The manual paper book only contains trades taken by hand, inside a 20
minute window, on days someone was available. The backtest that validated
this strategy auto-takes the top-ranked qualified setups up to capacity
every session. The forward record was therefore measuring strategy plus
discretion plus availability -- and degrading silently on busy days.
The shadow book closes that gap: it mirrors the backtest's selection rule
(top strategy_rank qualified, up to capacity, 1% fixed-fractional risk)
and shares the manual book's exit policy, so the only difference between
the two books is which setups get taken. Selection ordering reuses the
strategy_rank the scanner already stores rather than recomputing it, so
the two cannot drift apart. It runs as a near-close pipeline step right
after the scan, marking entries at the same prices a human would see.
Gate-reset re-entry state is now scoped per book -- the books diverge as
soon as their entries differ, and each must see only its own stops.
Performance view rewritten around the comparison:
- three series (shadow, manual, SPY) from a new endpoint
- SPY changes from a per-trade cost-basis counterfactual to plain
buy-and-hold %, since one line has to serve two books
- headline stats are R-multiples, not currency: the books size
differently, so only R compares across them
- configurable start date, because the strategy has been revised
repeatedly and pre-cutover trades ran under rules that no longer
exist
Migration 024 also repairs the numeric weekday crons written by 023,
rewriting only rows still holding the broken form so hand-corrected
settings survive. Its literals are inlined because bound parameters
render as NULL under 'alembic upgrade --sql'.
The shadow book is opt-in and writes nothing until enabled. Verify its
first selections match a backtest of that day's cross-section before
trusting any point on the curve.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Layout regrouped by relationship, not size: the setup-in-focus card
and the radar sit side by side (they are one decision surface), the
four account ribbons move directly above the open positions they
describe, and a new performance chart closes the page.
- Radar rows are selectable: clicking one swaps the focus card to that
setup - including below-gate rows, whose card shows a muted
"rank N / below gate" badge and the disqualify reason in the footer,
with a "back to top pick" reset. The row currently in focus is
highlighted; ticker links still deep-link without selecting.
- Performance chart (the mockup's missing piece): new
GET /paper-trades/equity-curve computes, per benchmark trading day
since the first paper trade, the book's cumulative P&L (realized +
mark-to-market from stored OHLCV) vs the same cost basis riding SPY
over each trade's window (benchmark_prices). Pure curve math in
paper_trade_service with unit tests; hidden until there are 2+
points of data. Frontend renders both lines with crosshair readout,
zero baseline, and direct end labels.
Backend unit suite: 501 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Production strategy change based on the July 2026 backtest: paper trades now default to a 30-trading-day hold with the initial stop (classic momentum hold-and-rerank), while target and trailing exits remain available in Admin. The exit policy API/UI now carries hold_days and close_reason can be 'time'.
The activation confidence floor default is now 0/off because the gate ablation showed it added no per-trade edge while filtering out usable setups. Migration 015 clears stored activation_min_confidence and paper_exit_mode so the new defaults take effect; this intentionally resets Track Record comparability from this deploy.
Verification: 451 backend tests pass, ruff check app/ clean, frontend npm run build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Applies the backtest-validated trailing stop to live paper trading, and surfaces
it transparently.
Exit (A):
- New paper-trade exit policy (paper_exit_mode=trailing, paper_trailing_pct=12),
tunable in Admin → Paper-Trade Exit. resolve_open_trades runs a trailing stop
(initial stop as floor, ratchets up from the peak; target ignored — the
validated rule) and records close_reason (trailing|stop|target|manual; +migration
013).
- list_trades enriches open trades with the live trailing-stop level + distance %.
Open Trades panel shows the active tactic and a Trail Stop column.
Alerts (B):
- Daily digest now lists open trades with unrealized gain, trailing stop, and how
far away it is.
- New "trade closed" alert: one summary per auto-close (trailing/target/stop, not
manual) — direction, reason, days held, P&L abs+%/R — covering wins AND
stop-loss losses. Deduped by trade id; toggle in Admin alerts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New paper_trades table (migration 007) + service/router. "Mark as taken" on each
setup card (shares prefilled from position sizing, entry from current price, both
editable) records a simulated trade. Overview gains an Open Trades table that
marks each position to the latest close — P&L in $, %, and R-multiples — with a
total unrealized P&L footer and a Sell button to close at the current price.
Closed trades are retained for future realized-P&L reporting.
Deploy: alembic upgrade (new paper_trades table).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5