Primary target: probability floor stops lottery headlines

A setup's primary target could carry a ~3% probability: the picker
chose the most likely target among those with R:R >= 1.5, and after a
run-up that pool can contain only far "lottery" levels (the near,
likely levels fail the R:R floor). The lottery target's inflated R:R
then became the setup's headline and passed the activation gate's
min_rr floor - the gate's probability check only requires a value to
exist.

Fix, no new tuning knobs: the primary must clear BOTH floors
(R:R >= 1.5 AND probability >= 20%). When nothing does, fall back to
the most likely target overall, so the headline carries an honest low
R:R and the gate rejects the setup on real numbers instead of being
gamed by an unreachable target.

Deliberately NOT pure EV-maximization (p*RR): the probability model
adds strength/alignment bonuses as flat percentage points, so EV
arithmetic would scale those bonuses by (RR+1) and systematically
favor far targets on aligned setups - the same lottery bias through
the back door.

Shared by production (enhance_trade_setup) and the backtest simulator,
so backtest comparisons stay apples-to-apples. Unit tests pin the
degenerate case; full unit suite green (497 passed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/test_recommendation_service.py

@@ -128,6 +128,32 @@ def test_primary_target_none_when_empty():
     assert _select_primary_target([]) is None
 
 
+def test_primary_target_never_headlines_a_lottery():
+    # After a run-up: the only target clearing the R:R floor is a near-impossible
+    # far level. The primary must NOT be that lottery — fall back to the most
+    # likely target overall, so the headline R:R is honest (and the activation
+    # gate rejects the setup on min_rr instead of being gamed).
+    targets = [
+        {"price": 101.0, "rr_ratio": 0.9, "probability": 55.0},   # likely, no asymmetry
+        {"price": 140.0, "rr_ratio": 5.0, "probability": 3.0},    # asymmetric lottery
+    ]
+    primary = _select_primary_target(targets)
+    assert primary is not None
+    assert primary["price"] == 101.0
+
+
+def test_primary_target_requires_probability_floor():
+    # A worthwhile-R:R target below the probability floor loses to one that
+    # clears both floors, even at lower R:R.
+    targets = [
+        {"price": 130.0, "rr_ratio": 4.0, "probability": 12.0},   # asymmetric but unlikely
+        {"price": 112.0, "rr_ratio": 1.8, "probability": 38.0},   # clears both floors ← primary
+    ]
+    primary = _select_primary_target(targets)
+    assert primary is not None
+    assert primary["price"] == 112.0
+
+
 def test_detects_sentiment_technical_conflict():
     conflicts = signal_conflict_detector.detect_conflicts(
         dimension_scores={"technical": 72.0, "momentum": 55.0, "fundamental": 50.0},