The comparison plotted both books in dollars and SPY on a hidden rescaled
axis, stretched so its biggest move matched the books' biggest move. SPY's
height therefore said nothing about which was ahead, and the stat cells
showed R next to SPY's percent, which do not compare.
Everything is now percent of the shadow book's equity:
- shadow: actual P&L over equity at window start (start equity plus P&L
realized before a pinned performance_start_date)
- your picks: re-sized at the shadow book's rule (risk_pct, 20% notional
cap), so the gap between books is selection only
- SPY: buy & hold on the same axis
A strategy-vs-SPY verdict measures SPY from the shadow book's first trade,
so manual trades opening earlier no longer charge the strategy for SPY's
run-up before it existed. R stats stay underneath for book-vs-book reads.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The manual paper book only contains trades taken by hand, inside a 20
minute window, on days someone was available. The backtest that validated
this strategy auto-takes the top-ranked qualified setups up to capacity
every session. The forward record was therefore measuring strategy plus
discretion plus availability -- and degrading silently on busy days.
The shadow book closes that gap: it mirrors the backtest's selection rule
(top strategy_rank qualified, up to capacity, 1% fixed-fractional risk)
and shares the manual book's exit policy, so the only difference between
the two books is which setups get taken. Selection ordering reuses the
strategy_rank the scanner already stores rather than recomputing it, so
the two cannot drift apart. It runs as a near-close pipeline step right
after the scan, marking entries at the same prices a human would see.
Gate-reset re-entry state is now scoped per book -- the books diverge as
soon as their entries differ, and each must see only its own stops.
Performance view rewritten around the comparison:
- three series (shadow, manual, SPY) from a new endpoint
- SPY changes from a per-trade cost-basis counterfactual to plain
buy-and-hold %, since one line has to serve two books
- headline stats are R-multiples, not currency: the books size
differently, so only R compares across them
- configurable start date, because the strategy has been revised
repeatedly and pre-cutover trades ran under rules that no longer
exist
Migration 024 also repairs the numeric weekday crons written by 023,
rewriting only rows still holding the broken form so hand-corrected
settings survive. Its literals are inlined because bound parameters
render as NULL under 'alembic upgrade --sql'.
The shadow book is opt-in and writes nothing until enabled. Verify its
first selections match a backtest of that day's cross-section before
trusting any point on the curve.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 5.5