diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 1a37243..ce1185a 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -36,5 +36,6 @@ alembic/versions/__pycache__/ combined-ca-bundle.pem # Local research artifacts +# Backtest reports in reports/ are tracked: they are the evidence behind the +# production baseline in the README. The snapshot DBs they run against are not. backtest_snapshots/ -reports/backtest-*.json diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260704-baseline-pre-tuning.json b/reports/backtest-20260704-baseline-pre-tuning.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e2929be --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260704-baseline-pre-tuning.json @@ -0,0 +1,104568 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-04T11:46:43.911903+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": null, + "net_total_r": null, + "best_r": null, + "worst_r": null, + "avg_hold_days": null, + "net_r_per_day": null, + "median_net_r": null, + "profit_factor": null, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null + } + }, + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "sweep": [ + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0, + "total": 697, + "wins": 226, + "losses": 393, + "expired": 78, + "hit_rate": 36.5, + "avg_r": 0.187, + "total_r": 130.2, + "net_avg_r": 0.146, + "net_total_r": 101.74, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0124, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 1.23, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.02 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, + "total": 2321, + "wins": 724, + "losses": 1354, + "expired": 243, + "hit_rate": 34.8, + "avg_r": 0.121, + "total_r": 281.8, + "net_avg_r": 0.073, + "net_total_r": 169.61, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0061, + "median_net_r": -1.037, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.086 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, + "total": 3424, + "wins": 1034, + "losses": 2024, + "expired": 366, + "hit_rate": 33.8, + "avg_r": 0.091, + "total_r": 312.08, + "net_avg_r": 0.041, + "net_total_r": 140.92, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 12.0, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0034, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 1.06, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.115 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, + "total": 4700, + "wins": 1384, + "losses": 2797, + "expired": 519, + "hit_rate": 33.1, + "avg_r": 0.067, + "total_r": 315.63, + "net_avg_r": 0.016, + "net_total_r": 76.8, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.86, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0013, + "median_net_r": -1.042, + "profit_factor": 1.02, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.139 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, + "total": 17100, + "wins": 4186, + "losses": 10951, + "expired": 1963, + "hit_rate": 27.7, + "avg_r": -0.092, + "total_r": -1565.72, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -2408.12, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -15.94, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0116, + "median_net_r": -1.043, + "profit_factor": 0.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.304 + } + ], + "gate_ablation": [ + { + "variant": "all_floors", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + 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"net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": -1.025, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29849.63, + "total_return_pct": 198.5, + "cagr_pct": 31.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5, + "sharpe": 1.34, + "trades": 329, + "win_rate": 35.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 60.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.44, + "best_trade_pnl": 2897.39, + "worst_trade_pnl": -415.91, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 200, + "time": 129 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 24.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 39.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", + "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29973.13, + "total_return_pct": 199.7, + "cagr_pct": 31.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.6, + "sharpe": 1.38, + "trades": 277, + "win_rate": 36.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 72.11, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 2961.67, + "worst_trade_pnl": -445.41, + "avg_hold_days": 16.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 171, + "time": 106 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 5.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 31.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + 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Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": 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18111.91, + "return_pct": 81.12 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-23", + "equity": 17926.97, + "return_pct": 79.27 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-24", + "equity": 18057.27, + "return_pct": 80.57 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-25", + "equity": 18209.64, + "return_pct": 82.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-26", + "equity": 18108.5, + "return_pct": 81.08 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-27", + "equity": 18021.54, + "return_pct": 80.22 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-02", + "equity": 18031.79, + "return_pct": 80.32 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-03", + "equity": 17872.85, + "return_pct": 78.73 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-04", + "equity": 17998.95, + "return_pct": 79.99 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-05", + "equity": 17898.59, + "return_pct": 78.99 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-06", + "equity": 17664.0, + "return_pct": 76.64 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-09", + "equity": 17818.73, + "return_pct": 78.19 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-10", + "equity": 17790.1, + "return_pct": 77.9 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-11", + "equity": 17767.77, + "return_pct": 77.68 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-12", + "equity": 17497.96, + "return_pct": 74.98 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-13", + "equity": 17398.92, + "return_pct": 73.99 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-16", + "equity": 17575.99, + "return_pct": 75.76 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-17", + "equity": 17622.23, + "return_pct": 76.22 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-18", + "equity": 17376.33, + "return_pct": 73.76 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-19", + "equity": 17333.51, + "return_pct": 73.34 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-20", + "equity": 17038.49, + "return_pct": 70.38 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-23", + "equity": 17217.39, + "return_pct": 72.17 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-24", + "equity": 17159.6, + "return_pct": 71.6 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-25", + "equity": 17255.22, + "return_pct": 72.55 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-26", + "equity": 16947.06, + "return_pct": 69.47 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-27", + "equity": 16658.08, + "return_pct": 66.58 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-30", + "equity": 16602.39, + "return_pct": 66.02 + }, + { + "date": "2026-03-31", + "equity": 17084.99, + "return_pct": 70.85 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-01", + "equity": 17213.71, + "return_pct": 72.14 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-02", + "equity": 17229.21, + "return_pct": 72.29 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-06", + "equity": 17310.65, + "return_pct": 73.11 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-07", + "equity": 17318.27, + "return_pct": 73.18 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-08", + "equity": 17759.36, + "return_pct": 77.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-09", + "equity": 17861.82, + "return_pct": 78.62 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-10", + "equity": 17849.99, + "return_pct": 78.5 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-13", + "equity": 18024.43, + "return_pct": 80.24 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-14", + "equity": 18244.06, + "return_pct": 82.44 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-15", + "equity": 18388.02, + "return_pct": 83.88 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-16", + "equity": 18433.21, + "return_pct": 84.33 + }, + { + "date": "2026-04-17", + "equity": 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19278.34, + "return_pct": 92.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-07", + "equity": 19219.23, + "return_pct": 92.19 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-08", + "equity": 19377.91, + "return_pct": 93.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-11", + "equity": 19422.04, + "return_pct": 94.22 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-12", + "equity": 19392.62, + "return_pct": 93.93 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-13", + "equity": 19501.12, + "return_pct": 95.01 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-14", + "equity": 19655.06, + "return_pct": 96.55 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-15", + "equity": 19418.63, + "return_pct": 94.19 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-18", + "equity": 19404.97, + "return_pct": 94.05 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-19", + "equity": 19275.71, + "return_pct": 92.76 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-20", + "equity": 19473.27, + "return_pct": 94.73 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-21", + "equity": 19511.89, + "return_pct": 95.12 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-22", + "equity": 19588.6, + "return_pct": 95.89 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-26", + "equity": 19718.64, + "return_pct": 97.19 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-27", + "equity": 19715.22, + "return_pct": 97.15 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-28", + "equity": 19823.99, + "return_pct": 98.24 + }, + { + "date": "2026-05-29", + "equity": 19873.37, + "return_pct": 98.73 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-01", + "equity": 19927.49, + "return_pct": 99.27 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-02", + "equity": 19954.55, + "return_pct": 99.55 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-03", + "equity": 19814.53, + "return_pct": 98.15 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-04", + "equity": 19889.4, + "return_pct": 98.89 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-05", + "equity": 19376.07, + "return_pct": 93.76 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-08", + "equity": 19419.94, + "return_pct": 94.2 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-09", + "equity": 19362.93, + "return_pct": 93.63 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-10", + "equity": 19057.66, + "return_pct": 90.58 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-11", + "equity": 19381.58, + "return_pct": 93.82 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-12", + "equity": 19486.4, + "return_pct": 94.86 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-15", + "equity": 19830.03, + "return_pct": 98.3 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-16", + "equity": 19711.81, + "return_pct": 97.12 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-17", + "equity": 19465.65, + "return_pct": 94.66 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-18", + "equity": 19617.5, + "return_pct": 96.17 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-22", + "equity": 19555.76, + "return_pct": 95.56 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-23", + "equity": 19271.77, + "return_pct": 92.72 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-24", + "equity": 19262.84, + "return_pct": 92.63 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-25", + "equity": 19290.69, + "return_pct": 92.91 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-26", + "equity": 19151.19, + "return_pct": 91.51 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-29", + "equity": 19466.7, + "return_pct": 94.67 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-30", + "equity": 19618.28, + "return_pct": 96.18 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-01", + "equity": 19591.75, + "return_pct": 95.92 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-02", + "equity": 19566.01, + "return_pct": 95.66 + } + ] + } + ], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260708-atr-trail-sweep.json b/reports/backtest-20260708-atr-trail-sweep.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b466fad --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260708-atr-trail-sweep.json @@ -0,0 +1,104858 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-08T20:53:22.686439+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": null, + "net_total_r": null, + "best_r": null, + "worst_r": null, + "avg_hold_days": null, + "net_r_per_day": null, + "median_net_r": null, + "profit_factor": null, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null + } + }, + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "atr_trail_sweep": [ + { + "atr_mult": 1.5, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 21448.4, + "total_return_pct": 114.5, + "cagr_pct": 21.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 27.2, + "sharpe": 1.11, + "trades": 527, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 21.72, + "best_trade_r": 8.43, + "worst_trade_r": -2.51, + "best_trade_pnl": 1135.54, + "worst_trade_pnl": -365.72, + "avg_hold_days": 8.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 59, + "time": 4, + "trailing_stop": 464 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 14.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -6.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 25.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 11.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "atr_mult": 2.0, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 28267.7, + "total_return_pct": 182.7, + "cagr_pct": 29.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 26.7, + "sharpe": 1.38, + "trades": 434, + "win_rate": 37.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 42.09, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.96, + "best_trade_pnl": 1639.04, + "worst_trade_pnl": -472.08, + "avg_hold_days": 11.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 149, + "time": 31, + "trailing_stop": 254 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 16.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 6.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 38.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 17.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "atr_mult": 2.5, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 36434.28, + "total_return_pct": 264.3, + "cagr_pct": 38.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.6, + "sharpe": 1.66, + "trades": 392, + "win_rate": 37.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 67.43, + "best_trade_r": 10.21, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 2239.36, + "worst_trade_pnl": -631.82, + "avg_hold_days": 13.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 166, + "time": 63, + "trailing_stop": 163 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 15.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 25.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 44.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 54.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 12.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "atr_mult": 3.0, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 41537.11, + "total_return_pct": 315.4, + "cagr_pct": 42.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.0, + "sharpe": 1.8, + "trades": 369, + "win_rate": 36.3, + "avg_trade_pnl": 85.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 4387.05, + "worst_trade_pnl": -617.4, + "avg_hold_days": 15.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 169, + "time": 84, + "trailing_stop": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 19.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 46.8 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 54.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 29.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "atr_mult": 3.5, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 36640.35, + "total_return_pct": 266.4, + "cagr_pct": 38.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.5, + "sharpe": 1.61, + "trades": 354, + "win_rate": 34.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 75.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3884.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -566.96, + "avg_hold_days": 15.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 90, + "trailing_stop": 80 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.6 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 20.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 34.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 46.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "atr_mult": 4.0, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 39909.53, + "total_return_pct": 299.1, + "cagr_pct": 41.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.1, + "sharpe": 1.73, + "trades": 349, + "win_rate": 36.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 85.7, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.96, + "best_trade_pnl": 4182.86, + "worst_trade_pnl": -584.26, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 188, + "time": 115, + "trailing_stop": 46 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 19.3 + }, + { + "year": 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"min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, + "total": 2321, + "wins": 724, + "losses": 1354, + "expired": 243, + "hit_rate": 34.8, + "avg_r": 0.121, + "total_r": 281.8, + "net_avg_r": 0.073, + "net_total_r": 169.61, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0061, + "median_net_r": -1.037, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.086 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, + "total": 3424, + "wins": 1034, + "losses": 2024, + "expired": 366, + "hit_rate": 33.8, + "avg_r": 0.091, + "total_r": 312.08, + "net_avg_r": 0.041, + "net_total_r": 140.92, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 12.0, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0034, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 1.06, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.115 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, + "total": 4700, + "wins": 1384, + "losses": 2797, + "expired": 519, + "hit_rate": 33.1, + "avg_r": 0.067, + "total_r": 315.63, + "net_avg_r": 0.016, + "net_total_r": 76.8, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.86, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0013, + "median_net_r": -1.042, + "profit_factor": 1.02, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.139 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, + "total": 17100, + "wins": 4186, + "losses": 10951, + "expired": 1963, + "hit_rate": 27.7, + "avg_r": -0.092, + "total_r": -1565.72, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -2408.12, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -15.94, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0116, + "median_net_r": -1.043, + "profit_factor": 0.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.304 + } + ], + "gate_ablation": [ + { + "variant": "all_floors", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_confidence_floor", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 6876, + "wins": 3102, + "losses": 3512, + "expired": 262, + "hit_rate": 46.9, + "avg_r": 0.111, + "total_r": 759.95, + "net_avg_r": 0.059, + "net_total_r": 407.72, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.16, + "avg_hold_days": 8.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0071, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": -1.025, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29849.63, + "total_return_pct": 198.5, + "cagr_pct": 31.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5, + "sharpe": 1.34, + "trades": 329, + "win_rate": 35.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 60.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.44, + "best_trade_pnl": 2897.39, + "worst_trade_pnl": -415.91, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 200, + "time": 129 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 24.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 39.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", + "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29973.13, + "total_return_pct": 199.7, + "cagr_pct": 31.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.6, + "sharpe": 1.38, + "trades": 277, + "win_rate": 36.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 72.11, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 2961.67, + "worst_trade_pnl": -445.41, + "avg_hold_days": 16.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 171, + "time": 106 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 5.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 31.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + 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8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 947.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.7, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 92, + "time": 67 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.9 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12999.76, + "total_return_pct": 30.0, + "cagr_pct": 6.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 10.9, + "sharpe": 0.96, + "trades": 80, + "win_rate": 41.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 37.5, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 792.28, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.46, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 46, + "time": 34 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 8.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 4.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 0.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + 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"variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 31732.93, + "total_return_pct": 217.3, + "cagr_pct": 33.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.2, + "sharpe": 1.4, + "trades": 305, + "win_rate": 34.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 71.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 3625.18, + "worst_trade_pnl": -657.81, + "avg_hold_days": 16.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 189, + "time": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 17, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 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"final_equity": 35208.61, + "total_return_pct": 252.1, + "cagr_pct": 32.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 32.8, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.34, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3846.17, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1933.2, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 299, + "time": 192 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 830, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -23.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 33.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 7.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 42380.61, + "total_return_pct": 323.8, + "cagr_pct": 37.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 37.6, + "sharpe": 1.22, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 34.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 65.95, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 4241.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -2017.48, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 304, + "time": 187 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 526, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 73.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 24.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33862.01, + "total_return_pct": 238.6, + "cagr_pct": 31.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 39.7, + "sharpe": 1.05, + "trades": 463, + "win_rate": 32.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.54, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3417.68, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1768.31, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 294, + "time": 169 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 228, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.6 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -30.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 96.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 14.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 10176.3, + "total_return_pct": 1.8, + "cagr_pct": 0.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.1, + "sharpe": 0.09, + "trades": 257, + "win_rate": 30.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 0.69, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 591.16, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.29, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 170, + "time": 87 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -1.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -8.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38595.83, + "total_return_pct": 286.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.64, + "trades": 449, + "win_rate": 29.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 63.69, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4299.76, + "worst_trade_pnl": -452.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 210, + "stop": 140, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 125 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 31.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 25.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 43661.53, + "total_return_pct": 336.6, + "cagr_pct": 44.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.72, + "trades": 376, + "win_rate": 35.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 89.53, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": 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Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12261.14, + "total_return_pct": 22.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 34, + "win_rate": 44.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 66.5, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1332.91, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.62, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 16 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10077.54, + "return_pct": 0.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 9993.84, + "return_pct": -0.06 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10194.13, + "return_pct": 1.94 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10358.65, + "return_pct": 3.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10344.26, + "return_pct": 3.44 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-15", + "equity": 10432.2, + "return_pct": 4.32 + }, + { + "date": 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Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260708-bluesky-targets.json b/reports/backtest-20260708-bluesky-targets.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01527a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260708-bluesky-targets.json @@ -0,0 +1,104704 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-08T19:46:48.482573+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 207205, + "qualified": 1912, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1912, + "wins": 659, + "losses": 1083, + "expired": 170, + "hit_rate": 37.8, + "avg_r": 0.182, + "total_r": 347.15, + "net_avg_r": 0.133, + "net_total_r": 255.02, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.1, + "net_r_per_day": 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2278, + "expired": 378, + "hit_rate": 34.6, + "avg_r": 0.095, + "total_r": 367.55, + "net_avg_r": 0.045, + "net_total_r": 172.28, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.6, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0038, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 1.07, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.109 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, + "total": 5141, + "wins": 1562, + "losses": 3053, + "expired": 526, + "hit_rate": 33.8, + "avg_r": 0.075, + "total_r": 386.68, + "net_avg_r": 0.024, + "net_total_r": 123.7, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.002, + "median_net_r": -1.042, + "profit_factor": 1.04, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.129 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, + "total": 17629, + "wins": 4388, + "losses": 11259, + "expired": 1982, + "hit_rate": 28.0, + "avg_r": -0.085, + "total_r": -1492.42, + "net_avg_r": -0.134, + "net_total_r": -2363.83, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -15.94, + "avg_hold_days": 12.0, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0111, + "median_net_r": -1.043, + "profit_factor": 0.81, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.297 + } + ], + "gate_ablation": [ + { + "variant": "all_floors", + "total": 2411, + "wins": 823, + "losses": 1402, + "expired": 186, + "hit_rate": 37.0, + "avg_r": 0.137, + "total_r": 329.91, + "net_avg_r": 0.084, + "net_total_r": 202.56, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0078, + "median_net_r": -1.036, + "profit_factor": 1.13, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.065, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.433, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.38, + "hold_total_r": 1044.23 + }, + { + "variant": "no_confidence_floor", + "total": 2411, + "wins": 823, + "losses": 1402, + "expired": 186, + "hit_rate": 37.0, + "avg_r": 0.137, + "total_r": 329.91, + "net_avg_r": 0.084, + "net_total_r": 202.56, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0078, + "median_net_r": -1.036, + "profit_factor": 1.13, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.065, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.433, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.38, + "hold_total_r": 1044.23 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 8052, + "wins": 3508, + "losses": 4245, + "expired": 299, + "hit_rate": 45.2, + "avg_r": 0.099, + "total_r": 798.84, + "net_avg_r": 0.046, + "net_total_r": 372.18, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 8.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0054, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 1.08, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.078, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.327, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.274, + "hold_total_r": 2631.18 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 4861, + "wins": 1607, + "losses": 2788, + "expired": 466, + "hit_rate": 36.6, + "avg_r": 0.14, + "total_r": 681.88, + "net_avg_r": 0.091, + "net_total_r": 442.79, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0077, + "median_net_r": -1.033, + "profit_factor": 1.14, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.458, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.409, + "hold_total_r": 2227.75 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 15786, + "wins": 6574, + "losses": 8436, + "expired": 776, + "hit_rate": 43.8, + "avg_r": 0.109, + "total_r": 1726.51, + "net_avg_r": 0.059, + "net_total_r": 924.63, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0062, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.067, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.38, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.33, + "hold_total_r": 6004.87 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1912, + "wins": 1022, + "win_rate": 53.5, + "avg_r": 0.144, + "total_r": 275.89, + "net_avg_r": 0.096, + "net_total_r": 183.77, + "best_r": 7.45, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0217, + "median_net_r": 0.072, + "profit_factor": 1.25, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.044 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1912, + "wins": 944, + "win_rate": 49.4, + "avg_r": 0.297, + "total_r": 567.6, + "net_avg_r": 0.249, + "net_total_r": 475.47, + "best_r": 9.14, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 7.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0324, + "median_net_r": -0.105, + "profit_factor": 1.5, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.034 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1912, + "wins": 787, + "win_rate": 41.2, + "avg_r": 0.437, + "total_r": 835.28, + "net_avg_r": 0.389, + "net_total_r": 743.15, + "best_r": 20.75, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 13.1, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0296, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.61, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.06 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1912, + "wins": 683, + "win_rate": 35.7, + "avg_r": 0.5, + "total_r": 956.0, + "net_avg_r": 0.452, + "net_total_r": 863.87, + "best_r": 24.78, + "worst_r": -6.35, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0268, + "median_net_r": -1.037, + "profit_factor": 1.64, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.04 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 26748.47, + "total_return_pct": 167.5, + "cagr_pct": 27.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.0, + "sharpe": 1.27, + "trades": 529, + "win_rate": 40.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 31.66, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.7, + "best_trade_pnl": 1002.04, + "worst_trade_pnl": -412.31, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 308, + "target": 189, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 5.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 7.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 30.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 26.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37048.42, + "total_return_pct": 270.5, + "cagr_pct": 38.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.6, + "sharpe": 1.44, + "trades": 371, + "win_rate": 34.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 72.91, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.32, + "best_trade_pnl": 3493.97, + "worst_trade_pnl": -491.38, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 235, + "time": 136 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 8.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 23.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 35.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 45.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 39765.6, + "total_return_pct": 297.7, + "cagr_pct": 41.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.2, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 374, + "win_rate": 34.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.59, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.32, + "best_trade_pnl": 3746.75, + "worst_trade_pnl": -535.95, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 235, + "time": 139 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 56.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 28.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 43.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 28217.24, + "total_return_pct": 182.2, + "cagr_pct": 29.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, + "sharpe": 1.17, + "trades": 351, + "win_rate": 33.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.9, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.32, + "best_trade_pnl": 2664.02, + "worst_trade_pnl": -678.39, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 220, + "time": 131 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 8, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 16.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 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}, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 15.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 36.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 40.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 39765.6, + "total_return_pct": 297.7, + "cagr_pct": 41.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.2, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 374, + "win_rate": 34.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.59, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.32, + "best_trade_pnl": 3746.75, + "worst_trade_pnl": -535.95, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 235, + "time": 139 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 56.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 28.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 43.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13676.1, + "total_return_pct": 36.8, + "cagr_pct": 8.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.3, + "sharpe": 0.69, + "trades": 266, + "win_rate": 34.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 13.82, + "best_trade_r": 15.5, + "worst_trade_r": -2.7, + "best_trade_pnl": 1308.85, + "worst_trade_pnl": -232.26, + "avg_hold_days": 15.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 172, + "time": 94 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 8.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 31.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -13.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 14.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 11020.97, + "total_return_pct": 10.2, + 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"residual80_highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 59985.05, + "total_return_pct": 499.9, + "cagr_pct": 56.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 20.5, + "sharpe": 1.82, + "trades": 318, + "win_rate": 39.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 157.19, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.51, + "best_trade_pnl": 5815.7, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1143.25, + "avg_hold_days": 17.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 134 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 4.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 38.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 49.0 + }, + 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"max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 48445.92, + "total_return_pct": 384.5, + "cagr_pct": 41.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 40.4, + "sharpe": 1.24, + "trades": 504, + "win_rate": 33.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 76.28, + "best_trade_r": 20.55, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 5321.58, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1835.79, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 316, + "time": 188 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 674, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.1 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -32.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 76.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 60.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + 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}, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 9417.66, + "total_return_pct": -5.8, + "cagr_pct": -1.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.0, + "sharpe": -0.04, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 28.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": -1.69, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -10.33, + "best_trade_pnl": 560.52, + "worst_trade_pnl": -526.45, + "avg_hold_days": 15.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 236, + "time": 109 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 1.2 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -6.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -9.3 + }, + { + "year": 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Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 55998.78, + "total_return_pct": 460.0, + "cagr_pct": 53.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.3, + "sharpe": 1.74, + "trades": 372, + "win_rate": 36.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 123.65, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.32, + "best_trade_pnl": 5188.37, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1152.17, + "avg_hold_days": 17.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 223, + "time": 149 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 10.8 + }, + { + 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Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": 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Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +52.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.78, max drawdown -18.7%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.45R net/trade vs +0.13R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +38.6% vs +27.8% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.11R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the NEUTRAL exclusion adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs -0.03R/trade and adds 2450 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.13R over 1912 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +174.8 points (+270.5% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221221.6%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.04R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +41.1% vs +41.1%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.8% vs 18.2%, CAGR +36.5% vs +41.1%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 0.81 vs 1.51, drawdown 16.2% vs 18.2%, CAGR +12.2% vs +41.1%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.62 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.0% vs 18.2%, CAGR +48.7% vs +41.1%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260708-regime-overlay.json b/reports/backtest-20260708-regime-overlay.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e644732 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260708-regime-overlay.json @@ -0,0 +1,104715 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-08T21:24:32.888852+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": null, + 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8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0124, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 1.23, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.02 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, + "total": 2321, + "wins": 724, + "losses": 1354, + "expired": 243, + "hit_rate": 34.8, + "avg_r": 0.121, + "total_r": 281.8, + "net_avg_r": 0.073, + "net_total_r": 169.61, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0061, + "median_net_r": -1.037, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.086 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, + "total": 3424, + "wins": 1034, + "losses": 2024, + "expired": 366, + "hit_rate": 33.8, + "avg_r": 0.091, + "total_r": 312.08, + "net_avg_r": 0.041, + "net_total_r": 140.92, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 12.0, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0034, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 1.06, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.115 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, + "total": 4700, + "wins": 1384, + "losses": 2797, + "expired": 519, + "hit_rate": 33.1, + "avg_r": 0.067, + "total_r": 315.63, + "net_avg_r": 0.016, + "net_total_r": 76.8, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.86, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0013, + "median_net_r": -1.042, + "profit_factor": 1.02, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.139 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, + "total": 17100, + "wins": 4186, + "losses": 10951, + "expired": 1963, + "hit_rate": 27.7, + "avg_r": -0.092, + "total_r": -1565.72, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -2408.12, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -15.94, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0116, + "median_net_r": -1.043, + "profit_factor": 0.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.304 + } + ], + "gate_ablation": [ + { + "variant": "all_floors", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_confidence_floor", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 6876, + "wins": 3102, + "losses": 3512, + "expired": 262, + "hit_rate": 46.9, + "avg_r": 0.111, + "total_r": 759.95, + "net_avg_r": 0.059, + "net_total_r": 407.72, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.16, + "avg_hold_days": 8.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0071, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": -1.025, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29849.63, + "total_return_pct": 198.5, + "cagr_pct": 31.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5, + "sharpe": 1.34, + "trades": 329, + "win_rate": 35.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 60.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.44, + "best_trade_pnl": 2897.39, + "worst_trade_pnl": -415.91, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 200, + "time": 129 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 24.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + 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Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38595.83, + "total_return_pct": 286.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.64, + "trades": 449, + "win_rate": 29.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 63.69, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4299.76, + "worst_trade_pnl": -452.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 210, + "stop": 140, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 125 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 31.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 25.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 43661.53, + "total_return_pct": 336.6, + "cagr_pct": 44.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.72, + "trades": 376, + "win_rate": 35.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 89.53, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 83, + "trailing_stop": 109 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 30, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 36.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 52.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 33.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12261.14, + "total_return_pct": 22.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 34, + "win_rate": 44.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 66.5, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1332.91, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.62, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 16 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10077.54, + "return_pct": 0.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 9993.84, + "return_pct": -0.06 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10194.13, + "return_pct": 1.94 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10358.65, + "return_pct": 3.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10344.26, + "return_pct": 3.44 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-15", + "equity": 10432.2, + "return_pct": 4.32 + }, + { + "date": 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19566.01, + "return_pct": 95.66 + } + ] + } + ], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260709-cutoff-x-booksize.json b/reports/backtest-20260709-cutoff-x-booksize.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..20fb80a --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260709-cutoff-x-booksize.json @@ -0,0 +1,105011 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-09T06:10:14.733923+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": null, + "net_total_r": null, + "best_r": null, + "worst_r": null, + "avg_hold_days": null, + "net_r_per_day": null, + "median_net_r": null, + "profit_factor": null, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null + } + }, + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "cutoff_book_sweep": [ + { + "cutoff": 80.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 41537.11, + "total_return_pct": 315.4, + "cagr_pct": 42.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.0, + "sharpe": 1.8, + "trades": 369, + "win_rate": 36.3, + "avg_trade_pnl": 85.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 4387.05, + "worst_trade_pnl": -617.4, + "avg_hold_days": 15.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 169, + "time": 84, + "trailing_stop": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 19.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 46.8 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 54.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 29.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "cutoff": 80.0, + "max_positions": 15, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 41537.11, + "total_return_pct": 315.4, + "cagr_pct": 42.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.0, + "sharpe": 1.8, + "trades": 369, + "win_rate": 36.3, + "avg_trade_pnl": 85.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 4387.05, + "worst_trade_pnl": -617.4, + "avg_hold_days": 15.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 169, + "time": 84, + "trailing_stop": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 19.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 46.8 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 54.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 29.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "cutoff": 80.0, + "max_positions": 20, + 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"avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 6876, + "wins": 3102, + "losses": 3512, + "expired": 262, + "hit_rate": 46.9, + "avg_r": 0.111, + "total_r": 759.95, + "net_avg_r": 0.059, + "net_total_r": 407.72, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.16, + "avg_hold_days": 8.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0071, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": -1.025, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29849.63, + "total_return_pct": 198.5, + "cagr_pct": 31.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.5, + "sharpe": 1.34, + "trades": 329, + "win_rate": 35.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 60.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.44, + "best_trade_pnl": 2897.39, + "worst_trade_pnl": -415.91, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 200, + "time": 129 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 24.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 39.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", + "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 29973.13, + "total_return_pct": 199.7, + "cagr_pct": 31.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.6, + "sharpe": 1.38, + "trades": 277, + "win_rate": 36.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 72.11, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 2961.67, + "worst_trade_pnl": -445.41, + "avg_hold_days": 16.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 171, + "time": 106 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 5.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 31.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + 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8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 947.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.7, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 92, + "time": 67 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.9 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12999.76, + "total_return_pct": 30.0, + "cagr_pct": 6.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 10.9, + "sharpe": 0.96, + "trades": 80, + "win_rate": 41.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 37.5, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 792.28, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.46, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 46, + "time": 34 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 8.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 4.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 0.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + 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"variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 31732.93, + "total_return_pct": 217.3, + "cagr_pct": 33.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.2, + "sharpe": 1.4, + "trades": 305, + "win_rate": 34.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 71.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 3625.18, + "worst_trade_pnl": -657.81, + "avg_hold_days": 16.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 189, + "time": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 17, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 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"final_equity": 35208.61, + "total_return_pct": 252.1, + "cagr_pct": 32.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 32.8, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.34, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3846.17, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1933.2, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 299, + "time": 192 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 830, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -23.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 33.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 7.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 42380.61, + "total_return_pct": 323.8, + "cagr_pct": 37.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 37.6, + "sharpe": 1.22, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 34.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 65.95, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 4241.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -2017.48, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 304, + "time": 187 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 526, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 73.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 24.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33862.01, + "total_return_pct": 238.6, + "cagr_pct": 31.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 39.7, + "sharpe": 1.05, + "trades": 463, + "win_rate": 32.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.54, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3417.68, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1768.31, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 294, + "time": 169 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 228, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.6 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -30.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 96.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 14.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 10176.3, + "total_return_pct": 1.8, + "cagr_pct": 0.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.1, + "sharpe": 0.09, + "trades": 257, + "win_rate": 30.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 0.69, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 591.16, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.29, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 170, + "time": 87 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -1.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -8.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38595.83, + "total_return_pct": 286.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.64, + "trades": 449, + "win_rate": 29.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 63.69, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4299.76, + "worst_trade_pnl": -452.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 210, + "stop": 140, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 125 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 31.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 25.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 43661.53, + "total_return_pct": 336.6, + "cagr_pct": 44.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.72, + "trades": 376, + "win_rate": 35.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 89.53, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": 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Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12261.14, + "total_return_pct": 22.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 34, + "win_rate": 44.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 66.5, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1332.91, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.62, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 16 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10077.54, + "return_pct": 0.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 9993.84, + "return_pct": -0.06 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10194.13, + "return_pct": 1.94 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10358.65, + "return_pct": 3.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10344.26, + "return_pct": 3.44 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-15", + "equity": 10432.2, + "return_pct": 4.32 + }, + { + "date": 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19566.01, + "return_pct": 95.66 + } + ] + } + ], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing-oos.json b/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing-oos.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c6aecd9 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing-oos.json @@ -0,0 +1,105413 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-09T07:28:48.616453+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + 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0.0071, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": 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If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "avg_exposure_pct": 75.1, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 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"spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 5.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 31.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": 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"sharpe": 1.26, + "avg_exposure_pct": 51.8, + "trades": 159, + "win_rate": 42.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 39.31, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 947.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.7, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 92, + "time": 67 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.9 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12999.76, + "total_return_pct": 30.0, + "cagr_pct": 6.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 10.9, + "sharpe": 0.96, + "avg_exposure_pct": 28.6, + "trades": 80, + "win_rate": 41.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 37.5, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -2.47, + "best_trade_pnl": 792.28, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.46, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 46, + "time": 34 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 8.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 4.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 0.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 27000.98, + "total_return_pct": 170.0, + "cagr_pct": 28.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 20.8, + "sharpe": 1.46, + "avg_exposure_pct": 85.8, + "trades": 343, + "win_rate": 35.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 49.57, + "best_trade_r": 10.81, + "worst_trade_r": -2.25, + "best_trade_pnl": 1666.33, + "worst_trade_pnl": -450.29, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 216, + "time": 127 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 20.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 60.5 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 45.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 0.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": 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"time": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 17, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 30.8 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 59.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 10.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 31120.32, + "total_return_pct": 211.2, + "cagr_pct": 32.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.9, + "sharpe": 1.4, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.1, + "trades": 354, + "win_rate": 35.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 59.66, + 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"max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 42000.63, + "total_return_pct": 320.0, + "cagr_pct": 43.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.6, + "sharpe": 1.68, + "avg_exposure_pct": 85.2, + "trades": 346, + "win_rate": 37.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 92.49, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 4193.16, + "worst_trade_pnl": -641.22, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 202, + "time": 144 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.6 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 33.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 39.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 33.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38911.28, + "total_return_pct": 289.1, + "cagr_pct": 40.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.5, + "sharpe": 1.6, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.6, + "trades": 347, + "win_rate": 37.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 83.32, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 3913.77, + "worst_trade_pnl": -688.96, + "avg_hold_days": 17.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 142 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 34.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 37.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 32.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 70.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 35208.61, + "total_return_pct": 252.1, + "cagr_pct": 32.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 32.8, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "avg_exposure_pct": 91.3, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.34, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3846.17, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1933.2, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 299, + "time": 192 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 830, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -23.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 33.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 7.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 42380.61, + "total_return_pct": 323.8, + "cagr_pct": 37.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 37.6, + "sharpe": 1.22, + "avg_exposure_pct": 90.2, + "trades": 491, + "win_rate": 34.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 65.95, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 4241.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -2017.48, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 304, + "time": 187 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 526, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.8 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 88.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 73.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 24.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33862.01, + "total_return_pct": 238.6, + "cagr_pct": 31.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 39.7, + "sharpe": 1.05, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.9, + "trades": 463, + "win_rate": 32.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.54, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3417.68, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1768.31, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 294, + "time": 169 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 228, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.6 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -30.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 96.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 44.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 14.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 10176.3, + "total_return_pct": 1.8, + "cagr_pct": 0.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.1, + "sharpe": 0.09, + "avg_exposure_pct": 70.6, + "trades": 257, + "win_rate": 30.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 0.69, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 591.16, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.29, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 170, + "time": 87 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -1.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -8.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + 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95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "avg_exposure_pct": 83.9, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 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"avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 43661.53, + "total_return_pct": 336.6, + "cagr_pct": 44.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.72, + "avg_exposure_pct": 81.6, + "trades": 376, + "win_rate": 35.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 89.53, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 83, + "trailing_stop": 109 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 30, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 36.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 52.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 33.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. 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Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing.json b/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7f9de4a --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260709-position-sizing.json @@ -0,0 +1,104859 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-09T06:57:09.192966+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": 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If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "avg_exposure_pct": 75.1, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 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Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38595.83, + "total_return_pct": 286.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.64, + "avg_exposure_pct": 76.3, + "trades": 449, + "win_rate": 29.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 63.69, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4299.76, + "worst_trade_pnl": -452.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 210, + "stop": 140, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "avg_exposure_pct": 83.9, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 125 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 31.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 25.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "avg_exposure_pct": 84.8, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + 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-2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 83, + "trailing_stop": 109 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 30, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 36.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 52.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 33.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12261.14, + "total_return_pct": 22.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "avg_exposure_pct": 74.1, + "trades": 34, + "win_rate": 44.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 66.5, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1332.91, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.62, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 16 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10077.54, + "return_pct": 0.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 9993.84, + "return_pct": -0.06 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10194.13, + "return_pct": 1.94 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10358.65, + "return_pct": 3.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10344.26, + "return_pct": 3.44 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-15", + "equity": 10432.2, + "return_pct": 4.32 + }, 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"date": "2026-06-04", + "equity": 19889.4, + "return_pct": 98.89 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-05", + "equity": 19376.07, + "return_pct": 93.76 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-08", + "equity": 19419.94, + "return_pct": 94.2 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-09", + "equity": 19362.93, + "return_pct": 93.63 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-10", + "equity": 19057.66, + "return_pct": 90.58 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-11", + "equity": 19381.58, + "return_pct": 93.82 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-12", + "equity": 19486.4, + "return_pct": 94.86 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-15", + "equity": 19830.03, + "return_pct": 98.3 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-16", + "equity": 19711.81, + "return_pct": 97.12 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-17", + "equity": 19465.65, + "return_pct": 94.66 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-18", + "equity": 19617.5, + "return_pct": 96.17 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-22", + "equity": 19555.76, + "return_pct": 95.56 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-23", + "equity": 19271.77, + "return_pct": 92.72 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-24", + "equity": 19262.84, + "return_pct": 92.63 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-25", + "equity": 19290.69, + "return_pct": 92.91 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-26", + "equity": 19151.19, + "return_pct": 91.51 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-29", + "equity": 19466.7, + "return_pct": 94.67 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-30", + "equity": 19618.28, + "return_pct": 96.18 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-01", + "equity": 19591.75, + "return_pct": 95.92 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-02", + "equity": 19566.01, + "return_pct": 95.66 + } + ] + } + ], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-control.json b/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-control.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e22ef79 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-control.json @@ -0,0 +1,104583 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-10T12:10:02.587425+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1428, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "overall_all": { + "total": 202765, + "wins": 66589, + "losses": 123284, + "expired": 12892, + "hit_rate": 35.1, + "avg_r": -0.087, + "total_r": -17555.44, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -28553.82, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -16.42, + "avg_hold_days": 9.8, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0143, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 0.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.283 + }, + "by_direction": { + "long": { + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + "short": { + "total": 0, + "wins": 0, + "losses": 0, + "expired": 0, + "hit_rate": null, + "avg_r": null, + "total_r": null, + "net_avg_r": null, + "net_total_r": null, + "best_r": null, + "worst_r": null, + "avg_hold_days": null, + "net_r_per_day": null, + "median_net_r": null, + "profit_factor": null, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null + } + }, + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "sweep": [ + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0, + "total": 697, + "wins": 226, + "losses": 393, + "expired": 78, + "hit_rate": 36.5, + "avg_r": 0.187, + "total_r": 130.2, + "net_avg_r": 0.146, + "net_total_r": 101.74, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0124, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 1.23, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.02 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0, + "total": 2321, + "wins": 724, + "losses": 1354, + "expired": 243, + "hit_rate": 34.8, + "avg_r": 0.121, + "total_r": 281.8, + "net_avg_r": 0.073, + "net_total_r": 169.61, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0061, + "median_net_r": -1.037, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.086 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, + "total": 3424, + "wins": 1034, + "losses": 2024, + "expired": 366, + "hit_rate": 33.8, + "avg_r": 0.091, + "total_r": 312.08, + "net_avg_r": 0.041, + "net_total_r": 140.92, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.21, + "avg_hold_days": 12.0, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0034, + "median_net_r": -1.04, + "profit_factor": 1.06, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.115 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0, + "total": 4700, + "wins": 1384, + "losses": 2797, + "expired": 519, + "hit_rate": 33.1, + "avg_r": 0.067, + "total_r": 315.63, + "net_avg_r": 0.016, + "net_total_r": 76.8, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.86, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0013, + "median_net_r": -1.042, + "profit_factor": 1.02, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.139 + }, + { + "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, + "total": 17100, + "wins": 4186, + "losses": 10951, + "expired": 1963, + "hit_rate": 27.7, + "avg_r": -0.092, + "total_r": -1565.72, + "net_avg_r": -0.141, + "net_total_r": -2408.12, + "best_r": 9.24, + "worst_r": -15.94, + "avg_hold_days": 12.1, + "net_r_per_day": -0.0116, + "median_net_r": -1.043, + "profit_factor": 0.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.304 + } + ], + "gate_ablation": [ + { + "variant": "all_floors", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_confidence_floor", + "total": 1428, + "wins": 471, + "losses": 799, + "expired": 158, + "hit_rate": 37.1, + "avg_r": 0.197, + "total_r": 281.38, + "net_avg_r": 0.151, + "net_total_r": 215.91, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0127, + "median_net_r": -1.03, + "profit_factor": 1.24, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.009, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.555, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.509, + "hold_total_r": 792.41 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 6876, + "wins": 3102, + "losses": 3512, + "expired": 262, + "hit_rate": 46.9, + "avg_r": 0.111, + "total_r": 759.95, + "net_avg_r": 0.059, + "net_total_r": 407.72, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.16, + "avg_hold_days": 8.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0071, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.068, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 3901, + "wins": 1256, + "losses": 2201, + "expired": 444, + "hit_rate": 36.3, + "avg_r": 0.158, + "total_r": 618.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 439.65, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -4.74, + "avg_hold_days": 12.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.009, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.18, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.036, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.503, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.457, + "hold_total_r": 1962.48 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6198, + "losses": 7750, + "expired": 748, + "hit_rate": 44.4, + "avg_r": 0.115, + "total_r": 1684.21, + "net_avg_r": 0.065, + "net_total_r": 951.49, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 9.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0069, + "median_net_r": -1.025, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 777, + "win_rate": 54.4, + "avg_r": 0.159, + "total_r": 226.99, + "net_avg_r": 0.113, + "net_total_r": 161.52, + "best_r": 5.84, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0252, + "median_net_r": 0.094, + "profit_factor": 1.31, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.021 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 719, + "win_rate": 50.4, + "avg_r": 0.309, + "total_r": 441.47, + "net_avg_r": 0.263, + "net_total_r": 376.0, + "best_r": 7.53, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0338, + "median_net_r": -0.024, + "profit_factor": 1.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.068 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 616, + "win_rate": 43.1, + "avg_r": 0.448, + "total_r": 639.27, + "net_avg_r": 0.402, + "net_total_r": 573.81, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 13.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0298, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.66, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1428, + "wins": 542, + "win_rate": 38.0, + "avg_r": 0.555, + "total_r": 792.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.509, + "net_total_r": 726.95, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.91, + "avg_hold_days": 17.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0293, + "median_net_r": -1.034, + "profit_factor": 1.76, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.136 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 23646.77, + "total_return_pct": 136.5, + "cagr_pct": 23.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.3, + "sharpe": 1.2, + "trades": 465, + "win_rate": 40.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 29.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1084.03, + "worst_trade_pnl": -438.05, + "avg_hold_days": 10.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 270, + "target": 157, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 2.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 43.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 30.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 5.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33140.99, + "total_return_pct": 231.4, + "cagr_pct": 34.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 339, + "win_rate": 36.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 68.26, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.23, + "best_trade_pnl": 3473.45, + "worst_trade_pnl": -485.17, + "avg_hold_days": 16.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 204, + "time": 135 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 17.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.0 + 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}, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 10176.3, + "total_return_pct": 1.8, + "cagr_pct": 0.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.1, + "sharpe": 0.09, + "trades": 257, + "win_rate": 30.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 0.69, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 591.16, + "worst_trade_pnl": -184.29, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 170, + "time": 87 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 9.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -1.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -8.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38595.83, + "total_return_pct": 286.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.64, + "trades": 449, + "win_rate": 29.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 63.69, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4299.76, + "worst_trade_pnl": -452.35, + "avg_hold_days": 11.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 210, + "stop": 140, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 3.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 17.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 71.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 48.3 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38054.08, + "total_return_pct": 280.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.0, + "sharpe": 1.53, + "trades": 353, + "win_rate": 36.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 79.47, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -403.3, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 27, + "stop": 201, + "time": 125 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 31.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 25.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 51.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 37645.67, + "total_return_pct": 276.5, + "cagr_pct": 39.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.9, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 345, + "win_rate": 36.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 80.13, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.91, + "best_trade_pnl": 3837.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -570.03, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 205, + "time": 140 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 28.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 29.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 55.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 30.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 43661.53, + "total_return_pct": 336.6, + "cagr_pct": 44.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.8, + "sharpe": 1.72, + "trades": 376, + "win_rate": 35.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 89.53, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 4406.79, + "worst_trade_pnl": -769.81, + "avg_hold_days": 14.7, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 83, + "trailing_stop": 109 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 30, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 36.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 52.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 33.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "live_exit_mode": null, + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 12261.14, + "total_return_pct": 22.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.7, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 34, + "win_rate": 44.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 66.5, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1332.91, + "worst_trade_pnl": -188.62, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 16 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10077.54, + "return_pct": 0.78 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 9993.84, + "return_pct": -0.06 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10194.13, + "return_pct": 1.94 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10358.65, + "return_pct": 3.59 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10344.26, + "return_pct": 3.44 + }, + { + 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"return_pct": 97.12 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-17", + "equity": 19465.65, + "return_pct": 94.66 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-18", + "equity": 19617.5, + "return_pct": 96.17 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-22", + "equity": 19555.76, + "return_pct": 95.56 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-23", + "equity": 19271.77, + "return_pct": 92.72 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-24", + "equity": 19262.84, + "return_pct": 92.63 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-25", + "equity": 19290.69, + "return_pct": 92.91 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-26", + "equity": 19151.19, + "return_pct": 91.51 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-29", + "equity": 19466.7, + "return_pct": 94.67 + }, + { + "date": "2026-06-30", + "equity": 19618.28, + "return_pct": 96.18 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-01", + "equity": 19591.75, + "return_pct": 95.92 + }, + { + "date": "2026-07-02", + "equity": 19566.01, + "return_pct": 95.66 + } + ] + } + ], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +44.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.72, max drawdown -23.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.51R net/trade vs +0.15R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +34.8% vs +23.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.21R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.15R over 1428 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +135.7 points (+231.4% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221224.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.14R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.51 vs 1.51, CAGR +34.8% vs +34.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.38 vs 1.51, drawdown 18.6% vs 24.4%, CAGR +31.7% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.46 vs 1.51, drawdown 20.8% vs 24.4%, CAGR +28.1% vs +34.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.51, drawdown 23.9% vs 24.4%, CAGR +39.2% vs +34.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-treatment.json b/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-treatment.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..776c397 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260710-primary-target-ab-treatment.json @@ -0,0 +1,104583 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-10T11:54:32.106665+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1096, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1096, + "wins": 381, + "losses": 599, + "expired": 116, + "hit_rate": 38.9, + "avg_r": 0.248, + "total_r": 272.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.202, + "net_total_r": 221.54, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + 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30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.301, + "hold_total_r": 2420.39 + }, + { + "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion", + "total": 2313, + "wins": 770, + "losses": 1279, + "expired": 264, + "hit_rate": 37.6, + "avg_r": 0.2, + "total_r": 462.35, + "net_avg_r": 0.154, + "net_total_r": 355.89, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 12.6, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0122, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.25, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.004, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.583, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.537, + "hold_total_r": 1348.89 + }, + { + "variant": "momentum_only", + "total": 14696, + "wins": 6827, + "losses": 7359, + "expired": 510, + "hit_rate": 48.1, + "avg_r": 0.114, + "total_r": 1669.64, + "net_avg_r": 0.064, + "net_total_r": 936.93, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.71, + "avg_hold_days": 8.4, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0076, + "median_net_r": -1.013, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.395, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345, + "hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1096, + "wins": 606, + "win_rate": 55.3, + "avg_r": 0.171, + "total_r": 187.22, + "net_avg_r": 0.125, + "net_total_r": 136.58, + "best_r": 5.09, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0276, + "median_net_r": 0.112, + "profit_factor": 1.35, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.005 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1096, + "wins": 563, + "win_rate": 51.4, + "avg_r": 0.353, + "total_r": 386.4, + "net_avg_r": 0.306, + "net_total_r": 335.76, + "best_r": 6.73, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.039, + "median_net_r": 0.025, + "profit_factor": 1.65, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.109 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1096, + "wins": 489, + "win_rate": 44.6, + "avg_r": 0.516, + "total_r": 565.52, + "net_avg_r": 0.47, + "net_total_r": 514.88, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 13.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0343, + "median_net_r": -1.028, + "profit_factor": 1.79, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.184 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1096, + "wins": 437, + "win_rate": 39.9, + "avg_r": 0.624, + "total_r": 684.25, + "net_avg_r": 0.578, + "net_total_r": 633.62, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 17.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0326, + "median_net_r": -1.033, + "profit_factor": 1.89, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.209 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 26013.78, + "total_return_pct": 160.1, + "cagr_pct": 26.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5, + "sharpe": 1.41, + "trades": 425, + "win_rate": 42.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 37.68, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1008.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -502.43, + "avg_hold_days": 10.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 239, + "target": 159, + "time": 27 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 5.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 49.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 4.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 49233.38, + "total_return_pct": 392.3, + "cagr_pct": 48.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.0, + "trades": 302, + "win_rate": 39.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 129.91, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5198.08, + "worst_trade_pnl": -533.43, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 176, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 50.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 60.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 49233.38, + "total_return_pct": 392.3, + "cagr_pct": 48.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.0, + "trades": 302, + "win_rate": 39.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 129.91, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5198.08, + "worst_trade_pnl": -533.43, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 176, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 50.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 60.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "legacy_raw_80_fixed10", + "label": "Legacy raw 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 31131.3, + "total_return_pct": 211.3, + "cagr_pct": 32.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 18.4, + "sharpe": 1.43, + "trades": 296, + "win_rate": 36.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 71.39, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -4.21, + "best_trade_pnl": 3043.57, + "worst_trade_pnl": -318.24, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 180, + "time": 116 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 14.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 9.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 46.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 31.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 29.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "raw_90_fixed10", + "label": "Raw 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "raw", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 31295.02, + "total_return_pct": 213.0, + "cagr_pct": 33.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 16.9, + "sharpe": 1.56, + "trades": 220, + "win_rate": 35.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 96.8, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.13, + "best_trade_pnl": 3199.24, + "worst_trade_pnl": -483.88, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 138, + "time": 82 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 6.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 20.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 41.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 49233.38, + "total_return_pct": 392.3, + "cagr_pct": 48.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.0, + "trades": 302, + "win_rate": 39.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 129.91, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5198.08, + "worst_trade_pnl": -533.43, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 176, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + 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-1.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 1106.92, + "worst_trade_pnl": -206.82, + "avg_hold_days": 19.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 60, + "time": 58 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 21.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 3.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 9.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 20.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13860.93, + "total_return_pct": 38.6, + "cagr_pct": 8.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.4, + "sharpe": 1.3, + "trades": 60, + "win_rate": 50.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 64.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -1.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 843.24, + "worst_trade_pnl": -129.59, + "avg_hold_days": 19.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 29, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 2.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 8.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": -0.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + 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"cagr_pct": 51.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.6, + "sharpe": 2.01, + "trades": 306, + "win_rate": 38.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 139.61, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.13, + "best_trade_pnl": 5322.5, + "worst_trade_pnl": -560.47, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 178, + "time": 128 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.6 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 49.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 45.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 63.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 70.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 33295.45, + "total_return_pct": 233.0, + "cagr_pct": 30.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 34.3, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 482, + "win_rate": 33.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 48.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3648.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1642.44, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 306, + "time": 176 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 611, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.7 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -22.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 83.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 57.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 25.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 20.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 34522.41, + "total_return_pct": 245.2, + "cagr_pct": 31.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 34.8, + "sharpe": 1.12, + "trades": 476, + "win_rate": 32.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.52, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3718.15, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1792.54, + "avg_hold_days": 16.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 304, + "time": 172 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 390, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.7 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -20.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 83.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 60.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 21.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 30474.87, + "total_return_pct": 204.7, + "cagr_pct": 28.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 36.2, + "sharpe": 1.02, + "trades": 428, + "win_rate": 32.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 47.84, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3156.52, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1732.85, + "avg_hold_days": 16.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 275, + "time": 153 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 146, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 103.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 47.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 29.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 8.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 10785.62, + "total_return_pct": 7.9, + "cagr_pct": 1.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.2, + "sharpe": 0.2, + "trades": 242, + "win_rate": 32.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 3.25, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 621.88, + "worst_trade_pnl": -195.82, + "avg_hold_days": 16.5, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 158, + "time": 84 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 15.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -2.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 2.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -13.9 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 8.5 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 52409.26, + "total_return_pct": 424.1, + "cagr_pct": 51.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.2, + "sharpe": 1.98, + "trades": 305, + "win_rate": 38.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 139.05, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5105.34, + "worst_trade_pnl": -557.57, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 179, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 74.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 38693.21, + "total_return_pct": 286.9, + "cagr_pct": 40.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.74, + "trades": 387, + "win_rate": 33.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 74.14, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 4321.53, + "worst_trade_pnl": -454.96, + "avg_hold_days": 12.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 162, + "stop": 130, + "time": 95 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 4, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 74.8 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 65.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 17.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 54244.43, + "total_return_pct": 442.4, + "cagr_pct": 52.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.9, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 307, + "win_rate": 37.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 144.12, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5284.11, + "worst_trade_pnl": -577.09, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 19, + "stop": 175, + "time": 113 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.6 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 39.5 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 83.9 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 34.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 52409.26, + "total_return_pct": 424.1, + "cagr_pct": 51.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.2, + "sharpe": 1.98, + "trades": 305, + "win_rate": 38.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 139.05, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5105.34, + "worst_trade_pnl": -557.57, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 179, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 40.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 74.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 51056.41, + "total_return_pct": 410.6, + "cagr_pct": 50.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, + "sharpe": 2.03, + "trades": 321, + "win_rate": 37.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 127.9, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.26, + "best_trade_pnl": 5043.78, + "worst_trade_pnl": -539.85, + "avg_hold_days": 15.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 145, + "time": 78, + "trailing_stop": 98 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 10.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 36.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 77.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "live_exit_mode": null, + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13158.33, + "total_return_pct": 31.6, + "cagr_pct": 72.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 6.8, + "sharpe": 3.15, + "trades": 31, + "win_rate": 41.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 101.88, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1389.22, + "worst_trade_pnl": -142.57, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 13 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 9.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 31.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2025-12-31", + "end_date": "2026-07-02", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2025-12-31", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-02", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-05", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-06", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-07", + "equity": 9990.34, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-08", + "equity": 10080.41, + "return_pct": 0.8 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-09", + "equity": 10127.43, + "return_pct": 1.27 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-12", + "equity": 10331.35, + "return_pct": 3.31 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-13", + "equity": 10442.28, + "return_pct": 4.42 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-14", + "equity": 10473.24, + "return_pct": 4.73 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-15", + "equity": 10541.56, + "return_pct": 5.42 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-16", + "equity": 10352.94, + "return_pct": 3.53 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-20", + "equity": 10400.77, + "return_pct": 4.01 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-21", + "equity": 10634.54, + "return_pct": 6.35 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-22", + "equity": 10760.66, + "return_pct": 7.61 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-23", + "equity": 10829.45, + "return_pct": 8.29 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-26", + "equity": 10863.78, + "return_pct": 8.64 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-27", + "equity": 10726.72, + "return_pct": 7.27 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-28", + "equity": 10630.33, + "return_pct": 6.3 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-29", + "equity": 10579.87, + "return_pct": 5.8 + }, + { + "date": "2026-01-30", + "equity": 10480.93, + "return_pct": 4.81 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-02", + "equity": 10548.96, + "return_pct": 5.49 + }, + { + "date": "2026-02-03", + "equity": 10786.74, + "return_pct": 7.87 + }, + { + "date": 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Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +50.2% CAGR, Sharpe 2.03, max drawdown -21.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.20R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +48.8% vs +26.9% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.00R/trade and adds 0 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.04R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.22R over 504 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +296.6 points (+392.3% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221215.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 2.00 vs 2.00, CAGR +48.8% vs +48.8%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.56 vs 2.00, drawdown 16.9% vs 15.8%, CAGR +33.1% vs +48.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.71 vs 2.00, drawdown 9.2% vs 15.8%, CAGR +16.7% vs +48.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.01 vs 2.00, drawdown 19.6% vs 15.8%, CAGR +51.4% vs +48.8%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260711-gate-prob-floor.json b/reports/backtest-20260711-gate-prob-floor.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..25b0ee4 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260711-gate-prob-floor.json @@ -0,0 +1,104583 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-11T07:30:34.720581+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1089, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1089, + "wins": 380, + "losses": 594, + "expired": 115, + "hit_rate": 39.0, + "avg_r": 0.253, + "total_r": 275.39, + "net_avg_r": 0.207, + "net_total_r": 225.11, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 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"hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.629, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.583, + "hold_total_r": 685.15 + }, + { + "variant": "no_confidence_floor", + "total": 1096, + "wins": 381, + "losses": 599, + "expired": 116, + "hit_rate": 38.9, + "avg_r": 0.248, + "total_r": 272.18, + "net_avg_r": 0.202, + "net_total_r": 221.54, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.017, + "median_net_r": -1.031, + "profit_factor": 1.33, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.044, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.624, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.578, + "hold_total_r": 684.25 + }, + { + "variant": "no_rr_floor", + "total": 6876, + "wins": 3246, + "losses": 3425, + "expired": 205, + "hit_rate": 48.7, + "avg_r": 0.111, + "total_r": 761.98, + "net_avg_r": 0.06, + "net_total_r": 409.76, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -5.16, + "avg_hold_days": 7.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0076, + "median_net_r": -0.063, + "profit_factor": 1.11, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.062, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.352, + 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"hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 604, + "win_rate": 55.5, + "avg_r": 0.174, + "total_r": 189.87, + "net_avg_r": 0.128, + "net_total_r": 139.59, + "best_r": 5.09, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0284, + "median_net_r": 0.116, + "profit_factor": 1.36, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 561, + "win_rate": 51.5, + "avg_r": 0.358, + "total_r": 389.52, + "net_avg_r": 0.312, + "net_total_r": 339.24, + "best_r": 6.73, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0396, + "median_net_r": 0.034, + "profit_factor": 1.67, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 487, + "win_rate": 44.7, + "avg_r": 0.523, + "total_r": 569.77, + "net_avg_r": 0.477, + "net_total_r": 519.49, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 13.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0348, + "median_net_r": -1.027, + "profit_factor": 1.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.19 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 435, + "win_rate": 39.9, + "avg_r": 0.629, + "total_r": 685.15, + "net_avg_r": 0.583, + "net_total_r": 634.87, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 17.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0328, + "median_net_r": -1.033, + "profit_factor": 1.89, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.211 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 27157.74, + "total_return_pct": 171.6, + "cagr_pct": 28.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5, + "sharpe": 1.47, + "trades": 422, + "win_rate": 42.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 40.66, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1008.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -517.91, + "avg_hold_days": 10.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 237, + "target": 158, + "time": 27 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 5.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 45.5 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 50.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 61.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + 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}, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 20.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 41.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 61.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 18540.74, + "total_return_pct": 85.4, + "cagr_pct": 16.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.9, + "sharpe": 1.73, + "trades": 116, + "win_rate": 49.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 73.63, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -1.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 1102.57, + "worst_trade_pnl": -206.01, + "avg_hold_days": 19.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 59, + "time": 57 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 21.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 3.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 8.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 21.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13860.93, + "total_return_pct": 38.6, + "cagr_pct": 8.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.4, + "sharpe": 1.3, + "trades": 60, + "win_rate": 50.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 64.35, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": -1.16, + "best_trade_pnl": 843.24, + "worst_trade_pnl": -129.59, + "avg_hold_days": 19.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 29, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 96.6, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 13.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 2.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 8.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": -0.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-13", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + 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"residual80_highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 34776.2, + "total_return_pct": 247.8, + "cagr_pct": 36.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.4, + "sharpe": 1.58, + "trades": 263, + "win_rate": 35.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 94.21, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.45, + "best_trade_pnl": 3878.11, + "worst_trade_pnl": -607.87, + "avg_hold_days": 16.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 164, + "time": 99 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 94.3, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 7.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 22.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 28.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 81.4 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 13.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 47712.82, + "total_return_pct": 377.1, + "cagr_pct": 47.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, + "sharpe": 1.89, + "trades": 306, + "win_rate": 37.3, + "avg_trade_pnl": 123.24, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5019.05, + "worst_trade_pnl": -535.68, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 184, + "time": 122 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 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"best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.13, + "best_trade_pnl": 5127.86, + "worst_trade_pnl": -559.72, + "avg_hold_days": 17.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 177, + "time": 129 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 49.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.4 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 61.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 53952.66, + "total_return_pct": 439.5, + 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"final_equity": 33295.45, + "total_return_pct": 233.0, + "cagr_pct": 30.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 34.3, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 482, + "win_rate": 33.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 48.33, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3648.23, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1642.44, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 306, + "time": 176 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 610, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.7 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -22.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 83.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 57.2 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 25.7 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 20.2 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 34522.41, + "total_return_pct": 245.2, + "cagr_pct": 31.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 34.8, + "sharpe": 1.12, + "trades": 476, + "win_rate": 32.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.52, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3718.15, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1792.54, + "avg_hold_days": 16.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 304, + "time": 172 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 390, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -0.7 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -20.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 83.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 60.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 21.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 22.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 30474.87, + "total_return_pct": 204.7, + "cagr_pct": 28.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 36.2, + "sharpe": 1.02, + "trades": 428, + "win_rate": 32.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 47.84, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -6.58, + "best_trade_pnl": 3156.52, + "worst_trade_pnl": -1732.85, + "avg_hold_days": 16.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 275, + "time": 153 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 146, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": -1.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 103.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 47.7 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 29.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 8.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "lowvol80_fixed10", + "label": "Low-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "low_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 11264.05, + "total_return_pct": 12.6, + "cagr_pct": 2.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.5, + "sharpe": 0.29, + "trades": 240, + "win_rate": 34.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 5.27, + "best_trade_r": 8.89, + "worst_trade_r": -2.77, + "best_trade_pnl": 621.88, + "worst_trade_pnl": -195.58, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 153, + "time": 87 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 56.2, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2021, + "return_pct": 0.3 + }, + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 14.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": -2.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 2.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": -10.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 8.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2021-12-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 53431.71, + "total_return_pct": 434.3, + "cagr_pct": 51.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.2, + "sharpe": 2.0, + "trades": 303, + "win_rate": 38.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 143.34, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5204.94, + "worst_trade_pnl": -568.44, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 177, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 75.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 39397.73, + "total_return_pct": 294.0, + "cagr_pct": 40.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.4, + "sharpe": 1.76, + "trades": 385, + "win_rate": 33.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 76.36, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 4400.22, + "worst_trade_pnl": -463.24, + "avg_hold_days": 12.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 162, + "stop": 128, + "time": 95 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 4, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 18.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 76.9 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 66.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 17.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 55298.65, + "total_return_pct": 453.0, + "cagr_pct": 53.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.9, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 305, + "win_rate": 37.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 148.52, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5386.8, + "worst_trade_pnl": -588.31, + "avg_hold_days": 16.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 19, + "stop": 173, + "time": 113 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.6 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 41.3 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 85.1 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 34.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 53431.71, + "total_return_pct": 434.3, + "cagr_pct": 51.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.2, + "sharpe": 2.0, + "trades": 303, + "win_rate": 38.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 143.34, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.76, + "best_trade_pnl": 5204.94, + "worst_trade_pnl": -568.44, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 177, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.9 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 75.8 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 51378.65, + "total_return_pct": 413.8, + "cagr_pct": 50.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 21.4, + "sharpe": 2.04, + "trades": 320, + "win_rate": 37.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 129.31, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -3.26, + "best_trade_pnl": 5075.62, + "worst_trade_pnl": -543.25, + "avg_hold_days": 15.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 144, + "time": 78, + "trailing_stop": 98 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 10.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 41.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 36.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 78.5 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 35.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + 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], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +50.4% CAGR, Sharpe 2.04, max drawdown -21.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +49.6% vs +28.3% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 500 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +308.0 points (+403.7% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221215.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 2.02 vs 2.02, CAGR +49.6% vs +49.6%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.59 vs 2.02, drawdown 16.9% vs 15.8%, CAGR +33.7% vs +49.6%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.73 vs 2.02, drawdown 8.9% vs 15.8%, CAGR +16.8% vs +49.6%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.03 vs 2.02, drawdown 19.6% vs 15.8%, CAGR +52.2% vs +49.6%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-20260711-prod-baseline.json b/reports/backtest-20260711-prod-baseline.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..987c5c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-20260711-prod-baseline.json @@ -0,0 +1,104583 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-11T08:05:52.402671+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 202765, + "qualified": 1089, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1 + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + "overall_qualified": { + "total": 1089, + "wins": 380, + "losses": 594, + "expired": 115, + "hit_rate": 39.0, + "avg_r": 0.253, + "total_r": 275.39, + "net_avg_r": 0.207, + "net_total_r": 225.11, + "best_r": 8.85, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0173, + 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"hold_total_r": 5798.82 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 604, + "win_rate": 55.5, + "avg_r": 0.174, + "total_r": 189.87, + "net_avg_r": 0.128, + "net_total_r": 139.59, + "best_r": 5.09, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0284, + "median_net_r": 0.116, + "profit_factor": 1.36, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 561, + "win_rate": 51.5, + "avg_r": 0.358, + "total_r": 389.52, + "net_avg_r": 0.312, + "net_total_r": 339.24, + "best_r": 6.73, + "worst_r": -2.51, + "avg_hold_days": 7.9, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0396, + "median_net_r": 0.034, + "profit_factor": 1.67, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.113 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 487, + "win_rate": 44.7, + "avg_r": 0.523, + "total_r": 569.77, + "net_avg_r": 0.477, + "net_total_r": 519.49, + "best_r": 9.86, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 13.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0348, + "median_net_r": -1.027, + "profit_factor": 1.8, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.19 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 1089, + "wins": 435, + "win_rate": 39.9, + "avg_r": 0.629, + "total_r": 685.15, + "net_avg_r": 0.583, + "net_total_r": 634.87, + "best_r": 12.87, + "worst_r": -3.38, + "avg_hold_days": 17.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0328, + "median_net_r": -1.033, + "profit_factor": 1.89, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.211 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 27157.74, + "total_return_pct": 171.6, + "cagr_pct": 28.3, + "max_drawdown_pct": 22.5, + "sharpe": 1.47, + "trades": 422, + "win_rate": 42.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 40.66, + "best_trade_r": 8.85, + "worst_trade_r": -2.68, + "best_trade_pnl": 1008.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -517.91, + "avg_hold_days": 10.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 237, + "target": 158, + "time": 27 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 11.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 5.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 45.5 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 50.0 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 6.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 61.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + 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}, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 20.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 42.6 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 41.6 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 23.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-06", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual_80_fixed15", + "label": "Residual 80 / max 15 capacity check", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 15, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 50373.37, + "total_return_pct": 403.7, + "cagr_pct": 49.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 15.8, + "sharpe": 2.02, + "trades": 300, + "win_rate": 39.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 134.58, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -2.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 5318.44, + "worst_trade_pnl": -545.78, + "avg_hold_days": 17.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 174, + "time": 126 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 95.7, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": 12.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.5 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 53.1 + }, + { + "year": 2025, + "return_pct": 61.2 + }, + { + "year": 2026, + "return_pct": 27.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-06-28", + "end_date": "2026-07-02" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 18540.74, + "total_return_pct": 85.4, + "cagr_pct": 16.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 8.9, + "sharpe": 1.73, + "trades": 116, + "win_rate": 49.1, + "avg_trade_pnl": 73.63, + "best_trade_r": 8.98, + "worst_trade_r": 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Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "live_exit_mode": null, + "lookback": "6m", + "lookback_label": "6 months", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13158.33, + "total_return_pct": 31.6, + "cagr_pct": 72.9, + "max_drawdown_pct": 6.8, + "sharpe": 3.15, + "trades": 31, + "win_rate": 41.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 101.88, + "best_trade_r": 12.87, + "worst_trade_r": -1.79, + "best_trade_pnl": 1389.22, + "worst_trade_pnl": -142.57, + "avg_hold_days": 16.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 18, + "time": 13 + }, + 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], + "note": "Portfolio monitor runs supported named strategies across cached lookbacks. Local snapshot backtests remain the research surface for broad variant sweeps." + }, + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +50.4% CAGR, Sharpe 2.04, max drawdown -21.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +49.6% vs +28.3% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 500 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +308.0 points (+403.7% vs +95.7%), max drawdown \u221215.8%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 2.02 vs 2.02, CAGR +49.6% vs +49.6%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 1.59 vs 2.02, drawdown 16.9% vs 15.8%, CAGR +33.7% vs +49.6%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10 Sharpe 1.73 vs 2.02, drawdown 8.9% vs 15.8%, CAGR +16.8% vs +49.6%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "High-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10 Sharpe 2.03 vs 2.02, drawdown 19.6% vs 15.8%, CAGR +52.2% vs +49.6%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/compare_reports.py b/reports/compare_reports.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..39f1dba --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/compare_reports.py @@ -0,0 +1,281 @@ +"""Compare backtest report JSONs side by side. + +Reads every backtest-*.json in this folder and shows one table of runs across +all of them, so a strategy can be compared across reports (or reports against +each other) without hand-diffing JSON. Highlights the best row for the chosen +metric. Stdlib only (tkinter) — run it with any Python 3: + + python reports/compare_reports.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import glob +import json +import os +import tkinter as tk +from tkinter import ttk + +HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) + +# Each report section exposes the same portfolio metrics; only the key naming +# the run (and whether it has lookbacks) differs. +SECTIONS = { + "Portfolio monitor (prod strategies)": { + "path": ("portfolio_monitor", "runs"), + "name_key": "strategy", + "lookbacks": True, + }, + "Entry variants": { + "path": ("strategy_variants", "variants"), + "name_key": "variant", + "lookbacks": False, + }, + "Exit policies": { + "path": ("exit_policy_variants", "variants"), + "name_key": "exit_policy", + "lookbacks": False, + }, + "Portfolio sim (policies)": { + "path": ("portfolio_sim", "policies"), + "name_key": "policy", + "lookbacks": False, + }, +} + +# label, json key, format, higher_is_better (None = not rankable) +COLUMNS = [ + ("Report", "_report", "{}", None), + ("Run", "_name", "{}", None), + ("Lookback", "_lookback", "{}", None), + ("CAGR %", "cagr_pct", "{:+.1f}", True), + ("Max DD %", "max_drawdown_pct", "-{:.1f}", False), + ("Sharpe", "sharpe", "{:.2f}", True), + ("Total ret %", "total_return_pct", "{:+.1f}", True), + ("SPY %", "spy_return_pct", "{:+.1f}", None), + ("Trades", "trades", "{:.0f}", None), + ("Win %", "win_rate", "{:.1f}", True), + ("Hold d", "avg_hold_days", "{:.1f}", None), +] +RANKABLE = [c[0] for c in COLUMNS if c[3] is not None] + + +def load_reports() -> list[dict]: + reports = [] + for path in sorted(glob.glob(os.path.join(HERE, "backtest-*.json"))): + try: + with open(path, encoding="utf-8") as fh: + data = json.load(fh) + except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError) as exc: + print(f"skipping {os.path.basename(path)}: {exc}") + continue + name = os.path.basename(path)[len("backtest-") : -len(".json")] + reports.append({ + "name": name, + "data": data, + "generated": (data.get("generated_at") or "")[:16].replace("T", " "), + "qualified": data.get("qualified"), + }) + return reports + + +def rows_for(report: dict, section: str) -> list[dict]: + """Flatten one report's section into rows, tagging report/run/lookback.""" + cfg = SECTIONS[section] + top, inner = cfg["path"] + block = report["data"].get(top) or {} + raw = block.get(inner) or [] + rows = [] + for item in raw: + if not isinstance(item, dict): + continue + row = dict(item) + row["_report"] = report["name"] + row["_name"] = item.get(cfg["name_key"]) or "?" + row["_lookback"] = item.get("lookback") or "-" + row["_production"] = bool(item.get("is_production")) + rows.append(row) + return rows + + +class App: + def __init__(self, root: tk.Tk, reports: list[dict]) -> None: + self.root = root + self.reports = reports + self.rows: list[dict] = [] + root.title("Backtest report comparison") + root.geometry("1250x680") + + controls = ttk.Frame(root, padding=8) + controls.pack(fill="x") + + ttk.Label(controls, text="Section").pack(side="left") + self.section = ttk.Combobox( + controls, values=list(SECTIONS), state="readonly", width=32 + ) + self.section.current(0) + self.section.pack(side="left", padx=(4, 14)) + self.section.bind("<>", lambda _e: self.on_section()) + + ttk.Label(controls, text="Lookback").pack(side="left") + self.lookback = ttk.Combobox(controls, state="readonly", width=10) + self.lookback.pack(side="left", padx=(4, 14)) + self.lookback.bind("<>", lambda _e: self.refresh()) + + ttk.Label(controls, text="Best by").pack(side="left") + self.metric = ttk.Combobox( + controls, values=RANKABLE, state="readonly", width=12 + ) + self.metric.set("Sharpe") + self.metric.pack(side="left", padx=(4, 14)) + self.metric.bind("<>", lambda _e: self.refresh()) + + body = ttk.Frame(root, padding=(8, 0)) + body.pack(fill="both", expand=True) + + left = ttk.Frame(body) + left.pack(side="left", fill="y", padx=(0, 8)) + ttk.Label(left, text="Reports (select to filter)").pack(anchor="w") + self.report_list = tk.Listbox( + left, selectmode="extended", width=34, height=24, exportselection=False + ) + for rep in self.reports: + label = f"{rep['name']} ({rep['generated'][5:]}" + label += f", q={rep['qualified']})" if rep["qualified"] else ")" + self.report_list.insert("end", label) + self.report_list.select_set(0, "end") + self.report_list.pack(fill="y", expand=True) + self.report_list.bind("<>", lambda _e: self.refresh()) + + headers = [c[0] for c in COLUMNS] + self.tree = ttk.Treeview(body, columns=headers, show="headings") + for label, _key, _fmt, _hib in COLUMNS: + self.tree.heading( + label, text=label, command=lambda c=label: self.sort_by(c) + ) + width = 190 if label == "Run" else (150 if label == "Report" else 82) + self.tree.column(label, width=width, anchor="w" if width > 100 else "e") + scroll = ttk.Scrollbar(body, orient="vertical", command=self.tree.yview) + self.tree.configure(yscrollcommand=scroll.set) + self.tree.pack(side="left", fill="both", expand=True) + scroll.pack(side="left", fill="y") + + self.tree.tag_configure("best", background="#c8e6c9") + self.tree.tag_configure("prod", font=("TkDefaultFont", 9, "bold")) + + self.status = ttk.Label(root, padding=8, anchor="w") + self.status.pack(fill="x") + + self.sort_col: str | None = None + self.sort_desc = True + self.on_section() + + def selected_reports(self) -> list[dict]: + picked = self.report_list.curselection() + return [self.reports[i] for i in picked] if picked else self.reports + + def on_section(self) -> None: + cfg = SECTIONS[self.section.get()] + if cfg["lookbacks"]: + seen: list[str] = [] + for rep in self.reports: + for row in rows_for(rep, self.section.get()): + if row["_lookback"] not in seen: + seen.append(row["_lookback"]) + self.lookback.configure(values=["(all rows)"] + seen, state="readonly") + self.lookback.set("all" if "all" in seen else "(all rows)") + else: + self.lookback.configure(values=["(n/a)"], state="disabled") + self.lookback.set("(n/a)") + self.sort_col = None + self.refresh() + + def refresh(self) -> None: + section = self.section.get() + rows: list[dict] = [] + missing: list[str] = [] + for rep in self.selected_reports(): + found = rows_for(rep, section) + if not found: + missing.append(rep["name"]) + rows.extend(found) + + chosen = self.lookback.get() + if SECTIONS[section]["lookbacks"] and chosen not in ("(all rows)", "(n/a)"): + rows = [r for r in rows if r["_lookback"] == chosen] + + metric_label = self.metric.get() + key, higher = next( + (c[1], c[3]) for c in COLUMNS if c[0] == metric_label + ) + ranked = [r for r in rows if isinstance(r.get(key), (int, float))] + best = None + if ranked: + best = (max if higher else min)(ranked, key=lambda r: r[key]) + + sort_col = self.sort_col or metric_label + sort_key, sort_hib = next( + (c[1], c[3]) for c in COLUMNS if c[0] == sort_col + ) + if self.sort_col is None: + # Default order: best value first for the chosen metric. + reverse = bool(higher) + else: + reverse = self.sort_desc + + def sort_value(row: dict): + val = row.get(sort_key) + if isinstance(val, (int, float)): + return (1, val, "") + return (0, 0.0, str(val or "")) + + rows.sort(key=sort_value, reverse=reverse) + + self.tree.delete(*self.tree.get_children()) + for row in rows: + values = [] + for label, k, fmt, _hib in COLUMNS: + val = row.get(k) + if isinstance(val, (int, float)): + values.append(fmt.format(val)) + else: + values.append("-" if val in (None, "") else str(val)) + tags = [] + if best is not None and row is best: + tags.append("best") + if row.get("_production"): + tags.append("prod") + self.tree.insert("", "end", values=values, tags=tags) + + self.rows = rows + parts = [f"{len(rows)} runs from {len(self.selected_reports())} report(s)"] + if best is not None: + parts.append( + f"best {metric_label}: {best['_name']} " + f"({best['_report']}) = {best[key]:.2f}" + ) + if missing: + parts.append(f"no '{section}' data in: {', '.join(missing)}") + parts.append("bold = production row") + self.status.configure(text=" | ".join(parts)) + + def sort_by(self, column: str) -> None: + if self.sort_col == column: + self.sort_desc = not self.sort_desc + else: + self.sort_col = column + self.sort_desc = True + self.refresh() + + +def main() -> None: + reports = load_reports() + if not reports: + raise SystemExit(f"No backtest-*.json found in {HERE}") + root = tk.Tk() + App(root, reports) + root.mainloop() + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()