{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T09:22:37.917391+00:00",
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  "candidates": 202765,
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    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "explicit_target_ladder",
    "range_factor_lookback": 504,
    "range_factor_min_log": 1.0,
    "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183,
    "structural_overlay_weight": null,
    "structural_overlay_source_variant": null,
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": null
  },
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    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
    "total": 1086,
    "wins": 379,
    "losses": 591,
    "expired": 116,
    "hit_rate": 39.1,
    "avg_r": 0.255,
    "total_r": 276.76,
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    "net_total_r": 226.56,
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    "worst_r": -3.38,
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    "profit_factor": 1.34,
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  "overall_all": {
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    "hit_rate": 41.9,
    "avg_r": -0.04,
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    "long": {
      "total": 1086,
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      "hit_rate": 39.1,
      "avg_r": 0.255,
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    {
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      "wins": 379,
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      "hit_rate": 39.1,
      "avg_r": 0.255,
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      "hit_rate": 36.0,
      "avg_r": 0.152,
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      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0088,
      "median_net_r": -1.037,
      "profit_factor": 1.16,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 2772,
      "wins": 873,
      "losses": 1611,
      "expired": 288,
      "hit_rate": 35.1,
      "avg_r": 0.126,
      "total_r": 348.07,
      "net_avg_r": 0.075,
      "net_total_r": 209.25,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -4.21,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
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      "median_net_r": -1.04,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.077
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 3901,
      "wins": 1182,
      "losses": 2295,
      "expired": 424,
      "hit_rate": 34.0,
      "avg_r": 0.089,
      "total_r": 345.37,
      "net_avg_r": 0.038,
      "net_total_r": 146.96,
      "best_r": 8.85,
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      "profit_factor": 1.06,
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    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 14588,
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      "hit_rate": 28.6,
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  ],
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    {
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      "wins": 379,
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      "expired": 116,
      "hit_rate": 39.1,
      "avg_r": 0.255,
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      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
      "net_total_r": 226.56,
      "best_r": 8.85,
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      "hold_avg_r": 0.631,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.585,
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    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 1093,
      "wins": 380,
      "losses": 596,
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      "hit_rate": 38.9,
      "avg_r": 0.25,
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      "hold_avg_r": 0.626,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.58,
      "hold_total_r": 684.08
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 6849,
      "wins": 3235,
      "losses": 3409,
      "expired": 205,
      "hit_rate": 48.7,
      "avg_r": 0.112,
      "total_r": 770.17,
      "net_avg_r": 0.061,
      "net_total_r": 418.96,
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      "worst_r": -5.16,
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      "net_r_per_day": 0.0078,
      "median_net_r": -0.061,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.061,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.354,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.303,
      "hold_total_r": 2425.86
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 2313,
      "wins": 770,
      "losses": 1279,
      "expired": 264,
      "hit_rate": 37.6,
      "avg_r": 0.2,
      "total_r": 462.35,
      "net_avg_r": 0.154,
      "net_total_r": 355.89,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0122,
      "median_net_r": -1.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.25,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.004,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.583,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.537,
      "hold_total_r": 1348.89
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 14696,
      "wins": 6827,
      "losses": 7359,
      "expired": 510,
      "hit_rate": 48.1,
      "avg_r": 0.114,
      "total_r": 1669.64,
      "net_avg_r": 0.064,
      "net_total_r": 936.93,
      "best_r": 8.85,
      "worst_r": -5.71,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.4,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0076,
      "median_net_r": -1.013,
      "profit_factor": 1.11,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.395,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345,
      "hold_total_r": 5798.82
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  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 1086,
      "wins": 603,
      "win_rate": 55.5,
      "avg_r": 0.175,
      "total_r": 190.16,
      "net_avg_r": 0.129,
      "net_total_r": 139.97,
      "best_r": 5.09,
      "worst_r": -2.51,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0285,
      "median_net_r": 0.115,
      "profit_factor": 1.36,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 1086,
      "wins": 559,
      "win_rate": 51.5,
      "avg_r": 0.357,
      "total_r": 387.9,
      "net_avg_r": 0.311,
      "net_total_r": 337.7,
      "best_r": 6.73,
      "worst_r": -2.51,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0395,
      "median_net_r": 0.031,
      "profit_factor": 1.67,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.112
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 1086,
      "wins": 487,
      "win_rate": 44.8,
      "avg_r": 0.525,
      "total_r": 570.33,
      "net_avg_r": 0.479,
      "net_total_r": 520.14,
      "best_r": 9.86,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 13.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0349,
      "median_net_r": -1.027,
      "profit_factor": 1.81,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.191
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 1086,
      "wins": 434,
      "win_rate": 40.0,
      "avg_r": 0.631,
      "total_r": 684.97,
      "net_avg_r": 0.585,
      "net_total_r": 634.78,
      "best_r": 12.87,
      "worst_r": -3.38,
      "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0329,
      "median_net_r": -1.033,
      "profit_factor": 1.9,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.212
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 27052.49,
        "total_return_pct": 170.5,
        "cagr_pct": 28.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5,
        "sharpe": 1.48,
        "trades": 422,
        "win_rate": 42.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 40.41,
        "best_trade_r": 8.85,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.68,
        "best_trade_pnl": 990.78,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -515.9,
        "avg_hold_days": 10.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 236,
          "target": 157,
          "time": 29
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 9.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 47.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 50.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 47653.95,
        "total_return_pct": 376.5,
        "cagr_pct": 47.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.96,
        "trades": 303,
        "win_rate": 38.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 5031.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -516.31,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 178,
          "time": 125
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 53.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 61.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 27.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 47653.95,
        "total_return_pct": 376.5,
        "cagr_pct": 47.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.96,
        "trades": 303,
        "win_rate": 38.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
        "best_trade_pnl": 5031.32,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -516.31,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 178,
          "time": 125
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 53.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 61.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 27.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 28874.99,
        "total_return_pct": 188.7,
        "cagr_pct": 30.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.4,
        "sharpe": 1.34,
        "trades": 297,
        "win_rate": 35.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 63.55,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2822.98,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -295.18,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 184,
          "time": 113
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 95.7,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 6.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 47.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 31.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 29.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-06-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 32295.9,
        "total_return_pct": 223.0,
        "cagr_pct": 34.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.9,
        "sharpe": 1.62,
        "trades": 217,
        "win_rate": 36.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 102.75,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.13,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3301.56,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -499.25,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 135,
          "time": 82
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 20.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 42.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 23.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 47653.95,
        "total_return_pct": 376.5,
        "cagr_pct": 47.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 18.8,
        "sharpe": 1.96,
        "trades": 303,
        "win_rate": 38.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 124.27,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.12,
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            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 14.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": -2.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 3.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": -10.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 52815.5,
        "total_return_pct": 428.2,
        "cagr_pct": 51.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 2.0,
        "trades": 305,
        "win_rate": 38.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 140.38,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 5144.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -561.89,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 180,
          "time": 125
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 42.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 75.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 38710.74,
        "total_return_pct": 287.1,
        "cagr_pct": 40.4,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 24.0,
        "sharpe": 1.75,
        "trades": 385,
        "win_rate": 33.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 74.57,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4323.49,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -455.17,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 158,
          "stop": 131,
          "time": 96
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 4,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -5.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 18.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 77.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 66.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 17.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 54364.58,
        "total_return_pct": 443.6,
        "cagr_pct": 52.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.6,
        "sharpe": 2.03,
        "trades": 307,
        "win_rate": 37.8,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 144.51,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 5295.81,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -578.37,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 17,
          "stop": 177,
          "time": 113
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 41.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 85.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 34.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 52815.5,
        "total_return_pct": 428.2,
        "cagr_pct": 51.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 22.0,
        "sharpe": 2.0,
        "trades": 305,
        "win_rate": 38.7,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 140.38,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.76,
        "best_trade_pnl": 5144.91,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -561.89,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 180,
          "time": 125
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 10.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 41.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 42.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 75.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 50380.47,
        "total_return_pct": 403.8,
        "cagr_pct": 50.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4,
        "sharpe": 2.03,
        "trades": 321,
        "win_rate": 37.4,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 125.8,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.26,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4977.01,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -532.7,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 146,
          "time": 78,
          "trailing_stop": 97
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 94.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 42.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 36.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 78.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 35.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
    "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
    "strategies": [
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
        "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
    "runs": [
      {
        "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold",
        "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "ranking_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
        "lookback": "6m",
        "lookback_label": "6 months",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13158.33,
        "total_return_pct": 31.6,
        "cagr_pct": 72.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 6.8,
        "sharpe": 3.15,
        "trades": 31,
        "win_rate": 41.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 101.88,
        "best_trade_r": 12.87,
        "worst_trade_r": -1.79,
        "best_trade_pnl": 1389.22,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -142.57,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 18,
          "time": 13
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 9.2,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2025,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2026,
            "return_pct": 31.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2025-12-31",
        "end_date": "2026-07-02",
        "equity_curve": [
          {
            "date": "2025-12-31",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-05",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-06",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-07",
            "equity": 9990.34,
            "return_pct": -0.1
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-08",
            "equity": 10080.41,
            "return_pct": 0.8
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-09",
            "equity": 10127.43,
            "return_pct": 1.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-12",
            "equity": 10331.35,
            "return_pct": 3.31
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-13",
            "equity": 10442.28,
            "return_pct": 4.42
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-14",
            "equity": 10473.24,
            "return_pct": 4.73
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-15",
            "equity": 10541.56,
            "return_pct": 5.42
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-16",
            "equity": 10352.94,
            "return_pct": 3.53
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-20",
            "equity": 10400.77,
            "return_pct": 4.01
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-21",
            "equity": 10634.54,
            "return_pct": 6.35
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-22",
            "equity": 10760.66,
            "return_pct": 7.61
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-23",
            "equity": 10829.45,
            "return_pct": 8.29
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-26",
            "equity": 10863.78,
            "return_pct": 8.64
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-27",
            "equity": 10726.72,
            "return_pct": 7.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-28",
            "equity": 10630.33,
            "return_pct": 6.3
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-29",
            "equity": 10579.87,
            "return_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-01-30",
            "equity": 10480.93,
            "return_pct": 4.81
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-02",
            "equity": 10548.96,
            "return_pct": 5.49
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-03",
            "equity": 10786.74,
            "return_pct": 7.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-04",
            "equity": 10769.34,
            "return_pct": 7.69
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-05",
            "equity": 10763.99,
            "return_pct": 7.64
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-06",
            "equity": 10945.01,
            "return_pct": 9.45
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-09",
            "equity": 11000.63,
            "return_pct": 10.01
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-10",
            "equity": 11125.63,
            "return_pct": 11.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-11",
            "equity": 11261.89,
            "return_pct": 12.62
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-12",
            "equity": 11022.75,
            "return_pct": 10.23
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-13",
            "equity": 11186.58,
            "return_pct": 11.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-17",
            "equity": 11121.24,
            "return_pct": 11.21
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-18",
            "equity": 11250.11,
            "return_pct": 12.5
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-19",
            "equity": 11233.8,
            "return_pct": 12.34
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-20",
            "equity": 11183.73,
            "return_pct": 11.84
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-23",
            "equity": 11140.11,
            "return_pct": 11.4
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-24",
            "equity": 11289.91,
            "return_pct": 12.9
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-25",
            "equity": 11187.27,
            "return_pct": 11.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-26",
            "equity": 11174.05,
            "return_pct": 11.74
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "equity": 11258.34,
            "return_pct": 12.58
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-02",
            "equity": 11101.36,
            "return_pct": 11.01
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-03",
            "equity": 10941.99,
            "return_pct": 9.42
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-04",
            "equity": 10893.84,
            "return_pct": 8.94
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-05",
            "equity": 10814.01,
            "return_pct": 8.14
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "equity": 10825.58,
            "return_pct": 8.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-09",
            "equity": 10818.29,
            "return_pct": 8.18
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-10",
            "equity": 10780.23,
            "return_pct": 7.8
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-11",
            "equity": 10816.7,
            "return_pct": 8.17
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-12",
            "equity": 10867.59,
            "return_pct": 8.68
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "equity": 10842.97,
            "return_pct": 8.43
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-16",
            "equity": 10822.73,
            "return_pct": 8.23
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-17",
            "equity": 10894.72,
            "return_pct": 8.95
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-18",
            "equity": 10825.57,
            "return_pct": 8.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-19",
            "equity": 10774.0,
            "return_pct": 7.74
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "equity": 10629.15,
            "return_pct": 6.29
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-23",
            "equity": 10783.63,
            "return_pct": 7.84
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-24",
            "equity": 10841.03,
            "return_pct": 8.41
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-25",
            "equity": 10849.96,
            "return_pct": 8.5
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-26",
            "equity": 10803.24,
            "return_pct": 8.03
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "equity": 10777.43,
            "return_pct": 7.77
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-30",
            "equity": 10734.03,
            "return_pct": 7.34
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-31",
            "equity": 10804.49,
            "return_pct": 8.04
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-01",
            "equity": 10803.85,
            "return_pct": 8.04
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-02",
            "equity": 10852.53,
            "return_pct": 8.53
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-06",
            "equity": 10826.26,
            "return_pct": 8.26
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-07",
            "equity": 10805.89,
            "return_pct": 8.06
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-08",
            "equity": 11196.42,
            "return_pct": 11.96
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-09",
            "equity": 11295.33,
            "return_pct": 12.95
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "equity": 11362.99,
            "return_pct": 13.63
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-13",
            "equity": 11386.61,
            "return_pct": 13.87
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-14",
            "equity": 11588.18,
            "return_pct": 15.88
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-15",
            "equity": 11453.6,
            "return_pct": 14.54
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-16",
            "equity": 11576.0,
            "return_pct": 15.76
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "equity": 11760.49,
            "return_pct": 17.6
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-20",
            "equity": 11721.73,
            "return_pct": 17.22
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-21",
            "equity": 11710.94,
            "return_pct": 17.11
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-22",
            "equity": 11924.81,
            "return_pct": 19.25
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-23",
            "equity": 11975.78,
            "return_pct": 19.76
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "equity": 12323.93,
            "return_pct": 23.24
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-27",
            "equity": 12343.08,
            "return_pct": 23.43
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-28",
            "equity": 12141.75,
            "return_pct": 21.42
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-29",
            "equity": 12236.87,
            "return_pct": 22.37
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-30",
            "equity": 12706.91,
            "return_pct": 27.07
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "equity": 12703.0,
            "return_pct": 27.03
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-04",
            "equity": 12578.68,
            "return_pct": 25.79
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-05",
            "equity": 12826.66,
            "return_pct": 28.27
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-06",
            "equity": 13428.85,
            "return_pct": 34.29
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-07",
            "equity": 13209.56,
            "return_pct": 32.1
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "equity": 13550.58,
            "return_pct": 35.51
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        ]
      },
      {
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        ],
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
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            "date": "2021-11-03",
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      },
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            "equity": 19021.27,
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          {
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. The structural overlay appears only in its explicit research arm and changes ordering, not production qualification. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
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  "min_rr_sweep": null,
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      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 83,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.349458,
      "raw_level_count": 68,
      "gate_level_count": 68,
      "range_504_log": 0.932927,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.541937,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.034132,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ROST",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 84.169454,
      "strategy_rank": 65.692811,
      "production_rank": 71.851692,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.014244,
      "primary_prob": 34.18,
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        "range_grid"
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      "primary_strength": 27.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 17,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.521366,
      "raw_level_count": 82,
      "gate_level_count": 82,
      "range_504_log": 0.636143,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.889179,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.960507,
      "hold30_r": 0.104377
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RTX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 86.733556,
      "strategy_rank": 67.754646,
      "production_rank": 74.08095,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
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      "primary_prob": 26.26,
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      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 13,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.867501,
      "raw_level_count": 87,
      "gate_level_count": 87,
      "range_504_log": 0.772473,
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      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
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      "hold30_r": 2.34066
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SLB",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 85.953177,
      "strategy_rank": 79.955878,
      "production_rank": 81.954978,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.724675,
      "primary_prob": 31.97,
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        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 16,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.587012,
      "raw_level_count": 70,
      "gate_level_count": 70,
      "range_504_log": 0.61582,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.851173,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.047444,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STX",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.219621,
      "strategy_rank": 98.719586,
      "production_rank": 98.886264,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
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        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.145478,
      "raw_level_count": 136,
      "gate_level_count": 136,
      "range_504_log": 2.588814,
      "range_504_ratio": 13.313974,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.74154,
      "hold30_r": 2.601969
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TER",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.77369,
      "strategy_rank": 98.273952,
      "production_rank": 98.440532,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
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        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 4.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 9,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.389271,
      "raw_level_count": 97,
      "gate_level_count": 97,
      "range_504_log": 1.859102,
      "range_504_ratio": 6.417972,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.906939,
      "hold30_r": 3.185192
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TPR",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 93.199554,
      "strategy_rank": 87.364271,
      "production_rank": 89.309365,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.667633,
      "primary_prob": 20.49,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 31.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 23,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.50145,
      "raw_level_count": 118,
      "gate_level_count": 118,
      "range_504_log": 1.525513,
      "range_504_ratio": 4.597502,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.635937,
      "hold30_r": 1.548927
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ULTA",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.051282,
      "strategy_rank": 78.826331,
      "production_rank": 79.901315,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.646655,
      "primary_prob": 34.64,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 122,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.469983,
      "raw_level_count": 58,
      "gate_level_count": 58,
      "range_504_log": 0.838867,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.313744,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.606422,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.655518,
      "strategy_rank": 96.524269,
      "production_rank": 96.568019,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 0.722915,
      "primary_prob": 39.53,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.084372,
      "raw_level_count": 214,
      "gate_level_count": 214,
      "range_504_log": 1.958451,
      "range_504_ratio": 7.08834,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.024425,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VTRS",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 89.966555,
      "strategy_rank": 79.695165,
      "production_rank": 83.118962,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 0.943723,
      "primary_prob": 47.16,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 6.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.415584,
      "raw_level_count": 58,
      "gate_level_count": 58,
      "range_504_log": 0.939665,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.559124,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.040816,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.665552,
      "strategy_rank": 99.26533,
      "production_rank": 99.398737,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.211701,
      "primary_prob": 23.46,
      "primary_sources": [
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 0.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 1,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.817552,
      "raw_level_count": 148,
      "gate_level_count": 148,
      "range_504_log": 2.902267,
      "range_504_ratio": 18.215401,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.191141,
      "hold30_r": 3.130897
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.963211,
      "strategy_rank": 66.045104,
      "production_rank": 73.684473,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 0.92554,
      "primary_prob": 32.14,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 6,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.38831,
      "raw_level_count": 101,
      "gate_level_count": 101,
      "range_504_log": 0.809533,
      "range_504_ratio": 2.246858,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.869121,
      "hold30_r": -1.005719
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XOM",
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 90.189521,
      "strategy_rank": 73.544233,
      "production_rank": 79.092662,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.999891,
      "primary_prob": 24.66,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 1.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 2,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.999836,
      "raw_level_count": 73,
      "gate_level_count": 73,
      "range_504_log": 0.589886,
      "range_504_ratio": 1.803783,
      "range_factor_pass": false,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.050102,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GEV",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 96.209588,
      "strategy_rank": 95.311116,
      "production_rank": 95.610607,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.106812,
      "primary_prob": 29.76,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 12,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.660217,
      "raw_level_count": 112,
      "gate_level_count": 112,
      "range_504_log": 2.064219,
      "range_504_ratio": 7.879141,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.078424,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WBD",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 98.216276,
      "strategy_rank": 72.855954,
      "production_rank": 81.309395,
      "structural_overlay_pass": null,
      "structural_overlay_score": null,
      "structural_overlay_rr": null,
      "structural_overlay_sources": [],
      "structural_overlay_gate_level_count": 0,
      "rr": 1.917275,
      "primary_prob": 30.55,
      "primary_sources": [
        "pivot_point",
        "range_grid"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 100.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 48,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.875912,
      "raw_level_count": 110,
      "gate_level_count": 110,
      "range_504_log": 1.508085,
      "range_504_ratio": 4.518072,
      "range_factor_pass": true,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.155088,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +50.0% CAGR, Sharpe 2.03, max drawdown -21.4%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +47.9% vs +28.3% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 497 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +282.2 points (+376.5% vs +94.3%), max drawdown \u221218.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.96 vs 1.96, CAGR +47.9% vs +47.9%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.62 vs 1.96, drawdown 16.9% vs 18.8%, CAGR +34.2% vs +47.9%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.74 vs 1.96, drawdown 14.7% vs 18.8%, CAGR +35.6% vs +47.9%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.03 vs 1.96, drawdown 19.4% vs 18.8%, CAGR +52.4% vs +47.9%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}