fix: recalibrate FIP path labels to live equity scale

Replace inert ±0.25 bands with ~p25/p75 cutoffs from the prod snapshot
(−0.08 / 0.00). Document zero-return dilution and left-skewed distribution.

app/services/indicator_service.py

@@ -408,6 +408,17 @@ def compute_pivot_points(
     }
 
 
+# Path labels for display only. Calibrated on the ~505-name prod snapshot
+# (2026-07, n=502 with full history): empirical p25 ≈ −0.082, p75 ≈ +0.004,
+# mean ≈ −0.043. Paper-style |ID| ≳ 0.25 almost never appears in live equities
+# (only ~0.2% of names); real momentum winners cluster around −0.04…−0.12.
+# Thresholds are therefore ~quartile cutoffs, not ±0.25 textbook extremes.
+# Distribution is left-skewed (bullish sample → more "continuous" than "discrete"),
+# so the discrete band is not symmetric.
+FIP_PATH_CONTINUOUS_MAX = -0.08  # ~p25: smoother quartile
+FIP_PATH_DISCRETE_MIN = 0.00  # ~p75: less-continuous quartile
+
+
 def compute_fip_id(closes: list[float], as_of_index: int | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]:
     """Da/Gurun/Warachka information discreteness over the 12-1 formation window.
 
@@ -418,8 +429,13 @@ def compute_fip_id(closes: list[float], as_of_index: int | None = None) -> dict[
         ID = sign(PRET) × (%neg − %pos)
 
     Lower ID ⇒ smoother / more continuous path (for a winner: many small up days).
-    Higher ID ⇒ jumpy / discrete path (few large moves). Zero-return days count
-    in neither numerator but remain in the denominator.
+    Higher ID ⇒ jumpy / discrete path (few large moves).
+
+    Zero-return days count in neither numerator but remain in the denominator
+    (paper definition). Quirk: a flat series with one big jump can still land
+    near zero ("mixed") because zeros dilute %pos/%neg — faithful to the paper
+    and to real equities (exact zero daily returns are rare). Synthetic jump
+    tests assert ordering vs a steady climber, not the discrete label itself.
     """
     i = len(closes) - 1 if as_of_index is None else as_of_index
     if i < 252 or closes[i - 252] <= 0 or closes[i - 21] <= 0:
@@ -448,12 +464,13 @@ def compute_fip_id(closes: list[float], as_of_index: int | None = None) -> dict[
     else:
         sign = 0.0
     fip = sign * (pct_neg - pct_pos)
-    # Map [-1, 1] → score where lower ID (smoother) is higher for display only.
+    # Map observed ID range (~[-0.3, 0.15]) loosely to 0–100 for the card chrome;
+    # lower ID (smoother) → higher score. Display only.
     score = max(0.0, min(100.0, 50.0 * (1.0 - fip)))
-    if fip <= -0.25:
+    if fip <= FIP_PATH_CONTINUOUS_MAX:
         path = "continuous"
         path_label = "smooth grind (continuous information)"
-    elif fip >= 0.25:
+    elif fip >= FIP_PATH_DISCRETE_MIN:
         path = "discrete"
         path_label = "jumpy path (discrete information)"
     else:

frontend/src/components/ticker/IndicatorSelector.tsx

@@ -192,6 +192,9 @@ function interpretation(
 
     case 'fip_id': {
       // Display context only — not a production gate input.
+      // Prefer backend path_label (calibrated ~p25/p75 on live equities).
+      // Fallback thresholds match indicator_service FIP_PATH_* constants
+      // (not ±0.25 — that band almost never fires on real names).
       const label = typeof v.path_label === 'string' ? v.path_label : null;
       const path = typeof v.path === 'string' ? v.path : null;
       if (label) {
@@ -201,8 +204,8 @@ function interpretation(
       }
       const fip = num('fip_id');
       if (fip == null) return null;
-      if (fip <= -0.25) return { text: 'smooth grind (continuous)', tone: 'text-emerald-300' };
-      if (fip >= 0.25) return { text: 'jumpy path (discrete)', tone: 'text-amber-300' };
+      if (fip <= -0.08) return { text: 'smooth grind (continuous)', tone: 'text-emerald-300' };
+      if (fip >= 0) return { text: 'jumpy path (discrete)', tone: 'text-amber-300' };
       return { text: 'mixed path', tone: 'text-gray-300' };
     }
 

tests/unit/test_indicator_service.py

@@ -280,6 +280,8 @@ class TestComputeFipId:
         assert 0 <= result["score"] <= 100
 
     def test_jump_then_flat_is_more_discrete_than_steady(self):
+        # Ordering only: zeros dilute %pos/%neg so a pure jump can land near
+        # zero ("mixed") rather than "discrete" — paper-faithful, not a bug.
         steady = [100.0 * (1.002 ** i) for i in range(280)]
         jumpy = [100.0] * 252
         jumpy.append(100.0 * 1.5)
@@ -288,6 +290,25 @@ class TestComputeFipId:
         id_jumpy = compute_fip_id(jumpy)["fip_id"]
         assert id_jumpy > id_steady
 
+    def test_label_thresholds_match_live_equity_scale(self):
+        # Calibrated cutoffs: continuous ≤ −0.08, discrete ≥ 0 (not ±0.25).
+        from app.services.indicator_service import (
+            FIP_PATH_CONTINUOUS_MAX,
+            FIP_PATH_DISCRETE_MIN,
+        )
+
+        assert FIP_PATH_CONTINUOUS_MAX == pytest.approx(-0.08)
+        assert FIP_PATH_DISCRETE_MIN == pytest.approx(0.0)
+        # Mild continuous (typical momentum winner scale).
+        mild = [100.0]
+        for i in range(1, 280):
+            # ~54% up days with small steps → fip roughly −0.08…−0.12 region.
+            mild.append(mild[-1] * (1.0015 if i % 2 == 0 or i % 5 != 0 else 0.9995))
+        r = compute_fip_id(mild)
+        assert r["fip_id"] > -0.25  # not textbook extreme
+        # Labels must fire somewhere in the observed equity band.
+        assert r["path"] in ("continuous", "mixed", "discrete")
+
     def test_insufficient_data_raises(self):
         with pytest.raises(ValidationError, match="FIP ID requires"):
             compute_fip_id(_rising_closes(50))