add market-regime guard (SPY trend) — inform + warn

New market_regime_service computes a benchmark (SPY) trend from its 50/200-day
SMAs, cached in a SystemSetting and refreshed by a nightly job; GET /market/regime
exposes it. Dashboard shows a regime banner; setup cards flag a counter-trend
caution when a setup fights the regime (LONG in a bearish market / SHORT in a
bullish one). Informational only — nothing is suppressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/test_market_regime_service.py

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+"""Tests for the market-regime computation."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from app.services.market_regime_service import compute_regime
+
+
+def _series(value: float, n: int = 250) -> list[float]:
+    return [value] * n
+
+
+def test_unknown_without_history():
+    assert compute_regime([])["label"] == "unknown"
+    assert compute_regime([100.0] * 10)["label"] == "unknown"  # < 50 bars
+
+
+def test_bullish_uptrend():
+    # Rising series: price > sma50 > sma200
+    closes = [100.0 + i * 0.5 for i in range(250)]
+    r = compute_regime(closes)
+    assert r["label"] == "bullish"
+    assert r["price"] > r["sma200"]
+
+
+def test_bearish_downtrend():
+    closes = [300.0 - i * 0.5 for i in range(250)]
+    r = compute_regime(closes)
+    assert r["label"] == "bearish"
+    assert r["price"] < r["sma200"]
+
+
+def test_neutral_when_mixed():
+    # Flat for 200 then a dip: price below sma200 but 50 still ~ above → not clean bear
+    closes = [100.0] * 200 + [101.0] * 30 + [99.5] * 20
+    r = compute_regime(closes)
+    assert r["label"] in {"neutral", "bullish", "bearish"}  # defined, not crashing
+    assert "sma50" in r and "sma200" in r
+
+
+def test_fifty_day_fallback():
+    # 60 bars: no 200-day, falls back to 50-day
+    closes = [100.0 + i for i in range(60)]
+    r = compute_regime(closes)
+    assert r["label"] == "bullish"
+    assert r["sma200"] is None

tests/unit/test_scheduler.py

@@ -82,6 +82,7 @@ class TestConfigureScheduler:
             "ticker_universe_sync",
             "outcome_evaluator",
             "alerts",
+            "market_regime",
         }
 
     def test_configure_is_idempotent(self):
@@ -94,6 +95,7 @@ class TestConfigureScheduler:
             "alerts",
             "data_collector",
             "fundamental_collector",
+            "market_regime",
             "outcome_evaluator",
             "rr_scanner",
             "sentiment_collector",