Add full-period S/R production comparison

docs/research/sr-levels-and-exits.md

@@ -620,6 +620,28 @@ two-arm residual matrix therefore holds the clean detector and range factor fixe
 .venv/bin/python scripts/run_sr_v2_matrix.py residual --workers 14
 ```
 
+### Full-period production comparison
+
+After freezing `rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary`, run it beside a
+fresh `production_control` over the complete snapshot with identical portfolio
+and exit settings:
+
+```bash
+.venv/bin/python scripts/run_sr_v2_matrix.py full --workers 14
+```
+
+The command deliberately supplies neither `--entry-start` nor `--entry-end`.
+It writes both audited reports plus a paired cohort comparison:
+
+- `reports/backtest-sr-full-production_control.json`
+- `reports/backtest-sr-full-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json`
+- `reports/sr-full-production-vs-candidate-cohorts.csv`
+- `reports/sr-full-production-vs-candidate-comparison.json`
+
+This is an apples-to-apples full-history diagnostic against the current live
+production path. It is not a new untouched holdout because the post-2024 data
+was already inspected while isolating the range factor.
+
 The post-2024 window has been opened and is now analysis data, not a valid final
 promotion holdout. These arms can isolate mechanism, but neither may ship without
 new future data or a separately pre-registered walk-forward protocol.

reports/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+# Backtest report index
+
+Reports dated 2026-07-11 or earlier are the historical production research
+record and are intentionally left untouched.
+
+The retained 2026-07-12/13 S/R reports mark a decision or provide the matching
+control for one:
+
+- The initial full-period clean-detector regression,
+  `backtest-20260712-sr-detector-rewrite.json`, remains a local-only report and
+  is intentionally not added to version control.
+- `backtest-sr-v2-train-production_control.json`: pre-July-2024 production
+  control shared by the detector matrices.
+- `backtest-sr-v2-train-rewrite.json` and
+  `backtest-sr-v2-train-rewrite_legacy_primary.json`: isolate detector geometry
+  from the primary-target selector.
+- `backtest-sr-v2-train-rr_aligned_control.json` and
+  `backtest-sr-v2-validation-rr_aligned_control.json`: show why primary target
+  selection must not simply inherit the 2.0 activation floor.
+- `backtest-sr-traffic-train-legacy_traffic_grid_only.json`: reproduces the
+  accidental legacy grid edge.
+- `backtest-sr-traffic-train-legacy_range_grid_neutral.json`: proves that the
+  grid effect does not require volume or touch strength.
+- `backtest-sr-v2-validation-production_control.json` and
+  `backtest-sr-v2-validation-legacy_range_grid_neutral.json`: the post-2024
+  control and failed range-grid replication. The compact paired result remains
+  in `sr-v2-validation-comparison.json` and `sr-v2-validation-cohorts.csv`.
+- `backtest-sr-range-factor-train-production_range504.json` and
+  `backtest-sr-range-factor-train-rewrite_range504_legacy_primary.json`: isolate
+  the explicit 504-day multiplicative-range factor.
+- `backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json`
+  and `backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_primary2.json`:
+  the final target-source and primary-floor decision.
+
+The full-period production comparison writes:
+
+- `backtest-sr-full-production_control.json`
+- `backtest-sr-full-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json`
+- `sr-full-production-vs-candidate-comparison.json`
+- `sr-full-production-vs-candidate-cohorts.csv`
+
+Those outputs should be retained as the final decision point for this research
+branch.

scripts/run_sr_v2_matrix.py

@@ -42,6 +42,10 @@ RANGE_RESIDUAL_ARMS = (
     "rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary",
     "rewrite_range504_structural_primary2",
 )
+FULL_PERIOD_ARMS = (
+    "production_control",
+    "rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary",
+)
 
 
 def _add_common(parser: argparse.ArgumentParser) -> None:
@@ -91,6 +95,11 @@ def _args() -> argparse.Namespace:
         default=None,
         help="Run one residual target-geometry arm without repeating the pair.",
     )
+    full = commands.add_parser(
+        "full",
+        help="Run current production and the frozen candidate over the full snapshot.",
+    )
+    _add_common(full)
     validate = commands.add_parser(
         "validate",
         help="Run production control and one locked arm from 2024-07-01.",
@@ -105,23 +114,27 @@ def _run_arm(
     snapshot: str,
     workers: int,
     *,
-    entry_flag: str,
-    entry_date: str,
+    entry_flag: str | None = None,
+    entry_date: str | None = None,
     output: Path,
 ) -> None:
     print(f"Running S/R arm: {arm}", flush=True)
-    subprocess.run(
-        [
+    command = [
         sys.executable,
         str(RUNNER),
         snapshot,
         "--workers", str(workers),
         "--allow-spawn",
         "--sr-variant", arm,
-            entry_flag, entry_date,
         "--sr-audit",
         "--out", str(output),
-        ],
+    ]
+    if entry_flag is not None and entry_date is not None:
+        command.extend((entry_flag, entry_date))
+    elif entry_flag is not None or entry_date is not None:
+        raise ValueError("entry_flag and entry_date must be provided together")
+    subprocess.run(
+        command,
         cwd=ROOT,
         check=True,
     )
@@ -171,6 +184,32 @@ def _validate(args: argparse.Namespace) -> None:
     )
 
 
+def _full(args: argparse.Namespace) -> None:
+    reports: dict[str, Path] = {}
+    for arm in FULL_PERIOD_ARMS:
+        output = ROOT / "reports" / f"backtest-sr-full-{arm}.json"
+        reports[arm] = output
+        _run_arm(
+            arm,
+            args.snapshot,
+            args.workers,
+            output=output,
+        )
+    subprocess.run(
+        [
+            sys.executable,
+            str(COMPARE),
+            str(reports["production_control"]),
+            str(reports["rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary"]),
+            "--out-csv", str(ROOT / "reports" / "sr-full-production-vs-candidate-cohorts.csv"),
+            "--out-json", str(ROOT / "reports" / "sr-full-production-vs-candidate-comparison.json"),
+        ],
+        cwd=ROOT,
+        check=True,
+    )
+    print("Full-period production comparison complete.")
+
+
 def main() -> None:
     args = _args()
     if args.command == "train":
@@ -184,6 +223,8 @@ def main() -> None:
     elif args.command == "residual":
         arms = (args.only_arm,) if args.only_arm else RANGE_RESIDUAL_ARMS
         _train(args, arms, "backtest-sr-range-residual-train")
+    elif args.command == "full":
+        _full(args)
     else:
         _validate(args)