Commit Graph

66 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessen da83f027e1 Drop over-progressed setups via live R:R; refresh trades on fetch
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Answers "why does a too-far-progressed setup still show": setups are only
recalculated by the scheduled R:R scan and manual fetch; at creation
entry == current price (0% progress), so over-progression is a
between-scans drift effect and must be judged at read time.

- /trades now attaches current_price (latest close per ticker).
- Qualification drops setups whose R:R recomputed from the current price
  falls below min_rr — i.e. price already ran toward target (reward
  consumed) or through the stop. Reuses the existing min_rr threshold
  instead of a separate progress %; far cleaner (a 3:1 is already ~1:1
  by 33% progress). Skipped for historical setups (no current_price).
- Fix: useFetchSymbolData now invalidates the trades queries, so a fetch/
  recompute actually refreshes confidence/setups in the UI (was the cause
  of the stale 100% confidence lingering after recompute).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 14:02:10 +02:00
dennisthiessen 316226096b Fix score refresh, add granular fetch and live job status
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Scores never updated ("101d ago"): get_score only recomputes stale/
missing dimensions, but nothing marked them stale on new data, and there
was no scheduled scoring job.
- Fetch endpoint force-recomputes dimensions + composite.
- Scheduled scan (scan_all_tickers) refreshes scores per ticker, so
  scores stay current globally, not just on manual fetch.

Granular fetch: /ingestion/fetch accepts a sources filter; the freshness
bar gets a per-row refresh button (OHLCV/Sentiment/Fundamentals fetch
that provider only — marked paid; S/R/Scores recompute for free). Header
button is now "Fetch All".

Job visibility: GET /jobs/running (any user) + sidebar live indicator
showing running scheduled jobs with progress, polled every 10s.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 13:10:15 +02:00
dennisthiessen 3aebfd72d3 Spread trade targets across distance bands
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MKC showed 5 targets all far/Aggressive: target selection was top-5 by
quality (0.35*R:R + ...), and R:R grows with distance, so far levels
crowded out every nearby one.

generate_targets now selects for spread: always include the nearest
level, plus the best-quality representative from each distance band
(Conservative <=2.9 ATR, Moderate <=4.6 ATR, Aggressive beyond), then
fill remaining slots by quality. Restores a Conservative/Moderate/
Aggressive mix with the nearest target always present.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 12:44:59 +02:00
dennisthiessen 8c89396987 Make target probability and classification distance-aware
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Fixes nonsensical "Conservative @ 90%" on far targets (AJG: +39% target
labelled Conservative/90%).

- Probability = chance of touching the level within the outcome horizon
  under a driftless random walk: 2*(1 - Phi(d / (ATR*sqrt(T)))), T=30d to
  match the outcome evaluator. Distance (in ATR) dominates; strength and
  alignment modulate modestly. Far targets are now correctly low-prob.
- Classification derived from that probability (>=60 Conservative,
  40-60 Moderate, <40 Aggressive) instead of distance-rank.
- Combined with the most-likely-worthwhile primary pick, the nearest
  strong resistance becomes the Conservative primary; far levels demote
  to low-probability stretch targets.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 12:26:36 +02:00
dennisthiessen 5a0e8c8258 Fix sidebar username, Signals filter clarity and layout
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- JWT now carries a username claim; sidebar shows "Signed in as <name>"
  instead of the bare user id (sub). Re-login required for the new claim.
- Signals: Min R:R / Min Confidence inputs reflect the effective filter —
  auto-filled from the activation gate when "Qualified only" is on, reset
  to 0 when off (no more misleading 0 while the gate is active).
- Signals layout: Run Scanner moved to its own action row (it's a job
  trigger, not a filter); qualified toggle grouped with the refinement
  filters under one Filters panel.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 12:11:39 +02:00
dennisthiessen d3eb8a2b97 Fix scoring/recommendation correctness and calibration
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Triggered by CNC showing "LONG (High Confidence)" with SHORT reasoning
and no long setup.

- A: recommendation action + reasoning are ticker-level and identical
  on both setups; reasoning always matches the shown action
- B: recommended_action only picks a direction with a tradeable setup;
  strong bias with no setup (e.g. price at ATH) → NEUTRAL with an
  explanatory reason instead of a fake LONG_HIGH
- C: confidence is a directional-agreement model — opposing signals push
  it below 50 (SHORT on a 92-technical/99-momentum stock ~0%, not 55%)
- D: fundamental score requires >=2 real metrics (market-cap-only no
  longer yields a high score)
- E: RSI score peaks at healthy momentum (~60) and penalizes
  overbought/oversold extremes instead of treating RSI 90 as maximal
- F: fundamentals chain merges fields across providers (FMP market cap
  + Finnhub P/E) instead of stopping at the first with any field
- NEUTRAL label: "No Clear Setup" (covers untradeable-bias case)

Scores recompute on next scan/scoring run; C and E shift score
distributions intentionally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 15:34:36 +02:00
dennisthiessen ffb609d38f Fix xAI sentiment: use Agent Tools web_search (Live Search deprecated)
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xAI returned 410 — search_parameters/Live Search is retired. Route xAI
through the Responses API web_search tool instead (same path as OpenAI):
- OpenAISentimentProvider parametrized with base_url / tool_type / source
- xAI builds it against https://api.x.ai/v1 with the web_search tool
- Drop the dead Live Search code from the generic compatible provider
- Frontend label: "xAI Grok — web search"

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 14:30:45 +02:00
dennisthiessen 126c3b3c17 Add DeepSeek/xAI/OpenAI-compatible sentiment providers; custom dark dropdown
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Providers (admin-switchable, no redeploy):
- DeepSeek and any OpenAI-compatible endpoint (OpenRouter, Together,
  Groq, local Ollama) via a generic Chat Completions adapter + base_url
- xAI Grok with Live Search (search_parameters web+X, citations) —
  grounded tier alongside OpenAI and Gemini
- DeepSeek / generic compatible endpoints are ungrounded (no web
  search); UI shows an amber warning and labels each provider's grounding
- Optional env fallbacks DEEPSEEK_API_KEY / XAI_API_KEY

UI: replace native <select> (unstyleable white popup on Windows) with a
custom dark Dropdown component everywhere — sentiment provider, scanner
filters, market sort, indicators, admin universe, user role.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 12:42:04 +02:00
dennisthiessen d53ed972d1 Add multi-factor conviction gate to activation
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Make "qualified" mean an edge candidate, not just R:R + confidence.
The gate now also requires (all admin-configurable, defaults on):
- high conviction: recommended_action LONG_HIGH / SHORT_HIGH only
- clean read: risk_level Low (no contradicting signals)
- probable primary target: best target probability >= min (default 60)

- Shared predicate: app/services/qualification.py +
  frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts (mirrored)
- Activation config extended (min_target_probability,
  require_high_conviction, exclude_conflicts) with bool-aware
  get/update + validation
- /trades/performance switched to ?qualified_only=true, applying
  the full gate server-side; confidence breakdown stays unfiltered
- Dashboard "Qualified", Signals "Qualified only" toggle, and
  Track Record all use the one gate; Admin gains the new controls

Sentiment provider runtime config (prior change) included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 11:50:42 +02:00
dennisthiessen 6da65b8d8f Add activation thresholds: qualified-signal defaults and views
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Admin-configurable thresholds (min R:R, default 2.0; min confidence,
default 70%) defining what counts as an actionable signal:

- Admin Settings: new Activation Thresholds panel
  (GET/PUT /admin/settings/activation)
- GET /trades/activation exposes values to all users with access
- Signals/Setups: filters initialize from activation values
- Track Record: "Qualified signals only" toggle (default on) via
  min_rr/min_confidence params on /trades/performance; the
  confidence breakdown always covers the full population so the
  thresholds can be validated against outcomes
- Dashboard: "Qualified" metric and qualified-first Top Setups
- Outcome evaluator unchanged: every setup is still evaluated

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 18:16:04 +02:00
dennisthiessen d139dd0390 Integrate unused indicators into technical scoring; fix indicator dropdown
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- Technical dimension now uses all directional indicators:
  0.30*ADX + 0.20*EMA + 0.20*RSI + 0.15*EMA_Cross (bullish=80 /
  neutral=50 / bearish=20) + 0.10*Volume_Profile (POC proximity)
  + 0.05*Pivot_Points (structure confluence); weights re-normalize
  when data is insufficient, as before
- ATR stays out of scoring (volatility input for scanner stops,
  not a directional signal)
- IndicatorSelector uses the shared Select so the option list is
  dark instead of the native white popup
- Update technical scoring tests for the six-component breakdown

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 17:17:07 +02:00
dennisthiessen 21ed83c56c Add trade setup outcome tracking and performance stats
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Closes the feedback loop on R:R scanner signals:

- Nightly outcome_evaluator job replays unresolved setups against daily
  OHLCV bars: target_hit / stop_hit / ambiguous (same-bar, counted as
  loss) / expired after OUTCOME_EVALUATION_MAX_BARS (default 30)
- Migration 004: evaluated_at + outcome_date on trade_setups
- GET /trades/performance: hit rate, expectancy (avg R), total R with
  breakdowns by direction, recommended action, and confidence bucket
- New Performance page (stat cards, breakdown tables, Evaluate Now,
  methodology disclosure) wired into sidebar and mobile nav
- 17 new unit tests for evaluation logic and stats aggregation

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-10 19:23:57 +02:00
dennisthiessen 6a0bd8d099 fixed lint errors
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2026-03-03 18:51:06 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 0a011d4ce9 Big refactoring
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2026-03-03 15:20:18 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 181cfe6588 major update
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2026-02-27 16:08:09 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 61ab24490d first commit
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2026-02-20 17:31:01 +01:00