2023-12-14",
            "equity": 10972.6,
            "return_pct": 9.73
          },
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            "date": "2023-12-15",
            "equity": 10998.9,
            "return_pct": 9.99
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-18",
            "equity": 11254.04,
            "return_pct": 12.54
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-19",
            "equity": 11598.89,
            "return_pct": 15.99
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-20",
            "equity": 11277.2,
            "return_pct": 12.77
          },
          {
            "date": "2023-12-21",
            "equity": 11625.89,
            "return_pct": 16.26
          },
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        ]
      },
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            "date": "2021-10-20",
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            "date": "2021-10-22",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-25",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-27",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-28",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-29",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2021-11-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-04",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2021-11-05",
            "equity": 10000.0,
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            "date": "2024-07-22",
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
  "sr_variant_diagnostics": {
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        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 1.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.309845,
      "raw_level_count": 149,
      "gate_level_count": 149,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.020496,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OKE",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 85.394582,
      "strategy_rank": 62.948945,
      "rr": 1.169322,
      "primary_prob": 24.92,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 2.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 3,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.753983,
      "raw_level_count": 40,
      "gate_level_count": 40,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.086581,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PCAR",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 80.212014,
      "strategy_rank": 66.195413,
      "rr": 0.736805,
      "primary_prob": 48.77,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 52.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 21,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.105208,
      "raw_level_count": 66,
      "gate_level_count": 66,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.071297,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PRU",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 84.452297,
      "strategy_rank": 64.827536,
      "rr": 1.438243,
      "primary_prob": 20.85,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 12.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.157365,
      "raw_level_count": 35,
      "gate_level_count": 35,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.355384,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.932862,
      "strategy_rank": 78.907293,
      "rr": 0.691219,
      "primary_prob": 48.05,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 39.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 31,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.036829,
      "raw_level_count": 83,
      "gate_level_count": 83,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.681797,
      "hold30_r": -1.618907
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QCOM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 91.519435,
      "strategy_rank": 88.000149,
      "rr": 1.004092,
      "primary_prob": 31.69,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 13.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 8,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.506138,
      "raw_level_count": 66,
      "gate_level_count": 66,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.039302,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.921084,
      "strategy_rank": 82.439588,
      "rr": 1.498267,
      "primary_prob": 32.48,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 1.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.2474,
      "raw_level_count": 66,
      "gate_level_count": 66,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055781,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SMCI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.704358,
      "strategy_rank": 98.987293,
      "rr": 1.726513,
      "primary_prob": 21.94,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 43.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 14,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.58977,
      "raw_level_count": 149,
      "gate_level_count": 149,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.01815,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.86808,
      "strategy_rank": 83.117527,
      "rr": 1.640244,
      "primary_prob": 42.74,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 65.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 18,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.460366,
      "raw_level_count": 80,
      "gate_level_count": 80,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.590743,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SW",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.819788,
      "strategy_rank": 84.977142,
      "rr": 1.081186,
      "primary_prob": 46.86,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 46,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.621779,
      "raw_level_count": 62,
      "gate_level_count": 62,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.055821,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPL",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.57715,
      "strategy_rank": 91.711878,
      "rr": 1.549006,
      "primary_prob": 41.14,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 49.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 15,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.323509,
      "raw_level_count": 80,
      "gate_level_count": 80,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.51044,
      "hold30_r": 0.585276
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 94.699647,
      "strategy_rank": 78.134641,
      "rr": 0.806554,
      "primary_prob": 35.88,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 1.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.209831,
      "raw_level_count": 87,
      "gate_level_count": 87,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.054905,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TXT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 83.392226,
      "strategy_rank": 71.559047,
      "rr": 1.581017,
      "primary_prob": 23.57,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 39.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 18,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.371526,
      "raw_level_count": 39,
      "gate_level_count": 39,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.499908,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "URI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 81.154299,
      "strategy_rank": 82.401429,
      "rr": 1.605681,
      "primary_prob": 32.53,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 86.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 30,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.408521,
      "raw_level_count": 89,
      "gate_level_count": 89,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.564974,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.339223,
      "strategy_rank": 81.22641,
      "rr": 1.785164,
      "primary_prob": 23.24,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 54.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 20,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.677746,
      "raw_level_count": 87,
      "gate_level_count": 87,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.497408,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.411072,
      "strategy_rank": 98.635929,
      "rr": 1.052832,
      "primary_prob": 29.46,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 9.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.579248,
      "raw_level_count": 133,
      "gate_level_count": 133,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.175501,
      "strategy_rank": 97.801229,
      "rr": 1.132566,
      "primary_prob": 26.27,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 4.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.698849,
      "raw_level_count": 103,
      "gate_level_count": 103,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.023855,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 92.697291,
      "strategy_rank": 72.57318,
      "rr": 0.682089,
      "primary_prob": 60.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 21,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.023133,
      "raw_level_count": 64,
      "gate_level_count": 64,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.288575,
      "strategy_rank": 91.801885,
      "rr": 0.971262,
      "primary_prob": 31.29,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 6.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.456892,
      "raw_level_count": 88,
      "gate_level_count": 88,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.928661,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 87.396938,
      "strategy_rank": 70.942839,
      "rr": 1.798273,
      "primary_prob": 20.44,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 41.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 21,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.69741,
      "raw_level_count": 48,
      "gate_level_count": 48,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.733503,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.103651,
      "strategy_rank": 70.626728,
      "rr": 1.596589,
      "primary_prob": 25.49,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 50.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 19,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.394883,
      "raw_level_count": 57,
      "gate_level_count": 57,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.290931,
      "strategy_rank": 96.341019,
      "rr": 1.148844,
      "primary_prob": 33.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 43.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 17,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.723265,
      "raw_level_count": 89,
      "gate_level_count": 89,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +28.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.28, max drawdown -21.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.23R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +38.1% vs +25.9% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 1 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.25R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 829 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.24R over 305 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +61.0 points (+96.3% vs +35.3%), max drawdown \u221218.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.22R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.60, CAGR +38.1% vs +38.1%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.21 vs 1.60, drawdown 13.9% vs 18.8%, CAGR +23.5% vs +38.1%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.98 vs 1.60, drawdown 6.0% vs 18.8%, CAGR +20.0% vs +38.1%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.66 vs 1.60, drawdown 19.4% vs 18.8%, CAGR +41.2% vs +38.1%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}