Commit Graph
16 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 5 3e83d63b05 chore: decommission FMP, Finnhub and Alpha Vantage (A6)
The A5 cutover has been on and observed in production, so SEC Company Facts +
DoltHub earnings are already the live source for `fundamental_data`. This
removes everything the legacy path still occupied.

Gone: the three providers and their config/env keys; the weekly
`fundamental_collector` job; the cutover toggle (SEC + Dolt is now the
unconditional path, so `off` can no longer silently freeze scoring inputs); the
A5 parity report, whose deltas became structurally zero once the candidate
builder started writing the table it compared against; and the FMP tier of
universe bootstrap.

Two behavioral notes:

- Disabling **SEC Fundamentals Import** now stops the SEC network fetch only.
  The local cache refresh moved outside the job-enable check, because candidates
  also derive from daily closes and earnings events — freezing those on an
  ingestion pause would stale scoring with no fallback left to recover from.
- `/ingestion/fetch?sources=fundamentals` still accepts the key and reports
  `skipped`; there is no per-ticker fetch any more.

Migration 029 does not blanket-delete the leftover settings rows. Migrations run
before the service restart, and pre-A6 code reads an absent `job_*_enabled` row
as *enabled* — so the two behavior-bearing keys become tombstones pinned to safe
values (hidden in Admin) and only the inert three are deleted. Removing the
provider keys from the production `.env` is the matching rollout step.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-07 11:19:28 +02:00
dennisthiessen 49bf3b140e Add Admin control for fundamentals cutover
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2026-07-24 16:15:51 +02:00
dennisthiessen ce8c60d957 feat: add fundamentals parity reporting 2026-07-23 21:17:58 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 ba2df8b9fd feat: shadow book + shadow-vs-manual performance comparison
The manual paper book only contains trades taken by hand, inside a 20
minute window, on days someone was available. The backtest that validated
this strategy auto-takes the top-ranked qualified setups up to capacity
every session. The forward record was therefore measuring strategy plus
discretion plus availability -- and degrading silently on busy days.

The shadow book closes that gap: it mirrors the backtest's selection rule
(top strategy_rank qualified, up to capacity, 1% fixed-fractional risk)
and shares the manual book's exit policy, so the only difference between
the two books is which setups get taken. Selection ordering reuses the
strategy_rank the scanner already stores rather than recomputing it, so
the two cannot drift apart. It runs as a near-close pipeline step right
after the scan, marking entries at the same prices a human would see.

Gate-reset re-entry state is now scoped per book -- the books diverge as
soon as their entries differ, and each must see only its own stops.

Performance view rewritten around the comparison:
  - three series (shadow, manual, SPY) from a new endpoint
  - SPY changes from a per-trade cost-basis counterfactual to plain
    buy-and-hold %, since one line has to serve two books
  - headline stats are R-multiples, not currency: the books size
    differently, so only R compares across them
  - configurable start date, because the strategy has been revised
    repeatedly and pre-cutover trades ran under rules that no longer
    exist

Migration 024 also repairs the numeric weekday crons written by 023,
rewriting only rows still holding the broken form so hand-corrected
settings survive. Its literals are inlined because bound parameters
render as NULL under 'alembic upgrade --sql'.

The shadow book is opt-in and writes nothing until enabled. Verify its
first selections match a backtest of that day's cross-section before
trusting any point on the curve.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-20 23:44:41 +02:00
dennisthiessen 65a462271c feat: add selectable daily backtest cadence 2026-07-17 14:41:24 +02:00
dennisthiessen f59c0c3484 Add system alerts log with nav badge and Admin Alerts tab.
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Persist job and ingestion warnings/errors for 7 days, surface a dismissible top-nav badge, treat stale OHLCV as a warning (e.g. ticker renames), and show market bar age on the ticker freshness chip.
2026-07-14 13:38:04 +02:00
dennisthiessen bee5a5ce89 Finalize GTL and retire S/R research harness 2026-07-13 17:58:04 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 da0bb3367e feat: company names for tickers (Alpaca backfill + subtle display)
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Store an optional company name on Ticker (migration 014) and backfill it from
Alpaca's asset list in a single Trading-API call for the whole universe — no
per-ticker fetch. Runs automatically at the end of universe bootstrap and via a
manual "Backfill Names" button (admin) / POST /admin/tickers/backfill-names.

The name ships on /tickers; a shared symbol→name map (useTickerNames) lets any view
show it without its own request. Displayed subtly next to the symbol — in the global
search, the ticker header, and as a small muted line under the symbol in Top Setups
and Open Trades (no extra column, truncated so it never widens the table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-01 10:50:40 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 c34f3cb1a4 redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable
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Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 14:46:38 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 5d41ccac1c add Telegram alerts: qualified setups, S/R proximity, score drops, daily digest
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Closes the action loop — instead of polling the dashboard, the platform pushes
actionable signals to Telegram. New hourly 'alerts' job dispatches four
toggleable triggers, deduped via a new alert_log table (cooldown-based for
qualified/S-R/digest, watermark-based for score deterioration). Admin → Settings
gains a Telegram panel (write-only bot token, chat ID, per-trigger toggles, Send
Test). Credentials follow DB > env precedence (TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN / _CHAT_ID).

Backend: alert_service + AlertLog model + migration 005, scheduler job, admin
endpoints/schema. Frontend: AlertSettings panel, hooks, api, types.

Deploy: run alembic upgrade (new alert_log table).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 19:42:18 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 4.8 90618d186f add track-record reset; drop dead distance_penalty_factor knob
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Track Record: new "Reset" action (POST /admin/track-record/reset) deletes all
trade setups so stats start fresh after material scoring/setup changes — live
setups regenerate on the next scan. Guarded by a confirm dialog.

Recommendation config: remove distance_penalty_factor, which was exposed in the
admin UI but consumed nowhere (the touch-probability model superseded it). A
knob that silently does nothing is worse than no knob. Remaining defaults are
left as-is — they're reasonable, and the honest way to tune them is backtesting
against accumulated outcomes, not invented "researched" numbers.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-14 14:44:02 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 126c3b3c17 Add DeepSeek/xAI/OpenAI-compatible sentiment providers; custom dark dropdown
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Providers (admin-switchable, no redeploy):
- DeepSeek and any OpenAI-compatible endpoint (OpenRouter, Together,
  Groq, local Ollama) via a generic Chat Completions adapter + base_url
- xAI Grok with Live Search (search_parameters web+X, citations) —
  grounded tier alongside OpenAI and Gemini
- DeepSeek / generic compatible endpoints are ungrounded (no web
  search); UI shows an amber warning and labels each provider's grounding
- Optional env fallbacks DEEPSEEK_API_KEY / XAI_API_KEY

UI: replace native <select> (unstyleable white popup on Windows) with a
custom dark Dropdown component everywhere — sentiment provider, scanner
filters, market sort, indicators, admin universe, user role.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 12:42:04 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 d53ed972d1 Add multi-factor conviction gate to activation
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Make "qualified" mean an edge candidate, not just R:R + confidence.
The gate now also requires (all admin-configurable, defaults on):
- high conviction: recommended_action LONG_HIGH / SHORT_HIGH only
- clean read: risk_level Low (no contradicting signals)
- probable primary target: best target probability >= min (default 60)

- Shared predicate: app/services/qualification.py +
  frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts (mirrored)
- Activation config extended (min_target_probability,
  require_high_conviction, exclude_conflicts) with bool-aware
  get/update + validation
- /trades/performance switched to ?qualified_only=true, applying
  the full gate server-side; confidence breakdown stays unfiltered
- Dashboard "Qualified", Signals "Qualified only" toggle, and
  Track Record all use the one gate; Admin gains the new controls

Sentiment provider runtime config (prior change) included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-13 11:50:42 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 6da65b8d8f Add activation thresholds: qualified-signal defaults and views
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Admin-configurable thresholds (min R:R, default 2.0; min confidence,
default 70%) defining what counts as an actionable signal:

- Admin Settings: new Activation Thresholds panel
  (GET/PUT /admin/settings/activation)
- GET /trades/activation exposes values to all users with access
- Signals/Setups: filters initialize from activation values
- Track Record: "Qualified signals only" toggle (default on) via
  min_rr/min_confidence params on /trades/performance; the
  confidence breakdown always covers the full population so the
  thresholds can be validated against outcomes
- Dashboard: "Qualified" metric and qualified-first Top Setups
- Outcome evaluator unchanged: every setup is still evaluated

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 18:16:04 +02:00
Dennis Thiessen 0a011d4ce9 Big refactoring
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2026-03-03 15:20:18 +01:00
Dennis Thiessen 61ab24490d first commit
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2026-02-20 17:31:01 +01:00