add market-regime guard (SPY trend) — inform + warn

New market_regime_service computes a benchmark (SPY) trend from its 50/200-day
SMAs, cached in a SystemSetting and refreshed by a nightly job; GET /market/regime
exposes it. Dashboard shows a regime banner; setup cards flag a counter-trend
caution when a setup fights the regime (LONG in a bearish market / SHORT in a
bullish one). Informational only — nothing is suppressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/ticker/RecommendationPanel.tsx

@@ -3,6 +3,9 @@ import { formatPrice, formatPercent } from '../../lib/format';
 import { recommendationActionDirection, recommendationActionLabel } from '../../lib/recommendation';
 import { useRiskSettings, type RiskSettings } from '../../hooks/useRiskSettings';
 import { positionSize } from '../../lib/position';
+import { useMarketRegime } from '../../hooks/useMarketRegime';
+import { isCounterTrend } from '../../lib/regime';
+import type { MarketRegime } from '../../lib/types';
 
 interface RecommendationPanelProps {
   symbol: string;
@@ -85,7 +88,7 @@ function TargetTable({ setup }: { setup: TradeSetup }) {
   );
 }
 
-function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup; action?: TradeSetup['recommended_action']; currentPrice?: number; risk: RiskSettings }) {
+function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk, regime }: { setup?: TradeSetup; action?: TradeSetup['recommended_action']; currentPrice?: number; risk: RiskSettings; regime?: MarketRegime }) {
   if (!setup) {
     return (
       <div className="glass-sm p-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
@@ -97,6 +100,7 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup;
   const recommended = isRecommended(setup, action);
   const drift = entryDrift(setup, currentPrice);
   const sizing = positionSize(risk.accountSize, risk.riskPct, setup.entry_price, setup.stop_loss);
+  const counterTrend = regime ? isCounterTrend(setup.direction, regime.label) : false;
 
   return (
     <div
@@ -114,6 +118,13 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup;
         <p className="text-[11px] text-amber-400">Alternative setup (ticker bias currently favors the opposite direction).</p>
       )}
 
+      {counterTrend && regime && (
+        <p className="text-[11px] text-amber-400">
+          ⚠ Counter-trend: {setup.direction.toUpperCase()} against a {regime.label} market
+          ({regime.benchmark ?? 'SPY'}). Lower odds — size down or wait for confirmation.
+        </p>
+      )}
+
       {drift && drift.status === 'invalidated' && (
         <p className="text-[11px] text-red-400">
           ⚠ Price ({formatPrice(currentPrice!)}) is past the stop — this setup is invalidated.
@@ -206,6 +217,7 @@ function RiskSettingsBar({ risk, update }: { risk: RiskSettings; update: (p: Par
 
 export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPrice }: RecommendationPanelProps) {
   const { settings: risk, update: updateRisk } = useRiskSettings();
+  const regime = useMarketRegime().data;
   const summary = longSetup?.recommendation_summary ?? shortSetup?.recommendation_summary;
   const action = (summary?.action ?? 'NEUTRAL') as TradeSetup['recommended_action'];
   const preferredDirection = recommendationActionDirection(action);
@@ -251,7 +263,7 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
 
         {preferredDirection !== 'neutral' && preferredSetup ? (
           <div className="space-y-3">
-            <SetupCard setup={preferredSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+            <SetupCard setup={preferredSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
 
             {alternativeSetup && (
               <details className="glass-sm p-3">
@@ -259,15 +271,15 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
                   Alternative scenario ({alternativeSetup.direction.toUpperCase()})
                 </summary>
                 <div className="mt-3">
-                  <SetupCard setup={alternativeSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+                  <SetupCard setup={alternativeSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
                 </div>
               </details>
             )}
           </div>
         ) : (
           <div className="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
-            <SetupCard setup={longSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
-            <SetupCard setup={shortSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+            <SetupCard setup={longSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
+            <SetupCard setup={shortSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
           </div>
         )}
       </div>