Triggered by CNC showing "LONG (High Confidence)" with SHORT reasoning
and no long setup.
- A: recommendation action + reasoning are ticker-level and identical
on both setups; reasoning always matches the shown action
- B: recommended_action only picks a direction with a tradeable setup;
strong bias with no setup (e.g. price at ATH) → NEUTRAL with an
explanatory reason instead of a fake LONG_HIGH
- C: confidence is a directional-agreement model — opposing signals push
it below 50 (SHORT on a 92-technical/99-momentum stock ~0%, not 55%)
- D: fundamental score requires >=2 real metrics (market-cap-only no
longer yields a high score)
- E: RSI score peaks at healthy momentum (~60) and penalizes
overbought/oversold extremes instead of treating RSI 90 as maximal
- F: fundamentals chain merges fields across providers (FMP market cap
+ Finnhub P/E) instead of stopping at the first with any field
- NEUTRAL label: "No Clear Setup" (covers untradeable-bias case)
Scores recompute on next scan/scoring run; C and E shift score
distributions intentionally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Closes the feedback loop on R:R scanner signals:
- Nightly outcome_evaluator job replays unresolved setups against daily
OHLCV bars: target_hit / stop_hit / ambiguous (same-bar, counted as
loss) / expired after OUTCOME_EVALUATION_MAX_BARS (default 30)
- Migration 004: evaluated_at + outcome_date on trade_setups
- GET /trades/performance: hit rate, expectancy (avg R), total R with
breakdowns by direction, recommended action, and confidence bucket
- New Performance page (stat cards, breakdown tables, Evaluate Now,
methodology disclosure) wired into sidebar and mobile nav
- 17 new unit tests for evaluation logic and stats aggregation
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
dennisthiessen
Dennis Thiessen