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25 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 9789e3d762 UI: frame the setup as what it is — a momentum signal with a trailing exit
The UI told a swing-trade story (entry -> target -> stop) while the engine runs
a momentum portfolio (buy strength, trail out, re-rank). The selection was
honest; everything around it was borrowed from a strategy we don't run.

The target is never an exit under `atr_trailing`: `_atr_trailing_close()` does
not even take it as a parameter. It exists only to compute the R:R and touch
odds that admit a setup through the activation gate. Backtested exit reasons for
the production strategy: 144 initial stop, 98 trailing stop, 78 max hold —
target 0. See docs/research/sr-levels-and-exits.md.

What changed:

- New ExitPlanPanel on every setup card states the rules that actually close the
  trade: initial stop (1R), the price at which the 3x ATR trail takes over from
  it, the trail width in R, and the max hold. Derived in lib/exitPlan.ts from the
  live exit policy, so it follows Admin rather than hardcoding the default.
- New BaseRatesPanel replaces per-target "probability" as the answer to "what
  usually happens": win rate, average hold, best/worst R, and how trades actually
  ended — measured under the real exit, from the backtest report.
- "Target"/"target probability" relabelled to "level"/"touch odds" and grouped as
  gate metrics, with the R:R. On the dashboard focus card, residual momentum
  (the actual signal) takes the headline stat those two used to occupy.
- The take-trade dialog no longer offers a target dropdown whose value the exit
  ignores; it states the trailing plan instead. The picker returns only when the
  live policy is mode='target', where the choice is real. The stored target is
  now the setup's own, not whichever row was last clicked while exploring.
- "Played out" is gone. A setup was declared dead once price reached the target —
  backwards under a trailing exit, where reaching a level is the good case and
  the trade keeps running. Only the stop invalidates a setup now; running past
  the entry is an "extended" warning, measured in R (you'd be chasing).

The levels ladder, the price rail and the chart overlay all stay fully
explorable — clicking a level still drives them. It is framed as overhead
structure, which is what it is, rather than a menu of exits.

Adds a parity guard: the UI recovers ATR as |entry - stop| / 1.5, so the test
fails if the scanner's stop width ever moves.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-12 15:29:21 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 6e33897c1a Mark-as-taken opens a modal dialog instead of expanding inline
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The inline take form under the price rail pushed the card apart. It is
now a focused overlay dialog (portaled to body - the unified panel's
backdrop-filter/overflow would trap a fixed element):

- symbol + direction header, stop/target/suggested-size summary line
- shares (autofocused), entry, and target selector
- Confirm trade / Cancel; closes on success, Escape, or backdrop click
- the card and panel never move

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 13:10:13 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 16121042cd Target selection syncs to chart; stable rail scale; sizing top-right
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- The ladder target choice is lifted to the ticker page (per
  direction), so selecting a target updates the candlestick overlay's
  target line and zone too, with the R:R for the tooltip taken from
  the ladder row.
- Price rail: the scale now always spans the entire target ladder, so
  stop / entry / now hold their positions and only the target marker
  moves when a different target is selected. The furthest target sits
  at the right edge.
- Setup card layout: position sizing (shares / value / max loss,
  details in the tooltip) and the Mark-as-taken button move to the top
  right of the card header row, next to the stats they belong with -
  the dangling bottom row is gone.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 12:52:18 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 9f56a25f2d Freshness first row; level clustering; verdict typography;
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selectable targets drive the rail

- Data freshness is now the very first row of the ticker panel, above
  the symbol - data age is the first thing to check.
- Indicator cards: long price-level lists (pivot swing highs/lows,
  volume-profile HVN/LVN) no longer clip or overwhelm. Numeric lists
  are clustered into ranges (values within ~0.75% of price merge),
  sorted nearest-to-price first, capped at 4 chips with a "+n more"
  note; scalar values wrap instead of overflowing the card.
- Recommendation verdict: the action ("LONG (high confidence)") is set
  in the display face in accent cyan with the risk level beside it;
  the signal breakdown (technical/momentum/sentiment) drops to a small
  muted subtitle line.
- Target ladder is open by default and selectable: clicking a row
  previews that target on the price rail and updates the R:R and
  probability chips, the low-probability warning, and the prefilled
  target in Mark-as-taken (still overridable there). The scanner's
  primary stays the default; a non-primary choice is chipped as
  "custom target".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 12:36:39 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 03bdcbd745 Ticker panel polish: freshness up top, radar pad, indicator grid,
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verdict de-dup, target picker on take

Five fixes from prod review:

1. Data freshness row moves from the panel foot to directly under the
   header - data age is a first-look concern.
2. Radar fingerprint labels were clipped left ("Momentum") and right
   (value digits): label padding widened to fit "momentum 100" on both
   anchored sides.
3. Indicators tab: the one-at-a-time dropdown (which also clipped) is
   gone; all indicators load in parallel as quiet outlined cards - EMA
   cross with its colored signal, RSI/ADX with a one-line human read
   (overbought / trending / ...), values formatted to 2 decimals
   instead of 4, normalized score demoted to a corner note.
4. Recommendation verdict line de-duplicated: the backend reasoning
   already starts with the action label, so it now replaces the
   headline instead of repeating under it.
5. Mark-as-taken: the take form gains a target selector listing every
   detected target with price / probability / classification (primary
   preselected), and the card warns when the primary target sits below
   15% probability. Why the scanner promotes such a target to primary
   is a separate (backend) question.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 12:20:23 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 d806ede07e Recommendation module in Horizon language; Standing/Dimensions as tabs
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RecommendationPanel redesigned to match the rest of the redesign:

- Setup cards use the spatial price rail (stop -> entry -> now ->
  target with live R-multiples) instead of the label/value text grid.
- One quiet chip row per card (direction, preferred marker, confidence,
  R:R, target probability) replaces scattered header text.
- Position sizing is a single mono line (shares / position / max loss)
  instead of a boxed 3-column mini-table; Mark-as-taken flow kept, in
  the standard cyan button style.
- Full target ladder moves behind a disclosure (the primary target is
  already on the rail); warnings (counter-trend, stale/invalidated
  drift, earnings window, conflict flags) all kept.
- Cards are quiet outlined blocks, no glass-in-glass; the module
  renders frameless inside the unified ticker panel's Analysis tab,
  under the chart.

Ticker panel tabs now: Analysis, Standing, Dimensions, Indicators,
S/R Levels, Sentiment, Fundamentals - Standing and Dimensions were the
last below-the-fold sections; the whole page is now the single panel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 08:32:03 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 65d2dae62a Revert blue-sky projection; keep played-out setup UX
A local backtest (offline prod snapshot, 506 tickers) evaluated blue-sky
projected targets under the PRODUCTION exit (3x ATR trailing + 30d max hold,
paper_trade_service DEFAULT_EXIT_MODE="atr_trailing"). Blue-sky setups are
dilutive: the qualified book scored 328% return / Sharpe 1.84 / DD -21.0%
WITHOUT them vs 300% / 1.58 / -18.7% WITH them. They rank high on momentum by
construction, so they grab slots from S/R setups that catch bigger runs under
a trailing-stop exit (only ~2pp worse drawdown doesn't justify the lost return
and Sharpe).

Reverts the scanner/TargetGenerator measured-move projection, the stricter
projected activation gate, the frontend qualification mirror, the `projected`
type field, and the projected tests -- all backend files are now byte-identical
to the pre-blue-sky commit.

Keeps the played-out "No current setup" UX (RecommendationPanel): when price
has run past the target (played out) or through the stop (invalidated), the
panel shows a plain no-setup state instead of a stale actionable card. This is
frontend-only (reads last close + existing setup fields) and is what actually
fixes the reported stale-below-price bug -- no backend change or rescan needed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 22:03:25 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 294d935030 Add blue-sky projected targets and played-out setup UX
Fixes stale below-price setups showing as current recommendations. Three
distinct causes share the symptom (get_trade_setups returns the latest stored
setup per direction and never expires it):

- Genuine blue-sky (no overhead S/R): scanner + TargetGenerator now project a
  measured-move target (entry +/- 3*ATR, ~2:1 R:R), flagged projected with a
  low sr_strength probability haircut. Overhead check keys on level tag OR price
  so it never projects through a straddling resistance cluster.
- Projected targets clear a stricter activation bar (long-only, momentum >= 90,
  confidence >= min+10), independent of the general momentum gate. Mirrored in
  frontend qualification.ts.
- Played-out UX (fixes the reported TTWO case, which is R:R-starved under a
  resistance cluster, not blue-sky): when price is at/past target or through the
  stop, RecommendationPanel shows a "No current setup" state and softens the
  stale ticker-level header/reasoning, instead of a stale actionable card.

No migration: the projected flag rides in existing targets_json. 504 backend
unit tests pass; frontend typechecks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 19:30:28 +02:00
dennisthiessen aadec7d403 promote residual momentum ranking
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2026-07-02 21:00:39 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 4a96f85cd9 feat: Standing matrix on the ticker page (quality x momentum verdict)
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Replace the scattered score readouts with one hero: a quality (composite) x
momentum-percentile scatter that plots this ticker against the whole field and
reads out a verdict by quadrant — Strong Buy / Momentum / Accumulate / Pass. The
dashed divider is the activation gate's momentum percentile, so "above the line =
qualifies" is visible at a glance; peers are clickable. Reuses the regime-quadrant
visual language and is lazy-loaded so recharts stays out of the main ticker chunk.

- New StandingMatrix component (composite x momentum, field cloud, verdict).
- ScoreCard gains showComposite (default true); the ticker page now renders it
  without the composite ring (composite lives in the matrix) under "Dimensions".
- Confidence + target probability stay in the recommendation panel (the trade).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-27 17:00:47 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 e5166ed668 sentiment: LLM buy/hold/avoid + full analysis, and search-budget scoping
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Richer LLM output (same grounded call, ~no extra cost):
- All providers now also return a recommendation (buy/hold/avoid) and a thorough
  reasoning paragraph; Gemini now actually captures reasoning + grounding
  citations (it was dropping them). Stored on sentiment_scores (migration 008),
  exposed in the API; display-only — NOT fed into the composite/EV.
- Ticker Sentiment panel shows an "LLM view" badge and a "Full analysis & sources"
  expander with the complete reasoning + citations.

Search-budget scoping (Gemini grounding free tier = 5000/mo):
- collect_sentiment now targets only watchlist + open paper trades + top-N by
  composite, skips tickers refreshed within sentiment_fresh_hours (72h), and caps
  per run (sentiment_max_per_run). Once the relevant set is fresh, runs spend 0
  searches until it ages out — bounding monthly usage well under the free tier.
- Widened sentiment lookback to 7d (scoring + display) so sparser collection
  still feeds the dimension score.

Deploy: alembic upgrade (sentiment_scores.recommendation). Switch provider to
Gemini Flash in Admin for the cost win (grounded, cheapest).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-16 16:34:19 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 a69557f5d8 add paper trading: mark a setup as taken, track open P&L, sell
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New paper_trades table (migration 007) + service/router. "Mark as taken" on each
setup card (shares prefilled from position sizing, entry from current price, both
editable) records a simulated trade. Overview gains an Open Trades table that
marks each position to the latest close — P&L in $, %, and R-multiples — with a
total unrealized P&L footer and a Sell button to close at the current price.
Closed trades are retained for future realized-P&L reporting.

Deploy: alembic upgrade (new paper_trades table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-16 06:33:56 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 0bb0f71877 refine position-sizing UI: top-of-panel controls, segmented risk, no spinners
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The account/risk inputs are global "set once" settings, so they're moved out of
the panel body into a single compact line in the recommendation header. Replaced
the number-input spinners: risk % is now a segmented preset selector (0.5/1/2/3),
account size a clean text field with a $ prefix. Relabel "at risk" → "max loss".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 12:56:45 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 f0b92a9718 add earnings-date guard — warn when a report falls in the target horizon
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Finnhub's earnings calendar now supplies next_earnings_date through the
fundamentals chain; persisted on fundamental_data (migration 006) and exposed in
the fundamentals API. The recommendation panel warns when earnings fall within
the ~30-day target horizon (a report can gap price through stop/target) and
otherwise shows the next date. Informational only.

Deploy: run alembic upgrade (new fundamental_data.next_earnings_date column).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 12:44:08 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 c4f2673799 add market-regime guard (SPY trend) — inform + warn
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New market_regime_service computes a benchmark (SPY) trend from its 50/200-day
SMAs, cached in a SystemSetting and refreshed by a nightly job; GET /market/regime
exposes it. Dashboard shows a regime banner; setup cards flag a counter-trend
caution when a setup fights the regime (LONG in a bearish market / SHORT in a
bullish one). Informational only — nothing is suppressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 12:34:07 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 1951531453 add position-size calculator to the recommendation panel
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Risk-based sizing on each setup card: shares = floor((account × risk%) /
|entry − stop|), with position value and dollars-at-risk. Account size and
per-trade risk % are editable inline and persisted in localStorage. Flags when
a position would exceed the account (needs margin). Frontend-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-15 11:26:55 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 a32f09c8ba Consolidate setup numbers; clearer staleness message
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- Overview Top Setups shows the primary target's probability (concrete,
  distance-calibrated) instead of the overlapping confidence number. The
  stale 100% confidences were leftovers from the old model and self-heal
  on rescan; confidence stays in the detail view + gate.
- Each metric now has one home: composite = ranking, target probability =
  actionability, confidence = direction conviction.
- Staleness message states the real basis (% of entry->target distance
  already covered), not the raw % from entry, so narrow setups read
  correctly ("67% of the move is gone").

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 13:43:17 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 5a0e8c8258 Fix sidebar username, Signals filter clarity and layout
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- JWT now carries a username claim; sidebar shows "Signed in as <name>"
  instead of the bare user id (sub). Re-login required for the new claim.
- Signals: Min R:R / Min Confidence inputs reflect the effective filter —
  auto-filled from the activation gate when "Qualified only" is on, reset
  to 0 when off (no more misleading 0 while the gate is active).
- Signals layout: Run Scanner moved to its own action row (it's a job
  trigger, not a filter); qualified toggle grouped with the refinement
  filters under one Filters panel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 12:11:39 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 33f6baca6b Surface current price; flag stale setups; declutter chart
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Triggered by MRK: entry 113 shown with no current price (actually ~119).

- Ticker header shows last close + day change % + "last close · Nd ago"
  (the age reveals OHLCV collection lag — why entry looked off)
- Setup cards show Current price and entry drift; flag setups as
  stale (price moved >1/3 toward target) or invalidated (past stop)
- Chart: draw only nearest support below + nearest resistance above
  current price, plus a prominent "Now" price line (full S/R stays in
  the S/R tab)
- Chart overlay is selectable (Auto/Long/Short/None) — only the chosen
  setup's entry/stop/target render, instead of everything at once

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 11:30:16 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 126c3b3c17 Add DeepSeek/xAI/OpenAI-compatible sentiment providers; custom dark dropdown
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Providers (admin-switchable, no redeploy):
- DeepSeek and any OpenAI-compatible endpoint (OpenRouter, Together,
  Groq, local Ollama) via a generic Chat Completions adapter + base_url
- xAI Grok with Live Search (search_parameters web+X, citations) —
  grounded tier alongside OpenAI and Gemini
- DeepSeek / generic compatible endpoints are ungrounded (no web
  search); UI shows an amber warning and labels each provider's grounding
- Optional env fallbacks DEEPSEEK_API_KEY / XAI_API_KEY

UI: replace native <select> (unstyleable white popup on Windows) with a
custom dark Dropdown component everywhere — sentiment provider, scanner
filters, market sort, indicators, admin universe, user role.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 12:42:04 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 d139dd0390 Integrate unused indicators into technical scoring; fix indicator dropdown
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- Technical dimension now uses all directional indicators:
  0.30*ADX + 0.20*EMA + 0.20*RSI + 0.15*EMA_Cross (bullish=80 /
  neutral=50 / bearish=20) + 0.10*Volume_Profile (POC proximity)
  + 0.05*Pivot_Points (structure confluence); weights re-normalize
  when data is insufficient, as before
- ATR stays out of scoring (volatility input for scanner stops,
  not a directional signal)
- IndicatorSelector uses the shared Select so the option list is
  dark instead of the native white popup
- Update technical scoring tests for the six-component breakdown

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 17:17:07 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 d69df5df27 UI/UX redesign: unified refined-glass design system
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- Add shared UI primitives: Button, Field/Input/Select, PageHeader,
  Section, Callout, Tabs, Disclosure
- Replace gradient buttons with single blue-accent btn-primary
- Reserve gradient text for the brand wordmark only
- Rework Scanner page onto the glass system; collapse explainer and
  glossary into a disclosure, move filters into a glass toolbar
- Restructure Ticker Detail into tabs (Analysis / Indicators / S/R)
  with chart and recommendation always visible
- Align Watchlist, Rankings, Admin, Login/Register to shared primitives
- Unify stray indigo/violet/gray accents into the blue family

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-10 14:52:56 +02:00
Dennis Thiessen 0a011d4ce9 Big refactoring
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2026-03-03 15:20:18 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 181cfe6588 major update
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2026-02-27 16:08:09 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 61ab24490d first commit
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2026-02-20 17:31:01 +01:00