Commit Graph
20 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessen fd21067a40 Fix S&P 500 universe parse so renames like BNY are discovered.
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Wikipedia no longer uses plain symbol table cells; parse exchange links and NyseSymbol templates, surface the list source in bootstrap results, and keep legacy cell parsing as a fallback.
2026-07-14 14:14:58 +02:00
dennisthiessen 644e81d1a3 Fix TypeScript type for system-events acknowledge mutation.
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2026-07-14 13:40:27 +02:00
dennisthiessen f59c0c3484 Add system alerts log with nav badge and Admin Alerts tab.
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Persist job and ingestion warnings/errors for 7 days, surface a dismissible top-nav badge, treat stale OHLCV as a warning (e.g. ticker renames), and show market bar age on the ticker freshness chip.
2026-07-14 13:38:04 +02:00
dennisthiessen 4730d19694 Add GTL price-traffic chart diagnostic 2026-07-13 12:08:10 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 da0bb3367e feat: company names for tickers (Alpaca backfill + subtle display)
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Store an optional company name on Ticker (migration 014) and backfill it from
Alpaca's asset list in a single Trading-API call for the whole universe — no
per-ticker fetch. Runs automatically at the end of universe bootstrap and via a
manual "Backfill Names" button (admin) / POST /admin/tickers/backfill-names.

The name ships on /tickers; a shared symbol→name map (useTickerNames) lets any view
show it without its own request. Displayed subtly next to the symbol — in the global
search, the ticker header, and as a small muted line under the symbol in Top Setups
and Open Trades (no extra column, truncated so it never widens the table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-01 10:50:40 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 1566b84379 feat: trailing-stop auto-exit for paper trades + close/digest alerts
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Applies the backtest-validated trailing stop to live paper trading, and surfaces
it transparently.

Exit (A):
- New paper-trade exit policy (paper_exit_mode=trailing, paper_trailing_pct=12),
  tunable in Admin → Paper-Trade Exit. resolve_open_trades runs a trailing stop
  (initial stop as floor, ratchets up from the peak; target ignored — the
  validated rule) and records close_reason (trailing|stop|target|manual; +migration
  013).
- list_trades enriches open trades with the live trailing-stop level + distance %.
  Open Trades panel shows the active tactic and a Trail Stop column.

Alerts (B):
- Daily digest now lists open trades with unrealized gain, trailing stop, and how
  far away it is.
- New "trade closed" alert: one summary per auto-close (trailing/target/stop, not
  manual) — direction, reason, days held, P&L abs+%/R — covering wins AND
  stop-loss losses. Deduped by trade id; toggle in Admin alerts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-30 18:48:05 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 c34f3cb1a4 redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable
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Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 14:46:38 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 a69557f5d8 add paper trading: mark a setup as taken, track open P&L, sell
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New paper_trades table (migration 007) + service/router. "Mark as taken" on each
setup card (shares prefilled from position sizing, entry from current price, both
editable) records a simulated trade. Overview gains an Open Trades table that
marks each position to the latest close — P&L in $, %, and R-multiples — with a
total unrealized P&L footer and a Sell button to close at the current price.
Closed trades are retained for future realized-P&L reporting.

Deploy: alembic upgrade (new paper_trades table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-16 06:33:56 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 b00e482258 add backtest report UI to the Track Record tab
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New BacktestPanel: shows qualified hit-rate/expectancy vs the all-setups baseline,
a by-direction breakdown, and the probability calibration table (predicted vs
realized, over-confident buckets flagged amber). Includes a "Run backtest" button
that triggers the job and a plain explanation of the method and its limits.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 20:16:12 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 c4f2673799 add market-regime guard (SPY trend) — inform + warn
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New market_regime_service computes a benchmark (SPY) trend from its 50/200-day
SMAs, cached in a SystemSetting and refreshed by a nightly job; GET /market/regime
exposes it. Dashboard shows a regime banner; setup cards flag a counter-trend
caution when a setup fights the regime (LONG in a bearish market / SHORT in a
bullish one). Informational only — nothing is suppressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 12:34:07 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 1951531453 add position-size calculator to the recommendation panel
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Risk-based sizing on each setup card: shares = floor((account × risk%) /
|entry − stop|), with position value and dollars-at-risk. Account size and
per-trade risk % are editable inline and persisted in localStorage. Flags when
a position would exceed the account (needs margin). Frontend-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 11:26:55 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 5d41ccac1c add Telegram alerts: qualified setups, S/R proximity, score drops, daily digest
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Closes the action loop — instead of polling the dashboard, the platform pushes
actionable signals to Telegram. New hourly 'alerts' job dispatches four
toggleable triggers, deduped via a new alert_log table (cooldown-based for
qualified/S-R/digest, watermark-based for score deterioration). Admin → Settings
gains a Telegram panel (write-only bot token, chat ID, per-trigger toggles, Send
Test). Credentials follow DB > env precedence (TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN / _CHAT_ID).

Backend: alert_service + AlertLog model + migration 005, scheduler job, admin
endpoints/schema. Frontend: AlertSettings panel, hooks, api, types.

Deploy: run alembic upgrade (new alert_log table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 19:42:18 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 da83f027e1 Drop over-progressed setups via live R:R; refresh trades on fetch
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Answers "why does a too-far-progressed setup still show": setups are only
recalculated by the scheduled R:R scan and manual fetch; at creation
entry == current price (0% progress), so over-progression is a
between-scans drift effect and must be judged at read time.

- /trades now attaches current_price (latest close per ticker).
- Qualification drops setups whose R:R recomputed from the current price
  falls below min_rr — i.e. price already ran toward target (reward
  consumed) or through the stop. Reuses the existing min_rr threshold
  instead of a separate progress %; far cleaner (a 3:1 is already ~1:1
  by 33% progress). Skipped for historical setups (no current_price).
- Fix: useFetchSymbolData now invalidates the trades queries, so a fetch/
  recompute actually refreshes confidence/setups in the UI (was the cause
  of the stale 100% confidence lingering after recompute).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 14:02:10 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 316226096b Fix score refresh, add granular fetch and live job status
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Scores never updated ("101d ago"): get_score only recomputes stale/
missing dimensions, but nothing marked them stale on new data, and there
was no scheduled scoring job.
- Fetch endpoint force-recomputes dimensions + composite.
- Scheduled scan (scan_all_tickers) refreshes scores per ticker, so
  scores stay current globally, not just on manual fetch.

Granular fetch: /ingestion/fetch accepts a sources filter; the freshness
bar gets a per-row refresh button (OHLCV/Sentiment/Fundamentals fetch
that provider only — marked paid; S/R/Scores recompute for free). Header
button is now "Fetch All".

Job visibility: GET /jobs/running (any user) + sidebar live indicator
showing running scheduled jobs with progress, polled every 10s.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 13:10:15 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 d53ed972d1 Add multi-factor conviction gate to activation
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Make "qualified" mean an edge candidate, not just R:R + confidence.
The gate now also requires (all admin-configurable, defaults on):
- high conviction: recommended_action LONG_HIGH / SHORT_HIGH only
- clean read: risk_level Low (no contradicting signals)
- probable primary target: best target probability >= min (default 60)

- Shared predicate: app/services/qualification.py +
  frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts (mirrored)
- Activation config extended (min_target_probability,
  require_high_conviction, exclude_conflicts) with bool-aware
  get/update + validation
- /trades/performance switched to ?qualified_only=true, applying
  the full gate server-side; confidence breakdown stays unfiltered
- Dashboard "Qualified", Signals "Qualified only" toggle, and
  Track Record all use the one gate; Admin gains the new controls

Sentiment provider runtime config (prior change) included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 11:50:42 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 6da65b8d8f Add activation thresholds: qualified-signal defaults and views
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Admin-configurable thresholds (min R:R, default 2.0; min confidence,
default 70%) defining what counts as an actionable signal:

- Admin Settings: new Activation Thresholds panel
  (GET/PUT /admin/settings/activation)
- GET /trades/activation exposes values to all users with access
- Signals/Setups: filters initialize from activation values
- Track Record: "Qualified signals only" toggle (default on) via
  min_rr/min_confidence params on /trades/performance; the
  confidence breakdown always covers the full population so the
  thresholds can be validated against outcomes
- Dashboard: "Qualified" metric and qualified-first Top Setups
- Outcome evaluator unchanged: every setup is still evaluated

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 18:16:04 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 21ed83c56c Add trade setup outcome tracking and performance stats
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Closes the feedback loop on R:R scanner signals:

- Nightly outcome_evaluator job replays unresolved setups against daily
  OHLCV bars: target_hit / stop_hit / ambiguous (same-bar, counted as
  loss) / expired after OUTCOME_EVALUATION_MAX_BARS (default 30)
- Migration 004: evaluated_at + outcome_date on trade_setups
- GET /trades/performance: hit rate, expectancy (avg R), total R with
  breakdowns by direction, recommended action, and confidence bucket
- New Performance page (stat cards, breakdown tables, Evaluate Now,
  methodology disclosure) wired into sidebar and mobile nav
- 17 new unit tests for evaluation logic and stats aggregation

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-10 19:23:57 +02:00
Dennis Thiessen 0a011d4ce9 Big refactoring
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2026-03-03 15:20:18 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 181cfe6588 major update
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2026-02-27 16:08:09 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 61ab24490d first commit
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2026-02-20 17:31:01 +01:00