8 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
dennisthiessenandClaude Opus 5 3e83d63b05 chore: decommission FMP, Finnhub and Alpha Vantage (A6)
The A5 cutover has been on and observed in production, so SEC Company Facts +
DoltHub earnings are already the live source for `fundamental_data`. This
removes everything the legacy path still occupied.

Gone: the three providers and their config/env keys; the weekly
`fundamental_collector` job; the cutover toggle (SEC + Dolt is now the
unconditional path, so `off` can no longer silently freeze scoring inputs); the
A5 parity report, whose deltas became structurally zero once the candidate
builder started writing the table it compared against; and the FMP tier of
universe bootstrap.

Two behavioral notes:

- Disabling **SEC Fundamentals Import** now stops the SEC network fetch only.
  The local cache refresh moved outside the job-enable check, because candidates
  also derive from daily closes and earnings events — freezing those on an
  ingestion pause would stale scoring with no fallback left to recover from.
- `/ingestion/fetch?sources=fundamentals` still accepts the key and reports
  `skipped`; there is no per-ticker fetch any more.

Migration 029 does not blanket-delete the leftover settings rows. Migrations run
before the service restart, and pre-A6 code reads an absent `job_*_enabled` row
as *enabled* — so the two behavior-bearing keys become tombstones pinned to safe
values (hidden in Admin) and only the inert three are deleted. Removing the
provider keys from the production `.env` is the matching rollout step.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-07 11:19:28 +02:00
dennisthiessenandClaude Fable 5 c7c60a64f2 research: Task 2 closed — SUE dead, earnings gap informational
Earnings backfill sourced from the public DoltHub earnings repo at a
pinned commit rather than the FMP API: reproducible for anyone re-running
the study, and it burns no request quota. 12,414 events, 98.6% of symbols
with >=8 announcements, 99.2% paired actual/estimate, no keyed duplicates.

2a earnings-gap diagnostic: INFORMATIONAL, no filter shipped. The
pre-earnings cohort's right tail was better, so the registered
avoid-earnings condition failed. Note the raw 23/266 vs 115/574 incidence
gap is largely a duration confound -- severe losses stop out fast and have
less time to span an announcement -- so it is not evidence that holding
through earnings is safe.

2b SUE: FAIL against the pre-registered +0.03 bar (unconditional IC
+0.0151 over 56 reliable windows, momentum-conditional +0.0213). Signs
stable across eras, so this is a clean null rather than an ambiguous one,
consistent with post-earnings drift having decayed in large caps.

Closes the Tier-1 arc: Task 1 dead on deep evidence, Task 2 dead here,
Task 3 complete as diagnostic. No in-sample research thread remains open.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-20 21:10:46 +02:00
dennisthiessen bb8aa655a1 research: clean up closed Tier-1 scaffolding from branch
Drop intermediate history-depth reports, sector-residual runners/map/code hooks
(evidence stays in final reports + docs), and slim MacBook helper to ssl/earnings/
prod-book-matrix only. SSL bootstrap and archived research conclusions retained.
2026-07-19 14:41:52 +02:00
dennisthiessen 9171e366ee research: prepare prod book universe x horizon 4-arm matrix
Pre-register A-D (4y/2016 x 505/505+liquid) with unchanged production knobs.
Runner caches full GTL candidates then re-ranks per arm; MacBook entry via
run_tier1_macbook.sh --prod-book-matrix.
2026-07-19 11:58:52 +02:00
dennisthiessen a9841d92b7 research: sector-resid deep test (deepen shallow + one masked PASS/FAIL)
Terminal follow-up for Task 1: detect/refetch shallow two-tier symbols and sector
ETFs at 5000d, regenerate manifest, run ONE liquid-1500 harness with era split, grade
mom_12_1_sector_resid mechanically. Bundled as run_tier1_macbook.sh --sector-resid-deep.
2026-07-19 10:58:03 +02:00
Dennis Thiessen f6e0ca734f tests done 2026-07-19 10:40:19 +02:00
dennisthiessen 06cf054f60 fix: bootstrap SSL/CA for research CLI on corporate MacBooks
Extract app/ssl_bootstrap.py (shared with FastAPI main), wire it into research
scripts, and teach run_tier1_macbook.sh to locate combined-ca-bundle.pem, certifi,
optional USE_CORP_PROXY, plus --ssl-check diagnostics.
2026-07-19 09:46:07 +02:00
dennisthiessen 32bf9c9297 research: bundle MacBook tier-1 pipeline into one bash script
scripts/run_tier1_macbook.sh wraps earnings resume, coverage probe, deep
snapshot rebuild, sector ETF refresh, and history-depth harness with phase flags.
2026-07-19 09:34:49 +02:00