Fix stale copy, dedupe Exit columns, document local report review
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Follow-ups from review of the Track Record slim:

- BacktestPanel: drop the stale "tracking check" sentence from the "How this is
  measured" explainer — that check moved to the maintenance disclosure last
  commit, so it no longer describes anything in this block.
- MyTradesPanel: rename the two identically-labelled "Exit" columns to "Exit Px"
  (exit price) and "Reason" (close_reason) so they're not confusable.
- README: add "Reading a local backtest report" under Local Backtest Snapshots —
  a section->decision map for reports/backtest-*.json. The strategy-tuning tables
  removed from the deployed page (sweep, gate_ablation, time_exit_sweep,
  signal_eval, strategy_variants) now live only in the local report, so this
  keeps "research lives local" from meaning the decision knowledge evaporates.

tsc -b && vite build pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-07-04 10:01:59 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 4.8
parent 2a4bdd16a8
commit ce6035ee3c
3 changed files with 25 additions and 4 deletions
+22
View File
@@ -307,6 +307,28 @@ metrics. Keep the SSH tunnel open only while creating the snapshot; the backtest
run itself is local/offline. `backtest_snapshots/` and generated backtest reports run itself is local/offline. `backtest_snapshots/` and generated backtest reports
are git-ignored. are git-ignored.
### Reading a local backtest report
The deployed **Signals → Track Record** page is deliberately trimmed to validation
(portfolio monitor vs SPY, realized paper trades) and how-to-trade. The
strategy-tuning tables that used to live there now live **only** in the local
report — inspect these `reports/backtest-<timestamp>.json` sections and produce the
matching decision. Every change still goes through the factor harness first (see
**The iron rule for strategy changes** above).
| Report section | What to read | Decision it drives |
|---|---|---|
| `overall_qualified` vs `overall_all` | Is qualified net expectancy above the all-setups baseline? | Sanity — is the gate adding anything at all |
| `sweep` | Net avg R and trade count at each residual-momentum cutoff | Where to set the momentum percentile (Admin → Settings → Activation) |
| `gate_ablation` | Net expectancy with each floor removed | Drop a floor only if removing it doesn't hurt net expectancy |
| `time_exit_sweep` | Net avg R / net R-per-day by hold length | Whether a fixed time exit beats the promoted ATR trail |
| `portfolio_monitor`, `portfolio_sim`, `strategy_variants` | CAGR, Sharpe, max drawdown, per-year returns | Promote a strategy only if it beats the current baseline on CAGR/Sharpe/DD |
| `signal_eval` | Mean IC, t-stat, IC>0 %, `reliable` | Iron rule: wire a new factor in only if \|IC\| ≳ 0.03 with a consistent sign and `reliable: true` |
| `recommendation`, `research_recommendation` | The report's own headline read | A starting point, not a substitute for the sections above |
`recommendation` is the one section surfaced on the deployed page ("What this
backtest recommends"); everything else in this table is intentionally local-only.
## Environment Variables ## Environment Variables
Configure in `.env` (copy from `.env.example`): Configure in `.env` (copy from `.env.example`):
@@ -180,8 +180,7 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
rebuilt using only data up to that day (no lookahead) and the following ~30 trading days decide rebuilt using only data up to that day (no lookahead) and the following ~30 trading days decide
its outcome then simulates one capital-constrained book against the S&P 500. Sentiment and its outcome then simulates one capital-constrained book against the S&P 500. Sentiment and
fundamentals are held neutral (no point-in-time history). ~6 months is roughly one market regime, fundamentals are held neutral (no point-in-time history). ~6 months is roughly one market regime,
so read it as directional. The <em>tracking</em> check compares the backtest's qualified so read it as directional.
expectancy with what live qualified setups have actually realized once matured.
</p> </p>
</Disclosure> </Disclosure>
<Button onClick={() => run.mutate()} loading={run.isPending} className="shrink-0"> <Button onClick={() => run.mutate()} loading={run.isPending} className="shrink-0">
@@ -93,11 +93,11 @@ export function MyTradesPanel() {
<th className="px-4 py-2.5">Ticker</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Ticker</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5">Dir</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Dir</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Entry</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Entry</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Exit</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Exit Px</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">P&L</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">P&L</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">R</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">R</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Alpha</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Alpha</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5">Exit</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Reason</th>
<th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Closed</th> <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Closed</th>
</tr> </tr>
</thead> </thead>