replace EV activation gate with cross-sectional 12-1 momentum ranking
The 5-year backtest confirmed the EV gate adds negative value (high threshold = worst expectancy) and that 12-1 month momentum is the one price signal with a plausible, right-signed cross-sectional IC (~0.05). So "qualified" now means: clears the R:R + confidence floors AND the ticker ranks in the top `min_momentum_percentile` of the universe by 12-1 momentum that week. - qualification.py: drop expected_value_r / the EV gate; add a momentum-percentile gate (duck-typed `momentum_percentile`, only enforced when attached + threshold set, else defers to floors). Mirrored in frontend qualification.ts. - activation config/schema: min_expected_value -> min_momentum_percentile (default 80 = top quintile). ActivationSettings, DashboardPage (ranks/【shows】 momentum instead of EV), and the BacktestPanel sweep follow. - backtest: rank each ISO week's universe by 12-1 momentum, assign a percentile, and qualify the top slice; the sweep now sweeps the percentile cutoff. Also offload the backtest's per-ticker compute to a worker thread so the heavy ~5y run no longer blocks the API event loop (the "backend offline" flicker). Production setups don't carry momentum_percentile yet — wiring the scanner to attach it (a universe momentum-rank step) is the next step; until then the live gate defers to floors while the backtest measures the momentum selection. 330 backend tests pass; frontend build clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ class TickerUniverseUpdate(BaseModel):
|
||||
|
||||
class ActivationConfigUpdate(BaseModel):
|
||||
"""Activation gate: what counts as an actionable signal."""
|
||||
min_expected_value: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=-1, le=10)
|
||||
min_momentum_percentile: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
|
||||
min_rr: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0)
|
||||
min_confidence: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
|
||||
min_target_probability: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user