{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-13T06:00:22.754740+00:00",
  "tickers": 506,
  "candidates": 121464,
  "qualified": 504,
  "params": {
    "step_days": 5,
    "horizon_days": 30,
    "min_lookback": 60,
    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
    "sr_variant": "legacy_range_grid_touch",
    "entry_start": null,
    "entry_end": "2024-06-30"
  },
  "activation": {
    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
    "min_rr": 2.0,
    "min_confidence": 0.0,
    "require_high_conviction": false,
    "exclude_conflicts": false,
    "exclude_neutral": true
  },
  "overall_qualified": {
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    "wins": 195,
    "losses": 267,
    "expired": 42,
    "hit_rate": 42.2,
    "avg_r": 0.317,
    "total_r": 159.61,
    "net_avg_r": 0.271,
    "net_total_r": 136.44,
    "best_r": 4.24,
    "worst_r": -5.16,
    "avg_hold_days": 11.7,
    "net_r_per_day": 0.0232,
    "median_net_r": -1.026,
    "profit_factor": 1.45,
    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136
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  "overall_all": {
    "total": 121464,
    "wins": 53213,
    "losses": 65889,
    "expired": 2362,
    "hit_rate": 44.7,
    "avg_r": -0.025,
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    "median_net_r": -1.033,
    "profit_factor": 0.87,
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  "by_direction": {
    "long": {
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 195,
      "losses": 267,
      "expired": 42,
      "hit_rate": 42.2,
      "avg_r": 0.317,
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    "short": {
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  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
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      "expired": 22,
      "hit_rate": 44.2,
      "avg_r": 0.38,
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      "net_total_r": 85.68,
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      "net_r_per_day": 0.0291,
      "median_net_r": -1.018,
      "profit_factor": 1.59,
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    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 195,
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      "expired": 42,
      "hit_rate": 42.2,
      "avg_r": 0.317,
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      "net_total_r": 136.44,
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      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
      "total": 802,
      "wins": 299,
      "losses": 433,
      "expired": 70,
      "hit_rate": 40.8,
      "avg_r": 0.276,
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      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.7,
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      "median_net_r": -1.03,
      "profit_factor": 1.38,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.094
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
      "total": 1179,
      "wins": 428,
      "losses": 649,
      "expired": 102,
      "hit_rate": 39.7,
      "avg_r": 0.241,
      "total_r": 284.29,
      "net_avg_r": 0.192,
      "net_total_r": 225.87,
      "best_r": 4.24,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
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      "median_net_r": -1.035,
      "profit_factor": 1.31,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.057
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
      "total": 1628,
      "wins": 556,
      "losses": 923,
      "expired": 149,
      "hit_rate": 37.6,
      "avg_r": 0.18,
      "total_r": 292.79,
      "net_avg_r": 0.129,
      "net_total_r": 210.48,
      "best_r": 4.24,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0108,
      "median_net_r": -1.038,
      "profit_factor": 1.2,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.008
    },
    {
      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
      "total": 6166,
      "wins": 1689,
      "losses": 3854,
      "expired": 623,
      "hit_rate": 30.5,
      "avg_r": -0.017,
      "total_r": -104.51,
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  ],
  "gate_ablation": [
    {
      "variant": "all_floors",
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      "wins": 195,
      "losses": 267,
      "expired": 42,
      "hit_rate": 42.2,
      "avg_r": 0.317,
      "total_r": 159.61,
      "net_avg_r": 0.271,
      "net_total_r": 136.44,
      "best_r": 4.24,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0232,
      "median_net_r": -1.026,
      "profit_factor": 1.45,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.639,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.593,
      "hold_total_r": 322.09
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
      "total": 531,
      "wins": 207,
      "losses": 282,
      "expired": 42,
      "hit_rate": 42.3,
      "avg_r": 0.346,
      "total_r": 183.63,
      "net_avg_r": 0.301,
      "net_total_r": 159.71,
      "best_r": 5.94,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0261,
      "median_net_r": -1.025,
      "profit_factor": 1.5,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.15,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.678,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.633,
      "hold_total_r": 360.13
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
      "total": 3765,
      "wins": 1811,
      "losses": 1872,
      "expired": 82,
      "hit_rate": 49.2,
      "avg_r": 0.126,
      "total_r": 473.61,
      "net_avg_r": 0.073,
      "net_total_r": 275.81,
      "best_r": 5.94,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.6,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0096,
      "median_net_r": -0.058,
      "profit_factor": 1.13,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.047,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.387,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.335,
      "hold_total_r": 1457.46
    },
    {
      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
      "total": 700,
      "wins": 275,
      "losses": 370,
      "expired": 55,
      "hit_rate": 42.6,
      "avg_r": 0.356,
      "total_r": 249.22,
      "net_avg_r": 0.311,
      "net_total_r": 217.94,
      "best_r": 5.94,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0261,
      "median_net_r": -1.024,
      "profit_factor": 1.53,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.163,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.689,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.645,
      "hold_total_r": 482.55
    },
    {
      "variant": "momentum_only",
      "total": 7729,
      "wins": 3793,
      "losses": 3776,
      "expired": 160,
      "hit_rate": 50.1,
      "avg_r": 0.114,
      "total_r": 881.88,
      "net_avg_r": 0.063,
      "net_total_r": 485.46,
      "best_r": 5.94,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 7.7,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0082,
      "median_net_r": -0.04,
      "profit_factor": 1.12,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.049,
      "hold_days": 30,
      "hold_avg_r": 0.428,
      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.376,
      "hold_total_r": 3306.21
    }
  ],
  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
  "time_exit_sweep": [
    {
      "hold_days": 5,
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 285,
      "win_rate": 56.5,
      "avg_r": 0.194,
      "total_r": 97.99,
      "net_avg_r": 0.148,
      "net_total_r": 74.81,
      "best_r": 3.78,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0327,
      "median_net_r": 0.134,
      "profit_factor": 1.43,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.012
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 10,
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 264,
      "win_rate": 52.4,
      "avg_r": 0.358,
      "total_r": 180.63,
      "net_avg_r": 0.312,
      "net_total_r": 157.45,
      "best_r": 5.76,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 8.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0391,
      "median_net_r": 0.103,
      "profit_factor": 1.67,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.124
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 21,
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 229,
      "win_rate": 45.4,
      "avg_r": 0.504,
      "total_r": 254.25,
      "net_avg_r": 0.458,
      "net_total_r": 231.07,
      "best_r": 13.71,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 14.0,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0328,
      "median_net_r": -1.021,
      "profit_factor": 1.77,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.15
    },
    {
      "hold_days": 30,
      "total": 504,
      "wins": 202,
      "win_rate": 40.1,
      "avg_r": 0.639,
      "total_r": 322.09,
      "net_avg_r": 0.593,
      "net_total_r": 298.91,
      "best_r": 27.38,
      "worst_r": -5.16,
      "avg_hold_days": 18.1,
      "net_r_per_day": 0.0328,
      "median_net_r": -1.032,
      "profit_factor": 1.9,
      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.171
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_sim": {
    "params": {
      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
      "max_positions": 10,
      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
      "hold_days": 30
    },
    "policies": [
      {
        "policy": "target",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 15451.76,
        "total_return_pct": 54.5,
        "cagr_pct": 23.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 15.2,
        "sharpe": 1.24,
        "trades": 200,
        "win_rate": 43.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 27.26,
        "best_trade_r": 4.24,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 413.44,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -428.21,
        "avg_hold_days": 11.2,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 110,
          "target": 74,
          "time": 16
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 8.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 34.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 5.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "policy": "hold",
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21683.06,
        "total_return_pct": 116.8,
        "cagr_pct": 44.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.5,
        "sharpe": 1.76,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 36.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 74.41,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.16,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4287.19,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -550.83,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 96,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 53.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
  },
  "strategy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21683.06,
        "total_return_pct": 116.8,
        "cagr_pct": 44.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.5,
        "sharpe": 1.76,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 36.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 74.41,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.16,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4287.19,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -550.83,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 96,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 53.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10",
        "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 18018.77,
        "total_return_pct": 80.2,
        "cagr_pct": 32.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8,
        "sharpe": 1.45,
        "trades": 146,
        "win_rate": 32.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 54.92,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.16,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3930.14,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -549.72,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 93,
          "time": 53
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 11.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 31.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 23.0
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "raw_90_fixed10",
        "label": "Raw 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "raw",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 17956.55,
        "total_return_pct": 79.6,
        "cagr_pct": 33.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.1,
        "sharpe": 1.54,
        "trades": 115,
        "win_rate": 33.0,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 69.19,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.29,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3844.22,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -299.04,
        "avg_hold_days": 17.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 74,
          "time": 41
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 31.4,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 4.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 36.5
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 26.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual_80_fixed15",
        "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check",
        "ranking": "residual",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 15,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21683.06,
        "total_return_pct": 116.8,
        "cagr_pct": 44.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 17.5,
        "sharpe": 1.76,
        "trades": 157,
        "win_rate": 36.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 74.41,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.16,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4287.19,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -550.83,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.7,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 96,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 53.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
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        "final_equity": 12551.21,
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        "cagr_pct": 12.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 5.6,
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        "win_rate": 53.3,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 56.69,
        "best_trade_r": 4.49,
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          "stop": 21,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
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          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2024-06-10"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
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        ],
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          "stop": 8,
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        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-20",
        "end_date": "2023-12-15"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10",
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        "cutoff": 80.0,
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          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 14495.87,
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        "best_trade_r": 11.51,
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          "time": 51
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 12.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 2.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10",
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        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
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          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 50.0
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        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
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        "final_equity": 20044.95,
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        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
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          "stop": 98,
          "time": 56
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 6.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
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          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          },
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20166.11,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.5,
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        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -298.29,
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          "stop": 91,
          "time": 53
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 5.1
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 45.3
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20102.63,
        "total_return_pct": 101.0,
        "cagr_pct": 39.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1,
        "sharpe": 1.57,
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        "win_rate": 34.5,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 61.23,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -5.16,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -510.69,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 105,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 31.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21703.77,
        "total_return_pct": 117.0,
        "cagr_pct": 44.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1,
        "sharpe": 1.73,
        "trades": 163,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 71.8,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -609.41,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 33.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 22231.89,
        "total_return_pct": 122.3,
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        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.3,
        "sharpe": 1.73,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 75.51,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -624.24,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.6
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 33.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10",
        "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10",
        "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 22114.76,
        "total_return_pct": 121.1,
        "cagr_pct": 46.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.3,
        "sharpe": 1.73,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 75.25,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -621.07,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 101,
          "time": 60
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
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          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 32.6
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol70_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 70.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 70.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 12132.63,
        "total_return_pct": 21.3,
        "cagr_pct": 7.7,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 46.0,
        "sharpe": 0.4,
        "trades": 294,
        "win_rate": 27.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 7.25,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.5,
        "best_trade_pnl": 2394.45,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -152.15,
        "avg_hold_days": 14.9,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 205,
          "time": 89
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 315,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -1.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -41.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 59.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 30.8
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13021.52,
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        "cagr_pct": 10.6,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 45.7,
        "sharpe": 0.49,
        "trades": 287,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 10.53,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.5,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -151.69,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.1,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 197,
          "time": 90
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 172,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -1.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 28.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "highvol90_fixed10",
        "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10",
        "ranking": "high_vol",
        "cutoff": 90.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 13237.9,
        "total_return_pct": 32.4,
        "cagr_pct": 11.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 42.1,
        "sharpe": 0.52,
        "trades": 257,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 12.6,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -3.5,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -149.23,
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        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 178,
          "time": 79
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 57,
        "spy_return_pct": 8.8,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": -0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -40.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 27.4
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10",
        "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10",
        "ranking": "low_vol",
        "cutoff": 80.0,
        "filters": [
          {
            "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile",
            "cutoff": 80.0
          }
        ],
        "max_positions": 10,
        "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
        "risk_scale": null,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 11683.19,
        "total_return_pct": 16.8,
        "cagr_pct": 7.2,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2,
        "sharpe": 0.64,
        "trades": 109,
        "win_rate": 34.9,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 15.44,
        "best_trade_r": 8.62,
        "worst_trade_r": -2.77,
        "best_trade_pnl": 580.9,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -195.23,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 69,
          "time": 40
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 9.5,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2021,
            "return_pct": 0.3
          },
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 13.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 2.7
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": -0.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2021-12-28",
        "end_date": "2024-03-21"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
  },
  "exit_policy_variants": {
    "variants": [
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop",
        "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21703.77,
        "total_return_pct": 117.0,
        "cagr_pct": 44.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1,
        "sharpe": 1.73,
        "trades": 163,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 71.8,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4285.65,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -609.41,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 63.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 33.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "sma50",
        "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20278.7,
        "total_return_pct": 102.8,
        "cagr_pct": 40.3,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.6,
        "sharpe": 1.69,
        "trades": 184,
        "win_rate": 34.2,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 55.86,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 3681.75,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -542.93,
        "avg_hold_days": 12.8,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "sma50": 56,
          "stop": 80,
          "time": 48
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 40.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 44.9
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "low20",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break",
        "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21741.69,
        "total_return_pct": 117.4,
        "cagr_pct": 45.0,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1,
        "sharpe": 1.75,
        "trades": 164,
        "win_rate": 36.6,
        "avg_trade_pnl": 71.6,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
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        "best_trade_pnl": 4277.64,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -603.67,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.3,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "low20": 9,
          "stop": 98,
          "time": 57
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
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            "return_pct": -0.2
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
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          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 33.5
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "technical40",
        "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40",
        "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 21703.77,
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        "cagr_pct": 44.9,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1,
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        "trades": 163,
        "win_rate": 35.6,
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        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
        "worst_trade_r": -4.21,
        "best_trade_pnl": 4285.65,
        "worst_trade_pnl": -609.41,
        "avg_hold_days": 16.4,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 102,
          "time": 61
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
        "spy_return_pct": 35.3,
        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": -0.4
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 63.8
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 33.1
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      },
      {
        "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
        "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop",
        "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.",
        "hold_days": 30,
        "starting_capital": 10000.0,
        "final_equity": 20750.75,
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        "cagr_pct": 41.8,
        "max_drawdown_pct": 16.8,
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        "avg_trade_pnl": 64.76,
        "best_trade_r": 27.38,
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        "worst_trade_pnl": -604.82,
        "avg_hold_days": 15.0,
        "exit_reasons": {
          "stop": 79,
          "time": 39,
          "trailing_stop": 48
        },
        "skipped_book_full": 0,
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        "yearly_returns": [
          {
            "year": 2022,
            "return_pct": 0.9
          },
          {
            "year": 2023,
            "return_pct": 63.0
          },
          {
            "year": 2024,
            "return_pct": 26.2
          }
        ],
        "start_date": "2022-07-06",
        "end_date": "2024-08-07"
      }
    ],
    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
  },
  "portfolio_monitor": {
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      {
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        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold",
        "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold",
        "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.",
        "is_production": false
      },
      {
        "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3",
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        "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.",
        "is_production": true
      }
    ],
    "lookbacks": [
      {
        "lookback": "6m",
        "label": "6 months"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "1y",
        "label": "1 year"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "3y",
        "label": "3 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "5y",
        "label": "5 years"
      },
      {
        "lookback": "all",
        "label": "All history"
      }
    ],
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        "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.",
        "is_production": false,
        "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10",
        "exit_policy": "hold",
        "live_exit_mode": null,
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        },
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            "date": "2023-12-13",
            "equity": 9825.68,
            "return_pct": -1.74
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            "date": "2023-12-14",
            "equity": 10124.95,
            "return_pct": 1.25
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            "date": "2023-12-15",
            "equity": 10044.42,
            "return_pct": 0.44
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            "date": "2023-12-18",
            "equity": 10298.51,
            "return_pct": 2.99
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            "date": "2023-12-19",
            "equity": 10435.58,
            "return_pct": 4.36
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          {
            "date": "2023-12-20",
            "equity": 10155.78,
            "return_pct": 1.56
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          {
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        ]
      },
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            "date": "2021-10-25",
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            "date": "2021-10-26",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-27",
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            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-10-28",
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            "date": "2021-11-01",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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            "date": "2021-11-02",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
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          {
            "date": "2021-11-03",
            "equity": 10000.0,
            "return_pct": 0.0
          },
          {
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            "date": "2024-07-22",
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps."
  },
  "holdout": null,
  "min_rr_sweep": null,
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      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 32.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 49,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.92297,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.877952,
      "hold30_r": 2.481052
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TXT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 84.333333,
      "strategy_rank": 73.368145,
      "rr": 1.0724,
      "primary_prob": 30.31,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 16.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 24,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.6086,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.991291,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "URI",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 82.0,
      "strategy_rank": 83.34235,
      "rr": 0.927694,
      "primary_prob": 35.07,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 18.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 27,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.391541,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.886987,
      "hold30_r": 0.671828
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VLO",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.888889,
      "strategy_rank": 82.377433,
      "rr": 1.380748,
      "primary_prob": 21.83,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 11.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 17,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.071121,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.497408,
      "hold30_r": -1.450012
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VRT",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.444444,
      "strategy_rank": 98.713107,
      "rr": 1.219692,
      "primary_prob": 24.26,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 5.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 7,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.829538,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.022515,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VST",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 99.222222,
      "strategy_rank": 97.958881,
      "rr": 0.865593,
      "primary_prob": 34.96,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 7.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 10,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.298389,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.841738,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WAB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 93.111111,
      "strategy_rank": 74.058044,
      "rr": 0.73678,
      "primary_prob": 41.17,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 14.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 21,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.10517,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.070411,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WDC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 95.444444,
      "strategy_rank": 92.28783,
      "rr": 0.940722,
      "primary_prob": 31.65,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 3.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 4,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.411082,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 0.898121,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WFC",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.0,
      "strategy_rank": 72.608869,
      "rr": 1.096957,
      "primary_prob": 30.23,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 19.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 28,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.645435,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "target_hit",
      "net_r": 1.032187,
      "hold30_r": -1.143666
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WRB",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 88.666667,
      "strategy_rank": 72.24405,
      "rr": 1.555144,
      "primary_prob": 18.63,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 12.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 18,
      "primary_distance_atr": 2.332716,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.08326,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WSM",
      "date": "2024-06-25",
      "direction": "long",
      "qualified": false,
      "meets_core": false,
      "momentum_percentile": 97.444444,
      "strategy_rank": 96.581399,
      "rr": 1.149151,
      "primary_prob": 27.24,
      "primary_sources": [
        "volume_profile"
      ],
      "primary_strength": 11.0,
      "primary_rejection_count": 17,
      "primary_distance_atr": 1.723726,
      "raw_level_count": 20,
      "gate_level_count": 20,
      "outcome": "stop_hit",
      "net_r": -1.029207,
      "hold30_r": -1.0
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval": [
    {
      "signal": "vol_6m",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_12_1",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "trend_200",
      "weeks": 37,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "reversal_1m",
      "weeks": 43,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_6_1",
      "weeks": 39,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "mom_3_1",
      "weeks": 42,
      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
      "reliable": true
    },
    {
      "signal": "high_52w",
      "weeks": 35,
      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
      "reliable": true
    }
  ],
  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.",
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "production",
        "text": "Production monitor (All history): +41.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -16.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "exit",
        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.59R net/trade vs +0.27R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +44.8% vs +23.2% CAGR at similar drawdown."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.04R/trade and adds 27 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.26R/trade under the hold exit)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "gate",
        "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.05R/trade and adds 196 trades."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff",
        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.34R over 253 setups)."
      },
      {
        "topic": "benchmark",
        "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +81.5 points (+116.8% vs +35.3%), max drawdown \u221217.5%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "robustness",
        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.17R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
  },
  "research_recommendation": {
    "items": [
      {
        "topic": "capacity_15",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.76 vs 1.76, CAGR +44.8% vs +44.8%, skipped 0 vs 0."
      },
      {
        "topic": "cutoff_90",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.54 vs 1.76, drawdown 13.1% vs 17.5%, CAGR +33.0% vs +44.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "low_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.67 vs 1.76, drawdown 5.1% vs 17.5%, CAGR +15.1% vs +44.8%."
      },
      {
        "topic": "high_vol_overlay",
        "candidate": false,
        "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.73 vs 1.76, drawdown 19.1% vs 17.5%, CAGR +44.9% vs +44.8%."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only."
  }
}