Commit Graph
6 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 54ae8ba153 feat(dolt): A2 — DoltHub earnings importer (shadow ingestion)
A SourceImporter that ingests post-no-preference/earnings into earnings_events
for the tracked universe. Shadow by construction (nothing reads earnings_events
until A4).

- earnings_alignment.py: pure calendar<->EPS-history min-cost monotonic DP,
  reused from scripts/import_dolthub_earnings.py with identical constants (not
  extending that one-off script); symbol/session normalization; unit-tested
  against the pinned constants.
- dolt_client.py: async dolt CLI wrapper (pull / current_commit / query_csv via
  asyncio.create_subprocess_exec — never blocks the shared event loop) + disk
  guard before pull.
- dolt_earnings_importer.py: detect_revision = pull + HEAD hash; stage = query
  earnings_calendar + eps_history, dedup, align, map act_symbol->ticker_id
  (normalize both sides so dotted BRK.B joins); promote is destructive
  (delete future dolt_earnings rows + upsert; past never deleted) so validate is
  FAIL-CLOSED — blocks when the staged forward calendar is empty or has collapsed
  below 50% of what's loaded (the forward calendar is the acceptance gate).
- NOTICE: CC BY-SA 4.0 attribution; config: DOLT_BINARY / DOLT_DATA_DIR / etc.

Verified end-to-end against the real 1.68 GB clone (5 tickers: 133 events, 128
paired, forward calendar to 2026-08-26, BRK.B joined). Tests: 9 alignment + 7
importer + 1 skip-guarded real-clone smoke. Full suite 699 passed.

Remaining for A2: wire the daily ~02:30 ET shadow cron — deferred to pair with
the deploy-time dolt install + DOLT_DATA_DIR provisioning.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-22 10:55:27 +02:00
dennisthiessen 81c6f5fe2f fix: refresh latest regime trading session
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2026-07-15 09:13:42 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 ebff19940b feat: add standalone AI/Tech regime-change monitor tab
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A new /regime tab scoring how far the AI/Tech bull regime has deteriorated
toward a re-rating as a single 0-100 index with per-signal breakdown and a
7/30-day trend. Intentionally decoupled: nothing reads its output to gate or
score trades — the daily-pipeline membership is scheduling only.

- regime_monitor_service: price sub-scores (P1-P6 via Alpaca, like
  market_regime), VIX + HY credit spreads via a small FRED helper, weighted
  aggregation over available signals (missing source -> n/a, dropped from the
  denominator), one snapshot row/day, and a ~90-day history backfill by
  replaying the already-fetched series as-of each past day.
- F1/F3 fundamentals proposed by the configured grounded LLM (reuses
  sentiment_provider_service config resolution), with a manual override + lock.
- regime_snapshots table (migration 011); endpoints on the existing market
  router; admin-editable weights/threshold; standalone /regime page.

Data needs: prices via Alpaca, VIX/credit via FRED (optional key — signals show
n/a without it). No LLM needed for history.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 11:51:45 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 21ed83c56c Add trade setup outcome tracking and performance stats
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Closes the feedback loop on R:R scanner signals:

- Nightly outcome_evaluator job replays unresolved setups against daily
  OHLCV bars: target_hit / stop_hit / ambiguous (same-bar, counted as
  loss) / expired after OUTCOME_EVALUATION_MAX_BARS (default 30)
- Migration 004: evaluated_at + outcome_date on trade_setups
- GET /trades/performance: hit rate, expectancy (avg R), total R with
  breakdowns by direction, recommended action, and confidence bucket
- New Performance page (stat cards, breakdown tables, Evaluate Now,
  methodology disclosure) wired into sidebar and mobile nav
- 17 new unit tests for evaluation logic and stats aggregation

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-10 19:23:57 +02:00
Dennis Thiessen 0a011d4ce9 Big refactoring
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2026-03-03 15:20:18 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 61ab24490d first commit
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2026-02-20 17:31:01 +01:00